I thought I’d take a quick spin through the top five—all of home, but possibly one, should be expected to take the cash and sit tight over the winter.
Years left: 2040: $25.3M, 2041 & 2042: Vesting options at $37.3M
We all know the deal, Louisville signed the deal almost salivating over the idea that the long0time superstar would drop another 3+ WAR season, and bolt for another team, thereby generating a draft pick in the vacuum. Alas, Martinez showed his age, and now has the opportunity to accept $25.3M for next year. While this does represent an $6M pay cut, one suspects that any self-respecting agent with a Mercedes payment to make will talk truth to Martinez, and that will be that.
Looking at two additional vesting options left on the deal, you can see a game theory wherein if Martinez had posted that 3+, he might choose to leave. He’s 34, after all. There is zero chance he’d ever get those vesting years (and he knows it). If he was pulling 3+ WAR, you could see him getting something more attractive than 1 year at $25M and whatever free agent check he’d get at 35 years old. I could have seen something in the range of, say, $15M for three.
Alas, that’s not to be.
Projection: Martinez executes the option and stays in Louisville
Years left: 2040: $25.5M, 2041 & 2042: Vesting options at $25.5M
As I’ve said before, I think the real issue with Mauro Flores is that he’s in the wrong park. The Hustler’s homer-friendly confines is counter to everything Flores stands for.
That said, he is also getting old, and at $25M a year, he’s highly overpaid, which means there are some similarities in his situation and Martinez’s—basically that his rugged performance this year, combined with his age, makes it questionable he’ll get enough on the free market to be worth bypassing his last guaranteed $25M season. Making the matter more complex, Flores could well find himself pitching well enough that new GM Brett Schroder has to contemplate letting him vest by starting more than 25 games.
So, from Flores’s point of view, the decision to opt-out means he leaves a guaranteed $25M on the table, and a lottery ticket’s chance of at least one $25M vested season. On the flipside, going free agent means he gives teams a chance to hand is 33-year-old body one of those three-year, $15M+ deals I just talked about. The world is, after all, desperate for pitching.
Projection: I could see it going both ways, but I suspect Flores stays in Vegas.
Years Left: 2040 & 2041: $18M each
It’s a sad state of affairs that sees Winson where he’s at. The bottom line is that his power and his ability draw walks means he’s still got a little value. Alas, $18M is not a little amount of money, and there’s two years worth of that not-a-little. So Winson’s decision tree is essentially “take the $36M pill or go free agent and get peanuts.” If we were to post this question as a poll anywhere online, I think it would draw unanimous agreement. I think Charm City’s only real hope of getting out of this deal is if Winson decides his 1.6WAR season was bad enough that he needs to go spend more time with his family. This is always possible, I suppose. I just wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
Projection: Winson opts in.
Years left: 2040: $22M, 2041: $21M, 2042: 18.5M
At 33 years old, Hernandez, who has been one of the league’s very best for years, is still recovering from a Tommy John surgery. I’d guess he might make it back in May—so he’ll miss spring training. Opting in puts him in line for $61M, plus whatever bonuses he might pick up. Opting out puts him on the market before he’s healed and proven he can pitch. I can’t imagine a scenario where a player and his representation would say “hey, I’mma gonna go get me some of that free agency.
This could still work out fine for Calgary. Hernandez was throwing one of his normal outstanding seasons when he got hurt. The main downside is the uncertainty of what they can expect from the aging vet as he rehabs.
Projection: Hernandez stays put.
Years left: 2040 & 2041: $20M each
Jon Mick can hit. Or, at least he could until last season’s toe stub of a .232.389/.429 year. His 28 homers were the worst he’s put up. Ever. His WAR was -1.0. Scouts say the swing is still there, though, and so fans and front office are together in wondering if 2039 was just one of those weird years that hits every so often.
The people who aren’t wondering about much right now are the guys representing Mick, because their advice will be the only advice that makes sense at all. Take the $40M that’s on the table for the next two seasons and have at it. Seriously, at Mick’s age and position, I can’t see him getting $40M even if he spreads it out over four or five years. Maybe that’s just me. We’ll see, though
Projection: Mick sticks with the cheese that brought him.
