Yeah, i think it's going to be a fun debate.usnspecialist wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:40 amI foresee quite the HOF debate coming for Mr Rhodes. My opinion is that if he retired after this season there would be a case for no, but if he gets into that 3500+ hits range than at a certain point the sheer volume will tip the balance.
Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
-
- Ex-GM
- Posts: 6652
- Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
- Location: Manama, Bahrain
- Has thanked: 207 times
- Been thanked: 776 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
for what it is worth, as of right now he has played 859/2199 games at 1B, so unless someone picks him up after this season and puts him back in the field he will likely go in as a DH candidate. by a relatively comfortable margin.
Randy Weigand
Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-
League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43
Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 32-50 (1608-1481)
Des Moines Kernels: 52-
League Champion- 34
JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
First, that's a great story. Thanks for sharing it.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 amI'll give you a really good example from real life to close: I have a student who came in for help regularly last year, was the best student in my weakest Honors Precalculus class, and completed everything on time and did her homework two or three times to make sure she got the math. There's one other teacher who teaches Honors Precalculus, and she said that this student was not an honors student. (True story.)
Is she fantastic at mental math or quick to get concepts? NO. But she was the most honors student in any of my classes because of her consistency and her quality. She'd be my Dusty Rhodes.
That said, I'm not sure it's quite the same thing. I'm going to focus on "consistency and quality." She's consistently showing up, and she's working really hard. That's the consistency part. At question is the quality part. I'm making an assumption that she scores very high marks. In everything. So, in that case she'd have worked herself to the point where she's in the precalculus Hall of Fame, and a person who said "not a honors student" was just not looking at the test scores. By that, I mean that I'd expect an Honors Hitter to have a great wOBA, and an Honors baseball player to be in the ballpark with WAR. (*)
Dusty Rhodes is a guy who, unlike your student, when you look at the big-picture test scores (being WAR and wOBA), actually falls very far behind. Those test scores say that as a run producer, Dusty Rhodes has been consistently pretty good, but never very great. He is consistently great at base hits, though. As a calculus student, Dusty Rhodes is a dazzling integrator, but often fails short while working with differential equations and finding limits and ... is that an honors student?
(*) - Unless, of course, the HoF is about more than on-field excellence--about more than being "the best players." Which I suppose, is at the root of this post and Rhodes' candidacy. It is highly, highly unlikely that Rhodes will ever fit the Hall by being one of the greatest players of all time as measured by WAR/wOBA. . But can he make it on the strength of showing up for 15-20 years and displaying one skill at a blazingly good level? The answer could be yes, he's highly over-rated, but I'd put him in the Hall anyway. Personally, right this minute, I honestly don't know how I'd vote.
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Yeah, I should have noted that. But putting him up against HoF DH's is almost not fair. He's arguably even further away from this set--which probably make sense given they can't add value to their case with the glove.usnspecialist wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:47 amfor what it is worth, as of right now he has played 859/2199 games at 1B, so unless someone picks him up after this season and puts him back in the field he will likely go in as a DH candidate. by a relatively comfortable margin.
Frank Thomas III - .385 wOBA, 85.5 WAR
Alberto Guzman - .403 wOBA, 71.4 WAR
Bo Jordan - .378 wOBA, 71.4 WAR
Antonio Sanchez - .365 wOBA, 56 WAR
Dusty Rhodes - .345 wOBA, 37 WAR (at age 35)
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=28112
- indiansfan
- BBA GM
- Posts: 3432
- Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2012 7:39 pm
- Has thanked: 12 times
- Been thanked: 239 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Yes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
Kevin
Calgary Pioneers 2004-
BBA Landis Champs 2018, 21
FL Champs 2018, 21, 39
FL Pacific Champs: 2016, 19, 21, 34
FL Frontier Champs 2039
FL WC 2018, 26-29, 31-32, 35
JL WC 2040, 41, 44
FL MOY 2019, 34
JL MOY 2044
Calgary Pioneers 2004-
BBA Landis Champs 2018, 21
FL Champs 2018, 21, 39
FL Pacific Champs: 2016, 19, 21, 34
FL Frontier Champs 2039
FL WC 2018, 26-29, 31-32, 35
JL WC 2040, 41, 44
FL MOY 2019, 34
JL MOY 2044
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
I love his case because that's the question it asks. The answer the modern world is coming to seems to be "no," it's not quite telling. But that's been the debate for some time, and I love how Posnanski addresses it in his article.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 amBut what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?
But is that telling about him, or is it telling about us and our love for blue bars? Across time, he's been a 2.5 WAR player in the DH slot for most of this career. That's an okay starter, but not generally an All-Star kind of number (calling Ted's Claudio Defazio argument, calling Ted's ...).It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time...he's a 5-time All-Star.
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
We could debate WAR, but wOBA clearly weights all offensive results based on their expected run production, and Rhodes is far off the pace there, too.indiansfan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 amYes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
- aaronweiner
- BBA GM
- Posts: 12019
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 1:56 pm
- Has thanked: 50 times
- Been thanked: 758 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
I agree that in general, batting average is a weaker stat than wOBA or WAR, just as ERA is inferior in many ways to FIP. What we think of both things is in some part fielding. There has to be a threshold, however, at which all weaker stats are overcome by a dominant player.RonCo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:31 amI love his case because that's the question it asks. The answer the modern world is coming to seems to be "no," it's not quite telling. But that's been the debate for some time, and I love how Posnanski addresses it in his article.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 amBut what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?
But is that telling about him, or is it telling about us and our love for blue bars? Across time, he's been a 2.5 WAR player in the DH slot for most of this career. That's an okay starter, but not generally an All-Star kind of number (calling Ted's Claudio Defazio argument, calling Ted's ...).It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time...he's a 5-time All-Star.
If this were the "real world," Dusty would be one of the most celebrated players in the game for his unique ability to consistently top the leaderboard in one of the two glamour stats. That might be an absurd lack of perception on our part, but it's also true. He'd also be a highly coveted fantasy player for his dominance in that category plus a few stolen bases from the first base position.
I mean, I can see the blurb for this on ESPN now. "Dusty won't get you a lot of home runs, but there are few players who will consistently dominate the batting average category. He'll get you a few stolen bases from the first base position and still hit 15-20 home runs a year with solid RBI production. Draft in the third or fourth round (top 30-40 players)."
Equally important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Like I said above, I'm honestly not sure how I vote in Rhodes' case. I tend to have a foot in the "best player" box and a foot in the "baseball narrative" case (probably why I like the Posnanski piece--the stories we tell about baseball, the things that get our hearts racing about it are as real as anything else). Is Ozzie Smith a Hall of Famer in my book, yes indeed. Is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover, oh my how you make me laugh. Lou Brock I probably vote yes, but a big part of that is that I remember being a kid on the sandlot and wearing my plastic Cardinals batting helmet while standing on first base and thinking I was going to steal like Lou Brock.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:25 amEqually important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?
I'd probably fight to the death for Ozzie Smith because he was a generational player (he also put down 76 WAR [67 by FanGraphs]), with Lou Brock I'd be fine to lose the argument (he was a 45 WAR player [43 by FanGraphs]).
By straight WAR comparison, Dusty Rhodes has to play 4-5 more years at his career average rate to catch Lou Brock.
-
- Ex-GM
- Posts: 2936
- Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:38 am
- Has thanked: 297 times
- Been thanked: 240 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
It’s going to be very interesting to see when he retires and if he continues to find a job. He’s started lumping this year so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him continue to lump.
- 7teen
- BBA GM
- Posts: 9806
- Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:59 am
- Has thanked: 223 times
- Been thanked: 1135 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
My vote is yes he's a HOF then I get to throw my typical hissy fit when you guys don't vote Steve Dempsey in years later! haha
Rhodes won't be a Pantheon guy but he's a lower tier guy in my book because he does possess a skill that is HOF worthy and that's his ability to get hits.
Rhodes won't be a Pantheon guy but he's a lower tier guy in my book because he does possess a skill that is HOF worthy and that's his ability to get hits.
Chris Wilson
LB Surfers 95-96
FL Pac Champs: 95
Madison Wolves 99-2039
JL MW: 99-2009, 17, 20, 21
JL WC: 12
JL: 01, 04, 09, 12
FL Heartland: 32
FL WC: 31, 33
BBA Champs: 04, 09
Portland Lumberjacks 2040-
FL Pacific: 50
FL WC: 49, 51
FL Champs: 49, 51
Vic Caleca TN of the Year 2046
LB Surfers 95-96
FL Pac Champs: 95
Madison Wolves 99-2039
JL MW: 99-2009, 17, 20, 21
JL WC: 12
JL: 01, 04, 09, 12
FL Heartland: 32
FL WC: 31, 33
BBA Champs: 04, 09
Portland Lumberjacks 2040-
FL Pacific: 50
FL WC: 49, 51
FL Champs: 49, 51
Vic Caleca TN of the Year 2046
- aaronweiner
- BBA GM
- Posts: 12019
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 1:56 pm
- Has thanked: 50 times
- Been thanked: 758 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
The Brock argument is my argument for Rhodes. If you had a guy like that you'd have kids all over America trying to hit like him.RonCo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:38 amLike I said above, I'm honestly not sure how I vote in Rhodes' case. I tend to have a foot in the "best player" box and a foot in the "baseball narrative" case (probably why I like the Posnanski piece--the stories we tell about baseball, the things that get our hearts racing about it are as real as anything else). Is Ozzie Smith a Hall of Famer in my book, yes indeed. Is Derek Jeter a Gold Glover, oh my how you make me laugh. Lou Brock I probably vote yes, but a big part of that is that I remember being a kid on the sandlot and wearing my plastic Cardinals batting helmet while standing on first base and thinking I was going to steal like Lou Brock.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:25 amEqually important question back: are Ozzie Smith and Lou Brock Hall of Famers? We're never going to properly perceive an Ozzie in this game, but does Mr. Backflip make the cut for you?
I'd probably fight to the death for Ozzie Smith because he was a generational player (he also put down 76 WAR [67 by FanGraphs]), with Lou Brock I'd be fine to lose the argument (he was a 45 WAR player [43 by FanGraphs]).
By straight WAR comparison, Dusty Rhodes has to play 4-5 more years at his career average rate to catch Lou Brock.
Ozzie had a 4.5 offensive WAR in 1988, when his OPS+ was 98. I think it's possible - just possible - that Ozzie's offensive stats looked practically Ruthian next to the shortstops of the time.
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Yes, I get that attempt to equate Rhodes and Brock. But, again, Rhodes needs to play 5-7 years to get into Brock's WAR range. Arguably, this is the core of what it means to be over-rated...that the aura around you exceeds your actual value by a considerable margin.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:53 amThe Brock argument is my argument for Rhodes. If you had a guy like that you'd have kids all over America trying to hit like him.
- aaronweiner
- BBA GM
- Posts: 12019
- Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 1:56 pm
- Has thanked: 50 times
- Been thanked: 758 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
It's a Hall of Fame. Not a Hall of WAR. Writers would have lots of arguments that Rhodes is overrated, but there would be plenty of people on the other side pointing out that he has not a special but unique skill that few players in the history of the game have ever had.
I think you missed the highest similarity score of all with Rhodes. It's Tony Gwynn. You go ahead and try to keep Gwynn out of the Hall of Fame. I dare ya.
I think you missed the highest similarity score of all with Rhodes. It's Tony Gwynn. You go ahead and try to keep Gwynn out of the Hall of Fame. I dare ya.
-
- Ex-GM
- Posts: 3553
- Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:46 pm
- Has thanked: 12 times
- Been thanked: 70 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
I will couch this with the fact that I will probably end up voting for Rhodes at some point (but I also voted for Felix, and I consider them roughly equal).aaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:22 amI read everything you wrote, and I'm not sold. If his biggest problems were that he played first base and that he didn't draw quite enough walks or hit enough doubles then you're simply discounting his regular excellence. The reason why batting average "doesn't matter" is because of wild fluctuations in the statistic; a player can hit .270 one year and have a flukish .320 year and it doesn't make him "better." But what if you're a player who's played for 14 years and had just three seasons below a .320 batting average? Instead of a meaningless stat, isn't that quite telling?
Dusty currently has the third highest batting average of all time among players who have 8000 PA or more. If I lower that to 4000 PA (7+ full seasons) he falls all the way to fourth. It's telling that despite the fact that everyone knows he's never going to hit a double or draw many walks that he's been a starter 100% of the time. He'll have won his fifth batting title and his fourth hits title this year. He's a five-time All-Star.
I had him for one year, and only one year, because I had Manuel Marino coming up from the minors. Rhodes is not as good as Marino, who if he holds will have had three seasons of a .987 OPS or better in five seasons total. This illustrates your point. But the fact that he's not the ultimate Hall of Famer doesn't mean he isn't one at all.
I'll give you a really good example from real life to close: I have a student who came in for help regularly last year, was the best student in my weakest Honors Precalculus class, and completed everything on time and did her homework two or three times to make sure she got the math. There's one other teacher who teaches Honors Precalculus, and she said that this student was not an honors student. (True story.)
Is she fantastic at mental math or quick to get concepts? NO. But she was the most honors student in any of my classes because of her consistency and her quality. She'd be my Dusty Rhodes.
Still, if the vast majority of a .330 hitter's hits are singles (I believe roughly 2300 of Rhodes hits are singles, without looking it up) and he has an OBP of .370, how is he better than a career .250 hitter who also has an OBP of .370 and more XBH?
Sure, there are situations where a hit is more advantageous than a walk, but for the most part a single and walk are of similar value.
As for your example A-aron, it reminds me of the first couple episodes of this season's Revisionist History by Malcolm Gladwell. He discusses how the bar exam doesn't really determine who will be successful in law school or as a practicing lawyer.
Greenville Moonshiners/Jacksonville Hurricanes GM: 2026-Present
Jacksonville Hurricanes GM: (1251-1018); 2029, 2031, 2034-38 Div. Champions
Paris Patriots GM: 2025 (79-83)
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Tony Gwynn is #12 on Rhodes' MLB Similarity register. In looking at it, I see I transposed a number entering the data, so I'll post it here and edit the list above. It doesn't change a whole lot (but brings Bill Buckner up to the top 10). The most interesting addition is Roberto Clemente, who created his value in a shortened career. Rod Carew is an interesting addition, too...note the removal of Keith Hernandez (who falls to #17). Here's the new top 15 (to include Gwynn):
Steve Garvey 1B
Al Oliver OF
Roberto Clemente OF
Mark Grace 1B
George Sisler 1B
Bill Buckner 1B
Mickey Vernon 1B
Zack Wheat OF
Rod Carew 1B
Jim Bottomley 1B
Don Mattingly 1B
Tony Gwynn OF
Wally Joyner 1B
John Olerud 1B
Cecil Cooper 1B
Steve Garvey 1B
Al Oliver OF
Roberto Clemente OF
Mark Grace 1B
George Sisler 1B
Bill Buckner 1B
Mickey Vernon 1B
Zack Wheat OF
Rod Carew 1B
Jim Bottomley 1B
Don Mattingly 1B
Tony Gwynn OF
Wally Joyner 1B
John Olerud 1B
Cecil Cooper 1B
-
- Ex-GM
- Posts: 3553
- Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:46 pm
- Has thanked: 12 times
- Been thanked: 70 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Did you look at my table comparing him to Hahn? They have nearly identical run production per 163 games.indiansfan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 amYes. Hall of Famer. I will take hits over walks all day long. 3000 hits is automatic in my book. This is another guy that shows why WAR just glorifies walks and not real production like hits and homers
Greenville Moonshiners/Jacksonville Hurricanes GM: 2026-Present
Jacksonville Hurricanes GM: (1251-1018); 2029, 2031, 2034-38 Div. Champions
Paris Patriots GM: 2025 (79-83)
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
- RonCo
- GB: JL Frontier Division Director
- Posts: 19807
- Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
- Has thanked: 1981 times
- Been thanked: 2900 times
Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
It's a great list, too. You have HoFers in it, but most are from the older eras of the game (Sisler, Wheat, Bottomley). Clemente is a special case, and Rad Carew had 81 WAR and a 131 OPS+ on his career.RonCo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:26 pmTony Gwynn is #12 on Rhodes' MLB Similarity register. In looking at it, I see I transposed a number entering the data, so I'll post it here and edit the list above. It doesn't change a whole lot (but brings Bill Buckner up to the top 10). The most interesting addition is Roberto Clemente, who created his value in a shortened career. Rod Carew is an interesting addition, too...note the removal of Keith Hernandez (who falls to #17). Here's the new top 15 (to include Gwynn):
Steve Garvey 1B
Al Oliver OF
Roberto Clemente OF
Mark Grace 1B
George Sisler 1B
Bill Buckner 1B
Mickey Vernon 1B
Zack Wheat OF
Rod Carew 1B
Jim Bottomley 1B
Don Mattingly 1B
Tony Gwynn OF
Wally Joyner 1B
John Olerud 1B
Cecil Cooper 1B
Otherwise, you've got Al Oliver, Mark Grace, and Bill Buckner...which are three guys my brain can accept and see when I think of Dusty Rhodes. Steve Garvey I admit I struggle with.
Thanks for pointing out Gwynn, I would never have seen my mess-up otherwise, and I'm enjoying looking at this list a lot.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests