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Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:34 pm
by RonCo
Whiling away a little time...I'm going to do this "feature" on a few posts/replies...
Have you ever wondered who gave up the most Intentional Walks in a season? Yeah, kinda an odd thing to wonder, but I was wondering it anyway...which says something, I suppose. But, did you know that fifteen pitchers offered 10 or more freebies this year? Here they are:
Code: Select all
Name TM IBB
José Cavazos HNT 19
Dan West VAN 15
Fergus Penntcock HNT 15
Luis Espinoza VAN 13
José Pérez DM 13
Mario Contreras HNT 13
Fred Poe VAN 13
Jaime Moreno HNT 12
Ray Perkins VAN 12
Sergio Ramírez DM 12
Pablo Figueroa VAN 11
Cam Palácios MTL 11
Bob Sanderson JAX 11
Bert Hugill VAN 11
Flint Colbert SA 10
Huntsville and Vancouver...man...nine of the fifteen are from these guys.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:36 pm
by RonCo
This got me to thinking about wild pitches. It seems like to have a bunch of wild pitches you probably need to put a lot of guys on base, and then, well...move them along. Here's the list of 14 pitchers who had 11 or more WP
Code: Select all
Name TM WP
Alfredo Contreras SEA 18
Bob Corrigan PHX 17
Dan Cannon ATC 14
Stephen Clulow NSH 14
Arthur Dempster RCK 13
Juan Jose Ornelas SA 13
Tim Oliver YS9 13
Johnny Morin EDM 13
Jorge Ortíz VAL 12
Juan Nicto NSH 12
Luis Gracía CAL 12
Augusto Cruz LBC 12
Harry Considine PHX 11
Juan Rodríguez RCK 11
I'm not particularly pleased to see Tim Oliver there, but the guy is certaily on the wild side. Which got me to wondering about the relation of BB/9 to WP/9. When I took all pitchers who recored at least 100 IP, then ran their WP/9 vs. BB/9 numbers I got a positive, but moderate correlation of .31. Not sure what it means, but, hey, it sounds like it's ok.
Here's the chart.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:42 pm
by usnspecialist
given my seeming disdain for control based pitchers (and throwing my guys a lot of innings), im surprised to not see reed or Ramirez on the WP list.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:45 pm
by RonCo
Let's talk about that sizzling topic: inherited runners. I pulled the top 15 pitchers who entered the game with the most guys on base. It ranged from Anastasio Lopez (74) to Hermengildo Padez (46).
Code: Select all
Name TM IR IRS %
Anastasio López MEX 74 11 0.129411765
Augusto Cruz LBC 69 14 0.168674699
José Féliz LBC 64 13 0.168831169
Marko Efremov RCK 62 8 0.114285714
Raúl Sánchez CCJ 60 13 0.178082192
Chris Dougherty SA 59 24 0.289156627
Harold Lane MAD 52 10 0.161290323
Alphonse Salvarani TWC 52 14 0.212121212
Germão Real PHX 51 11 0.177419355
Ray Boswell CAL 51 9 0.15
Ricardo Valera MEX 47 14 0.229508197
Alan Domínguez BRK 47 9 0.160714286
Dillon Young CCJ 47 11 0.189655172
Andy Cantrell JAX 46 12 0.206896552
Hermenegildo Padez YS9 46 7 0.132075472
Lopez was fantastic at 13% (as was Padez). Only Rockville's Marko Efremov at 11% was better. On the bottom of the scale was San Antonio's Chris Dougherty, who let 29% of his 59 inherited runners score. Again, not sure what it means, but I note that none of these guys are the big star closers (Jacksonville's Andy Cantrell led this group with 9 saves). These are kind of meat and potatoe kind of bullpen guys who eat up the ugly innings. Make of that what you will.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:47 pm
by RonCo
usnspecialist wrote:given my seeming disdain for control based pitchers (and throwing my guys a lot of innings), im surprised to not see reed or Ramirez on the WP list.
Ramirez threw 7 WP last year, Reed 6.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:51 pm
by usnspecialist
RonCo wrote:usnspecialist wrote:given my seeming disdain for control based pitchers (and throwing my guys a lot of innings), im surprised to not see reed or Ramirez on the WP list.
Ramirez threw 7 WP last year, Reed 6.
with those numbers (and their control ratings), jose gamboa must be a god at blocking pitches.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:59 pm
by RonCo
What else can we take a scan at...how about pitcher's ability to control the running game?
I took all pitchers, added their "Hold" ratings, and then tallied up the number of steals and CS against each "Hold" rating. In other words, while "Hold" may well limit the number of attempts, does it do anything to affect the CS% once a runner takes off?
The answer? ... Maybe a little
Here's the resulting table:
Code: Select all
Hold SB CS SB%
1 57 32 0.640449438
2 265 162 0.620608899
3 211 99 0.680645161
4 826 379 0.685477178
5 999 480 0.675456389
6 995 516 0.658504302
7 995 560 0.639871383
8 1004 505 0.665341286
9 1019 543 0.652368758
10 571 328 0.635150167
11 445 242 0.647743814
Grand Total 7387 3846
Ultimately, it seems to me that the catcher arm rating must play more in SB% defense than the pitcher's hold rating, but the data here isn't particularl powerful either way to my eyes. Doing a plot of the SB% by Hold, and adding a linear trendline gives you this:
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:00 pm
by RonCo
usnspecialist wrote:RonCo wrote:usnspecialist wrote:given my seeming disdain for control based pitchers (and throwing my guys a lot of innings), im surprised to not see reed or Ramirez on the WP list.
Ramirez threw 7 WP last year, Reed 6.
with those numbers (and their control ratings), jose gamboa must be a god at blocking pitches.
That would be an interesting piece of data to have (how well does C-Ability limit WP?)
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:03 pm
by RonCo
For closure, here are the 18 pitchers that gave up at least 45 SB in 2033:
Code: Select all
Name TM SB CS IP
José Trujillo PHX 76 23 232.1
Stephen Clulow NSH 72 31 226.2
André Georges RCK 58 17 192.1
Juan Rodríguez RCK 56 23 175
Jon Chandler BRK 54 26 188.1
Abe Colbert, Jr. LOU 54 22 219.1
Oliver Leyva VAL 52 17 210.1
Randall Thomas YS9 49 8 121.1
António Correa ATC 49 21 246.1
Arturo Reyes CCJ 49 17 220
Juan Jose Ornelas SA 49 24 170.1
Arthur Dempster RCK 48 34 221
Manuel Peña MTL 48 17 206.1
Ramón Hernández DM 48 26 199.2
Travis Arnold TWC 47 25 221.2
José Morales BRK 46 22 196
Tony Canales CCJ 45 19 200.1
Kidanu Cherono NSH 45 11 147.1
Interesting to note that YS9's Randall Thomas was on this list despite tossing by far the fewest innings of any of the rest.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:06 pm
by RonCo
Fun Stat of the Moment...18 BBA pitchers balked more than one time in 2033:
Code: Select all
Name TM BK
José Trujillo PHX 3
Nicholas Sutton CCJ 3
Mario González BRK 3
Ramón Hernández DM 2
Reese Rayner TWC 2
Chris Kelly TWC 2
Marcos Villegas MAD 2
Tim Oliver YS9 2
Andre Jacobs ATC 2
Harry Considine PHX 2
Ken Walter SEA 2
Bob Corrigan PHX 2
Lambert Snabel OMA 2
Júlio Velasco LV 2
Luis Gracía CAL 2
Alberto Sánchez YS9 2
José Amaro CAL 2
Colt Anderson DM 2
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm
by aaronweiner
It would be interesting to know if hold runner limits the NUMBER of SB attempts rather than the success rate.
RonCo wrote:What else can we take a scan at...how about pitcher's ability to control the running game?
I took all pitchers, added their "Hold" ratings, and then tallied up the number of steals and CS against each "Hold" rating. In other words, while "Hold" may well limit the number of attempts, does it do anything to affect the CS% once a runner takes off?
The answer? ... Maybe a little
Here's the resulting table:
Code: Select all
Hold SB CS SB%
1 57 32 0.640449438
2 265 162 0.620608899
3 211 99 0.680645161
4 826 379 0.685477178
5 999 480 0.675456389
6 995 516 0.658504302
7 995 560 0.639871383
8 1004 505 0.665341286
9 1019 543 0.652368758
10 571 328 0.635150167
11 445 242 0.647743814
Grand Total 7387 3846
Ultimately, it seems to me that the catcher arm rating must play more in SB% defense than the pitcher's hold rating, but the data here isn't particularl powerful either way to my eyes. Doing a plot of the SB% by Hold, and adding a linear trendline gives you this:
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:15 pm
by RonCo
aaronweiner wrote:It would be interesting to know if hold runner limits the NUMBER of SB attempts rather than the success rate.
Some of my early testing says that Hold does limit the number of steals to some degree, but it's been a few versions since I've looked at it. That's much harder data to gather.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:19 pm
by RonCo
Here's an interesting little chart. First time I've ever asked this question...does a pitcher's velocity affect the success of a SBA or not. As with the earlier quick and dirty look, I tallied up all SBA against pitchers of various velocities (the numbers are the low end of the velocity range). This chart would say that in 2033 BBA it did not...but, seriously, do not take this information as a fact. We're just having fun with numbers here. This data, though, say's the affect is almost reversed.
Code: Select all
Velocity SB CS SB%
85 35 10 0.777777778
86 34 18 0.653846154
87 37 25 0.596774194
88 77 47 0.620967742
89 233 126 0.64902507
90 250 132 0.654450262
91 436 252 0.63372093
92 334 178 0.65234375
93 720 383 0.652765186
94 872 442 0.663622527
95 991 470 0.678302533
96 1052 493 0.680906149
97 760 404 0.652920962
98 471 243 0.659663866
99 1043 606 0.632504548
100 42 17 0.711864407
7387 3846
Here's a chart of the above...
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:32 pm
by RonCo
Another Flashpoint Look...who throws harder, lefties or righties? In the BBA it's close...
Code: Select all
Throws Avg VEL
L 94.02836879
R 94.74331551
94.54757282
Except...of course, that's just all the guys in the league. How about the guys who throw the most?
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:46 pm
by RonCo
When we take every inning pitched by lefties and righties, then weight them by their pitcher's velocities, we get this:
Code: Select all
Throws Avg. Vel
L 94.17162174
R 95.05476243
So, on the whole the average RHP throws harder than the average LHP. Again, these are the bottom of the velocity ranges.
Here are the left handed pitchers in the league in 2033 who throw 100 MPH or more.
Code: Select all
Name TM VELO
Germão Real PHX 100+ Mph
Luis Gracía CAL 99-101 Mph
Jubal Troop MTL 99-101 Mph
Conan Harris BRK 99-101 Mph
Álex López MTL 99-101 Mph
Claudio Escobedo CCJ 99-101 Mph
Esteban Velásquez SEA 99-101 Mph
León Ramírez HAV 99-101 Mph
Bobby Lynch EDM 99-101 Mph
Mario Contreras HNT 99-101 Mph
Luis Ortega NO 99-101 Mph
Bart Ender MAD 99-101 Mph
Gabriel Alfonso NO 99-101 Mph
Andy Cantrell JAX 99-101 Mph
Ángel Calderón OMA 99-101 Mph
Renzo Stefanelli JAX 99-101 Mph
Ken Crawford CCJ 99-101 Mph
Ferguson Gibson HAV 99-101 Mph
Pavel Bure, Jr. LV 99-101 Mph
Leonardo Montés BRK 99-101 Mph
Juan Jose Eilzando TWC 98-100 Mph
José Chávez YS9 98-100 Mph
Ángelo Delgado SA 98-100 Mph
Shawn Huber LV 98-100 Mph
John Woods OMA 98-100 Mph
Tai Xú BRK 98-100 Mph
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:13 pm
by udlb58
RonCo wrote:Whiling away a little time...I'm going to do this "feature" on a few posts/replies...
Have you ever wondered who gave up the most Intentional Walks in a season? Yeah, kinda an odd thing to wonder, but I was wondering it anyway...which says something, I suppose. But, did you know that fifteen pitchers offered 10 or more freebies this year? Here they are:
Code: Select all
Name TM IBB
José Cavazos HNT 19
Dan West VAN 15
Fergus Penntcock HNT 15
Luis Espinoza VAN 13
José Pérez DM 13
Mario Contreras HNT 13
Fred Poe VAN 13
Jaime Moreno HNT 12
Ray Perkins VAN 12
Sergio Ramírez DM 12
Pablo Figueroa VAN 11
Cam Palácios MTL 11
Bob Sanderson JAX 11
Bert Hugill VAN 11
Flint Colbert SA 10
Huntsville and Vancouver...man...nine of the fifteen are from these guys.
And Sanderson was due to his time with Huntsville, 10 of his 11 were with the Phantoms. We issued just 24 IBB on the season.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:17 pm
by udlb58
RonCo wrote:Let's talk about that sizzling topic: inherited runners. I pulled the top 15 pitchers who entered the game with the most guys on base. It ranged from Anastasio Lopez (74) to Hermengildo Padez (46).
Code: Select all
Name TM IR IRS %
Anastasio López MEX 74 11 0.129411765
Augusto Cruz LBC 69 14 0.168674699
José Féliz LBC 64 13 0.168831169
Marko Efremov RCK 62 8 0.114285714
Raúl Sánchez CCJ 60 13 0.178082192
Chris Dougherty SA 59 24 0.289156627
Harold Lane MAD 52 10 0.161290323
Alphonse Salvarani TWC 52 14 0.212121212
Germão Real PHX 51 11 0.177419355
Ray Boswell CAL 51 9 0.15
Ricardo Valera MEX 47 14 0.229508197
Alan Domínguez BRK 47 9 0.160714286
Dillon Young CCJ 47 11 0.189655172
Andy Cantrell JAX 46 12 0.206896552
Hermenegildo Padez YS9 46 7 0.132075472
Lopez was fantastic at 13% (as was Padez). Only Rockville's Marko Efremov at 11% was better. On the bottom of the scale was San Antonio's Chris Dougherty, who let 29% of his 59 inherited runners score. Again, not sure what it means, but I note that none of these guys are the big star closers (Jacksonville's Andy Cantrell led this group with 9 saves). These are kind of meat and potatoe kind of bullpen guys who eat up the ugly innings. Make of that what you will.
If there was a way to make a guy come in as a closer only when the remaining scheduled hitters were left handed, Andy Cantrell would end up with 20 saves a year.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:21 pm
by RonCo
Let's talk about the headhunters in the league. Here are the pitchers across the league who finished with 15 or more HP.
Code: Select all
Name TM BF HP
Jubal Troop MTL 890 22
Stephen Clulow NSH 963 18
Abe Colbert, Jr. LOU 942 18
Jaime Mercado CAL 787 18
Jon Reed HAV 881 16
Anastasio Quintana LOU 843 16
Adam Coughlan EDM 802 16
Rodger van der Knaap EDM 834 15
Noonien Soong CLG 565 15
Note two Louisvillian's...though Colbert is a knuckler, so that's probably understandable.
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:23 pm
by RonCo
Moving to a different set of stats completely...
Here is the list of players in the league with more than 10 Baserunning Runs:
Name TM (BsR)
Mons Raider MAD (29)
Steve Dempsey MAD (13)
Re: Odd Thoughts While Waiting for the Playoffs to Run...
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:29 pm
by RonCo
Mexico City's
Rhett Lawson is a 22 year old CF in his second season. He stole 8 bases. At the cost of getting thrown out 25 times. That's right: the 9/6 Speed/Steal guy was successful 8 of 33 times. He registered a league-worst -10.6 Base Running Runs.
Four players registers -10 Baserunning runs or worse this year:
Lawson = -10.6
Fernando Martinez HAW = -10.1
Jimmy Starks, Jr OMA = -10.1
Tu-fu Yong PHX = -10.0