When we think about base running, we think stolen bases. We think Mons Raider popping up into second and then third before the first throw even gets past the mound. We imagine reading pitchers as they start to the plate, getting the perfect jump. Or we think of the machine-gunned arm of a catcher behind the plate. When we’re in a particularly relaxed state of enjoyment, we might push our thoughts out to consider the well-cut scramble around second as a runner goes from first to third on a liner into the outfield.
Yes, baserunning, where blinding speed matches with elegant artistry of sport.
What we don’t think of a whole lot is the pick-off play. And yet, here it is, a particularly embarrassing way for a guy to return to the dugout, and the simplest way for a pitcher to pad the old ERA. One out recorded on no official pitches is a pretty good return on investment, eh?
We don’t think of it in part because the impact can be pretty small across the whole, and in part because the data is hard to get. Until now, anyway. Among the items that my game log script yields is the occurrence of a pick-off play. I admit I have no idea how often they _should_ happen, but by taking the script’s results file and using something I call “advanced arithmetic,” we can now see exactly what the this hidden, yet silently interesting aspect of the baserunning game is bringing to our ballclubs.
I’ll call this intricate stat “Baserunners Retained,” or BR for short, though maybe I should call it “wBR” because any new stat with a “w” in front of it looks a lot cooler. Yes, that’s the deal. I’ll call it wBR+, even, adjusting for ballpark. This works because we’ll just do the basic weighting as “1” across the board, and since all parks have the same distance between the mound and the bases, the “+” part is also factored as 1. Brilliant. I feel better already.
Anyway, with this approach, we can now know that Edmonton’s pitchers have picked 6 runners off base while their own players have only been so picked twice, yielding the advanced result that the Jack Rabbits are 4 wBR+ to the positive, which leads the league. Likewise, we can impress our friends at the bar tonight by slyly noting the Des Moines is on the down-side of this one, the Kernel pitchers having erased four baserunners, while their lads have been picked off eight times, making the Des Moines wBR+ an unappetizing -4.
See how much fun this is?
Can you imaging how cool your girlfriends and wives will be when you ship this new stat out for them? See, honey, I’ll say to my wife tonight at dinner, I’m going to be too busy to go to a movie tonight because I’ve got to find a few pitchers who can bump up my wBR+.
I’m pretty sure she’ll understand.
Please…tell me she’ll understand.
Anyway, here's the data:
Code: Select all
Pitch Run wBR+
EDM 6 2 4
LOU 4 1 3
TWC 4 1 3
WIC 5 2 3
ATC 5 3 2
HAW 5 3 2
SFB 7 5 2
BRK 4 3 1
LV 2 1 1
MNT 4 3 1
RCK 1 1
VAL 2 1 1
CAL 5 5 0
MEX 2 2 0
NO 4 4 0
OMA 2 2 0
PHX 4 4 0
BOI 6 7 -1
CLG 4 5 -1
HNT 1 2 -1
NSV 4 5 -1
SEA 3 4 -1
VAN 3 4 -1
CCJ 1 3 -2
JAX 3 5 -2
MAD 2 4 -2
SA 2 4 -2
LBC 2 5 -3
YS9 3 6 -3
DM 4 8 -4
104 104 0
The answer is, of course, I have no idea. I just thought it was interesting.
And, of course, as an OOTP GM who is always looking to get even a tiny edge, the information makes me wonder. Who gets picked off, who does the picking? Does a pitcher's Hold Rating do more than simply retard a runner's ability to sprint toward second at full bluster? Or flipping the coin, does a runner's Steal skill control this aspect of the game at all? How about his Intelligence? Or simply "Baserunning?" Again, I have no idea. But, yeah, I thought it was fun, and of course, I immediately fell in love with wBR+.
