Is Infield Error Broken?

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Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by Lane » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:42 pm

IS THE INFIELD ERROR RATING BROKEN?

(OR WHY THE F*CK DOES JJ MCQUADE HAVE 16 ERRORS THIS SEASON)

A CALM AND POLITE INVESTIGATION

From the manual:
Infield / Outfield Error
Error is a measure of how likely a defensive player is to commit an error. This rating includes both fielding errors (dropping or misplaying the ball) and throwing errors (pulling the first baseman off the bag, throwing inaccurately). The Error rating is inversely related to errors. That is, players with high Error ratings are less likely to commit errors. Players have separate ratings for infield and outfield error. These values can be fairly different, based on the player's experience.
With Brieuc Becker being my primary SS since I came into the league, I've always kind of put up with what I thought was a high number of errors, and I accepted it as an OK trade off for his excellent range. Becker's infield error rating is currently 6, and as best as I can remember that's about what it's always been.

Now, as you know I've recently acquired J.J. McQuade, he of the 11 infield error rating. "Finally, a SS who won't make errors!" I thought, naively. The errors came. And then more errors. And then last sim my team gave up 9 unearned runs. And so now I'm mad and confused! I should be working on HOF stuff for Ron, but no, McQuade and his 16 errors despite an 11 infield error rating has me all worked up.

*deep breath*

Here's everyone listed as a 2B, 3B or SS who has a minimum of 200 chances this season, INF ERR rating on the X and Fielding % on the Y.
INF error min 400 chances.png

Hmmm. Ok, maybe I need to up the minimum. 400 chances this time.
INF error min 400 chances.png

Huh. Oh! There's a couple first basemen in there. Ok, let's use a minimum of 300 assists.
INF error min 300 assists.png

Some numbers...small sample size yada yada yada...
INF ERRFLD %
7.980
8.979
9.981
10.988
11.982

Despite the small sample size here, I'm really confused by the numbers. Now, it's not like I expect the guys with the 11 rating to never make errors. But I would expect to see a different trend here, since the manual is pretty clear about exactly what the INF ERR rating is supposed to do.

If we ignore the first basemen, it kind of looks like there's a decent trend from 5 through 10. But what makes me think there's something wonky is when we get to 11. The average drops down and there's no improvement on the top end...there's a nice neat cap at .990 for the 9s, 10s and 11s (but there's an 8 there above .990?).

I really don't know what do say, except maybe it's small sample size stuff. Because otherwise I guess there could be something wonky in the coding that isn't properly managing guys with INF ERR above max. (This would be in contrast to how it's handling guys with, say, STEAL > max).

That's all for now. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on this.
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INF error min 300 assists.png
INF error min 200 chances.png
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by agrudez » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:10 pm

Interesting stuff - thanks. I wonder what the correlation of range and error might have on "error proneness"? As a hypothetical, the code could have static designations for "difficult" plays and more rangey infielders, then, are subjected to a higher amplitude of "difficult" plays (and, thus, have more potential to errors).
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by Spiccoli » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:37 pm

I don't get it either... Mark Wareham commited 32 errors last season (.957 fielding %) and 25 (.966%) errors the season before.

I just chalked it up to season to season fluctuations the game seems to put into the game engine. Like how a seeming solid offensive player can just have one (or two) crappy season in the middle of several good to great seasons.
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by Joshua Biddle » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:29 pm

Interesting
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by udlb58 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:15 pm

I feel like something changed with the INF error calculation in OOTP 18. Through version 17, Lloyd Braun's career high for errors as a professional SS was 9 (he's had far more errors when training other positions, but that was the most playing SS in a season). In 18/19, his error totals are 24, 10, 16, 12, 9 (and counting). He has 11 Error, and is a .979 fielder over the past 4-and-a-half seasons.

I'm thinking maybe arm has more of an affect than previously thought? Both McQuade and Braun have 8 arms, which isn't bad but definitely not top tier in the league. Maybe the majority of those errors are throwing errors?
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by Joshua Biddle » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:15 am

udlb58 wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:15 pm
I feel like something changed with the INF error calculation in OOTP 18. Through version 17, Lloyd Braun's career high for errors as a professional SS was 9 (he's had far more errors when training other positions, but that was the most playing SS in a season). In 18/19, his error totals are 24, 10, 16, 12, 9 (and counting). He has 11 Error, and is a .979 fielder over the past 4-and-a-half seasons.

I'm thinking maybe arm has more of an affect than previously thought? Both McQuade and Braun have 8 arms, which isn't bad but definitely not top tier in the league. Maybe the majority of those errors are throwing errors?
That's exactly what I'm wondering firsthand based on Vela (10/11/7/10 range/errors/arm/DP) and his error totals compared to his ratings.
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Re: Is Infield Error Broken?

Post by RonCo » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:38 pm

When you look at variance, here's an interesting question...

If a player with .980 base fielding capability is hit 200 BIZ, what are the chances that he'll perform at .950 or worse? The answer is a little over 8% if I've got my scenario right. So if a result is random, roughly 1 in 10 fundamentally good fielders will fairly heavily under-perform. If that _doesn't_ happen, then the results are likely not random in nature. :)
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