International Complex Development: 1-Season Check-in

[RonCo]

At the end of last year’s regular season, with conversation running hot about the influx of International Complex guys, I took a snapshot of the 20 players who were in our BBA International Complex systems and had three or more stars—some of these guys were IFAs, and others came as gifts from the IC gods. Now it’s one year later, so this afternoon I took a quick spin around the league and caught up with them.

How are they doing? Are they growing or have they fallen off the cliff? Or both? The question, of course, is going to get answered in a couple different ways. Some are going to run the gauntlet and survive, others not so much. But now, one single year later, what are those actual numbers in the BBA?

Remember…this is only a single season’s worth of movement (actually, I guess 11 months).

Let’s start at the “bottom” with …

3-STAR PLAYERS

There were a total of 10 three-star players in the IC in October of 2035. Five of them have retained their ratings, two have dropped to be of only passing interest, and three are no longer candidates of any merit. Here is how I broke them out, including their teams and ages at this time last season.

Held Ratings:
Damek Korbel (7/8/6/4/6 Talents) (MEX) - 16
Enrique Hernandez (7/7/4/5/7 Talents) (VAL) - 16
Pedro Ruela (8/8/9/4/7 Talents) (RCK) - 17
Tiernan O'Macken (10/7/9 Talents) (YS9) - 17
Juan Valverde (6/9/6/6/5 Talents) (MEX) - 18

Lost Ratings (Semi-Prospects?)
Sam Bertrand (6/6/7/5/6 Talents) (RCK) - 16
Carlos Ricerdo (6/7/8/5/5 Talents) (DM) - 16

Stick a Pin in Them:
Felix Moran (5/5/5/5/6 Talents) (MEX) - 16
Jhong-shun Pi (5/6/6/4/6 Talents) (RCK) - 16
Benes Skalde (5/7/7/3/5 Talents) (LBC) – 17

At the end of the day, this is about a 50% yield on the year. You can be generous and say it’s 70%, but I’m guessing that Rockville and Des Moines wouldn’t share your enthusiasm for Bertrand and Ricerdo at this point--though both could still yield major league players--Ricerdo perhaps better more likely than Bertrand. Feel free to assess them yourselves, of course. That's among the reasons I'm writing this, after all.

One thing I note here is that the players who retained their ratings to date tend to be guys who were older. The lone 18-year-old held serve, and two of the three 17-year-olds have made it a year so far. Four of the six 16-year-olds have taken a dive, though. Let’s see if that trend continues as we move up the food chain.

4-STAR PLAYERS

There were four 4-Star players in the mix. Two retained their ratings, suggesting something outside the base ratings has degrades. Two others are now only semi-prospects at best. Again the breakout:

Held Ratings:
Quintiliano Rodeia (7/7/8 Talents) (OMA, now with CLG) - 16
Lucio Cuellar (10/9/3/4/10 Talents) (SA) – 17 (lost stars)

Lost Ratings (Semi-Prospects):
Tierney Care (6/8/5/4/7 Talents) (LV) - 16
Aidan MacIver (5/8/6/4/6 Talents) (MTL) – 16

Again, at this point, and with very little sample size, we see we’ve lost 50% of the pool—perhaps more if you want to call Cuellar’s loss of stars as a rating hit. Call it your own way. At this point, I’m just looking at the numbers. [grin]

I’ll note that all of these guys except MacIver are now out of the IC and have been playing. Both Care and MacIver still show some value, but are certainly question marks at this point. Again, I’d be surprised if either Matt of Gary considered them prime prospects at this point.

Which brings us to the top of the scale:

5-STAR PROSPECTS

At the end of the season, we had six 5-Star players in BBA International Complexes. Three of those six (again 50%) have held their ratings. A fourth has held his base ratings, but lost overall “stars.” One has faded to the point where he still has some life left, and another appears to already be a bust. Here’s my breakdown:

Held Ratings:
Liann-wei Mao (10/10/10/6/8 Talents) (CLG) 18
Raul Fernandez (8/10/10/7/6 Talents) (PHX) - 17
Carlos Granados (8/7/10 Talents) (CLG) - 18
Ricardo Ruiz (9/9/7/4/10 Talents) (BOI) – 17 (Lost Stars)


Lost Ratings (Semi-Prospects):
Yoshi Sakei (7/8/7 Talents) (BOI) – 16

Stick a Pin in Them:
Alfredo Sandoval (5/7/6/3/5 Talents) (NO) - 16

I find it interesting again that the split is essentially 50% (66% if you count Ruiz as not losing ratings). I also note that the split of ages is interesting. The data is nowhere near the level of statistical significance, but this data is in line with the base idea that the “loss rate” is inversely proportional to the players age, and that the curve could be sharp.

So, in response to the question of how well does a future superstar yield out of the IC, well, I’m not sure you can say. It seems that, overall, they have about a 50% chance to lose potential/ratings within one year. If my age theory holds water, maybe it’s something like 70% for 16 year-olds, 50% for 17 year-olds, and 35-40% for 18 year-olds, but what do I know? I’m just squinting at this data (though, in open disclosure, I’m also laying it over my experience with past systemic testing of the development model and assuming some things haven’t changed dramatically).

How far that potential falls when it falls seems variable.

I should also note again and again that this is the result of only one season of “development/degradation.” It’s possible some of these players who have crashed will come back—though admittedly I rarely see that. It’s also clearly possible that these guys (who are now 17-19 years old) will continue to fall off at a more rapid pace than they develop up. Be very careful. If I remember, I’ll come back to these same 20 players at this same time period next year and see what there is to learn from them.

Until then, my only suggestion is that teams with these resources (or trading for them) do their best to read your own odds and make your best bets.

[recte44]

Altenar has begun his lumps as well.

[RonCo]

Altenar is still a solid enough prospect, though. Right now, anyway.

[recte44]

Nowhere near the replacement for Ridder I thought he’d be, too bad.

[udlb58]

What about 3, 4, and 5* International signings and draft picks? Pretty much useless knowing the success rate of 1/3 of the type of players coming into the league as it provides 0 context. Is roughly 50% higher, lower, or the same as INT signings or draft picks? Anecdotally, 50% seems much higher than INT signings.

Also odd that the players with the top 4 ratings have not had any visible ratings hits yet.

[RonCo]

What about 3, 4, and 5* International signings and draft picks? Pretty much useless knowing the success rate of 1/3 of the type of players coming into the league as it provides 0 context. Is roughly 50% higher, lower, or the same as INT signings or draft picks? Anecdotally, 50% seems much higher than INT signings.

True enough. All I did was take a snapshot of the IC at the end of last regular season and follow them. I'll note, though, that includes IFA and scout finds, but only those that happened to be in the system at the time. I can (and do) do a lot more work in test leagues where I can follow classes from the minute they get created and whatnot. But without either (1) Doing a _lot_ of manual work, or (2) running my automated routines on the source files for BBA ratings (which I would not want to do in the BBA for obvious reasons), I've got no real way to do a fully comprehensive study on BBA.

Another point here is that there seems to be a set of folks here who think that the development engine is different in the IC than it is in the "regular minors." (A 16/17 year old in the IC is more likely to lump than a 16/17 year old in R-ball). I don't think this is true, but I honestly can't say for sure--though the limited data in these 20 players seems to fit my view of the base development engine...of course, a bunch of them are now out of the IC.

[RonCo]

Also odd that the players with the top 4 ratings have not had any visible ratings hits yet.

These guys were 17/18 when signed (in other words, on the older side). One of the 17 year olds seems to have dropped a bit someplace, though not in the main ratings. I'll note that if the ratings hit rate (lump rate) of an 18 year old is 25% per year (which is probably about right), then the chances of three 18 year olds not taking a hit is 42% or just about 50/50. So it's not that odd. Again, limited sample size.

[RonCo]

In other words, my view has always been that the development engine keys off age rather than source, and a 16 year old takes hits at a much higher rate than a 17 year old, who takes hits at a much higher rate than 18 year olds, who take hits a a slightly higher rate than 19 year olds. Regardless of source (IFA/draft/scouting find). But most IC scouting finds are 16 and 17--so those guys take hits at high rates. I have reams and reams of data to support this idea, but without knowing the code itself i can't -prove- anything, and none of it is based off BBA data.

It's been awhile since our BBA draft had 15 and 16 year olds in them, but I think that same dynamic happened back when it did.

[JimBob2232]

Sandoval is a huge disapointment.