Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

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Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by Lane » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:32 am

Of all the things I enjoy about StatsPlus, my favorite is BaseRuns. So, uh why am I reading a feature about playoff odds, you ask yourself?

Because as much as I love BaseRuns, it's still more of a stat that tells us about what happened than what's going to happen.

Enter Playoffs Odds. Now, I think OOTP had (has?) playoff odds all season, but they looked rather suspect to me. Not sure how much better StatsPlus is, but a) it looks better, and b) it's far easier to download. Don't you just love that little 'CSV' button down below these tables? I digress.

Anyway my point is, it's so much more fun to gaze into the crystal ball (as the AFBI guys put it) than look back.

I think this is a fun way of looking at Playoff odds and I hope you feel the same way. Below, in six charts (one for each division), are playoff odds sim by sim. Going from Sim 1 on the left to Sim 13 on the right.

It's important to note that the first data point here is after Sim 1, and is not a preseason prediction. I'm not sure how exactly to do the math on playoff odds based on the preseason predictions, though I'm sure it could be done.

Enjoy! Feedback is welcome, as I will repeat at the end of the year, and do one for division odds as well.
JLA.jpg
JLS.jpg
JLSB.jpg
FLH.jpg
FLP.jpg
FLF.jpg
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by RonCo » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:37 am

Not dead, yet!
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by Ted » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:32 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:37 am
Not dead, yet!
No you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by GoldenOne » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:30 am

The Goats were trending the right way for a while but these last two sims have been a kick in the nuts. Ya gotta beat the teams you are supposed to beat, boys!!
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by Spiccoli » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:09 am

I predict the Heartland will flip a few more times before it's all over. No clear cut run away like in other divisions.
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by recte44 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:02 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:37 am
Not dead, yet!

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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by 7teen » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:16 am

So just based on the now, it predicts California, Long Beach, and Madison to have the best odds at making the post-season.

I'm still not a believer in my own team. LB and California, sure. If I were a betting man I'd put money on Omaha and Seattle ahead of Madison in the FL at this point.
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Re: Playoff Odds Through Midseason 2037

Post by Lane » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:34 am

And here's what the Wild Card races look like. 2nd and 3rd place teams for each league.
JL WC.jpg
FL WC.jpg
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