Deadline Market Questions Abound

[RonCo]

In a 2039 season that may well be considered the most hotly contested in league history, the BBA has now arrived at the trade deadline and is finding a set of market forces at work that are twisting those in charge of pontificating into pretzels of prognostication. Extra on the salt, please.

On the one hand, you’ve already had Edmonton shed Bobby Lynch (to Calgary) and Jose Ramos (to Wichita) only to find themselves back in the hunt for the last wildcard slot. Twin Cities has now tipped their hand, declaring themselves on the outside by trading both Chris Kelly (to Jacksonville) and Josh Brown (to Las Vegas). You could go back a little further and add in Calgary’s acquisition of Chip Puckett to the mix, and if you want to bend things a bit, say Yellow Springs picking up Juan Guerrero and Adam Barnard were late acquisitions that could influence the future.

The What’s Brewin’ in the Brewster podcast recently ran though a few names who might be chips that could move in the future, including Madison’s Elroy Hinson, Long Beach’s Mark Simpson, Montreal’s Vincente Lopez, and Wichita’s Abe Colbert, Jr. There are others said to be available, too—one would expect that Charm City would dearly love to get themselves out of Carlton Winson’s lead albatross of a deal now. Given the dearth of starting pitching, one wonders if anyone would give Des Moines something for Ragnar Lothbrock. Twin Cities has been vocal about the availability of All-Star shortstop Mark Wareham and star catcher Sang-duk Sim.

Ultimately, you can run through most organizations and find players who could move in the right situation. The question in all these cases, though, is: what is the right situation?

Most are predicting a wild and wooly series of deals as teams in the wildcard hunt try to steal a trip to the post-season, and as teams at the top of divisions try to find pieces that will carry them over the edge in October.

“None of the division leaders can afford to feel safe this year,” said BBA Monthly analyst Gayle Combs. “It’s a really different year. We don’t have a set of juggernauts ready to roll over the defenseless hordes, which means every player can make a difference.”

Combs’ view is supported by the BBA’s newfangled StatsPlus service, which projects Rockville’s 95 wins to be the most likely best record in baseball—a fact that, if it stands, would be the lowest total in recorded history, and represent the first time in over 15 seasons that the best record in baseball was under 100 wins.


SO, LIKE, WHO IS SELLING?

While most are predicting a wild deadline, there’s also some who consider the situation ripe for creating a “lot of to-do about nothing” kind of scenario. Their counterpoint is that with so many teams in contention, sellers are scarce—and while that drives up prices, it limits volume. Add to this that the raw number of contenders suggests that odds of success might be lower than desired, and you can see their point.

Still, there’s a human aspect to this situation.

GMs got to GM, right?

Decisions abound.

And right now all those GMs are sitting around in their offices trying to decide how to address their situations, probably playing the old “You got to know when the hold’em, know when to fold’em” refrain in their offices. Teams like Mexico City, Brooklyn, and Huntsville in the Johnson and San Fernando, Edmonton, and Boise in the Frick are the ones with the harshest read of the greens. Each are under three games away from a post-season lottery ticket, which puts them under the greatest strain. A failure while pushing all-in creates long-term organizational distress. Success could keep them relevant and give the team momentum, not to mention a shot at the Landis. Do they go for it, or do they try to ride a hot market to grab bigger pieces for the future.

Arguably, you’re hearing the same arguments in the offices of Nashville, Wichita, and Des Moines—and maybe Omaha (though the Hawks feel more constrained). These teams are five games or less out of the post season, but have a lot of teams to jump. Of the three, the Kernels seem the youngest, and with the most uncertainty on the upside. If the Don Smiths of the world catch fire, they’ll make for an interesting narrative. Wichita is the most set up to win now, though. And Nashville is on the end of The Plan. Who the hell knows what’s going to happen there.

The point here is that it looks like there are only seven obvious sellers: Louisville, Charm City, Atlantic City, and Montreal in the Johnson, Long Beach, Madison, and Vancouver in the Frick—and you could argue the Surfers might decide to stay in the hunt. They’re five and a half out, though, and they’d have to climb over seven teams in the last 35 games—a climb that is technically achievable.


HOW MUCH WILL BUYERS SPEND?

To add more complexity, while the scarcity of players drive prices up, scarcity of post season slots compared to the size of the competitive market would serve to drive them down. If, for example, you’re sitting in the seats of those fulcrum teams, and you know your chance of eventual success is, say, 20%--that chance is large enough to suggest a move, but small enough to make it unlikely you want to part with a big chunk of your future to do it.

Will that drive prices down? Or perhaps that situation will not so much drive the market down as it might expand the kinds of players those teams might be willing to pay for. Will we see more bit-players and role-fillers move than usual? The kinds of guys you can get on the cheap and roll the dice that they make a difference (this is pretty much what Yellow Springs did with Guerrero and Barnard, for example).

Or, given the human nature of the desire to win, will we see a few GMs just go for it anyway?

These are things fans are getting antsy about. The questions are deep and far-reaching.

The answers are coming, and they’re coming soon.

[usnspecialist]

rest assured San Fernando has made a few inquiries, but I dont feel I NEED to make a move to get into the playoffs. Once I get there, I will have Rafael back not long after to channel 2037 and come off of a lengthy injury in the middle of the playoffs to contribute to a Landis push.

[RonCo]

Yeah, I know there's going to be a lot of conversation going on. I'm more interested to see the kinds of prices that fall in place. Who feels the most Need.

[niles08]

Yeah, I know there's going to be a lot of conversation going on. I'm more interested to see the kinds of prices that fall in place. Who feels the most Need.

I may be wrong, but I feel Las Vegas just paid a hefty price for Edris Mtume and to get away from Gervasio Ridder's contract.

[jiminyhopkins]

EvErYoNe wAnTs PiTcHiNg PrOsPeCtS

[jleddy]

@RonCo, your original post brought up Simpson, who I've always felt will be dealt and was most intriguing along with Lynch. You also mentioned Colbert Jr, who I hadn't considered a couple of weeks ago (months ago game time) when Wichita was doing well but after their last two months, I think Colbert is a great chip...it will be interesting if those two are moved and what the return is.

[crobillard]

Lol I love this deadline. The most exciting one for me.

[ae37jr]

Brooklyn definitely won't be a big buyer. I feel like we are playing so far over our heads right now, we could add the best player in the league and still regress and miss playoffs.

I have thought long and hard about calling up a bushel of players who might change our outlook.....

Felipe Vega
José Ramos
Richard Drouin
Jorge Lugo
Bobby Parker

I can creatively mix them into our versatile offense and end up with a formidable lineup. But at the end of the day our pitching staff, while improving, still sucks.

If we make a deal it will be more focused on 2040 then this year.

[crobillard]

Brooklyn definitely won't be a big buyer. I feel like we are playing so far over our heads right now, we could add the best player in the league and still regress and miss playoffs.

I have thought long and hard about calling up a bushel of players who might change our outlook.....

Felipe Vega
José Ramos
Richard Drouin
Jorge Lugo
Bobby Parker

I can creatively mix them into our versatile offense and end up with a formidable lineup. But at the end of the day our pitching staff, while improving, still sucks.

If we make a deal it will be more focused on 2040 then this year.

That's a nice set of prospects for next year. I'm looking forward to that.

[recte44]

Yeah, I know there's going to be a lot of conversation going on. I'm more interested to see the kinds of prices that fall in place. Who feels the most Need.

I may be wrong, but I feel Las Vegas just paid a hefty price for Edris Mtume and to get away from Gervasio Ridder's contract.

It’s clear I value Mtume more than most.

[recte44]

Also “prospect” is a French word meaning you ain’t done shit yet.

[handaspencer]

Talking with multiple teams. Some talks are for buying and others for selling. Chances are greater than 50% Montreal actually does nothing but talk. Everyone seems real locked on exactly what they want which is good and smart but finding a deal that makes both parties happy is the tricky part. Should be fun final 24 hours.

[JimBob2232]

I'm open for business. Buying and selling.

[niles08]

Yeah, I know there's going to be a lot of conversation going on. I'm more interested to see the kinds of prices that fall in place. Who feels the most Need.

I may be wrong, but I feel Las Vegas just paid a hefty price for Edris Mtume and to get away from Gervasio Ridder's contract.

It’s clear I value Mtume more than most.

With my love for Mtume, I appreciate that.

[indiansfan]

I'm looking to still pick up a talented bullpen arm or a 5th starter. Could also use an OF that kills lefties. However my cap situation sucks for several years and no I am not trading any more top pitching prospects. Have cash to burn.

[GoldenOne]

Goats are buying. Wont break the bank though. Everyone has COF people they want to get rid of....let's see it.

[7teen]

Sign your team is bad is when you're selling for cheap and no one wants those guys.

Of course the guys everyone asks for I don't feel comfortable trading with me leaving at seasons end. Probably should have given the reigns to Will this month so he could wheel and deal anyone he wants now to maximize Madison for next season and beyond.

[RonCo]

All total I'd say that was a pretty entertaining trade deadline.

[crobillard]

I was involved in a lot at the deadline and I'm shocked nothing came of it, but that's how it be sometimes I guess.