Phoenix Talons 2001 Preview
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:14 pm
Links and formatting are coming, but I wanted to get this out there before the first sim.
Overview:
Few teams have been more actively working to improve their squad than the Phoenix Talons. With a payroll that's now in excess of $70 million and the second most expensive player in the game, Sammy Bodeen, the team is looking to make some waves this year.
Phoenix acquired a host of talent this offseason; while there's little chance that they're aiming to make up the 30-game difference between themselves and the Madison Wolves, there's no reason they can't make up the 16-game difference between themselves and California, as long as their moves have made them a better squad. Let's take a closer look at the Talons and see what we've got there.
Review of last year:
Phoenix had their best season in quite some time last year. Behind their pitching staff, Phoenix won their highest number of games since the 1996 season, and their 77 wins were the team's second most ever. With few important departures and a lot of key arrivals, as well as being on the hook for Bodeen's contract, one could easily see why they've chosen to try to move forward.
Key Additions: Mack Randall (trade), Sammy Bodeen (trade last year), Guam Fantomhorsfli (trade), Nathan Molnar (Rule 5), Werner McConnell (expanded role), Steve Rossi (free agent)
Key Departures: Jimmy Waite (trade), Segundo Prado (trade), Eddie Guerrero (free agent), Kosuke Fukudome (trade)
Transaction Analysis:
Phoenix managed to add two productive offensive players in Mack Randall and Guam Fantomhorsfli, Rule 5 pick Nathan Molnar and Sammy Bodeen while surrendering only a good catcher that wouldn’t start (Waite), and a couple of decent-looking relievers. We’d call that a major win for Phoenix, as long as they’re able to pay for all of them – and they are. The Nathan Molnar draft pick was a heist, especially from rebuilding Long Beach. We like Steve Rossi for his bat.
Positional Analysis:
Overview:
Phoenix won their games on their pitching last year; the offense was, in a word, terrible. The Talons were one of only two teams in the MBBA to score less than four runs per game.
The offseason, however, brought a horde of new faces to the offense. This is a much more talented group than last year, and they'll have to be much better if they're going to make the leap they're trying to make. Full years of Werner McConnell, Mack Randall and Guam will help, and if they can get back to near league average, they might have a shot at that wild card spot.
Catcher:
Elwood Hope jumped a surprising light year forward last year; he was good that they were able to deal Jimmy Waite. It’s entirely possible he’ll fall back this season somewhat. He should still be very productive for a catcher, especially on his rookie deal.
First Base:
First base shouldn’t be a battle this year, despite solid hitting depth at the position. Santiago Berrios currently has the position outright; however, both Kaneyasu Akahito and Steve Rossi will provide some coverage there. If it were us, we’d start Rossi.
Second Base:
No mystery here: Mack Randall will man the pivot for Phoenix. Randall’s one of the more reliable offensive weapons in the game, as solid a second sacker as they come. He’s expected to hit 25-30 homers and probably .280 as well.
Shortstop:
John Wilkinson, just 23, hit .286 last year in his rookie campaign. His defensive instincts are poor, but he has good range, a rocket arm and a low error rate. Cody Chamberland might see some time there this year, though he’s a far worse defender. Ben Calfo’s no longer a starter.
Third Base:
Cody Chamberland is a consistently below average starter, though his defense should be more than adequate at the hot corner. There’s no depth at the position, and he’s a pretty good prospect overall, so it’s his spot to lose.
Outfield:
Guam may be the headliner, but Werner McConnell, the MBBA’s #1 prospect, is the potential star. Reasonable projections for McConnell suggest that he’s a 3-4-5 player; that is, a guy who hits .300, gets on base at a .400 clip, and slugs over .500 – and while not technically a rookie, he’s only 23 years old. Day-um. Guam is a consistently above-average outfielder without being special. Aaron Staff is a star defensive player without much significant offensive ability.
Pitching:
Despite finishing fifth in the league in runs allowed in a 12-team league, the Talons had a team ERA a full quarter run below the JL average. That qualifies you for a “good” year of pitching. There’s been a lot of upheaval and a lot of issues, however, so it’ll be a bit of a different story in Phoenix.
Rotation:
We’re more than a little perturbed by the precipitous drop of Emile Yost. If they’re going to have a lefty in the pen, it should probably be Yost, whose fall in velocity and command barely make him worth the roster spot. The fact is, Yost is a disaster waiting to happen, a far cry from the solid but unspectacular starter he’s been for several years.
Also, you don’t often see teams replace a 14-game winner in a rotation with a rookie, but that’s exactly what’s happening in Phoenix, as Nathan Molnar replaces Mike Rebhan. For our money, we’d rather have Rebhan in the rotation, though we can understand the usefulness of a second solid lefty in the bullpen (Yost doesn’t qualify as a solid anything).
Finally, Bodeen may be earning a bunch, but he's far from the sure thing he was when he was signed. Is he due for more decline? Is his current state any better than a #3 starter?
This might just be a spring training bunch; we think their best rotation is probably Tetreault, Bodeen, Klopp, Rebhan and Nebraska or Molnar, and we might see more of that in the regular season.
Bullpen:
Depends on the alignment, but there’s reason to be somewhat pessimistic about this pen. Other than Hans Velkommen and Nebraska, there’s not a lot of star power among this group, and Jeremy Crume is the only other pen member who might be above average.
Competition:
Obviously, they’re not in desperate danger from the pitchingless Omaha Barnstormers or the totally adrift Chicago Black Sox for second place this season. Similarly, we don’t think the team has any delusions of grandeur in passing the 105 win Madison Wolves. So, the question is, can they catch either Vancouver or California for the wild card?
Well, Cal looks like they haven’t missed a step. Vancouver appears to be better than they are, too. That makes sense, considering both teams finished fifteen games ahead of Phoenix for the wild card.
Final Analysis:
Then again, maybe playoffs shouldn’t be what the Phoenix Talons pursue this season. In six league seasons, Phoenix has never finished with even as high as a .500 record, and they were as close as they’ve been in years last season.
With an improved offense, a decent rotation, a decent bullpen and not a lot of holes, Phoenix could jump up and surprise with 90 wins if they get some Herculean efforts from their young guys and some surprise performances on the pitching staff. More likely, Phoenix is destined for about a .500 record – but we think they’d settle for the good side of that .500 mark this season.
With the second-best MBBA farm system, including being the only team with five prospects in the top 30 Baseball America list, the Talons may have a very bright future ahead of them.
Overview:
Few teams have been more actively working to improve their squad than the Phoenix Talons. With a payroll that's now in excess of $70 million and the second most expensive player in the game, Sammy Bodeen, the team is looking to make some waves this year.
Phoenix acquired a host of talent this offseason; while there's little chance that they're aiming to make up the 30-game difference between themselves and the Madison Wolves, there's no reason they can't make up the 16-game difference between themselves and California, as long as their moves have made them a better squad. Let's take a closer look at the Talons and see what we've got there.
Review of last year:
Phoenix had their best season in quite some time last year. Behind their pitching staff, Phoenix won their highest number of games since the 1996 season, and their 77 wins were the team's second most ever. With few important departures and a lot of key arrivals, as well as being on the hook for Bodeen's contract, one could easily see why they've chosen to try to move forward.
Key Additions: Mack Randall (trade), Sammy Bodeen (trade last year), Guam Fantomhorsfli (trade), Nathan Molnar (Rule 5), Werner McConnell (expanded role), Steve Rossi (free agent)
Key Departures: Jimmy Waite (trade), Segundo Prado (trade), Eddie Guerrero (free agent), Kosuke Fukudome (trade)
Transaction Analysis:
Phoenix managed to add two productive offensive players in Mack Randall and Guam Fantomhorsfli, Rule 5 pick Nathan Molnar and Sammy Bodeen while surrendering only a good catcher that wouldn’t start (Waite), and a couple of decent-looking relievers. We’d call that a major win for Phoenix, as long as they’re able to pay for all of them – and they are. The Nathan Molnar draft pick was a heist, especially from rebuilding Long Beach. We like Steve Rossi for his bat.
Positional Analysis:
Overview:
Phoenix won their games on their pitching last year; the offense was, in a word, terrible. The Talons were one of only two teams in the MBBA to score less than four runs per game.
The offseason, however, brought a horde of new faces to the offense. This is a much more talented group than last year, and they'll have to be much better if they're going to make the leap they're trying to make. Full years of Werner McConnell, Mack Randall and Guam will help, and if they can get back to near league average, they might have a shot at that wild card spot.
Catcher:
Elwood Hope jumped a surprising light year forward last year; he was good that they were able to deal Jimmy Waite. It’s entirely possible he’ll fall back this season somewhat. He should still be very productive for a catcher, especially on his rookie deal.
First Base:
First base shouldn’t be a battle this year, despite solid hitting depth at the position. Santiago Berrios currently has the position outright; however, both Kaneyasu Akahito and Steve Rossi will provide some coverage there. If it were us, we’d start Rossi.
Second Base:
No mystery here: Mack Randall will man the pivot for Phoenix. Randall’s one of the more reliable offensive weapons in the game, as solid a second sacker as they come. He’s expected to hit 25-30 homers and probably .280 as well.
Shortstop:
John Wilkinson, just 23, hit .286 last year in his rookie campaign. His defensive instincts are poor, but he has good range, a rocket arm and a low error rate. Cody Chamberland might see some time there this year, though he’s a far worse defender. Ben Calfo’s no longer a starter.
Third Base:
Cody Chamberland is a consistently below average starter, though his defense should be more than adequate at the hot corner. There’s no depth at the position, and he’s a pretty good prospect overall, so it’s his spot to lose.
Outfield:
Guam may be the headliner, but Werner McConnell, the MBBA’s #1 prospect, is the potential star. Reasonable projections for McConnell suggest that he’s a 3-4-5 player; that is, a guy who hits .300, gets on base at a .400 clip, and slugs over .500 – and while not technically a rookie, he’s only 23 years old. Day-um. Guam is a consistently above-average outfielder without being special. Aaron Staff is a star defensive player without much significant offensive ability.
Pitching:
Despite finishing fifth in the league in runs allowed in a 12-team league, the Talons had a team ERA a full quarter run below the JL average. That qualifies you for a “good” year of pitching. There’s been a lot of upheaval and a lot of issues, however, so it’ll be a bit of a different story in Phoenix.
Rotation:
We’re more than a little perturbed by the precipitous drop of Emile Yost. If they’re going to have a lefty in the pen, it should probably be Yost, whose fall in velocity and command barely make him worth the roster spot. The fact is, Yost is a disaster waiting to happen, a far cry from the solid but unspectacular starter he’s been for several years.
Also, you don’t often see teams replace a 14-game winner in a rotation with a rookie, but that’s exactly what’s happening in Phoenix, as Nathan Molnar replaces Mike Rebhan. For our money, we’d rather have Rebhan in the rotation, though we can understand the usefulness of a second solid lefty in the bullpen (Yost doesn’t qualify as a solid anything).
Finally, Bodeen may be earning a bunch, but he's far from the sure thing he was when he was signed. Is he due for more decline? Is his current state any better than a #3 starter?
This might just be a spring training bunch; we think their best rotation is probably Tetreault, Bodeen, Klopp, Rebhan and Nebraska or Molnar, and we might see more of that in the regular season.
Bullpen:
Depends on the alignment, but there’s reason to be somewhat pessimistic about this pen. Other than Hans Velkommen and Nebraska, there’s not a lot of star power among this group, and Jeremy Crume is the only other pen member who might be above average.
Competition:
Obviously, they’re not in desperate danger from the pitchingless Omaha Barnstormers or the totally adrift Chicago Black Sox for second place this season. Similarly, we don’t think the team has any delusions of grandeur in passing the 105 win Madison Wolves. So, the question is, can they catch either Vancouver or California for the wild card?
Well, Cal looks like they haven’t missed a step. Vancouver appears to be better than they are, too. That makes sense, considering both teams finished fifteen games ahead of Phoenix for the wild card.
Final Analysis:
Then again, maybe playoffs shouldn’t be what the Phoenix Talons pursue this season. In six league seasons, Phoenix has never finished with even as high as a .500 record, and they were as close as they’ve been in years last season.
With an improved offense, a decent rotation, a decent bullpen and not a lot of holes, Phoenix could jump up and surprise with 90 wins if they get some Herculean efforts from their young guys and some surprise performances on the pitching staff. More likely, Phoenix is destined for about a .500 record – but we think they’d settle for the good side of that .500 mark this season.
With the second-best MBBA farm system, including being the only team with five prospects in the top 30 Baseball America list, the Talons may have a very bright future ahead of them.