My ears perked up while listening to the guys talk about Fernando Moreno on one of the latest 2036 overview podcasts. Ted focused on the idea that Fernando Moreno is clearly a “clutch” player in the post season. This is, of course, always an interesting conversation—first, whether the skill exists in real life, and second whether it exists in OOTP (and if so, what is it?)
For fun, I’ve been playing some acrobatics with Moreno’s numbers.
I should note here that I’m not attempting to prove anything, nor am I saying Ted is either right or wrong. In fact (to steal my own thunder a bit), while you’re encouraged to think about the information I’ll present however you want, it doesn’t tell me the answer in any firm form at all. Some says that Ted’s suggestion could be right, but other bit throw doubt. So, instead, please take this as me playing with numbers in fun and interesting ways.
So, let’s start, shall we?
THE PROCESS:
Here are steps I took:
- I put Moreno’s regular season numbers next to his post-season numbers.
- I compared where his AVG/OBP/OPS numbers were better or worse in the post season
- I also tallied up his totals in Huntsville and California
Here’s the spreadsheet:
Year-By-Year Comparison
Moreno went to the post season eight years with Huntsville. If we look at his first four seasons, his slash was better in three, and worse in one. This might suggest that Moreno is clutch, though I note that the random nature of coin flips says that if his skill is no different in the post season as in the regular season, the chances of this 3:1 split happening is something like 49% (the chances you’ll get exactly three better and three worse is about 37%).
The next few seasons in Huntsville, we see Moreno split his performance, with OBP dropping below season expectations more often than being above it. I should note here that the sample sizes are quite low in some cases. 2029 (an “up” year for Moreno’s post season numbers) consisted of only 5 games, while 2031 (a down year for his OBP) was made in only 5 seasons.
Scanning down the numbers, it’ shard to miss his bloated SLG. Looking at the cause, well, Moreno hit a tone of homers in the post season. So you could say that in Huntsville, it looks like Moreno dialed up the power in the post season. Of course, his walk-rate dropped.
But look what happens in California.
He’s been to the post season four times with the Crusaders. In one of those seasons, his slash has been worse. In one it’s been better, and in two it’s been split (in 16 games last year, and 5 this year). On the whole, the slugging percentage again rises, supporting the idea that Moreno may be focusing on hitting the ball out of the park in California, too. But, on the whole, Fernando Moreno has not appeared to be particularly “post-season clutch” in his years in California.
So, we’ve got a mixed bag.
COMPOSITE NUMBER COMPARISONS
I then tallied up career numbers in Huntsville and in California.
Bottom line, while in Huntsville, Moreno slashed .271/.380/.528 in the regular season vs. .305/.376/.681 in the post season. This increase is palpable, and shows in both power and BABIP—though the stats are made in only 351 AB, so one has to say it’s still subject to significance questions.
Especially given that his numbers in California (.243/.354/.489 vs. .238/.330/.554 … 101 AB) don’t show the same results—including the fact that his BABIP variance in California is harshly down.
SUMMARY?
Bottom line is that Moreno has been to the playoffs 12 times. Five of those seasons his slash/BABIP has been solidly better than his baseline. Two of those seasons, it’s been solidly below, and five other seasons it’s been mixed—all the while leaning toward positive SLG.
One thought here…is it possible that “clutch” exists as a hidden rating, but that it ages like other ratings? Moreno certainly appeared more clutch in Huntsville than he has in California, but his time in California was not at his prime.
Another question that strikes me is to wonder about the impact of ballparks. Huntsville was/is a beastly park for LHB HR, and in Moreno’s last two seasons California’s is likewise. Given that Moreno’s post-season BABIP numbers have been all over the map relative to his regular season performance, how much of that SLG increase is because of some kind of “clutch” rating, and how much might be because his teams play more home games than away (Both Huntsville and California often carry the home field advantage, and the sample sizes are not large…how do you weight park factors into playoff clutch?)
Bottom line is, I don’t know.
There’s enough in Moreno’s data to say he’s clutch, and enough to discount the idea. Randomness alone would say that, by definition, there would have to exist some star players who perform better than average, and some who perform worse. It’s probably fair to say overall that Moreno’s post-season performance has been a tick up over his regular season performance, but how big that tick is, and why it is, will probably always be fun to debate.
