2039 - BBA PAA

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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by JimBob2232 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:56 pm

Yay! I'm Average! (which is to say a HUGE improvement from last year)

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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by udlb58 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:15 pm

Huh. Still thought the infield defense would be better than it has been. The outfield D has held up nicely despite Rocky missing time twice and last year's LF Zimmer winner going down for a couple weeks.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:22 pm

Updated through this sim:

BBA DEFENSE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE: 8/3/2039
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
Hawaii Tropics42.01.91.01.246.1
Nashville Goats11.920.4-1.413.344.2
Rockville Pikemen37.71.00.12.441.2
Mexico City Aztecs16.818.30.03.138.2
Charm City Jimmies27.413.70.7-4.737.1
Las Vegas Hustlers17.110.3-2.93.628.1
Jacksonville Hurricanes-4.330.10.01.427.2
California Crusaders-0.525.9-1.21.525.7
Boise Spuds15.611.2-1.3-0.325.2
Yellow Springs Nine32.8-16.40.74.221.3
Phoenix Talons-0.413.6-1.96.017.3
Wichita Aviators-12.729.2-1.10.616.0
Brooklyn Robins12.0-0.30.92.615.2
Seattle Storm18.6-10.4-0.11.19.1
Huntsville Phantoms-6.9-1.4-0.712.93.9
Altantic City Gamblers-3.42.41.2-0.8-0.6
San Fernando Bears3.7-4.80.0-3.2-4.4
Des Moines Kernels6.5-17.50.93.3-6.7
Louisville Sluggers-8.8-6.41.93.1-10.1
Long Beach Surfers-15.90.34.0-2.3-13.9
New Orleans Crawdads-1.2-8.8-0.2-5.2-15.4
San Antonio Outlaws32.6-28.4-1.2-20.3-17.4
Montreal Blazers-17.9-11.60.71.8-27.1
Twin Cities River Monsters-30.0-1.31.1-2.2-32.4
Calgary Pioneers3.8-28.40.1-10.7-35.2
Edmonton Jackrabbits-2.1-25.9-1.2-6.4-35.6
Vancouver Mounties-42.73.1-0.61.3-38.9
Omaha Hawks-30.2-12.50.22.9-39.7
Valencia Stars-36.1-0.50.2-6.7-43.1
Madison Wolves-65.4-6.70.1-3.6-75.6
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by ae37jr » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:08 pm

Our fielding data is wonky as all heck right now. The league as a whole has a -248.8 zone rating and outfield assists are off the charts.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by crobillard » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:49 pm

I thought that with outfield assists. I've had so many. I don't know why my flyball defense so shitty.

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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:01 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:08 pm
Our fielding data is wonky as all heck right now. The league as a whole has a -248.8 zone rating and outfield assists are off the charts.
I've said it before...I don't trust that OOTP zone rating is what we think Zone Rating is. I fully admit I don't actually know what OOTP Zone Rating is, and I'm sure it's a "good" metric to use. But I don't trust that language because certain things don't make sense to me when I look under the hood.

One of the things that I like about what I'm doing here is that by definition it's clearly centered on what league average really is.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by jleddy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:03 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:08 pm
Our fielding data is wonky as all heck right now. The league as a whole has a -248.8 zone rating and outfield assists are off the charts.
Not sure what time period "right now" represents...I know you've got about 15 seasons under your belt and could be providing commentary over the last ten-plus years but both metrics are on par with the last four seasons since the last expansion.

BBA OFA are extremely high compared to MLB but my guess would be the use of game strategy sliders would be one possible reason...potentially teams and/or individual players are forced into being too aggressive on the base paths. I think the bigger "issue" (?) is that there are FIFTY outfielders in the BBA right now with OF arms ranked 10 or higher...and that doesn't count the 20 infielders with 10+ OF arms. That's ridiculous.

As for the zone rating, it obviously extremely skewed because of the pitching ZR...not sure what's going on there but if you disregard that, it seems normal.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:10 pm

StatsPlus ZR is better than OOTP's I suppose, for that reason.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by ae37jr » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:32 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:01 pm
I've said it before...I don't trust that OOTP zone rating is what we think Zone Rating is. I fully admit I don't actually know what OOTP Zone Rating is, and I'm sure it's a "good" metric to use. But I don't trust that language because certain things don't make sense to me when I look under the hood.

One of the things that I like about what I'm doing here is that by definition it's clearly centered on what league average really is.
Right or wrong though... wouldn't you think that in a game that crunches numbers to come up with outcomes... it would use it's own numbers?

I like all data and looking at things from 100 different angles. It helps in making educated guesses on things not easily visable. So in no way am I knocking or discrediting any of your work. I just wouldn't totally discredit OOTP's numbers in favor of statsplus or your results. Even if it makes absolutely no sense, OOTP's numbers are the only ones with any possibility of impacting the game itself.

Actually I feel PAA and ZR are two completely different things anyway. Which is why I like this. PAA is distinctly about securing outs VS hits. But zone rating could be argued to have more of an impact on cutting balls off in the gap and turning doubles into singles or keeping line drives in the infield rather then going down the line. But like I said. I kinda take everything in for what it's worth and try to come up with a cumulative value.

Just going by game data I could argue that Brooklyn is one of the best defensive teams in the Brewster(#1 in fewest errors, #2 in ZR(Game and Statsplus) and sb%). But seeing PAA shows that there are a lot of plays we could be making and aren't. So I need to figure out what that means. Are we just not clutch defenders? Does the heavy winds at McDermott Park play havoc on flyballs? Or maybe we are just unlucky in that fast runners beat out bang bang plays at first base.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:38 pm

I don't mean to discredit the game's stat. It's just not quite what I think of when I think of zone rating. Of course, Zone rating is different depending on who is calculating it, I suppose, so ...
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:44 pm

Update this month...

BBA DEFENSE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE: 8/31/2039
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
Rockville Pikemen44.010.50.94.059.3
Nashville Goats9.436.4-1.714.358.5
Mexico City Aztecs20.625.31.14.851.8
Hawaii Tropics41.04.51.0-0.546.0
Jacksonville Hurricanes3.729.4-0.21.033.9
Las Vegas Hustlers15.515.9-2.02.031.4
Phoenix Talons4.925.1-3.14.130.9
Charm City Jimmies29.06.41.6-6.430.5
Boise Spuds15.117.5-2.7-1.328.5
Brooklyn Robins12.76.72.45.527.3
Wichita Aviators-0.428.5-3.30.125.0
California Crusaders0.125.4-1.30.624.8
Yellow Springs Nine28.0-9.51.82.623.0
Altantic City Gamblers-5.010.41.80.07.3
San Fernando Bears10.2-3.2-1.0-2.04.0
Huntsville Phantoms-12.60.4-1.014.41.2
Seattle Storm1.5-7.2-0.53.9-2.3
Des Moines Kernels8.8-22.01.83.0-8.4
Long Beach Surfers-11.3-1.04.0-2.6-10.9
Louisville Sluggers-8.7-9.31.53.0-13.5
New Orleans Crawdads-6.1-14.5-0.3-4.0-24.9
Montreal Blazers-22.1-9.20.50.9-30.0
San Antonio Outlaws32.8-46.9-0.2-20.0-34.3
Omaha Hawks-26.7-13.40.94.5-34.6
Calgary Pioneers9.2-32.30.0-12.3-35.4
Twin Cities River Monsters-30.4-10.91.2-2.4-42.5
Valencia Stars-37.9-3.50.3-6.2-47.3
Vancouver Mounties-50.5-3.6-0.90.2-54.8
Edmonton Jackrabbits-6.0-40.8-2.3-6.1-55.2
Madison Wolves-68.9-15.3-0.3-5.0-89.5
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:07 pm

Madison's IF defense is impressively bad.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by jleddy » Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:47 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:07 pm
Madison's IF defense is impressively bad.
I want to see how bad it can get...start Jon Mick at short!
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:27 pm

Through the end of the season...

BBA DEFENSE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE: 9/29/2039
TEAMGBFBLD(IF)LD(OF)TOTAL
Nashville Goats7.746.0-1.516.268.4
Mexico City Aztecs25.434.70.35.365.7
Hawaii Tropics50.96.21.1-1.956.3
Charm City Jimmies40.112.41.7-3.450.9
Yellow Springs Nine46.2-2.11.71.247.0
Rockville Pikemen32.06.80.95.044.7
Boise Spuds15.422.4-1.80.836.8
Las Vegas Hustlers19.016.3-1.90.533.9
Brooklyn Robins1.511.23.510.826.8
Jacksonville Hurricanes-5.131.1-0.2-0.825.0
Phoenix Talons4.019.4-4.05.524.8
Wichita Aviators-1.224.8-2.12.323.8
Altantic City Gamblers-4.118.11.92.518.5
California Crusaders-16.224.1-1.2-1.84.9
Huntsville Phantoms-7.2-11.30.218.1-0.2
San Fernando Bears14.7-12.3-0.9-5.1-3.6
Long Beach Surfers-12.99.24.2-6.5-6.1
Des Moines Kernels13.3-23.40.92.3-6.8
Louisville Sluggers2.2-11.3-0.81.3-8.6
Seattle Storm1.2-15.3-0.45.7-8.7
Omaha Hawks-29.9-7.40.97.8-28.6
Montreal Blazers-16.0-12.00.6-1.2-28.6
New Orleans Crawdads-20.9-15.7-0.2-0.9-37.7
Calgary Pioneers10.4-35.70.0-13.5-38.9
Twin Cities River Monsters-34.2-10.51.4-2.6-45.9
Valencia Stars-31.0-9.70.3-8.5-49.0
San Antonio Outlaws33.3-58.0-0.5-25.3-50.4
Edmonton Jackrabbits-6.3-36.2-3.1-7.8-53.4
Vancouver Mounties-55.0-0.6-0.81.0-55.4
Madison Wolves-77.2-21.4-0.1-7.0-105.6
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by GoldenOne » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:30 pm

Might be the only list you see Nashville at #1 for for a while.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by ThePreyingManta » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:07 pm

Oof. Madison is quite the outlier. Big changes coming soon.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by crobillard » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:12 pm

I don't really understand this. I thought my defense was good :(

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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by RonCo » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:35 pm

Looking at the sub-file (in the results package I dropped elsewhere) for Edmonton's outfield says your center field was pretty okay, your left field was 'meh' and your right field was horrible unless the ball was hit right to him.

PLAYS ABOVE AVERAGE BY ZONE
PLAYS9L9.089.08R8L78.07.07L
SHALLOW-1.8-2.4-4.41.5-1.7-0.42.4-3.8
MID-2.80.4-4.70.40.5-0.6-0.4-3.5
DEEP2.3-2.1-2.5-0.81.3-2.3-0.4-1.2
EXTRA-DEEP0.00.01.0-6.7-2.21.30.00.0
Actually, it looks like your CFs had issues in deep blasts, too.
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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by crobillard » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:29 pm

That's so interesting. So Mitch Dalrymple is typically in RF. He's been a gold glove fielder for awhile until this year. I have to see if he lumped in defense and I missed it. William Wood is usually in CF. I know he's probably better made for the corners though. Juan Garcia spent nearly all of his games in left. I expected him to have more issues tbh. I think this offseason I'll try to make some changes. Thanks for the breakdown.

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Re: 2039 - BBA PAA

Post by nerfHerder » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:23 pm

I love having solid defense, almost to a fault. I’ve learned to give and take to get a little more offense if needed, but I love when a guy can glove it.
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