2037: Walk This Way, Or The Walk of Shame?

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RonCo
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2037: Walk This Way, Or The Walk of Shame?

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:38 am

Of course, I have to finish this one out by looking at walks in the same way as the rest. These are the three true outcomes, after all. I suppose there are some other things we could add: Stolen bases for and against. Hit by pitch. Intentional walks. Passed Balls…but, meh. Maybe I’ll do those just for fun sometime, but I think most of us would agree those are pretty small potatoes when it comes to the big picture of how you build teams. I mean, yes, Angel De Castillo was a little more effective because he got on base through the HBP…so what?

Anyway, I took some time and built the same BB/BBA chart as the rest of this series. Here it is:

2037-BB-BBA.PNG
2037-BB-BBA.PNG (15.82 KiB) Viewed 1003 times

First thing I was surprised by was that its base scatter looks bigger/wider than that of the strike out chart. Just due to the raw count of walks vs. homers, vs strike outs available, I’d expected the HR chart to be the most concentrated (which it is), the K chart to be the most scattered, and the BB chart to fall between the two. But BB vs. BBA looks to me to be the most broadly distributed—does this mean more teams have divergent approaches to plate discipline across their coaching staffs? Or is it a matter of GMs actually selecting players like this? Or is it just random happenstance? Who knows, right? I mean, this is just one season of data, influenced by a lot of factors.

Still, I’m weird enough to find that interesting.

LOOKING AT THE TOP

In terms of “dominance” of a category, there’s interesting things to be seen here, too. We see super teams Jacksonville and California leading the pack here, but no mention of Rockville or San Fernando in the upper tier. I generally think of CAL, SFB, JAX, and RCK as our super teams these days (with maybe Edmonton edging up into those ranks somehow), which led me to take a look at the three true outcome domination charts and come up with this view on how they’ve come about that position. In other words, where do these teams dwarf the competition in accruing TTO results. The tally looks like this:

CAL (Power, Control)
Jacksonville (Power, Control)
San Fernando (Power)
Rockville (Strikeouts)

Ted’s Crusaders absolutely dominate in two categories, but in the other (Strikeouts) they are a net -127. Tyler’s Hurricanes have a similar performance, but are only 14 strikeouts in the hole overall. Aaron’s Rockville club is blisteringly strong in the K-game, and 24 homers up in the power category, but they are in a 43 walk hole when it comes to free passes. All good, yes. But let’s look at San Fernando, who is the only super team to be net-positive across all three, hitting the world domination chart in homers, but also walking 78 more times than they walk, and striking out 88 less times than their opponents. Want a hint why Randy’s probably going to be able to write a whizz-bang article about where this performance sits in the history of the league? My guess is that is starts right there.

Of course, I want to note one more thing: Edmonton.

You can’t count the Jackrabbits as a super-team yet. It's only been one season for them, after all. But they don’t hit the domination charts anywhere but “wins,” which is interesting. So I looked closer, and saw this:

HR: 209 for, 159 against = +50
BB: 493 for, 420 against = +73
K: 1134 for, 1094 against = +40

In other words, the Edmonton Jackrabbits weren’t strong enough in any one category to be call dominant, but they were very strongly above the even mark everywhere, and the mix raised them up into that conversation of “great” teams. At question, of course, is whether this is a long-term situation or not. Time will tell.

OTHER INTERESTING ITEMS ON THE BB CHART

Of course, we’re not really done here. Take a look at CCJ—whose only real skill shows up here. And Vegas, too makes a mark in plate discipline. Of particular note is Omaha, who has been discussed as a “lucky” team by base runs/pyth numbers. We can see it here, too, as the Hawks struggled to take a walk, leading to a fairly major hill for their pitching to overcome.

You can take a look at the rest at your convenience. Here’s the full list:

Team BB-Bat BB-Pit
Charm City Jimmies 668 546
Wichita Aviators 651 536
Jacksonville Hurricanes 641 405
Madison Wolves 636 532
Las Vegas Hustlers 619 465
San Fernando Bears 605 527
Atlantic City Gamblers 565 621
Phoenix Talons 563 505
Long Beach Surfers 542 554
Boise Spuds 538 526
California Crusaders 533 378
Twin Cities River Monsters 527 455
Brooklyn Robins 521 540
Huntsville Phantoms 518 580
Seattle Storm 509 429
Yellow Springs Nine 493 587
Edmonton Jackrabbits 493 420
Montreal Blazers 481 513
Des Moines Kernels 472 520
Valencia Stars 456 524
Vancouver Mounties 453 427
Nashville Goats 451 600
Mexico City Aztecs 446 495
New Orleans Crawdads 432 441
Rockville Pikemen 431 474
Hawaii Tropics 430 476
San Antonio Outlaws 426 605
Louisville Sluggers 387 522
Omaha Hawks 350 514
Calgary Pioneers 343 463
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Re: 2037: Walk This Way, Or The Walk of Shame?

Post by crobillard » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:16 pm

It’s so strange hearing Edmonton being discussed in the same realm as these dominant teams. I think this team is definitely not dominant. The closest to dominance they get on the stats sheet is with their pitching. The Jackrabbits haven’t allowed a lot of homeruns and that’s been a huge part of why this team has been successful. Dominant though is tough for me to get past. I would call San Fernando, Rockville and California certainly dominant. These are teams that have established an identity over the past several seasons and have showed excellent consistency in winning. You’re totally right that Edmonton might become dominant but we’ll have to wait and see. Exciting stuff!

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Re: 2037: Walk This Way, Or The Walk of Shame?

Post by Ted » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:46 pm

These have been fun, Ron. Thanks. As far as he strikeouts go, I was a bit surprised to see I was negative, but not after I thought about it. In a cap league, it's tough to be good at everything. So I've long punted contact hitting, which means my AVK's are junk. This is largely why my offense is so inconsistent and sputters at times. I may try to move back towards a bit more balance going forward, and let the back part of the rotation wilt a bit. We'll see. One thing that won't change is this BB ratio. I can't stand giving out more free passes than I get. Also, I got pushed this way by the old California park effect. Bases on balls aren't affected by park factors much.
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