This quote came from an exchange I had earlier in a Charm City TN and it got me thinking... what *is* the realm of possibility for a player bumping a defensive rating? I missed an entire version of OOTP in v18 and barely remember v17 so maybe my thought processes needs to be re-calibrated; however, I was always under the impression that players didn't do this - even while developing (which is why I look at a prospect like Oh III and have such a hard time getting excited).bcslouck wrote:Though at 16/17, it isn't out of the realm of possibility to see Velasquez range bump some and Dijkman arm also bump.
To do this exercise, I went through the OOTPou dev reports for free agents (the biggest 1 shot sample size I could find) and parsed out all the instances of IF range and OF range bumps across the 2032-2034 seasons. One "issue" is that there is no way of knowing how many free agents there were in the pool for any given season, but currently there are 1169 FA bats - as a point of reference. The tables below show the number of times a bump from a number to another number occurred in IF range and OF range across 3 seasons.
2034
IF range OF range
1-2 9 1-2 7
2-3 16 2-3 12
3-4 13 3-4 7
4-5 5 4-5 21
5-6 23 5-6 14
6-7 13 6-7 11
7-8 11 7-8 11
8-9 10 8-9 5
9-10 1 9-10 2
SUM 101 SUM 90
2033
IF range OF range
1-2 8 1-2 10
2-3 19 2-3 16
3-4 13 3-4 13
4-5 10 4-5 26
5-6 30 5-6 23
6-7 27 6-7 22
7-8 19 7-8 7
8-9 12 8-9 7
9-10 2 9-10 1
SUM 140 SUM 125
2032
IF range OF range
1-2 21 1-2 13
2-3 28 2-3 25
3-4 14 3-4 19
4-5 22 4-5 31
5-6 28 5-6 24
6-7 36 6-7 22
7-8 32 7-8 10
8-9 2 8-9 9
9-10 1 9-10 2
SUM 184 SUM 155
If we use the 1169 FA bats (which could be tangibly different between the seasons - so don't read too much into it) as a denominator for these seasons just to get a relative idea of percentage of players that received range bumps we come up with...
2034: 16.33%
2033: 22.66%
2032: 28.99%
If we use the 2034 percentage (the one whose denominator is most likely to be correlative with the current FA total - making it the "safer" bet to use in an estimate) and assume (because we need an assumption to do this exercise - if for no other reason) that dev has stopped by ~24 years old then we can project forward an aggregated probability of independent events for different prospects...
16 year old IFA (8 years of dev):
0.1633*(1+(1-0.1633)+(1-0.1633)^2+(1-0.1633)^3+(1-0.1633)^4+(1-0.1633)^5+(1-0.1633)^6+(1-0.1633)^7)=75.98%
18 year old HS draftee (6 years of dev):
=0.1633*(1+(1-0.1633)+(1-0.1633)^2+(1-0.1633)^3+(1-0.1633)^4+(1-0.1633)^5)=65.69%
22 year old college draftee (2 years of dev):
0.1633+(1-0.1633)*0.1633=29.99%
So, regardless of the potential funkiness of the numbers (due to not being able to nail down that denominator), it appears that defensive ratings bumps are much more prevalent than I would have otherwise thought. Maybe I'll look differently at the next IFA class chock full of 5 range "tweeners".
