2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

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2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by jleddy » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:10 pm

This series is the Brewster's version of FanGraph's annual MLB Trade Value series, which was inspired by, if not ripped-off from, Bill Simmons’ NBA trade value column on ESPN.com back in the day. Essentially, the concept is to put together a ranking of the most valuable individual assets in the game, which is a different discussion than who the best players in the game are. Bobby Lynch is obviously one of the best pitchers on the planet, but as the Jackrabbits are seemingly finding out as they shop him around the league, Lynch is significantly devalued on the trade market, even though he’s still a terrific talent, because of his pending free agency. Age, contract status, salary, injury history and position scarcity all come into play, not just the numbers on the back of the players' baseball cards.

So, this list is my (along with the help of Ron Collins of Yellow Springs, as well as Fred Holmes of Mexico City and Chris Robillard of Edmonton) attempt to figure out what players have the most value in the league heading into the 2039 trade deadline. Essentially, the best way to look at a player’s placement on this list is to ask “Would you trade him, straight up, for any of the guys listed ahead of him?”

Over the next few days -- in what will become an annual feature published before each trade deadline -- I will lay out my view of the fifty most valuable assets in the Brewster Baseball Association and at the conclusion, many GMs have expressed interest in a Trade Value Special podcast before the 8/15/19 trade deadline sim for the 2039 BBA season.

A few notes about what you'll see below:
  • 2039 WAR figures are through July 20, 2039 and projected out for the rest of the season
  • Salary figures in grey italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2039 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Today we start at #50 and work our way up to #31:

- - - - - - - - - -

#50 - Arthur Dempster, Rockville, SP
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Heading into 2039, Dempster was hands down the best pitcher in the Brewster, considering he led the league in WAR among pitchers in 2037 and 2038, as well as being the only starter with a current rating of 80. Rockville was right to extend him the maximum six years ($132M) before the '38 season, even as it carries into Dempster's thirties. While he's not on pace to lead in WAR for a third-straight season, Dempster is have another fine season but with $88M left on his deal, a significant number of teams can’t even consider acquiring him.


#49 - Weaver Ripley, Phoenix, CF
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Through his first two full-seasons, Ripley has been a steady, above-average player (2.2 WAR in '37, 2.6 WAR in '38) for Phoenix. After two seasons of making the playoffs, the Talons look like possibly the best team in the league thanks to jumps in production like Ripley this year. Despite pitch recognition and contact issues, Ripley looks like a young, solid centerfielder who's entering the expensive portion of arbitration.


#48 - Félix Román, Boise, CF
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One of only four minor leaguers to make the top 50, Román looks to be a franchise-player once his overall skills catch up to the potential that made him the #5 overall selection in last year's draft. Currently rated the #8th-best prospect in the game, Román could immediately add skill to a Boise roster in great need of it or be used in trade talks to stockpile additional players.


#47 - Pedro Díaz, Rockville, SS
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While Díaz's offensive ratings don't jump off the page, it's hard not to find great value in a young, cost-controlled Diamond Glove-level shortstop with the potential to hit .300, steal 30 bases and hit a ton of doubles and triples from the left side. Being called up at 18-years-old means Díaz will already start making above the league minimum starting in 2041, but with winning a second-consecutive Landis in 2037 with Díaz aboard was probably worth it in the end for Rockville.


#46 - Rashardo Menne III, Vancouver, 3B
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Menne will be heading into his final season of arbitration next year at only 24 years of age, an occurrence happening more often in the Brewster thanks to so many players debuting before at 18 and 19. Menne is on-pace for a career-high in WAR and only Valencia's Ángel Zalapa is younger than Menne (17.9) with more career WAR (20.2). Due for a good-sized contract soon and tagged as injury prone (six trips to the Injured List as a professional), Menne's value may never be higher.


#45 - Amayas Moelling, Huntsville, SP
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Despite ranked as the pre-season 10th-best prospect in the Brewster, Huntsville was probably smart to delay Moelling's major league debut until late May. Some may think Moelling could have used a full year in Triple A, as the Namibian pitcher has been so-so but his scouts love his talent and once he figures it all out, he'll be a likely source of highly valuable, cost-controlled innings for the Phantoms.


#44 - Alan Williamson, Des Moines, 2B
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Williamson is a great story: an 18th-round selection in 2034, the New York-native put up pedestrian numbers in his first four seasons in the minors. After a surprise call-up in 2037, Williamson continued to barely provide replacement-level production...until this season. Williamson was named to his first All-Star team thanks to the highest WAR-total among all second basemen. Despite his track record, Williamson earns his ranking thanks to his ability to play both middle infield positions, where pickings are slim across the league. Any dip in his future production will likely mean a huge drop in his value moving forward, which raises the question if Des Moines, currently three games under .500 and in fourth place in the division, could be considering selling Williamson high at the trade deadline or in the off-season.


#43 - Charlie Iron-Knife, Phoenix, SP
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Iron-Knife is one of only two players (Pedro Díaz of Rockville) to make the Top 50 with only a potential rating of 60. Not surprisingly, Iron-Knife spent seven seasons in the minors before debuting last year. As a prospect, Iron-Knife was ranked as high as the 5th overall and despite taking longer than most players to make the majors, Iron-Knife's first season-and-a-half with the Talons has been extremely promising. The question is how long can the southpaw, with just two pitches and slightly-above average skills, keep it up while under team control? The answer will determine Iron-Knife's value moving forward.


#42 - Juan Mendoza, San Fernando, 3B
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After this season, the three-time All-Star will only have one year left of team control but is still valuable thanks to a heady two-year deal in January 2038 to buy out Mendoza's last two years of arbitration. While his ratings and skills don't jump off the page, Mendoza has been incredibly consistent as one of the best third basemen in the league over the last few seasons. Mendoza's value beyond 2040 will depend on his next contract: a team-friendly extension or will he test free agency and cash in with a long-term deal?


#41 - Kidane Ata, Nashville, SP/CF
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Ata is a tantalizing two-way player who hasn't been able to piece together his pitching and hitting talents all at once. Some wonder if the 2036 #3 overall pick needs to focus on one or the other, or it's just a matter of time until he's a tour de force in both aspects of the game. Ata's slow start to his career has lowered his future arbitration projections, which one would argue is a sign that he's wasting his cheapest years trying to figure things out. However Nashville handles it, Ata will be an extremely interesting test-case in the Brewster and will most likely provide volatile value in the future, one way or another.


#40 - Aki Kondo, San Antonio, SP
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The Brewster's strikeout king, Kondo has the largest remaining contract AND highest per year total amongst the top 50, but Kondo's contract is one of the more interesting in the league. San Antonio is potentially only on the hook until 2042, as the Japanese flame-thrower can opt-out before 2043 and again before 2045. Additionally, the Outlaws have a team option in 2044. It's unknown if the team would want Kondo's deal off the books, but that's still three-plus seasons away. Even at his cost, Kondo is a difference-maker on the mound and there's plenty of less-talented pitchers with worse contracts in the league.


#39 - Júlio Barajas, Rockville, RF
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Barajas is slashing an impressive .333/.395/.735 in his first 29 games in the BBA as an 18-year-old. A late first-rounder in last year's draft, the 6'6" slugger already looks like a force to be reckoned with at the plate. Despite already producing in his pre-arbitration years, Barajas' value is a bit tempered as he looks like a future designated hitter, which isn't the most exciting profile for a teenager. At best, he could be a slightly-below-average glove in right field whose Puckett Award-potential bat helps carry Rockville for the next six-plus seasons.


#38 - Joey Newhouse, Twin Cities, 3B
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The 10th overall selection in the 2034 BBA Draft, Newhouse has seen his production steadily improve in each of the last four seasons despite batting a myriad of injuries. "The Dart" doesn't hit like a typical first baseman, where his glove profiles best, but he's at least passable at the hot corner thanks to a strong arm. Newhouse's value largely hinges on continuing his upward trajectory, as his previously typical production won't be so tolerable as he enters his arbitration years.


#37 - Ángel García, San Fernando, 2B
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Thanks to a delightful $11.5M contract buying out his last three years of arbitration, García is one of the more valuable assets in the league despite hitting free agency after 2040. The Mexican second baseman, who was traded three times as a prospect before arriving in the majors in 2034, is having a career-year and was rewarded with his first All-Star honor. With an extensive injury history, García could be seen as a risk, so he very well might be more valuable to San Fernando than on the trade market.


#36 - Chris Kelly, Twin Cities, SP
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Of the 32 players making over $15M per season, Kelly is fifth youngest, so there's considerably less risk with his contract, even as a pitcher. While Kelly has yet to garner any awards or All-Star nods, scouts and front offices around the league love his skillset and are just waiting for him to breakout into a bona fide superstar. Locked up with a maximum six year extension before the 2039 season, Twin Cities has a solid, reliable ace in Kelly for the foreseeable future and any jump in production will make him only that much more valuable.


#35 - Zak Johnson, Hawaii, SP
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Johnson was the first overall pick out of college in 2037 and was immediately signed to a three-year, $3M major league contract, plus a signing bonus of $7.5M. "The Hitman" pitched less than 60 innings in the minors before making the Tropics rotation out of spring training last season and is more advanced than most players with his limited professional experience. There's no reason to believe that Johnson couldn't be an ace within two years at a huge bargain for Hawaii.


#34 - Danya Tchekanov, Long Beach, SP
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Despite not having the track record or BBA experience as Johnson, Tchekanov is ranked ahead due to his additional year of club control, slightly lower projected arbitration cost, and being slightly graded higher by scouts. That said, Long Beach's hopeful future ace will need to have a big finish to 2039 or start next season hot, or else he may not be worth Top 50 value this time next year.


#33 - Ronnie Hubbard, Louisville, CF
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Hubbard is currently the 19th youngest player in the majors and has the second-highest WAR under 21 years old. With pedigree (7th overall pick in 2038) and a five-tool profile at a defensive-demanding position, Hubbard looks like the type of young, talented player Louisville could build around alongside Semei Kwakou or used as a trade chip to add more quality players in order to fill holes towards a run at a future Landis title.


#32 - Pedro Rocha, Mexico City, SP
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Rocha just signed a three-year extension during this season, a deal that rewards both the team and player. Instead of going to arbitration, fan-favorite Rocha will earn on a lower-than-market annual basis, however it is guaranteed money and he can then try to break the bank in free agency at age 31. In return, the Aztecs get innings-eating pitcher on a short-term extension who's providing great production in what looks like a breakout season.


#31 - Edwin Gilliam, Calgary, SP
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The Pioneers have had the privilege of seeing Gilliam improve in each of his first three seasons in the majors, establishing himself as the ace on one of the best and youngest rotations in the Brewster. Despite very-good-but-not-elite skills, Gilliam has pitched as many hoped he would when he was selected in the first round of the 2033 Draft. "Crime Spree" is under team control for several more seasons but as he continues his assent into stardom, his arbitration figures will likely continue to rise as well.
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by indiansfan » Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:22 pm

This is great stuff! Glad to see my guy at #31, but he ain't going anywhere.
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by bigmike13 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:07 pm

This was awesome
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by crobillard » Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:13 pm

You and Ron have put a ton of work into this. I've been more of a spectator, but it was really cool seeing you both try to objectively evaluate between players. Phenomenal job to you both.

So many good players on this list. It's difficult to believe this is only 31-50. I love Iron Knife so much. I'm so sad he's not on the Jackrabbits. I think he's underrated by the game, but you're totally right, only having two pitches will always put a question mark over him. Very much like other pitchers I've put on the mound, Jesus Ramos and Hiroyuki Rin.

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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by StormZ_23 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:18 pm

This is great work, looking forward to the rest of the list
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by udlb58 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:32 pm

crobillard wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:13 pm
You and Ron have put a ton of work into this. I've been more of a spectator, but it was really cool seeing you both try to objectively evaluate between players. Phenomenal job to you both.

So many good players on this list. It's difficult to believe this is only 31-50. I love Iron Knife so much. I'm so sad he's not on the Jackrabbits. I think he's underrated by the game, but you're totally right, only having two pitches will always put a question mark over him. Very much like other pitchers I've put on the mound, Jesus Ramos and Hiroyuki Rin.
Except one of Charlie's pitches is a knuckleball, which means he only needs 2 pitches to be considered a starter by the game.
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by crobillard » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:33 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:32 pm
crobillard wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:13 pm
You and Ron have put a ton of work into this. I've been more of a spectator, but it was really cool seeing you both try to objectively evaluate between players. Phenomenal job to you both.

So many good players on this list. It's difficult to believe this is only 31-50. I love Iron Knife so much. I'm so sad he's not on the Jackrabbits. I think he's underrated by the game, but you're totally right, only having two pitches will always put a question mark over him. Very much like other pitchers I've put on the mound, Jesus Ramos and Hiroyuki Rin.
Except one of Charlie's pitches is a knuckleball, which means he only needs 2 pitches to be considered a starter by the game.
Oh, I didn't know that. Interesting.

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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by usnspecialist » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:48 pm

Iron-knife, Kondo and Williamson, 3 guys traded by me before they reached the majors!! I actually traded Garcia as well but got him back.
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by udlb58 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:21 pm

Considering AAV, I'd argue that Brett White is more valuable than Ripley, even with his horribly unlucky season. Who thinks his .240 BABIP and 3% HR rate are going to continue in the future? White needs less than half the WAR to have the same WAR/$ value of Ripley next year, plus he's signed to just $2m in 2040.
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by RonCo » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:00 pm

I admit to not being as big on Ripley as others, but I wouldn't mind having him around. :)
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by jleddy » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:15 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:21 pm
Considering AAV, I'd argue that Brett White is more valuable than Ripley, even with his horribly unlucky season. Who thinks his .240 BABIP and 3% HR rate are going to continue in the future? White needs less than half the WAR to have the same WAR/$ value of Ripley next year, plus he's signed to just $2m in 2040.
In the first version, White was #50 and Ripley was unranked, so you certainly have a case. In the end, I believe the leading factors were White's lower potential rating (60 v 70), Ripley's ability to play CF much better than White can handle the outfield corners, and the awful taste in our mouth from White's current negative WAR season were the reasons why Ripley narrowly edged out White.

Fast-forward a year from now: Ripley's salary is higher in arbitration and White is having a bounce-back season...there's no reason why White wouldn't be ranked higher between the two. It's such a compelling debate, I'd love to see it discussed in the podcast:

Brett White versus Weaver Ripley
Alex Ramirez versus Angel Zalapa
Liann-wei Mao versus Manuel Martinez
Jorge Álvarez versus Yrrigs Carpenter
...plus "Should a reliever ever be considered a Top 50 asset?" and "Should big dollar superstars (ie David Noboru and Hsin Mei) approaching 30 year of age ever be considered a Top 50 asset?"
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Re: 2039 BBA Trade Value Series: #50-#31

Post by udlb58 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:27 pm

jleddy wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:15 pm
udlb58 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:21 pm
Considering AAV, I'd argue that Brett White is more valuable than Ripley, even with his horribly unlucky season. Who thinks his .240 BABIP and 3% HR rate are going to continue in the future? White needs less than half the WAR to have the same WAR/$ value of Ripley next year, plus he's signed to just $2m in 2040.
In the first version, White was #50 and Ripley was unranked, so you certainly have a case. In the end, I believe the leading factors were White's lower potential rating (60 v 70), Ripley's ability to play CF much better than White can handle the outfield corners, and the awful taste in our mouth from White's current negative WAR season were the reasons why Ripley narrowly edged out White.

Fast-forward a year from now: Ripley's salary is higher in arbitration and White is having a bounce-back season...there's no reason why White wouldn't be ranked higher between the two. It's such a compelling debate, I'd love to see it discussed in the podcast:

Brett White versus Weaver Ripley
Alex Ramirez versus Angel Zalapa
Liann-wei Mao versus Manuel Martinez
Jorge Álvarez versus Yrrigs Carpenter
...plus "Should a reliever ever be considered a Top 50 asset?" and "Should big dollar superstars (ie David Noboru and Hsin Mei) approaching 30 year of age ever be considered a Top 50 asset?"
I definitely admire you guys doing this. I wish I had time for my Top 101 prospect lists again. I was only able to get partway through one here in the BBA before I realized the offseason was just too fast for me to do it.

I am definitely heartened by White having a higher BB% and lower K% than last year. His biggest WAR drops come from a BABIP 70 points lower than last year and his HR rate being halved from his first 1+ season in the BBA. I don't expect the power and BABIP will stay depressed.
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