I’ve been following the top 10 picks of the past few drafts, because…well…what else would you do?
Let’s take a quick look into them and see what we can see:
2035:
- 2038-DraftRev-2035.PNG (17.83 KiB) Viewed 845 times
Purely because there’s been enough time pass to make some assessments, this is one of the more interesting classes. Of the ten players selected, we’ve seen four hit the big leagues, with Alex Ramirez leading the marquee from the top. Huntsville’s Fernando Reyes is an impact bat, especially as a LH platoon guy, and Pancho German is likely a solid middle-rotation guy, maybe better. Jefferson Riles just now made the majors, and has the ratings to make an impact.
Three more players, Reynaldo Avila, Jorge Garcia, and Jerry Pacy, are still prospects, though each are tarnished a bit and may struggle to make impacts. The sands of time are still running for them.
Brooklyn drafted Raul Guzman, then did not sign him. The following season they drafted CF Dan Floures, who the eventually traded, and who is now on the Mexico City major league roster, though he’s taken a bit or rating erosion, too.
Of these ten players, the only two that seem fairly quantifiable busts at present are Hawaii’s SP Juan Ramirez, and Edmonton’s 1B Takeichi Ohayashi, though Ohayashi could be argued to still have a shot at sniffing a BBA roster.
Overall, the top 10 of 2035 has yielded four players in the past three seasons (five if you count Flores). With time left to yield more, this seems pretty good. On the other hand, of the ten, eight saw at least some ratings erosion, and all are still relatively young, so we could see more.
2036:
- 2038-DraftRev-2036.PNG (17.64 KiB) Viewed 845 times
Dennis French, o’lord, Dennis French. Any class that includes French is going to look good. And on initial glance, this class looks brilliant. In two seasons, it’s already yielded four BBA level players (five if you account the aforementioned Dan Floures here or in 2035). In addition, it’s seen only one “borderline bust” in San Antonio’s SP Fernando Moran. However, things are not always as glorious as it seems.
Two of the promotions (White and Ata) were likely made well before the player’s ratings suggested it was particularly wise. White’s was done with the caveat that he wanted and got a major league deal, Ata under a position of need and the idea that maybe he might hit, pitch, and (assuming here) put butts in the seats. Mike Campbell’s promotion was at the right time as far as development goes, but came with a full stage reduction in those potentials. He’s still solid, though.
Two players (Wichita’s Zak Johnson, and Huntsville’s David Simpson) did not sign, Wichita subsequently drafted SP Armando Feliciano in 2037, Huntsville got SP Timo Dooley, both of whom are still solid prospects.
It is potentially worth noting that seven of the eight players who signed have seen potential degradation. Combine this information with that of the 2035 draft class, and it does appear that some 80-90% of top ten picks can be expected to see at a least a little of the shine fade from their draft day ratings.
Overall, this class could still go both ways. It’s looking sexy, but I’d say we’ll need another year before drawing any solid conclusions.
2037:
- 2038-DraftRev-2037.PNG (18.27 KiB) Viewed 845 times
As can be expected, we haven’t seen a lot of last year’s class, with only Hawaii’s Zak Johnson being deployed into the BBA level. Again, rational people can argue whether that was wise or not—Johnson may well have been the Tropic’s best answer for today, but how much value he gave the team in 2038 vs. the value he might have created by staying in the minors one more season would be an interesting topic for a Sports Management grad student’s dissertation. Bottom line: by ratings, Johnson wasn’t’ really ready, and you see it in his numbers. That his ratings have fallen is either interesting in the context of this discussion, or not.
Bottom line, other than Johnson, we’ve not seen a BBA level player out of the gang, and five of the ten (or six of twelve if you’re counting picks made in compensation for not signing earlier players) have seen ratings erosion. Of those, two (Valencia’s Alberto Chavez, and Wichita’s John Antill) have clearly seen their stars fall completely from the sky.
2038:
- 2038-DraftRev-2038.PNG (13.7 KiB) Viewed 845 times
The most interesting thing about the 2038 class, other than it’s brilliance, is that we’re sitting in late August—two months past the draft itself—and unless I’m missing something we’ve yet to see out first talent drop.
Three of these guys are up in AA. One in A ball, the rest still in their Rookie levels, suggesting GMS are being a bit more cautious with this collection…or maybe there are other things at play?
Obviously, we’ll not be making any assessments on this gang at this point, but it’s here for posterity’s sake.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT?
I think a few things look to be emerging. First the raw “bust rate” of top 10 picks looks to be about 15%-20%. The early yield rate may be about 50% in the first 2-3 seasons…relatively fast. We’ll wait and see when it comes to discussing superstars, but there are clearly candidates.
