One Reason Nashville Will Make the Playoffs

[RonCo]

All right, so the 10-Reasons posts were fun enough that I sat down to look at Nashville with an expectation of doing the same thing.

The team is sitting at 74-73 right now, after all—shooting for Brett’s first every season above .500, and a cool three games out of the wild card spot. The StatsPlus guys say the Goats have a 7% shot at a playoff slot, which this late in the season isn’t anything to sneeze at. So, yeah, let’s have some fun. The first thing I did was scan down the list of where Brett Golden’s team is in its statistical ranks…and… well, sheesh…I mean. This is not a particularly good team it seems. Tenth in the league in average, 13th in OBP. 11th in Slugging…yikes. A scan down the list shows a lot of numbers like that until we get to things like 4th in strikeouts and stolen bases. So, hmmm.

Suddenly my task felt daunting.

There are no reasons here why Nashville would make the playoffs.

Glancing over to the pitching register, you don’t find things a huge step better. I mean, maybe a small step for Tennessee-kind, but nothing really earth shattering. 8th in ERA, though 4th in the bullpen is hopeful. Third in hits allowed piques interest, especially when you see the team’s 1st in BABIP (which really should have told me something, but didn’t until a second later). Because, let’s face it, the staff FIP categories are not good. 7th in HRA, 10th in BB, 6th in strikeouts. Nothing that really says “contender.”

Until…

There we go.

Finally.

Thank the powers that control the universe, there is a reason the Goats make the playoffs.

Their Defensive Efficiency of .707 is #1 in the league, as is that Zone Rating of +18.2. That made me jump over to my pet fave, PAA charts, where I see Nashville firmly at #2 in the league, riding fully in the jet-stream vapors of Hawaii.

The fact is that the Goats infield, with Manuel Martinez at second base and Sam Wade at third, is a bit above average (despite Tu-fu Yong struggling at shortstop). But with Kidane Ata’s "+ a kajillion" ZR in center and Abdelwahab Kamade’s center fielder’s glove pushed over to right, the Goats outfield has been elite to the level that they’ve registered an eye-popping +13 PAA on line drives (through August).

So, yes, fans, I think we’ve found the Magic McGuffin. The Sorcerer’s Stone.

The Nashville offense is nearly offensive, and it’s pitching is milquetoast in the end. But if the arms can manage to keep the ball in the park, Nashville’s defense is arguably on par with the best in the world.

This finding is interesting, of course, because the question about the value of defense keeps coming up in different ways. ZR, PAA, range vs. error ratings. Whatever. We can quantify things only so far. But in the end, here’s a great example of a team who, with only two weeks left in the season, and while being pretty clearly bottom third offensively and bottom half defensively, is still hanging onto the dream of a post season appearance.

So, there you are: the value of defense, and the reason the Goats will make the playoffs.

[GoldenOne]

First, yes the offense has been killing me all year. Last season they were far, far better and the pitching, specifically the bullpen, stunk! With Deortez coming back from injury and a full year of Ata, there was reason to believe that the offense would at least be the same, in not maybe a little better than last year. Certainly there was little thought as to them being this much worse than last season. Wade has taken over at 2B as he has been slightly better than Martinez in the lineup and his defense there is better than Martinez as well making those defensive ratings even better.

The couple of call-ups are mainly there to spell Deortez in the late innings but have been providing some timely hitting as PHs.

Ahhh yes, but let's not forget those added trade deadline acquisitions to add to the mix! Medici is close to, if not straight up is, one of the best Closers in the BBA. His acquisition has moved the pretty-darn-good late inning guys to some earlier innings shortening that Pen even more, allowing those SPs to have a shorter leash with some comfort behind them.

And, dont forget about Mr. Newhouse himself! He's no slouch defensively and provides that extra spark at the top of the lineup. I forget who did the research on how often lead-off hitters were getting on base and then scoring, but the Goats were near/at the bottom of that list. With Kamade hitting over .300, putting Newhouse and his near-.400 OBP as lead-off with Kamade, then Jackson behind them....things have gotten much better in that department as well.

So, the strong area (BP) got even stronger; the strongest area (Def) got even better; and the poo-poo area, well, that might not have been completely fixed but it has helped out quite a bit. Even Deortez has started hitting much better since the Newhouse acquisition. So yeah, we've got a shot but time is running out quickly. (Honestly, finishing at or above .500 would be awesome enough for my last year in Nashville. I have no doubt the core is there for Recte to work some magic and get the Goats/Bluebirds in the Landis in no time!)

[StormZ_23]

You wrote more about your one reason than I did with 10 reasons. I see your overachieving.

[RonCo]

Overachieving is a kind way of putting it.

[jleddy]

Ahhh yes, but let's not forget those added trade deadline acquisitions to add to the mix! Medici is close to, if not straight up is, one of the best Closers in the BBA. His acquisition has moved the pretty-darn-good late inning guys to some earlier innings shortening that Pen even more, allowing those SPs to have a shorter leash with some comfort behind them.

And, dont forget about Mr. Newhouse himself! He's no slouch defensively and provides that extra spark at the top of the lineup. I forget who did the research on how often lead-off hitters were getting on base and then scoring, but the Goats were near/at the bottom of that list. With Kamade hitting over .300, putting Newhouse and his near-.400 OBP as lead-off with Kamade, then Jackson behind them....things have gotten much better in that department as well.

Personally, this is what I would point to this as the main reason. They are playing .600 baseball since adding Newhouse and he, along with Jackson and Kamade, gives the Goats a Big Three (to steal a basketball term.) For de' Medici, when your run differential is just about even for the year, having that reliable and elite lock-down closer to make sure you don't give away any late inning victories has been so important for Nashville. But yes, Ron's point about defense can't be overlooked too...especially come playoffs when every run saved is huge.

Moves like those, along with the Goats possibly having their most successful season under the Golden regime and exceeding all expectations ought to earn Brett a good chunk of GM of the Year votes.

[ae37jr]

I think the most amazing stat is that Nashville outfielders have only committed 5 errors the entire season. They are far and away the best outfield defense in the BBA.

[RonCo]

ought to earn Brett a good chunk of GM of the Year votes.

Sometimes GM of the Year awards happen a long time before they're awarded. Nashville was a simmering stew of landfill with a mega-bill of stadium debt when Brett took them over. It's been a long, slow, but steady climb out.

[GoldenOne]

The minor league talent is regrettably thin but most of the team is still fairly young and recte has been around for a while. I think Nashville has a decent future. Good enough for me.