Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:41 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:40 am
I foresee quite the HOF debate coming for Mr Rhodes. My opinion is that if he retired after this season there would be a case for no, but if he gets into that 3500+ hits range than at a certain point the sheer volume will tip the balance.
Yeah, i think it's going to be a fun debate.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:47 am

for what it is worth, as of right now he has played 859/2199 games at 1B, so unless someone picks him up after this season and puts him back in the field he will likely go in as a DH candidate. by a relatively comfortable margin.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:59 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 am
I'll give you a really good example from real life to close: I have a student who came in for help regularly last year, was the best student in my weakest Honors Precalculus class, and completed everything on time and did her homework two or three times to make sure she got the math. There's one other teacher who teaches Honors Precalculus, and she said that this student was not an honors student. (True story.)

Is she fantastic at mental math or quick to get concepts? NO. But she was the most honors student in any of my classes because of her consistency and her quality. She'd be my Dusty Rhodes.
First, that's a great story. Thanks for sharing it.

That said, I'm not sure it's quite the same thing. I'm going to focus on "consistency and quality." She's consistently showing up, and she's working really hard. That's the consistency part. At question is the quality part. I'm making an assumption that she scores very high marks. In everything. So, in that case she'd have worked herself to the point where she's in the precalculus Hall of Fame, and a person who said "not a honors student" was just not looking at the test scores. By that, I mean that I'd expect an Honors Hitter to have a great wOBA, and an Honors baseball player to be in the ballpark with WAR. (*)

Dusty Rhodes is a guy who, unlike your student, when you look at the big-picture test scores (being WAR and wOBA), actually falls very far behind. Those test scores say that as a run producer, Dusty Rhodes has been consistently pretty good, but never very great. He is consistently great at base hits, though. As a calculus student, Dusty Rhodes is a dazzling integrator, but often fails short while working with differential equations and finding limits and ... is that an honors student?

(*) - Unless, of course, the HoF is about more than on-field excellence--about more than being "the best players." Which I suppose, is at the root of this post and Rhodes' candidacy. It is highly, highly unlikely that Rhodes will ever fit the Hall by being one of the greatest players of all time as measured by WAR/wOBA. . But can he make it on the strength of showing up for 15-20 years and displaying one skill at a blazingly good level? The answer could be yes, he's highly over-rated, but I'd put him in the Hall anyway. Personally, right this minute, I honestly don't know how I'd vote.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:11 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:47 am
for what it is worth, as of right now he has played 859/2199 games at 1B, so unless someone picks him up after this season and puts him back in the field he will likely go in as a DH candidate. by a relatively comfortable margin.
Yeah, I should have noted that. But putting him up against HoF DH's is almost not fair. He's arguably even further away from this set--which probably make sense given they can't add value to their case with the glove.

Frank Thomas III - .385 wOBA, 85.5 WAR
Alberto Guzman - .403 wOBA, 71.4 WAR
Bo Jordan - .378 wOBA, 71.4 WAR
Antonio Sanchez - .365 wOBA, 56 WAR

Dusty Rhodes - .345 wOBA, 37 WAR (at age 35)

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by indiansfan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 am

Yes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:31 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 am
But what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?
I love his case because that's the question it asks. The answer the modern world is coming to seems to be "no," it's not quite telling. But that's been the debate for some time, and I love how Posnanski addresses it in his article.
It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time...he's a 5-time All-Star.
But is that telling about him, or is it telling about us and our love for blue bars? Across time, he's been a 2.5 WAR player in the DH slot for most of this career. That's an okay starter, but not generally an All-Star kind of number (calling Ted's Claudio Defazio argument, calling Ted's ...).
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:35 am

indiansfan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 am
Yes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
We could debate WAR, but wOBA clearly weights all offensive results based on their expected run production, and Rhodes is far off the pace there, too.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by felipe » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:47 am

yeah, its pretty much why I've never been interested in acquiring him; he provides very little value for where the position he plays

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:25 am

RonCo wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:31 am
aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 am
But what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?
I love his case because that's the question it asks. The answer the modern world is coming to seems to be "no," it's not quite telling. But that's been the debate for some time, and I love how Posnanski addresses it in his article.
It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time...he's a 5-time All-Star.
But is that telling about him, or is it telling about us and our love for blue bars? Across time, he's been a 2.5 WAR player in the DH slot for most of this career. That's an okay starter, but not generally an All-Star kind of number (calling Ted's Claudio Defazio argument, calling Ted's ...).
I agree that in general, batting average is a weaker stat than wOBA or WAR, just as ERA is inferior in many ways to FIP. What we think of both things is in some part fielding. There has to be a threshold, however, at which all weaker stats are overcome by a dominant player.

If this were the "real world," Dusty would be one of the most celebrated players in the game for his unique ability to consistently top the leaderboard in one of the two glamour stats. That might be an absurd lack of perception on our part, but it's also true. He'd also be a highly coveted fantasy player for his dominance in that category plus a few stolen bases from the first base position.

I mean, I can see the blurb for this on ESPN now. "Dusty won't get you a lot of home runs, but there are few players who will consistently dominate the batting average category. He'll get you a few stolen bases from the first base position and still hit 15-20 home runs a year with solid RBI production. Draft in the third or fourth round (top 30-40 players)."

Equally important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:38 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:25 am
Equally important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?
Like I said above, I'm honestly not sure how I vote in Rhodes' case. I tend to have a foot in the "best player" box and a foot in the "baseball narrative" case (probably why I like the Posnanski piece--the stories we tell about baseball, the things that get our hearts racing about it are as real as anything else). Is Ozzie Smith a Hall of Famer in my book, yes indeed. Is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover, oh my how you make me laugh. Lou Brock I probably vote yes, but a big part of that is that I remember being a kid on the sandlot and wearing my plastic Cardinals batting helmet while standing on first base and thinking I was going to steal like Lou Brock.

I'd probably fight to the death for Ozzie Smith because he was a generational player (he also put down 76 WAR [67 by FanGraphs]), with Lou Brock I'd be fine to lose the argument (he was a 45 WAR player [43 by FanGraphs]).

By straight WAR comparison, Dusty Rhodes has to play 4-5 more years at his career average rate to catch Lou Brock.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by crobillard » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:30 am

It’s going to be very interesting to see when he retires and if he continues to find a job. He’s started lumping this year so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him continue to lump.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by 7teen » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:36 am

My vote is yes he's a HOF then I get to throw my typical hissy fit when you guys don't vote Steve Dempsey in years later! haha

Rhodes won't be a Pantheon guy but he's a lower tier guy in my book because he does possess a skill that is HOF worthy and that's his ability to get hits.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:53 am

RonCo wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:38 am
aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:25 am
Equally important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?
Like I said above, I'm honestly not sure how I vote in Rhodes' case. I tend to have a foot in the "best player" box and a foot in the "baseball narrative" case (probably why I like the Posnanski piece--the stories we tell about baseball, the things that get our hearts racing about it are as real as anything else). Is Ozzie Smith a Hall of Famer in my book, yes indeed. Is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover, oh my how you make me laugh. Lou Brock I probably vote yes, but a big part of that is that I remember being a kid on the sandlot and wearing my plastic Cardinals batting helmet while standing on first base and thinking I was going to steal like Lou Brock.

I'd probably fight to the death for Ozzie Smith because he was a generational player (he also put down 76 WAR [67 by FanGraphs]), with Lou Brock I'd be fine to lose the argument (he was a 45 WAR player [43 by FanGraphs]).

By straight WAR comparison, Dusty Rhodes has to play 4-5 more years at his career average rate to catch Lou Brock.
The Brock argument is my argument for Rhodes. If you had a guy like that you'd have kids all over America trying to hit like him.

Ozzie had a 4.5 offensive WAR in 1988, when his OPS+ was 98. I think it's possible - just possible - that Ozzie's offensive stats looked practically Ruthian next to the shortstops of the time.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:10 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:53 am
The Brock argument is my argument for Rhodes. If you had a guy like that you'd have kids all over America trying to hit like him.
Yes, I get that attempt to equate Rhodes and Brock. But, again, Rhodes needs to play 5-7 years to get into Brock's WAR range. Arguably, this is the core of what it means to be over-rated...that the aura around you exceeds your actual value by a considerable margin.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:16 pm

It's a Hall of Fame. Not a Hall of WAR. Writers would have lots of arguments that Rhodes is overrated, but there would be plenty of people on the other side pointing out that he has not a special but unique skill that few players in the history of the game have ever had.

I think you missed the highest similarity score of all with Rhodes. It's Tony Gwynn. You go ahead and try to keep Gwynn out of the Hall of Fame. I dare ya.

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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by udlb58 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:24 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 am
I read everything you wrote, and I'm not sold. If his biggest problems were that he played first base and that he didn't draw quite enough walks or hit enough doubles then you're simply discounting his regular excellence. The reason why batting average "doesn't matter" is because of wild fluctuations in the statistic; a player can hit .270 one year and have a flukish .320 year and it doesn't make him "better." But what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?

Dusty currently has the third highest batting average of all time among players who have 8000 PA or more. If I lower that to 4000 PA (7+ full seasons) he falls all the way to fourth. It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time. He'll have won his fifth batting title and his fourth hits title this year. He's a five-time All-Star.

I had him for one year, and only one year, because I had Manuel Marino coming up from the minors. Rhodes is not as good as Marino, who if he holds will have had three seasons of a .987 OPS or better in five seasons total. This illustrates your point. But the fact that he's not the ultimate Hall of Famer doesn't mean he isn't one at all.

I'll give you a really good example from real life to close: I have a student who came in for help regularly last year, was the best student in my weakest Honors Precalculus class, and completed everything on time and did her homework two or three times to make sure she got the math. There's one other teacher who teaches Honors Precalculus, and she said that this student was not an honors student. (True story.)

Is she fantastic at mental math or quick to get concepts? NO. But she was the most honors student in any of my classes because of her consistency and her quality. She'd be my Dusty Rhodes.
I will couch this with the fact that I will probably end up voting for Rhodes at some point (but I also voted for Felix, and I consider them roughly equal).

Still, if the vast majority of a .330 hitter's hits are singles (I believe roughly 2300 of Rhodes hits are singles, without looking it up) and he has an OBP of .370, how is he better than a career .250 hitter who also has an OBP of .370 and more XBH?

Sure, there are situations where a hit is more advantageous than a walk, but for the most part a single and walk are of similar value.

As for your example A-aron, it reminds me of the first couple episodes of this season's Revisionist History by Malcolm Gladwell. He discusses how the bar exam doesn't really determine who will be successful in law school or as a practicing lawyer.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:26 pm

Tony Gwynn is #12 on Rhodes' MLB Similarity register. In looking at it, I see I transposed a number entering the data, so I'll post it here and edit the list above. It doesn't change a whole lot (but brings Bill Buckner up to the top 10). The most interesting addition is Roberto Clemente, who created his value in a shortened career. Rod Carew is an interesting addition, too...note the removal of Keith Hernandez (who falls to #17). Here's the new top 15 (to include Gwynn):

Steve Garvey 1B
Al Oliver OF
Roberto Clemente OF
Mark Grace 1B
George Sisler 1B
Bill Buckner 1B
Mickey Vernon 1B
Zack Wheat OF
Rod Carew 1B
Jim Bottomley 1B
Don Mattingly 1B
Tony Gwynn OF
Wally Joyner 1B
John Olerud 1B
Cecil Cooper 1B
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by udlb58 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:27 pm

indiansfan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 am
Yes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
Did you look at my table comparing him to Hahn? They have nearly identical run production per 163 games.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:28 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:24 pm
As for your example A-aron, it reminds me of the first couple episodes of this season's Revisionist History by Malcolm Gladwell. He discusses how the bar exam doesn't really determine who will be successful in law school or as a practicing lawyer.
RH is great.
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Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:41 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:26 pm
Tony Gwynn is #12 on Rhodes' MLB Similarity register. In looking at it, I see I transposed a number entering the data, so I'll post it here and edit the list above. It doesn't change a whole lot (but brings Bill Buckner up to the top 10). The most interesting addition is Roberto Clemente, who created his value in a shortened career. Rod Carew is an interesting addition, too...note the removal of Keith Hernandez (who falls to #17). Here's the new top 15 (to include Gwynn):

Steve Garvey 1B
Al Oliver OF
Roberto Clemente OF
Mark Grace 1B
George Sisler 1B
Bill Buckner 1B
Mickey Vernon 1B
Zack Wheat OF
Rod Carew 1B
Jim Bottomley 1B
Don Mattingly 1B
Tony Gwynn OF
Wally Joyner 1B
John Olerud 1B
Cecil Cooper 1B
It's a great list, too. You have HoFers in it, but most are from the older eras of the game (Sisler, Wheat, Bottomley). Clemente is a special case, and Rad Carew had 81 WAR and a 131 OPS+ on his career.

Otherwise, you've got Al Oliver, Mark Grace, and Bill Buckner...which are three guys my brain can accept and see when I think of Dusty Rhodes. Steve Garvey I admit I struggle with.

Thanks for pointing out Gwynn, I would never have seen my mess-up otherwise, and I'm enjoying looking at this list a lot.
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