2038: Year of Long Relief

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2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 11:38 am

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Two seasons ago, Wichita’s Gonzalo Fajardo (now in the UMEBA) threw 142 innings in 59 games out if the bullpen, marking the only reliever with 140+ innings. His numbers were a pretty fair 10-6 with 5 saves and a 4.75 ERA. In 2037 Jacksonville’s Peter Grady went Fajardo one better, throwing 151.2 innings in 96 games, saving 32 games in 40 opportunities, and registering a 3.92 ERA. He was, again, the only relief pitcher to throw more than 140 innings.

Along comes 2038, though, and it’s like something new’s been put into the water supply. Assuming Steven Bobovnik sees an inning and a third this last week, a total of seven relief pitchers will tally 140 or more innings—and al of them, have thrown those innings to some reasonable effect.

Looking at these cases becomes even more interesting when we see exactly how they arrived at these innings—of which they all come in different situations and were the results of different strategies employed by their ball clubs. “Teams are trying new things,” said Baseball Source reporter Lenny Calloway. “Your firs thought is to say it’s all about the cyclone, but that’s not it because only Brooklyn’s Bobovnick is in that kind of camp. The other six are coming from really different kinds of usage patterns.”

CAN OLD-SCHOOL STOPPER WIN THE NEBRASKA?

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The most startling performance of the year is from Jacksonville, where Peter Grady (15-8, 34 saves, 2.66 (3.31 FIP, 72 FIP-) is being rolled out as a classic two and three inning stopper. He’s thrown 203 innings on the season, and finds himself suddenly in the spotlight as a dark horse candidate for the Johnson League Nebraska award . He’s a shoein for the league’s Egan award as best relief pitcher (his third in a row), so it’s possible this could be the first season ever where one guy sweeps both awards.

Regardless, the stopper role has been a controversial one in OOTP circles, but Jacksonville has been employing it with no little effect. Grady, at 27 years old, seems to have borne the physical aspect of the role well enough.

SURFERS SPECIALIZATION DOUBLES THEIR RELIEF

In Long Beach, the situation is even more intriguing, as both Diogo Lindt (162 innings to date) and Manny Gabriel (143) have crossed the 140 barrier without seeing a start. The Surfers employ a strategy geared toward extracting maximum value from the platoon advantage, in which most of their bullpen—with the exception of Lindt and Gabriel—fulfill specialist’s role. As such, both tend to pitch in lower leverage periods (Gabriel’s pLi is 1.01, Lindt’s is 1.02, where higher than 1.0 is above average), but both have been highly effective in leverage situation greater than most starters. Lindt is 6-2, with 11 saves and a 2.99 ERA, Gabriel is 5-7, with 9 saves and a 2.70 ERA.

The strategy and role itself is interesting to think about. Lindt and Gabriel became the “glue” of the pen, providing solid innings in between sandwiches of the team’s starters and its squadron of specialists.

ALFAMA BENEFITS AS FOLLOWER

The Yellow Spring Nine, however, have seen Tristan Alfama come to full fruition in a multi-varied role that included acting as a “follower” after a relief pitcher threw a single inning to open. He also benefitted from periods where the team went to 4-man rotations and short pitch counts. It all adds up to 154 innings at the time of this writing. He’s responded with a 14-3 record and a 3.90 ERA (3.85 FIP, 83 FIP-).

The role of opener is a difficult one in this pre-v20 stage. Employing a reliever early carries no benefit beyond handedness (meaning the opener throws as a starter rather than as a hard-throwing reliver). But it also gives guys like Alfama a chance to throw more innings. One notes that Alfama’s average leverage situation was .82, suggesting he was throwing in more innings as if he were a starter than a reliever, despite his 76 games coming all in relief.

SOSA GOES STANDARD?

Charm City’s Alfredo Sosa appears to have been used mostly in a more standard middle/long relief role, and has had several three and for inning stints thus season. He had a few early entries that look like opener strategies may have been employed, but most likely they were cases of injury or ineptitude. He’s 7-3 with a 4.32 ERA for the Jimmies with six games to go. At 22 years old, the future looks bright.

Sosa’s usage says he was viewed as s solid guy who could and did pitch anywhere. I’m guessing he was shuffled between roles much of the year, but wasn’t watching him that closely to see.

TWO MORE WITH TWO STARTS

In addition to the five above, there’s Bobovnik (139 IP, 91 games) and Hawaii’s Niels Steincke (149 IP, 61 games), both of whom “padded” their innings totals with two starts. They would obviously have been high-usage relievers, regardless. Steincke gathered his innings the true old-school fashion, throwing long relief for a Tropic team that needed a lot of long relief. Bobovnik threw in the vaunted Brooklyn Cyclone, whatever that is.

IS 2038 a TREND?

All total it adds up to a season in which several GMs appear to have been experimenting with multiple usage patterns. It doesn’t stop there. 13 pitchers saw more than 100 innings in 2038. This compares to 6 in 2037 and 10 in 2036.

With the v20 opener/follower feature being released soon, it’s enough to make even casual observers wonder if we’re seeing a renaissance in game theories applied across the league.

In the meantime, however, the question more fun to contemplate is whether Peter Grady can win the 2038 JL Nebraska award away from Carpenter, Rocha, and the plethora of Rockville starters.

It’ll be a tough race.

But a fun one to watch.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 12:23 pm

The Stopper role is what to me seems like an OOTP loophole in the last 2 versions. I have used it as a primary role in a couple of other leagues to great effect for a couple of seasons. I have had some injuries/poor results pop up with my Stoppers in ensuing seasons which has led me to tone it down to using the Stopper role as a primary role only during short periods of the season when the RP is pitching great. I have Dave Walsh right now that has his Secondary role set to Stopper. He has flourished in this role for Boise and has been a lifesaver to the bullpen. I wonder if this role will be "tweaked" in future OOTP versions so that we can't take advantage of the role. Most OOTP online GM's still haven't caught onto how much of game-changer the Stopper role can be if one has a dominant RP with a bit of stamina.

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 12:27 pm

Why do you consider it a loophole? It's a role that was prevalent for a long time if you had a pitcher physically capable of it, and one that many people think would still be viable if not for social pressure.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm

Look at this beast, Victor Kennedy. Look specifically at his 2044 season. He was amazing. His primary role was Stopper that entire season. He was 3rd in the league in K's. He didn't receive Middle Reliever of the year because he had 30 saves and he didn't receive Fireman of the year because he only had 30 saves...sigh...I tried explaining it to the GM's in the league and they couldn't understand his impact...they still haven't figured it out. I have toned him down to where Stopper is his secondary role as he seemed to have some residual poor performances/ratings hits because of the high usage. It was a really cool season to watch him light up the league as a RP though! :P

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm

The risk is, as you noted, pitchers in that role are more susceptible to to injury. But a great pitcher who throws for 2-3 innings a pop should be just fine, even today, seeing that he avoids the multiple times through the order thing that everyone is aware of in present day baseball.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:27 pm
Why do you consider it a loophole? It's a role that was prevalent for a long time if you had a pitcher physically capable of it, and one that many people think would still be viable if not for social pressure.
It's not really realistic when compared to RP usage in MLB is why I say that.

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 12:34 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm
Look at this beast, Victor Kennedy. Look specifically at his 2044 season. He was amazing. His primary role was Stopper that entire season. He was 3rd in the league in K's. He didn't receive Middle Reliever of the year because he had 30 saves and he didn't receive Fireman of the year because he only had 30 saves...sigh...I tried explaining it to the GM's in the league and they couldn't understand his impact...they still haven't figured it out. I have toned him down to where Stopper is his secondary role as he seemed to have some residual poor performances/ratings hits because of the high usage. It was a really cool season to watch him light up the league as a RP though! :P
Right. There's certainly a risk/reward thing associated with the usage. Just like there would be in real baseball--though who can say if it's "perfectly" implemented. I wonder if Kennedy at 25 was borderline young for the workload. Grady, at 27, may fare better. Or may not. He seems to have filled the same Stopper role last year, too. So you're rolling dice. But there's no reason in my mind to think a modern-day Goose Gossage couldn't succeed as a 2-3 inning stopper.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 12:39 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:34 pm
Bumstead wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm
Look at this beast, Victor Kennedy. Look specifically at his 2044 season. He was amazing. His primary role was Stopper that entire season. He was 3rd in the league in K's. He didn't receive Middle Reliever of the year because he had 30 saves and he didn't receive Fireman of the year because he only had 30 saves...sigh...I tried explaining it to the GM's in the league and they couldn't understand his impact...they still haven't figured it out. I have toned him down to where Stopper is his secondary role as he seemed to have some residual poor performances/ratings hits because of the high usage. It was a really cool season to watch him light up the league as a RP though! :P
Right. There's certainly a risk/reward thing associated with the usage. Just like there would be in real baseball--though who can say if it's "perfectly" implemented. I wonder if Kennedy at 25 was borderline young for the workload. Grady, at 27, may fare better. Or may not. He seems to have filled the same Stopper role last year, too. So you're rolling dice. But there's no reason in my mind to think a modern-day Goose Gossage couldn't succeed as a 2-3 inning stopper.
Well, I had traded for a bunch of RP's a few seasons ago and now they are all at the MLB level for me in that league so I don't need him to pitch that many innings now. Plus, that "extreme flyball Pitcher" thing, hurts him now and then....The Stopper role is a fun tool. I would just caution GM's on extended use of it especially in leagues that have injuries turned up.

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 12:40 pm

Bumstead wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm
RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:27 pm
Why do you consider it a loophole? It's a role that was prevalent for a long time if you had a pitcher physically capable of it, and one that many people think would still be viable if not for social pressure.
It's not really realistic when compared to RP usage in MLB is why I say that.
That's true, except for where it's not. Our environment--like every online league's--always varies from current-day MLB to some degree and in several ways. The decision on whether to use a guy as a stopper or a closer is shaped in our leagues by many of the same forces as in real baseball, though, and it's risk/reward issues are likely similar.

So I wouldn't call this area a loophole in the sense that OOTP has something fundamentally wrong.

And as this study shows, using the Stopper role isn't the only way to get your relief pitchers onto the field a lot of the time. None of those are loopholes either--though maybe I'm just reacting to the tone of the word "loophole" in this context.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 12:51 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:40 pm
Bumstead wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:30 pm
RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:27 pm
Why do you consider it a loophole? It's a role that was prevalent for a long time if you had a pitcher physically capable of it, and one that many people think would still be viable if not for social pressure.
It's not really realistic when compared to RP usage in MLB is why I say that.
That's true, except for where it's not. Our environment--like every online league's--always varies from current-day MLB to some degree and in several ways. The decision on whether to use a guy as a stopper or a closer is shaped in our leagues by many of the same forces as in real baseball, though, and it's risk/reward issues are likely similar.

So I wouldn't call this area a loophole in the sense that OOTP has something fundamentally wrong.

And as this study shows, using the Stopper role isn't the only way to get your relief pitchers onto the field a lot of the time. None of those are loopholes either--though maybe I'm just reacting to the tone of the word "loophole" in this context.
You can call it what you want. Using the term "loophole" isn't meant to be an accusation of anything. OOTP tries to create a sim that emulates MLB. In that sense, the current resulting use of the Stopper role is outside the parameters of how a similar role currently works at the MLB level. You can argue that it's not impossible, but it's not working that way at the MLB level, so...This isn't a 70's era league, so the Goose is no longer a useful comparison in my mind. I've used the role myself, so I'm not criticizing its use. Just throwing some of my own experience with it out there.

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 1:10 pm

Fair enough.

Though I'll quibble with your comment that the game is specifically attempting to emulate MLB at any particular time. I see people say that a lot, but that's not really true. What the game designers are doing is attempting to create a game environment that is flexible enough to emulate baseball of any era, as well as allow people to create totally new and different environments that are to their liking. This is actually one of the reasons that pure historical simmers often complain. They want the game to adhere strictly to MLB of whatever era they want to play in, but they have to do a lot of acrobatics to make that happen (and even then it's not quite right). This is because the game is emulating baseball, but is not specifically emulating the MLB.

But, yes, I understand your point.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by ae37jr » Fri May 24, 2019 1:16 pm

My manager has been suggesting that Bobo starts all year. One sim I caved in and he got rocked like I figured he would.

I've been marveling at Grady's usage for several seasons. He has essentially been 3 backend rp in one.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 2:00 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:10 pm
Though I'll quibble with your comment that the game is specifically attempting to emulate MLB at any particular time. I see people say that a lot, but that's not really true. What the game designers are doing is attempting to create a game environment that is flexible enough to emulate baseball of any era, as well as allow people to create totally new and different environments that are to their liking.
Quoting myself...hah!

Just to bring this out...for those of you who can remember back far enough, OOTP's advertising slogan used to be "play it your way" which pushed the idea that you could customize the environment in many ways, and that the game was not designed to be an MLB mirror.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by sjshaw » Fri May 24, 2019 2:03 pm

Quibbles about "realism" aside, I enjoy virtually nothing about OOTP bullpen logic, and excessive stopper usage is high on the list. You basically need 3 guys in a bullpen with 1-2 more for low leverage sacrificial lamb duties. If v20 allows for position players to pitch in blowouts (not sure if I'm accurate there), you won't even need them.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Lane » Fri May 24, 2019 2:08 pm

Like Ron is saying, OOTP isn't coded to manage a bullpen like as modern day MLB bullpen. It's coded to allow us to run a bullpen pretty much any way we want. It just requires more management of roles, pitch counts, strategy, and manager selection.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Bumstead » Fri May 24, 2019 2:14 pm

As comedic as the derailment is....My main point was to share my experience. The need to "quibble" over specific word use really was a distraction from what I was sharing. Carry on.

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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 2:15 pm

I think that's right...obviously...and I know that irks folks sometimes. The way I look at it is that how I should run my pen depends completely on my personnel.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by Ted » Fri May 24, 2019 4:43 pm

I feel like I saw the light with bullpens about half a decade ago. If you pay attention to who comes into games with various settings, you will easily see that the "traditional" MLB model of setup, closer, middle relief, long relief is a really inefficient way to get the most out of your 'pen. You can use the roles provided to get the better relievers in a lot more often at more useful times, simply by setting them in a way that the game's logic will put in the guy you want. It's never perfect, but it's still an upgrade over waiting for the 9th before putting in your best RP.

Note that the game WILL try to adhere to MLB roles when it can. If you have a closer, he will be used in "closer" spots. So I don't have a closer. I don't want to reserve my best reliever for what may not be a critical part of the game. There are other ways than mine though, and Jacksonville's use of Peter Grady is a prime example. Stephen's is another method.
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by udlb58 » Fri May 24, 2019 10:44 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:16 pm
My manager has been suggesting that Bobo starts all year. One sim I caved in and he got rocked like I figured he would.

I've been marveling at Grady's usage for several seasons. He has essentially been 3 backend rp in one.
I've actually had Grady as a Stopper (Closer secondary) for 3 seasons now. I don't think I've changed anything about his usage since I first switched him from Closer (Stopper secondary) to his current role sometime around the start of 2036. Even when I had him as a closer, he was always set as available in the 8th. [if OOTP is going to create 10 stamina pitchers who are incapable of starting, I am going to do my best to utilize them...I'd also like to see Harris' innings increase].

It is interesting to me how his usage in game has changed with no real change in how I instruct the game to use him. At first, I thought it was because the bullpen is worse and he's shouldering a larger load, but I don't think that's the case. I'd argue that this is my strongest bullpen over the past 3-5 years. What I think is causing his extreme usage, is my lack of innings-eating starters. In 2036, my top 4 starters combined for 870 IP, in 2037 it was 853 IP, this year they are on pace for about 830 IP. Combine that with the down-tick in innings from my typical top middle reliever, Markert (56 to 33 to 17 this year), and I think we see where his innings are coming from. My starters are coming out a batter or two earlier a game this year, and instead of turning to Markert in close games in the 6th (I have a 7th and 8th inning set-up role, so anything after should go to one of the 3 back-end guys), the game is bringing in Grady.

[side note, I do think it is hurting his overall rate stats. If you look at his FIP, K%, etc over the past 3 seasons, it looks different than the years before that]
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Re: 2038: Year of Long Relief

Post by RonCo » Fri May 24, 2019 11:15 pm

One thing I'll note is that a stopper will tend to have a high leverage index. Closers do, too, but my pure feeling is that Stoppers are even higher--which makes sense given that the role is to enter the game at any time where things are in peril, and then pitch more than a few batters. I also agree that the entire bullpen usage strategy--and any analysis of what the game is doing--needs to start with the starting rotation. When LaLoosh, Chavez, Lopez, Sanchez, and Ward we almost never needed much of a bullpen. A couple of years back we ran a 4-man rotation with guys set on 80-85 pitches most of the time by design, which used our pen a lot, and, this year, we're using the bullpen considerably more with bit the opener concept and occasionally by limiting starter's pitch counts (yes, Jose Chavez, I'm looking at you). Hence Alfama's workload had gone far up.

But, as Tyler noted, the idea of a 130-140+ IP reliever has to be predicated on his stamina rating.

I don't think this is "unrealistic" as Major league teams have tried a billions different things at a billion different times.

My point on the OOTP stuff above is that we in the BBA put reliever usage on "very often" and closers on "very often" so that is a setting we use, not a specific design goal of OOTP. Note, I'm not advocating any change here.
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