Fun Tool of the Day: BBA/MLB Similarity

[RonCo]

I blame this whole thing on Joshua, who wrote me note saying “Is there a way in OOTP to compare BBA players to MLB players by similarity score?”

As far as I know, there is not…but it reminded that way, way back in the day of the FOBL, I had created a spreadsheet tool to do just that—using Bill James’ work to compare my OOTP players to guys of the, ahem, “real world.” I remembered it was great fun seeing who Lewis Hubbell was most like, and Lee Mckittrick, and even lowly George Alvarez. There was something in this that made these guys feel even more real.

So I dug it out.

Of course, the database was completely out of date (at least 15 years too old). So I used the trusty old Interwebs to pull a fresh Lahman database, and did a half hour’s work pasting together career stats and re-connecting all the old formulas. And Viola! (or as I prefer to think walla!), I had my tool.

So, heart pounding, I went to the game and started pulling data from BBA players, literally dying to see what I’d find.

Since Joshua had asked, I started with Atlantic City…and if you’re starting with Atlantic City, you have to go to Adrian Salazar and Bucky Dornster, right? I plugged Salazar’s stats in and did the Excel sorting magic on MLB players, and found that the MLB guy most similar to Adrian Salazar is … J. D. Martinez.

Here’s the full list:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
J. D. Martinez	OF	2011	2018	928.7
Jose Abreu	1B	2014	2018	916.8
Don Hurst	1B	1928	1934	896.4
Glenn Davis	1B	1984	1993	894.2
Nolan Arenado	3B	2013	2018	886.6
Bryce Harper	OF	2012	2018	878.5
Anthony Rizzo	1B	2011	2018	877.5
Yoenis Cespedes	OF	2012	2018	877.0
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	2011	2018	871.5
Jim Gentile	1B	1957	1966	870.1

Pretty cool, eh? There are oddities, of course. OOTP players don’t perform exactly like MLB players, so sometimes the actual similarity scores will be moderately low. Martinez’s 928.7 is not super close, but easily within shouting distance. Jose Abreu’s 926 isn’t bad either. I also like looking down the list and seeing the occasional odd entry like 1934’s Don Hurst.

Regardless, though, this is a pretty solid list of players, and (for me anyway) puts a kind of image in mind when I think of quality.

Adrian Salazar is J.D. Martinez with a chaser cocktail that includes parts of Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo, and Paul Goldschmidt.

Yes Very cool.

Here’s Bucky Dornster:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Casey Blake	3B	1999	2011	931.9
Ray Boone	3B	1948	1960	927.2
Sam Chapman	OF	1938	1951	922.5
Bobby Higginson	OF	1995	2005	918.9
Ty Wigginton	3B	2002	2013	918.9
Melvin Mora	3B	1999	2011	916.7
Hank Bauer	OF	1948	1961	913.3
Al Smith	OF	1953	1964	909.3
Wally Moon	OF	1954	1965	908.2

Now this is interesting. First, there are no guys with 900 scores, so Dornster is an unusual player by “real life” standards. And look at that wild list of eras! Ray Boone from the 60s, Hank Bauer and Wally Moon from the 50s, Sam Chapman from the 40s. Casey Blake is his number 1 guy, and he played in the 2000s.

**** Edit: I had to update this list from the first posting due to thick fingers on my part. Dornster actually does have 900+ comps, but they are still from all over the place when it comes to eras.

I like this, too. Bucky Dornster is kind of like that Cadillac you build from parts over the years. Tell me that doesn’t get your mind going on what he might be like to watch play from a box seat down the third base line.

I’m going to be doing a bunch more of these…and I’ll post them as I go…but in the meantime I’ll stop here to actually post the spreadsheet tool along with some instructions so you can play with it yourself. It’s a little fragile, meaning you have to do it right or you can break it…but it’s been great fun.

[RonCo]

Here's the spreadsheet: http://www.typosphere.com/Similarity-2018-batting.xlsx

To use it:

1) Go to the "BBA Players" tab
2) In the Yellow cells, enter the player's position and stats
3) Go to the "MLB Players-Similarity" tab
4) Select the whole spreadsheet, and then "Data/Sort" by Similarity (Largest to Smallest)

That gives you the list.

1) If you run guys, I'd love to see you post their top tens.
2) If you don't want to mess with it, drop a note here with guys you'd like to see run and I'll see if I can do them later tonight.

[RonCo]

Here's Jon Mick

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Mark Teixeira	1B	2003	2016	888.2
Ryan Howard	1B	2004	2016	884.2
Juan Gonzalez	OF	1989	2005	861.7
Mo Vaughn	1B	1991	2003	860.0
Joe Adcock	1B	1950	1966	858.9
Albert Belle	OF	1989	2000	858.8
Dick Allen	1B	1963	1977	856.3
Prince Fielder	1B	2005	2016	855.1
Nelson Cruz	OF	2005	2018	854.1
Gil Hodges	1B	1943	1963	853.8

And Mons Raider:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Bip Roberts	2B	1986	1998	867.6
Johnny Pesky	SS	1942	1954	865.8
Johnny Temple	2B	1952	1964	842.3
Woody English	SS	1927	1938	834.3
Bobby Avila	2B	1949	1959	833.4
Tony Womack	2B	1993	2006	832.4
Max Bishop	2B	1924	1935	830.7
Fernando Vina	2B	1993	2004	830.4
Jose Altuve	2B	2011	2018	828.9
Eddie Stanky	2B	1943	1953	828.3

Bip Roberts! Oh, my god, I love this.

[jleddy]

THIS. IS. AWESOME.

I ran Bucharest's best player and the top result that came back is Nikki Johnson, a sophomore softball player out of Colorado.

(Note: @RonCo, link you provided is broken/mispelled...add another 't' to 'batting' and it works.)

[jleddy]

I wanted to see what the hubbub was about this Sawyer Silk character...seems like it checks out:

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Name			POS	StartYr		EndYr		Similarity
Willie Stargell		OF	1962		1982		856.4
Carlos Delgado		1B	1993		2009		843.0
Jeff Bagwell		1B	1991		2005		840.1
Joe DiMaggio		OF	1936		1951		832.5
Vladimir Guerrero	OF	1996		2011		829.9
Duke Snider		OF	1947		1964		827.4
Larry Walker		OF	1989		2005		826.8
Mickey Mantle		OF	1951		1968		800.5
Frank Thomas		1B	1990		2008		799.9
Manny Ramirez		OF	1993		2011		799.6

[RonCo]

(Note: @RonCo, link you provided is broken/mispelled...add another 't' to 'batting' and it works.)
[/@RonCo
Fixed

[HoosierVic]

For the heck of it, I ran Norris Rutledge, Phantoms first baseman:

Dick Allen 901.9
Johny Mize 849.8
Juan Gonzalez 843.9
Mark Teixeira 842.8
Albert Belle 840.1
Gil Hodges 833.8
Ryan Braun 829.6
Lance Berkman 827.7
Norm Cash 824.6
Mo Vaughn 822.5

You could be in worse company ...

[RonCo]

Staying in the JLA...Charm City this time...here's Carlton Winson:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Troy Glaus	3B	1998	2010	846.9
Ralph Kiner	OF	1946	1955	839.8
Jay Buhner	OF	1987	2001	826.1
Darryl Strawberry	OF	1983	1999	816.0
Dean Palmer	3B	1989	2003	814.8
Giancarlo Stanton	OF	2010	2018	807.3
Nelson Cruz	OF	2005	2018	798.5
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2005	2018	790.8
Mark Reynolds	3B	2007	2018	790.2
Hank Sauer	OF	1941	1959	787.6

Love the Troy Glaus comp, though that 846 is slight. It's interesting that most of his similarities are with outfielders. And this list is generaly people who had careers of 12+ seasons, while Winson has 10 under his belt. It will be interesting to see how he winds up.

[RonCo]

Staying in the JLA...let's look at Brooklyn for a minute, dwelling on JJ McQuade, and Juan Sweetworld

Here's McQuade:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Jed Lowrie	SS	2008	2018	934.9
Yuniesky Betancourt	SS	2005	2013	927.9
Deivi Cruz	SS	1997	2005	922.8
Felipe Lopez	SS	2001	2011	921.6
Stephen Drew	SS	2006	2017	921.5
Brandon Crawford	SS	2011	2018	916.3
Dickie Thon	SS	1979	1993	912.1
Eddie Bressoud	SS	1956	1967	910.6
Jeff Blauser	SS	1987	1999	909.9
Eric McNair	SS	1929	1942	906.7

Jed Lowrie and Brandon Crawford are modern comps (and Stephen Drew). I love that Dickie Thon shows up here. As soon as I saw his name I locked on ans said "yes." There's a guy who had moments of greatness, but never got over the hump after his beaning. I also remeber him becaues he was from South Bend, where I lived for awhile growing up.

Moving to Sweetworld:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Carlos Gonzalez	OF	2008	2018	911.9
Dmitri Young	OF	1996	2008	905.5
Sid Gordon	OF	1941	1955	902.2
Rondell White	OF	1993	2007	901.9
Brian Jordan	OF	1992	2006	900.4
Richie Zisk	OF	1971	1983	900.4
Jeff Heath	OF	1936	1949	894.2
Carl Everett	OF	1993	2006	892.8
Jackie Jensen	OF	1950	1961	892.4
Bobby Higginson	OF	1995	2005	891.0

One of the issues with this version of similarity is that it doesn't separate CF and corner outfield. The data just isn't there. THat said, purely on the offensive end, you see Sweetworld lining up with better than middling corner outfielders from the MLB--several of whom also played a bit or more CF. His best comp is a 911.9 connection to newly signed Cub Carlos Gonzalez. I like seeing Carl Everett and Jackie Jensen in there.

This is great fun, eh?

[RonCo]

Moving through the JLS, here's a couple dudes from Rockville: Chip Puckett and Jin-Song Xuan.

Here's Puckett:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Charlie Hollocher	SS	1918	1924	907.7
Fresco Thompson	2B	1925	1934	885.8
Topper Rigney	SS	1922	1927	883.2
Cotton Tierney	2B	1920	1925	875.6
Francisco Lindor	SS	2015	2018	875.5
Johnny Hodapp	2B	1925	1933	873.6
Xander Bogaerts	SS	2013	2018	871.7
Solly Hemus	SS	1949	1959	871.0
Alex Cintron	SS	2001	2009	865.5
Didi Gregorius	SS	2012	2018	859.8

Puckett's a guy who doesn't have a lot of super-close comps, mostly because of his combo of bat and steals. In fact most of this list probably comp most closely for Pucket's double/triple/average numbers put up in similar total of games. Best modern-day comps are Lindor and Bogaerts, who both have more raw power than Puckett. I think I love that his top four comps are from teh 20s and 30s dead ball era. If Pucket played in a league where power wasn't so dominant, he'd be, like, a top 5 kind of marquee player.


Moving to Xaun:

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Homer Summa	OF	1920	1930	966.5
Eddie Brown	OF	1920	1928	957.6
Lance Richbourg	OF	1921	1932	940.1
Pat Duncan	OF	1915	1924	940.0
Dick Porter	OF	1929	1934	939.6
George Stone	OF	1903	1910	938.2
Debs Garms	OF	1932	1945	932.3
Harry Walker	OF	1940	1955	930.8
Birdie Cree	OF	1908	1915	928.9
Buck Jordan	1B	1927	1938	928.3

Talk about your deadball era player. Xaun does not walk and does not strike out. He hits an average north of .300. The biggest areas of separation from these guys is that they walk more than Xuan, and Xuan runs more. Otherwise, ignoring the social issues of the time, the guy would have fit right in.

[RonCo]

Running short of time, I'll do one guy from Montreal...and, of course, it has to be Rupert Grant.

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Dave Kingman	OF	1971	1986	807.4
Boog Powell	1B	1961	1977	797.5
Roy Sievers	1B	1949	1965	787.7
Lee May	1B	1965	1982	784.8
Norm Cash	1B	1958	1974	783.8
Ryan Howard	1B	2004	2016	783.3
Joe Adcock	1B	1950	1966	775.8
Frank Howard	OF	1958	1973	773.9
Mark Teixeira	1B	2003	2016	770.0
Rocky Colavito	OF	1955	1968	769.8

Glad I picked Grant, even though these similarity scores are not grand. Grant just flat-out strikes our too much for real world managers to swallow. I suppose that if we had to actually watch these guys, we'd react the same way, too. Dunno. But Grant has struck out 2,310 times. Or, as comp Norm Cash would say, assuming 550 plate appearances in a season, he played over four years without touching the ball. Of the comps on the list, Grant has struck out at least 500 times more than any of them.

So, yeah...the scores aren't too high, but Dave Kingman, you ain't seen nothing, man. Boog Powell (I loved Boog), sure enough. Lee Freaking May...righto...

Grant was the perfect guy to do in order to center my head on who Rupert Grant is.

[jleddy]

Otherwise, ignoring the social issues of the time, the guy would have fit right in.

[ae37jr]

Rupert Grant is Kong. That is the best one yet.

[recte44]

Turns out Gervasio Ridder is pretty good.

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Vladimir Guerrero	OF	1996	2011	897.7
Miguel Cabrera	1B	2003	2018	876.7
Todd Helton	1B	1997	2013	872.6
Carlos Delgado	1B	1993	2009	862.6
Jeff Bagwell	1B	1991	2005	861.0
Andres Galarraga	1B	1985	2004	853.7
Orlando Cepeda	1B	1958	1974	851.1
Paul Konerko	1B	1997	2014	837.0
Larry Walker	OF	1989	2005	836.1
Jim Rice	OF	1974	1989	828.3

[recte44]

MLB has never seen a player quite like Alfredo Martinez.

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Mark McGwire	1B	1986	2001	796.9
Jose Canseco	OF	1985	2001	789.0
Ralph Kiner	OF	1946	1955	775.0
Albert Belle	OF	1989	2000	771.4
Jim Edmonds	OF	1993	2010	768.6
Lance Berkman	OF	1999	2013	768.1
Juan Gonzalez	OF	1989	2005	765.1
Adam Dunn	OF	2001	2014	762.8
Frank Howard	OF	1958	1973	750.3
Rocky Colavito	OF	1955	1968	750.0

[recte44]

To everyone who kept Riley Hinson out of the Hall for years after I finally argued you to death....

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Joe Torre	C	1960	1977	695.2
Ted Simmons	C	1968	1988	691.0
Victor Martinez	C	2002	2018	681.7
Gary Carter	C	1974	1992	658.8
Gabby Hartnett	C	1922	1941	652.6
Yogi Berra	C	1946	1965	646.8
Carlton Fisk	C	1969	1993	639.4
Johnny Bench	C	1967	1983	635.2
Ivan Rodriguez	C	1991	2011	634.5
Jorge Posada	C	1995	2011	630.4

[ae37jr]

Holden Blackwell

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Name	POS	StartYr	EndYr	Similarity
Enos Cabell	3B	1972	1986	902.3
Matty Alou	OF	1960	1974	894.3
Milt Stock	3B	1913	1926	890.2
Heinie Groh	3B	1912	1927	886.8
Mickey Rivers	OF	1970	1984	882.4
Curt Flood	OF	1956	1971	870.5
Joe Dugan	3B	1917	1931	863.0
Kevin Seitzer	3B	1986	1997	862.4
Buddy Lewis	3B	1935	1949	858.4

Joe Dugan? Holden is definitely going to my next manager now.

[HoosierVic]

Here’s Dave Hall, Phantoms OF/DH:

Khris Davis 969.9
Henry Rodriguez 939.6
Carlos Quentin 937.4
Tony Conigliaro 928.4
Yoenis Cespedes 923.8
Luke Scott. 919.4
Ron Kittle 918.5
Jim Gentile 908.1
Jay Gibbons. 905.6
Jim Lemon. 901.4

I especially like seeing Conigliaro and Kittle in there ...

[HoosierVic]

And one more: Resurrection Santos of the Chicago Black Sox:

Vada Pinson OF 1958 1975 909.2
Steve Finley OF 1989 2007 899.8
Dave Parker OF 1973 1991 894.0
Torii Hunter OF 1997 2015 878.0
Steve Garvey 1B 1969 1987 872.7
Garret Anderson OF 1994 2010 872.2
Al Oliver OF 1968 1985 870.1
Bernie Williams OF 1991 2006 865.6
Chili Davis OF 1981 1999 861.5
Ruben Sierra OF 1986 2006 857.3

Santos is my new obsession for two reasons: the name, which is outstanding, and his career arc. His numbers with Chicago (’93 to 2000) were all-world, and then he went to New Orleans as a free agent and collapsed. He played another 13 years in the league, but never approached his Chicago numbers again.

He’s a slam dunk Huntsville/Chicago team HOFer, but not even close for the BBA Hall.

I love that he’s Vada Pinson, by the way. Ruben Sierra's not bad, either.

[Joshua Biddle]

Awesome!! Thanks!!