I suppose that in this case, one should make the anti-argument first. I mean, when I say the Stars will win the division, aren’t I also saying that the California Crusaders won’t? Or that pre-season darling Long Beach isn’t going to get the job done? Or, holy freakin’ crap, that the San Fernando Bears’ rough start is real and that they, too, the defending Frick League champion, will fail to take the Pacific Ring? And, of course, there’s the upstart group of Tropics that’s been making the division interesting. By saying the Stars will win the Pacific, aren’t I saying that Hawaii’s hot start is nothing but pineapple and Luas?
And, if so, how can I say all that?
Hawaii will fade because they have to.
Give this team a year or two, though, and let's see Zak Johnson become what he's supposed to become and maybe things will be different. Time moves forward, after all. And the future sometimes comes more rapidly than we think it will.
So to me, Long Beach will win a lot of games, but they will not win the Pacific division title because they are showing signs of age creeping into the marrow of their bones.
Lets face it, though, he Bear’s offensive regression is a bit over-stated mostly because we’re so used to lumber-loaded onslaughts from this team. The San Fernando offense is still upper-third in the Frick. Kid third-sacker Juan Mendoza (.386/.452/.614) has been brilliant. Luis Maldonado is still a big deal in right field. At 33, Jared Gillstrom is still a solid enough player, though he’s maybe taking a gentle step backward. And last year’s big acquisition of William Moreland is, like the rest, still being productive, just not quite where he was in 2037. So, yeah, the Bears are hitting—just not where they hit in 2037. And that’s the thing. I suggest that this is about as good as it’s going to get. Maybe we’ll see 27-year-old 1B Tai hoi Wie hit an accelerator, but even if he does, there’s not a whole lot more top-end to wring out of him.
The issue here, though, is a pitching staff that may finally be coming home to roost. Ace Feliciano Rafael is still prime rib, but that’s about it now. Ernie Kinney is 27 and injury prone, Alfredo Perales is a walking back cramp, and Sergei Hopkins, as good as he should become, was up two years too early in 2037, which means he’s still a year away from being really ready…and it’s all showing in the numbers.
In other words, if you think the San Fernando Bears are going to win the division, you have to think the club is going to get starting pitching from someone other than Rafael, and I don’t think that’s going to happen.
But, you say, what about the beastly California Crusaders?
I don’t know who it’s going to be, but someone’s going to get hurt. And then they’re going to need some offense.
And the bottom line here is that the California offense doesn’t score a lot of runs. Don’t get me wrong. The Crusaders have some professional hitter on their roster, starting with young stud Raul Hernandez and his 19 homers at first base. Nico Eijpe is a solid lefthanded batter at third base, and Esteban Cuervo is a real contributor in left field. Veteran Claudio Defazio can still get on base. But the team stands 8th in the Frick when it comes to runs scored right now, with seven teams better and seven teams worse.
Perhaps we’ll see a tick up, but most likely not a big one.
There’s something else here, too. Something I’ll get to in a bit.
I mean, holy cows, this is finally an exciting team to watch play ball.
At 22, shortstop Angel Zalapa (18 HR, .309/.382/.623) is now a true star in every way. A year older, 3B Curt Love (12 HR, .329/.413/.651) is a tick behind. At 26, outfielder Frank Mahaffey is an old-timer with 14 homers and a .37p OBP. He’s flanked by two more kids with bonafide star quality in 24-year-old RF Wilton Rivera and 21-year-old CF Ramon Pagan.
Oh, did we mention that the team added solid contact guy 1B Mike Ellis in Free Agency, and that catcher Jose Moleno, while not elite, is one of the upper third of offensive catchers.
There’s a reason this team leads pretty much every offensive category in the Frick league: first in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, extra-base hits, home runs, and runs scored. The club is second in overall hits, partially because, despite the slugging rate, they rarely strike out (5th lowest K total in the league).
Yes, you can turn the lenses on the pitching and say its not very good. But there are bright spots here that make us squint past the ugliness. First and foremost is closer Luis Ortega, who is the closest thing to a lock-down you can get. If the Stars bats have staked the team to a lead late in the game, Ortega isn’t going to lose it. The rest of the pen has been a bit “meh,” but to my eyes has been under-performing, suggesting they should (key word, should) bounce back.
Same for the starters, really. The big argument against the Stars is that there’s no Mauro Flores kind of ace here. But Lee McHone is a professional pitcher, and scouts say both Zhi-xin Chien and Luis Salinas have room to grow. Niall Hanlon has three quality starts in his last four outings, and if that keeps up, it’s all the Stars probably need. Add in that swing man Jose Martinez has been throwing decent baseball, and that at age 24 he’s got room to grow, too…well.
Maybe it’s asking too much, but at the end of the day the Stars pitching looks like it will get better, and with those bats hanging around, they don’t need to get too much better to make a big difference.
And there’s this, too. Taking a look at that fancy StasPlus thing, we see this (the “one other thing” I mentioned in the California bit).
Of the real contenders in the Pacific, the Stars’ schedule remaining by base runs is .495.. California, for example, will face a schedule expected to finish out at a .503 clip. Long Beach is at .504. San Fernando can be hopeful at .492 (the weakest of all), but they’ve got four and a half games to make up on the Stars. To close out here, Hawaii’s projected schedule rings in at a doable .494.
So, yeah, there’s my case. The Valencia Stars will win the Pacific division because they’ve got the most scintillating young offense in the division, and because the pitching will improve in the last four months—not a ton, of course, but just enough to take the Pacific crown.
