With BBA buzz building over the 2036 free agent class, fans and pundits are turning their eyes to the question of who might be playing in the market. A glance at the current payroll structures across the league show 13 teams with established payrolls of over $92M, which suggests that without trades or other adjustments, they are likely not major players for the bigger fish. Beyond that, when we further restrict the game by each team’s available budgets, the noose gets a little tighter (Vancouver, for example, has $30M of cap space to spend but only $9M in budget space. Edmonton is in worse space, with $50M in cap space, but just under $20M in budget—proof that you’ve got to get your finances in order to make a run stick, right?).
While across the league, there exists something over $688M in available cash to spend, those teams with less that $20M available to them are unlikely to play in Reindeer games for the mega-stars.
In addition, a few low payroll teams are less likely to be in positions to want to take on $20-$25M contracts at this point. These are teams like Boise, San Antonio, Charm City, and Wichita. To these we might include Madison, who may well be attempting to compete, but who needs more than 1 or 1.5 big fish, and who at $80M committed may need to go other ways. One or more of these teams could certainly step up and play in the game, and we suspect a few will consider it. San Antonio in particular, with over $70M to spend, has got to be chomping at the bit. They appear to be close to the bottom of their rebuild, and a superstar might go a way to helping them now. It will be interesting to see which of these teams decide to take the plunge now and see what comes of it.
Assuming none do, however, we’re left with nine teams who are competing now, and who have committed payrolls between $39M and $82M, meaning they have money to spend up to their caps.
Not surprising, Yellow Springs leads the group with $51M available (amazing what happens when your best veterans all go Free Agent at the same time). Of course, the Nine also need to replace the most of any other team in the process. At $42M available, Valencia is next. Then we see Long Beach, Hawaii, Mexico City, and Nashville, each with $30-$40M to spend. Des Moines, Omaha, and Seattle sit at between $20-$29M available.
Unless other oddities happen, it’s probably safe to predict these nine teams will be the most aggressive in the market.
WILD CARDS?
Of course, all this is predicated on only the structure available in year one of any deal.
Some teams may augment these numbers with cash, which might make for interesting 1-season deals. Others might succeed in finagling salary in out-seasons, inclusion of options and opt-outs, and the use of bonus cash (which is outside the constraints of the salary cap).
In addition, a team like Jacksonville or Phoenix might decide to step into the ring in a surgical fashion. Or Edmonton, who has financial issues noted above, but who could use a couple players, might find some magic strings to pull to get into the game.
It’s going to be a high-stakes process, that’s for sure.
Call it the Shoot-out at the BBA Corral?
