BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

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BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by RonCo » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:22 am

So we’re on the final leg of our look at minor league systems—the relief corps. (Yay! I hear you say...I'm getting tired of all this...)

These are the overlooked folk, the guys we draft maybe in the 4th round or whatever. I think there’s still and idea in the back of our minds that relief pitchers matter much less than starters, even though they tend to pitch in a lot of high leverage situations. Like it or not, though, even in this day of openers, starters win, and relievers hold and save.


THE HEARTLAND

The Heartland, it appears is the home of the relief pitcher. It is the division with the most raw prospects by a fairly wide margin, and the home of the strongest collection in the entire league. Of course, those two measures go together.

Let’s take a look and see why I say that, starting with ...

#1 YELLOW SPRINGS
Name Lev Age T POT STU P MOV P CON P VELO STM G/F HLD
Ángel Hernández AAA 20 L 80 11 6 8 97 2 NEU 9
Alberto Contreras A 20 R 80 9 5 10 94 7 NEU 3
Tiernan O'Macken AA 21 L 80 11 7 7 99 4 GB 8
Sergio Pérez AA 20 R 75 9 6 7 99 3 GB 4
Tomás Ramírez A 20 R 75 9 6 7 101 10 NEU 6
Josh Henson A 19 L 70 7 7 8 92 6 GB 6
Knud Calkhoven AA 22 R 65 7 6 9 95 10 NEU 7
Roberto Fernández AAA 20 R 55 7 6 5 95 6 GB 4
Martín Martínez S A 20 R 50 8 6 5 95 5 GB 6
Carlos Elías AAA 20 R 50 8 6 5 98 3 NEU 6
Júlio García A 19 R 50 9 5 6 100 2 NEU 2
The Nine have the broadest and best collection of relief pitchers in the BBA, and it’s not really very close. Yes, part of this is OOTP’s ridiculous approach of rating relievers on the 20/80 scale rather than the 20/60 portion like most MLB teams do (did?). But even if you compressed things, the differences would be stark—and that’s after we had a mediocre draft year in arms. The team has ten arms of value, scattered across A, AA- and AAA, six of them rated 70 and above, Hernandez, Contreras, and O’Macken at 80.

One boon this relief corps gets is that Thomas Ramirez is in the pen for the rest of the season in hopes to keep his arm on. Ramirez is really a starting pitcher. But in relation to the gap between Yellow Springs and the rest of the world when it comes to relievers, Ramirez is a drop in the bucket.

#2: Louisville
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Orlando Peña AAA 22 R 75 10 7 4 95 8 GB 6
Juan Pinto R 19 R 75 9 6 7 99 6 GB 4
Emanuele Mercati S A 19 R 75 8 7 8 100 10 GB 8
Andresa Pires A 18 R 70 9 7 5 94 7 EX GB 6
Wilson Swain S A 19 L 60 7 9 7 91 3 EX GB 8
At 22, scouts say Orlando Pena is about ready to go. His numbers in AAA, though, make one pause. Otherwise, the Slugger system is filled with a couple hard throwers scattered in the lower ranges of the system. This suggests risk, of course. Young pitchers in the lower ranges of the system are notoriously risky. Still, it’s the bulk of a full bullpen that might all ripen in the 2042 range.

#3 Des Moines
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Juan García AAA 19 R 80 11 5 7 98 6 NEU 2
Jefferson Riles AAA 23 L 70 10 5 4 101 8 NEU 11
Pedro Tañón AA 18 R 60 6 7 7 95 6 NEU 7
In addition to a mind-melting set of starting prospects, the Kernels have a pretty fair set of young arms in the bullpen. Maybe. At issue is that Jefferson Riles has already been up and down a time or two with disastrous effect. Scouts are still high on him, so with a little more time maybe he’ll be what he’s supposed to be. But he’s 23, and some wonder how much more time is too much. Closer Juan Garcia (not to be confused with starter Juan Garcia) has elite stuff, though, and at 19 the temptation to rush him needs to be battled. And Tanon, a second piece of the Hale deal, is developing along in AA.

Overall, there’s risk here with Riles, but there’s good stuff brewing here.

#4 Madison
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Belchior Barracas AAA 20 R 75 9 7 6 100 10 NEU 3
Madison has only one arm, Belchior Barracas, but he’s both very good and pretty close to ready as he sits in AAA South Bend and puts up middling numbers. He’s 20, so we’d expect him to sit there through next spring training, and if that stuff is still lagging, maybe even through part of the year.

#5 Twin Cities
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Joey Piccoli AAA 21 R 60 9 6 7 98 1 GB 7
Edgar Villanueva A 24 R 55 9 6 5 98 1 GB 9
Now we come to OOTP rating questions. Why are 9/6/7 and 9/6/5 guys who throw 98 miles an hour rated only 60 and 55? Well, whatever. Both Picolli and Villanueva need to get their stuff up, which is what she said, right? But both look like they should be solid, and Spicolli should be ready next year some time, you’d think.

#6 Huntsville/Chicago
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Gilberto Sosa A 20 R 80 11 6 7 99 9 GB 8
James Matarazzo R 18 R 50 5 8 8 90 2 NEU 4
I’d rate this group up over Madison on a raw rating scale, but Sosa is so far away I have to discount him a little. (Ron’s rule of thumb on these kinds of things is to withhold any real weighting until A-ball—unless I decide to do something different. {har!). If Matarazzo finds a real fastball, he could be a beast. We’re not betting the farm, though.

#7 Nashville
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Juan Cerda S A 18 R 80 11 7 6 100 4 GB 4
Roberto Ramírez S A 18 R 65 7 7 9 97 3 NEU 7
Rafael Torres AA 20 R 60 10 6 5 98 2 NEU 7
Giving way the suspense, here, the decision between Nashville and Omaha here is a tight one. Could go either way. I went Nashville because Cerda is very good, and at 18 looks like he could hold his own against A-ball hitters.

#8 Omaha
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Vincente Ortíz AA 20 R 60 7 6 6 96 9 NEU 2
Ernesto Martas A 18 L 55 4 9 9 91 1 EX GB 10
Norio Hayashi AA 21 R 55 7 5 6 98 10 NEU 4
Like I said above, I could rank Omaha up a notch. None of their prospects are really eye-popping, but they could all be serviceable, and are generally closer to yielding than Nashville’s. The fact that I can say that the #8 level Heartland team is still going to be yielding serviceable players into the parent team speaks to the Heartland’s depth here.

# # # An aside here, it seems to me that the number of young relief pitchers who are still waiting to bring the stuff in is more considerable than I’ve noticed before. I’ve been unaware of any development model changes in v20, but the numbers are beginning to bounce around my head that says Markus and crew might have twiddled the buttons under the hood a little here.

As usual, here’s a visual…
2039-ML-RANKS-RP-HEARTLAND.PNG
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Re: BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by RonCo » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:55 am

And now for…


THE PACIFIC

In a recurring theme, the Pacific division is the weak brother of minor league systems. I’m not 100$ sure of why that is, really, especially when it comes to arms—where California and Long Beach both seem to focus their attentions. That said, the division is a mix of last year’s Frontier, too. Of course.

Here we go,though ...

#1 VALENCIA
Name Lev Age T POT STU P MOV P CON P VELO STM G/F HLD
Luis Gonzáles AAA 22 L 75 11 5 5 95 7 NEU 7
Jorge Martínez A 19 R 75 8 7 8 95 6 NEU 5
Grant Wright AAA 21 R 65 8 5 7 97 6 NEU 1
Fernando Carrasco AA 20 R 60 7 7 7 94 6 GB 4
Leta Koude AAA 22 R 55 8 6 7 97 4 NEU 4
Santiago Díaz AAA 22 R 50 8 6 4 96 8 NEU 5
Of course, after saying the Pacific isn’t particularly attractive, we start with one of the deeper and most well-staged groups in the league. Lee Honigsfeld is known for building within, and he’s amasses a nice set of arms, several of whom are nearing readiness. Imagine Valencia right now with a kick-ass pitching staff. That’s what’s coming—or, if not kick-assed, at least y oung and good. Wright, Gonzalez, and Kouda look like they’ll be the core glue of a pretty solid relief corp into the early 40s, then there’s a nice second shock coming along right behind.

#2: Long Beach
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Luis Manuel Rodríguez S A 18 L 80 10 9 5 91 5 GB 11
Ernesto Delgado S A 18 R 80 10 9 7 92 6 GB 3
Manuel Pacheco A 19 L 65 6 9 6 95 10 EX GB 8
Francisco Lucero AAA 20 R 65 6 9 7 97 6 EX GB 9
Bastian Lino AAA 21 R 50 7 6 6 98 6 GB 4
Then comes the Surfers, who we noted above have a tendency to focus on a balance of arms and bats. Stephen Lane’s got himself an interesting set of bullpen arms coming along in that Lucero and Lino are ready to step in now and make their presence felt even though they won’t gather headlines (to note, Lino actually made his debut last sim). But what makes this squad rate in the upper parts of the BBA itself is the fact that a second wave of guys who are even better are coming along behind, including Rodriguez and Delgado—two guys who, assuming they make it through the gauntlet, will make headlines.

#3 Hawaii
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Felipe López A 19 L 80 8 4 11 97 12 GB 10
Luis Santiago A 19 R 50 7 6 6 96 5 NEU 1
Here, however, we start running into teams that look a lot like the lower half of their Heartland brothers. Lopez and Santiago both look useful, though I worry about Lopez’s movement despite that “80” tag. Perhaps his nickname should be Prozac? The issue is that both are at least two years away, and there’s nothing much around them otherwise.

#4 California
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Manuel Cruz A 20 R 60 8 6 5 95 6 NEU 2
Matt Wilson R 18 R 55 6 5 8 93 6 GB 3
The mighty Crusaders have only two arms of real interest in their relief corps system. Cruz is probably the more interesting but even he’s only in A-ball, though he’s pitching quite well there and could probably be given a touch of AA experience before the season is over. Wilson is taking to pro ball well, but he’s a long way out.

#5 Vancouver
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Raúl De Jesús S A 20 L 65 8 6 7 97 9 GB 9
I like Raul De Jesus as a pitcher. He looks like a solid inning eater/follower kind of guy, and as a lefty will have some real value. The issue for the Mounties though is that he’s still a kid in Short-A, and that there’s just one of him.

#6 San Fernando/Seattle
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
None--------------------------------
That’s right, neither the Bears nor the Storm have a single bullpen arm in the system that was rated “50” or above when I pulled the data. So, yeah, the division is shallow here. I’ll rank them as #6 and #7 only because they have warm bodies, which is more than Portland can say right now.


#8 Portland
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
None--------------------------------
To be determined
# # # As usual, here’s a visual…
2039-ML-RANKS-RP-PACIFIC.PNG
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Re: BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by RonCo » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:44 pm

And now for…


THE FRONTIER

The Frontier claim to reliever fame is that they likely have more firepower in AAA than the rest of the league, so you’ll see more of that value at the BBA level this year and next. That’s not to say they don’t have star-power coming along—they do, but on the whole it’s a little ways out.

Strap in and hold your hands up in the air, though…we’re ready for launch...

#1 CALGARY
Name Lev Age T POT STU P MOV P CON P VELO STM G/F HLD
Joël Ottoboni AAA 19 R 80 9 7 10 100 8 NEU 7
Manuel Garza AAA 20 L 80 11 6 6 101 2 NEU 6
Patrick Whitlock S A 18 R 65 6 7 8 92 8 GB 3
Ari Lehman AAA 23 R 60 8 6 6 95 6 NEU 7
The Pioneers don’t have much depth, but what they’ve got is almost ready to go. Ottoboni, Garza, and Lehman should all be ready to pitch next season. There’s a gap down to Whitlock, but Kevin Dickson has enough in the BBA pen to tide them over.

Bottom line: if I were ranking the whole of the BBA, this group would probably wind up somewhere in the #3-#5 range based only on those three AAA guys.

#2: Boise
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Naomichi Harada AAA 20 R 75 9 6 6 96 6 GB 7
Tom Warren AAA 20 R 60 7 8 8 94 1 EX GB 4
Faical Engeitado R 18 L 60 8 5 7 91 7 NEU 9
The second Frontier club is another gang with players ready to go soon, but not much thereafter.

Harada and Warren should both provide solid service, and both could probably be pitching for the Spuds today if needed (though Harada has one of those “stuck stuffs” that’s a little worrying). Warren has actually been up and down again, though, with BBA numbers that make Mama Bear shiver. Regardless, they’re both 20, and the future is bright. The system’s got a bit of a hole in it to get to Engeitado, though.


#3 Phoenix
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
António Castillo R 18 L 80 9 7 9 90 2 GB 7
Mitchell Purssell A 19 R 80 11 8 4 100 7 GB 3
Nate Horswill AAA 24 R 60 9 6 7 97 2 GB 8
I’m quite tempted to call Phoenix the #2 system in the Frontier. They have a nice little “now and later” stagger to their three best arms, and they’ve got star quality with a pair of “80s.” Nate Horswill is also, IMHO under-scored at 9/6/7combined with a pair of elite pitches. That’s an 80 in my book. Come on, OOTP, if you’re gonna get your ratings hosed up, and least get them hosed up in ways that make sense. ( Note that Horswill has just now made his debut )

I’d feel better bumping them if Pursell had stepped out of A-ball, but if you want to bump them up, I’m good to go with that.

#4 Mexico City
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Shinsaku Ine A 18 R 80 9 8 5 101 5 GB 5
Abdi Murunga AAA 21 R 55 8 6 7 100 4 NEU 5
Bob Glenn A 20 R 55 8 5 5 100 10 NEU 6
There’s a bit of a step down to the next tier of Frontier teams, but there’s still value here. Murunga is about ready to pitch, and he’s got that “steady-eddy” feel to him. A guy who provides quiet value during his years of control then goes away. I like that Ine and Glenn have found there way to A-ball, which (again) to me is when prospects start to get more real.

I also like that Ine is being used as a starter. His third pitch may well be good enough. If it’s not, the pen will still be waiting. Ultimately, this means the Aztec’s bullpen may be rated too high, and their SP ranks too low.Time will tell.


#5 Las Vegas
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Juan Valdés A 18 L 80 9 6 8 96 9 GB 8
Mutsuhito Imai AAA 23 R 60 9 8 5 98 3 GB 6
Fernando Bruno R 18 R 50 6 4 9 93 11 NEU 7
From the 10,000 foot view, Vegas’s relief core looks a little like the Talons, except that the guy at the top of the chain isn’t the team’s best. Imai has been in the bigs for a bit, and was recently acquired from Louisville. He’s also only recently been sent down despite decent numbers. So, yeah, we give some credit, but his overall shine is less than it might look from afar.

Juan Valdez in A-ball is the real gem, and he won’t be seeing BBA action for a few years—assuming, of course, he can hang on that far.


#6 Edmonton
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Don Hinxman AA 20 L 55 6 6 8 88 8 GB 6
Arturo López AAA 23 R 50 7 6 5 98 8 GB 2
Really we should probably take Arturo Lopez off the list. He’s been a BBA level player for some time, and has been valuable for awhile, though he hasn’t gotten it done this year: hence the appearance in AAA. That leaves Hinxman at AA. He’s doing well enough, and he’s a lefty, so we see him getting his shot maybe late 2040 or early 2041.

#7 San Antonio
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Francisco Cardona AAA 22 R 55 6 8 6 97 6 GB 6
Cardona has mostly started throughout his career, and has been up at San Antonio for a bit of an audition that went…meh. He’s got the make-up to start, but given the team’s big league roster, we’re guessing his assignment as a reliever isn’t a mistake. One wonders if a trade might not be the final result here. Bottom line, though, after Cardova, there’s not much in the Outlaw bullpen system.

#8 Wichita
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
None--------------------------------
Like a bunch of the Pacific, the Genius is taking the “empty chamber” approach when it comes to bullpen arms.
# # # As usual, here’s a visual…
2039-ML-RANKS-RP-FRONTIER.PNG
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Re: BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by RonCo » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:45 pm

And now for…


THE ATLANTIC

If I were to rank the divisions when it comes to bullpen arms, it would probablyhave the Atlantic #2 behind the Heartland and ahead of the Frontier, with the Pacific(somewhere behind the UMEBA?).

Let’s scan through the teams here and see why…

#1 Brooklyn
Name Lev Age T POT STU P MOV P CON P VELO STM G/F HLD
Ramón Martínez R 18 L 80 8 9 11 97 2 GB 9
Wilson Reyes S A 18 L 60 7 9 5 94 7 EX GB 9
Enrico Morales A 21 R 60 9 5 6 100 3 NEU 3
José Harrara AAA 24 R 60 10 4 4 101 6 NEU 9
Carlos Ramírez AA 21 R 55 7 5 6 100 6 GB 7
Pat Willard A 21 R 50 6 5 6 92 9 NEU 9
Without looking, I probably would have guessed the Robins would have the best bullpen system in the Atlantic purely on reputation of the GM. Alan builds things like this. The Brookly system has a nice collection of depth, volume and star-power, the last coming from Rookie Leaguer Ramon Martinez, who I’ll always probably think of as Pedro’s brother. Regardless, the lefty is going to be very good, but he’s an R-ball guy, so take that with a couple very big spoonfuls of sugar.

At 24, perhaps Harrara shouldn’t count00or at least should be discounted heavily, but at the end of the day, this is kind of what the Robins do—shuffling guys up and down the chain as they want them or need them. So, shrug…

#2: Jacksonville
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Fernando Guerrero AA 19 R 80 7 8 10 95 6 NEU 9
Ángel Gómez S A 18 L 75 7 7 11 95 9 NEU 9
Jorge López S A 19 L 65 6 7 8 89 6 NEU 7
Tyler Simmons doesn’t have anyone ready to pitch right this minute, but what he’s got is good enough and close enough to rate the second slot. Again, your mileage can vary as far as how you value different qualities, but Fernando Guerrero is tearing up AA for the second season in a row, and is probably only a stuff budge away from being promoted (where have I heard that before?). Gomez and Lopez in Short A make a nice little mini-wave behind him.

If it all works out, the Hurricane’s will have a solid and cheap core bullpen as early as 2042.


#3 Rockville
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Jason Hone R 18 R 80 9 7 8 97 10 GB 8
Raúl Correa AAA 20 R 65 11 5 5 101 3 NEU 9
Alfonso Guzmán AA 20 R 50 6 6 7 92 9 GB 3
Danny Leach R 19 R 50 7 6 5 92 8 GB 5
Yasuhiro Nagai R 18 R 50 6 5 7 95 9 NEU 3
Danny Turnage R 19 R 50 8 5 4 96 8 GB 4
One could make an argument that Rockville, with Correa ready to make some kid of impact now, and R-baller Jason hone deep in the slot behind could be #2. If you’re inclined to do that, though, you have to weight the whole gang of 50s in the system pretty highly. I like depth like this as well as the next guy, but let’s not go too far overboard. I’m good with them at #3, all while acknowledging that Aaron’s got the system well arranged to take advantage if the bump-a-beast waves its magic wand his way.

#4 New Orleans
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Renato Lacerda AAA 21 R 80 8 7 9 96 8 NEU 7
Manuel Cruz S A 18 R 65 7 7 8 97 4 NEU 1
Luis Mendoza A 20 R 50 6 6 8 93 4 GB 10
We’ll try to refrain from letting the fact that Renato Lacerda spurned our offer sheet a year earlier affect how we see him. The fact is that he’s a hard-throwing 21-year-old and he’s ready now. That’s pretty good. Mendoza is probably a bit under-scored at an “50” and he’s moving along well enough. And now that Cruz has stepped out of rookie ball, he’s halfway toward being of stronger interest.

Ultimately, the Crawdads’ bullpen is getting a little long in the tooth at the BA level, so you’d prefer to have one or two more decent arms readying now…but for what it is, the New Orleans pen has some value.

#5 Montreal
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Jorge Hernández A 20 R 65 7 7 8 97 4 NEU 1
José Soto AA 22 R 60 8 5 7 100 10 GB 9
Tomás Álvarez S A 18 L 50 6 9 6 93 3 EX GB 8
The good news for Blazer fans is that the team is creating a solid set of bullpen arms that should hit at roughly the same time frame—within a season or two of each other, thereby providing value and cost control. The bad news is that the timeframe we’re talking about probably opens in early 2041.

Jose Soto is probably the best of the three. He’s starting right now, which makes sense, but unless the changeup comes in he’s really pointed to the bullpen—and he’s 22 so time is ticking. Hernandez looks starterish, too, which is why the Montreal front office is starting him in A-ball. His concern is stamina, however. Which brings us to Alvarez, who, in reality could wind up being the best of them. He’s just now begun starting in Short-A, but the same lack of a solid third off-speed pitch is going to limit him if he doesn’t find one.

It all adds up to say that there’s a lot of uncertainty in this selection and an upside that isn’t far-fetched to see actually happen.

#6 Charm City
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
John Wilson A 21 R 80 10 7 5 94 7 GB 8
Héctor Meléndez S A 18 R 55 5 7 8 91 8 GB 8
I started with the Jimmies up above Montreal, then decided that, while the system they have is pretty good, it’s horizon is too far away to say much. 2036 supplemental pick John Wilson has now found his way to A-ball, and is showing he belongs—but at 21, that’s about where he should be. Melendez is a cutter/curve righty who seems to look better on paper than he’s shown in games. There’s lots of time left for him, though, and my guess is he’ll wind up fine.

There’s mot much else here, though.

#7 Atlantic City
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
Carlos Flores R 18 L 60 9 5 5 94 7 NEU 8
Govaart Coster R 19 R 50 9 6 4 97 5 NEU 3
I like Flores and Coster fine for what they are. I’d love to have them in the YS9’s sorry excuse for a Rookie-level pitching staff. But, the facts here that Gambler fans care about is that both these guys are at least three seasons away, and other than them, there’s not a lot to build on.

#8 Charlotte
Name Lev Age T POT STU MOV CON VELO STM G/F HLD
None--------------------------------
To be determined
# # # As usual, here’s a visual…
2039-ML-RANKS-RP-ATLANTIC.PNG
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Re: BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by bcslouck » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:03 pm

If Meléndez velocity keeps up-ticking, he may end up a SP conversion. So it may be worse next year unless I draft someone or someone bumps. :shrug:
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Re: BBA Minor Leagues – Relief Corps of 2039

Post by ae37jr » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:14 pm

A lot of our future bullpen is in the BBA already(Bobo, Good, Akiyama, and Joe). I figure RP are usually affordable so no need to hold them down. Plus we have a ton of 40-55 SP. Many of them will end up in the pen when the dust settles. We are no doubt deep in the pen.
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