I should note that the draft was in June of this year, and seeing that we are now in October, that means a total of four game months have passed. A few overview notes:
1 – Five of 23 have taken some kind of developmental hit (22%)
2 – Two have taken some kind of developmental bump (8%)
3 – Only one (Las Vegas’s Rafael Flores) appears to be dramatically less valuable than prior to the draft.
4 – Most of these guys are, obviously, still pretty far down in their organizations.
So, in the end, it’s still quite early to be making any real assessments about the actual impact this huge class is going to have, but there are early signs that the development engine is wearing some of the class down.
To be honest, however, I’m almost surprised it hasn’t been a bit worse—though, again, we’re talking four months. Do some pure math and extend this to a full year and maybe we’d see that 22% erosion rate reach 66%. I don’t know. And in the end, if development erosion is only as deep as it’s been, then it’s hard to call that too worrisome (Don Smith is “only” 10/9/10? Cry me a freaking river!).
I thought it was interesting, though.
So, of course, since I thought it was interesting, you had to get a feature.
Here's the data:
