2036 FL Silk Race Overview

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2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by RonCo » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:20 pm

As is usual most years, there are a few interesting candidates for the Frick League Sawyer Silk this year. Calgary’s Juan Karyabwite leads the league in hitting right now. California’s Claudio Defazio (.265/.385/.440, 15 HR, 61 RBI) is a media darling these days, as is Long Beach’s rookie Sloan Daniel. California’s Fernando Moreno would probably be in the front runner section if he could take a walk (and those in California would probably argue he belongs in there anyway). Sometimes you’ll hear Edmonton’s Mitch Dalrymple (.313/.349/.536, 28 HR, 81 RBI)’s name tossed about, and Madison’s Jon Mick (.277/.338/.560, 43 HR, 131 RBI) has to be looked at. There are others you could throw into the ring, too. But these guys, as solid as they are, are probably long shots. The fact is that we’re probably talking about four front runners, with the serious money really on two players.

To make this even more interesting, the four players come from two teams—Omaha and Yellow Springs.

TWO WHO MIGHT MAKE IT WORK

The longest shot of the top four is Nine second baseman Angel De Castillo (.295/.361/.530, 35 HR, 103 RBI). He’s helped by his switchiness, and the fact that he’s on pace for 40 homers for the first time in his career. His 103 RBI is 6th in the league and his 106 runs scored are second only to teammate Lucas McNeill (.322/.414/.561, 25 HR, 105 RBI). This is the kind of season Nine fans have been hoping for from De Castillo, and in some seasons it would be a Puckett kind of season at least. This year, however, while he can claim a fair bit of the Silk conversation, it’s probably not enough even for the Puckett because…

The next guy up is Omaha’s James Monger (.309/.367/.561, 31 HR, 107 RBI), also a second baseman.

There’s some debate as to whether Monger belongs up with the top two because he leads that league in WAR—the counter argument is that he gets a bigger chunk of that WAR from the defensive side of things, so to some degree we’ll see how the voters wedge defense into the conversation when it comes to Monger’s fate. Monger also plays in one of the most offensively-weighted ballparks in the league. That said, Monger’s 4th in the league in slugging (.561), 5th in the league in OPS (.928) and 6th in hitting (.309).

Of these two, it seems clear that De Castillo has the most work to do in the last month of the season, but he’s in the right position to pull off a September surprise. Monger is more likely to make a bigger splash. To the degree that the Silk is a PR game, one also wonders if Monger (and De Castillo for that matter), lose energy because they play with teammates who steal oxygen from the room.

THE FRONT-RUNNERS

It’s probably no great surprise that the front runners are Omaha’s Emilio Morales (.293/.334/.605, 49 HR, 137 RBI) and Yellow Springs’ Lucas McNeill (.322/.414/.561, 25 HR, 105 RBI).

Morales is one of the most recognizable young players in the league right now—being a practitioner of that longball thing that the chicks dig, and the owner of a shiny new contract that will pay him big bucks for six seasons. He arguably could have been the Silk Winner last year. He’s not going to match his 64 homers this year, but at 49 he leads the league by a pretty wide margin as well as currently being tied for the league’s best slugging percentage (with California’s 22-year-old sensation Esteban Cuervo (.272/.338/.605, 37 HR, 93 RBI)). Morales’s game is, perhaps, not as well-rounded as McNeill’s, but where he stands out, he really stands out.

McNeill is no stranger to the Sawyer conversation, having won the award in 2033. This season is perhaps going to wind up a tick short of that one, but that tick might be quite small. He’s in the running for his first ever batting title (currently one-point behind the aforementioned Karyabwite), sits tied with Monger for Slugging and leads the league in OBP, OPS, and runs scored. Going the advanced route, McNeill leads the league with 5.96 WPA (a half win more than Morales) and wOBA at .399 (ahead of Monger). Despite the home stadium deficit, his 69 extra base hits are only two behind Monger and Morales. It’s interesting to note that he’s doing this all in a “down” year where he’s hit only 25 homers.

On the PR front, while Morales’ contract got big press, McNeill’s situation with his opt-out and likely free agency has also drawn attention—not to mention his wife’s outburst about a semi-snub.

SO WHO’s GOING TO WIN?

There is, of course, a lot of baseball left to play, and the races are close enough that just about anything can happen. Perhaps one of the “dark horses” will raise up and beat all four of these guys (if so, my money is on Moreno).

It’s possible that De Castillo could have a big month and raise his profile—though he was a stronger candidate while his batting average was playing more strongly with .300, and the expectation is that he’ll fall short.

It’s possible that the league will see Monger’s overall value more strongly than this write-up sees it (with regard to the Silk vote). Or that Monger will take even another step up and blister the ball in September. It’s worth noting that Omaha plays 13 of its remaining 24 games at home, which will help those numbers. Perhaps that slant will give the same leg-up to Morales, who is probably the strongest Silk candidate on the basis of that raw power.

Of course, Yellow Springs plays at home for 15 of its last 19 (including what could be a scintillating season-ending series where they host Omaha). Perhaps that slant will keep McNeill hitting. Perhaps adding a batting title to his shelf of career achievements would sway voters.

Who knows?

In the end, that’s why they play the games.

But, yeah, we’re homers here. As much as it probably hurts us when it comes to the off-season contract stuff, we think Lucas McNeill (.322/.414/.561, 25 HR, 105 RBI) is the most versatile and valuable hitter in the league.

Now it’s only up to time to prove us right.

Or wrong.

Who knows?
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by niles08 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:35 pm

I think it's a blessing obviously that Monger & Morales play on the same team in the fact that we should win some games, but come award season it may hurt them more than anything as they might take votes from one another.

I think the only real winner is the crafty GM(whoever that is) who has both these guys playing on the same team haha.
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by recte44 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:12 pm

Morales as a plus defender at third base vs McNeill as a plus defender at first base might be the edge the slugger has in this race.

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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by udlb58 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm

So nice of you to write so many league features on the 2nd tier league Ron (22 of the last 26 champions currently reside in the JL)
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:47 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm
So nice of you to write so many league features on the 2nd tier league Ron (22 of the last 26 champions currently reside in the JL)
2035: California
2034: Havana/San Fernando
2029: Long Beach
2025: Hawaii
2024: California
2018: Calgary

which two of the 6 did you miss? Also somewhat incredible that Hawaii is one of the slackers of the FLP despite winning their title in 2025.
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:38 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm
So nice of you to write so many league features on the 2nd tier league Ron (22 of the last 26 champions currently reside in the JL)
Proof that our teams have to work so hard to beat other great Frick teams just to get to the Landis that we're expended once we get to the big series, and fall prey to inferior teams.

:cool:
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:41 pm

Of course, the JL was the place to be before 2029.

And since 2029 four of the last seven champions have come from the FL.

Heh!
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by RonCo » Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:49 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:47 pm
udlb58 wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm
So nice of you to write so many league features on the 2nd tier league Ron (22 of the last 26 champions currently reside in the JL)
2035: California
2034: Havana/San Fernando
2029: Long Beach
2025: Hawaii
2024: California
2018: Calgary

which two of the 6 did you miss? Also somewhat incredible that Hawaii is one of the slackers of the FLP despite winning their title in 2025.
Actually it's nine of 27 (going back just one more year?)

Madison
Hawaii
Calgary
Calgary
California
Hawaii
Long Beach
Havana/SFB
California

The current JL has a stronger history in the Landis...it's just not 22 of 26. And looking at recent history, the game changes. :)
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Re: 2036 FL Silk Race Overview

Post by udlb58 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:25 pm

usnspecialist wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:47 pm
udlb58 wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm
So nice of you to write so many league features on the 2nd tier league Ron (22 of the last 26 champions currently reside in the JL)
2035: California
2034: Havana/San Fernando
2029: Long Beach
2025: Hawaii
2024: California
2018: Calgary

which two of the 6 did you miss? Also somewhat incredible that Hawaii is one of the slackers of the FLP despite winning their title in 2025.
I forgot Hawaii went back with the 2nd re-alignment, and was forgetting your move. Was counting Calix2, LB, Calgary. It was all tongue-in-cheek anyway. Half of those wins are by teams that were in the FL when they won and have since moved; and it isn't like 2028 (let alone 2018) has anything to do with 2036.
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