Analysis of the First Round of the 2056 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a likely one-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1. The possible second part is Weiner's Top Ten, in which I detail who I think should have been the top ten picks and why, which hasn’t happened lately and might not this year either unless I’m feeling really hard up for PPT.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. I believe the children are our future, no matter how good or bad that looks. My understanding of players has evolved over time: I now believe they have adapted to have six legs, like insects, for running stability. This realization spies a spike in spikes, but spiking in celebration over a spike in spikes can only be done in spite. Do not use as Vegemite.

____________________________________________________________________________________

First Round Analysis:

1. CF/OF Teddy Bullock (Brooklyn): Brooklyn drafts the Bullock from Down Under, in what might become known as the “Australian Draft,” as several first rounders are from the place where women glow and men chunder. There are actually quite a few notable BBA players from Australia (Arthur Dempster, for example) – look it up! Anyway, Bullock is a raw head case with a load of potential who probably isn’t a center fielder on the major league level but might mash some to the second level of seats in center field. He’s probably a mediocre defensive corner outfielder instead of a center fielder, but stranger things have happened. The guy is smart but with terrible intangibles otherwise, so hopefully they can fix his attitude. Along with Frank Liyongo, Brooklyn is definitely aiming for contention sometime around 2060.

____________________________________________

2. SP Hannes Schwartzer (Yellow Springs): Yellow Springs takes the opposite tack from Brooklyn, taking last year’s Fox Mulder runner-up Schwartzer. The high-character, well-developed lefty from Austria (not to be confused with Australia) had an outstanding four-year college career and should be a solid pro and a boring interview. Schwartzer doesn’t throw hard, even for a lefty, but he has well-developed stuff, good movement, and good endurance.

____________________________________________

3. SP Brian Whitford (Atlantic City): The Gamblers take the safe Australian, the koala bear to Bullock’s boxing kangaroo. (Though I hear from women that a koala eats shoots and leaves. I wonder if that’s what “chunder” means.) Whitford was the IFC Pitcher of the Year, posting a 6-1 K/BB ratio in college, and projects to be a good control pitcher in the pros. His fastball/slider/sinker repertoire hits the mid-90s, and he’s just 18 years old so he might gain extra velocity, which would go a long way with his makeup. Well-developed for his age, Whitford still has a long way to the majors but looks promising.

____________________________________________

4. SP Tony Radtke (Chicago): While he didn’t win any awards, Radke had an unquestionably spectacular high school career, and he’s one of the most classical starter prospects in this draft. Already a hard thrower at age 16, Radtke has reasonable command of four pitches and projects to have strong command of all of them, along with excellent movement and above average control. Additional velocity might push him to the next level. Mature and team-oriented, Radtke should be a huge boon to the Chicago organization.

____________________________________________

5. SP Lanny Reed (Seattle): A no-surprise autopick at #5 sends a talented young Israeli starter to the Pacific Northwest. Reed had an excellent year last year pitching in high school, and while he’s still very raw for a young 17 year old, he throws hard for a teenager. Reed would benefit tremendously from additional velocity, as his repertoire is basically three fastballs: a classical one, a cutter, and a sinker. He’d be an easy reliever conversion if he doesn’t make it, but since he should have plus command of all three pitches he should be a solid starter. Good intangibles will help.

____________________________________________

6. SP Thomas Rowe (Portland): Another Australian, Rowe is a rocket-armed teenager who needs a lot of seasoning but could be very spicy after developing. Already hitting 98 on the gun, Rowe has “only” four pitches (a small number for a Chris Wilson draft choice) but should have reasonable command of all of them. Velocity would help him if he could get the last few MPH on his sinker, but it probably won’t happen.


____________________________________________

7. SP Leif Leclair (Computer sends players to New Orleans): The near-annual New Orleans autopick sends a nearly developed cool Canadian starter to the hot Bayou. Leclair needs very little refinement to reach his potential, with a wicked changeup as his out pitch and a penchant for ground balls. Leclair will have to be a starter as he would make a very poor reliever conversion.

____________________________________________

8. IF/SP/RP/Not Ohtani either Jacquot Natta (Charlotte): Natta is a high character, two-way player from Argentina who might be a starting pitcher, might be a starting outfielder, and is currently very raw. As an outfielder, he projects as a inconsistent righty contact/power bat with a decent batting eye; as a starting pitcher, he projects as a five-pitch control specialist with good velocity but poor stamina and who might be better as a reliever conversion. We’ll see how they use him but he’s an interesting player.
____________________________________________

9. SS/2B Kensaku Kato (San Fernando): Kato, the 2053 IFC Hitter of the Year, is a righty infield prospect whose calling card is defense and whose college batting numbers are unlikely to translate into the pros, as he was more developed than others his age. Kato drew 81 walks as a college infielder in 567 at bats, but he is projected to have a below-average major league batting eye. A truly outstanding fielder in college, Kato could be very good in the pros as well, especially if he shows improvement. Good intangibles will help.

____________________________________________

10. C Sam Butler (Calgary): Nice year for Calgary so far: 28-16 and a top ten draft pick. Butler, a well-developed college player, projects as a free-swinging righty powerhitter, potentially a plus bat if he sticks at catcher. Butler’s defense at catcher is somewhat sketchy, though the righty powerhitter can call a game. He’s still got a bit to go at age 21, but good chance he’ll be ready within two years to fix their gaping hole at catcher.

____________________________________________

11. SP Kasib Majd (San Antonio): Majd is another autopick, but he’s a very interesting one. The hard throwing Lebanese righty had a tough year last year in high school, but before that he had been outstanding. Majd is not badly developed for his age, and fully developed should be a solid rotation starter that throws five pitches for strikes. It’s possible he doesn’t pick up much velocity, since he’s already in the mid-90s and leads with a cutter, but it might help a little bit. He appears to be a model citizen and hard working.

____________________________________________

12. LF Octavio Martinez (Rockville): The Pikemen take the very popular, very composed IFC Hitter of the Year, and fans everywhere rejoice. The Argentine hit .400 in 200 at bats last year, and while he’s not projected to be nearly that good in the pros at this point, he looks like a solid righty contact/power bat with solid defensive instincts and decent speed.

____________________________________________

13. 3B Loren Larson (Valencia): The former Phoenix 6th round pick went on to have an excellent college career, winning two Platinum Sticks and improving his power and batting eye. He’s a toolsy player who is rough around the edges, but he should be useful both at the plate and in the field, and his glove should play fine at the hot corner.

____________________________________________

14. IF/OF Reynaldo Serrano (Vancouver): The Mounties select the 2055 Bo Jordan Award winner, who had an epic 2055 season (.411/.470/.682) and followed it up by finishing third in the voting the next year. Serrano’s bat doesn’t project to be as good in the pros as it was in college, but it is believed that Serrano could potentially be a starter at either second base or center field, which makes him very unusual. He’ll be ready in a hurry for Vancouver and he’ll be an interesting one to watch.

____________________________________________
15. LF Greg Clover (Long Beach): Clover is a righty-hitting outfielder with average skills all around who is reasonably advanced for his age. He’s a little bit of a surprise pick given that his numbers fell off in his junior year, but he should be a balanced hitter who also fields his position adequately. Bad intangibles won’t help.

____________________________________________

16. CF/IF Jerry Woodall (Louisville): Woodall is an elite fielding prospect with good gap power, very good speed, and a reasonable batting eye for his age. Just 16 years old, Woodall already has outstanding instincts in the outfield, and could also potentially be used as an infielder, where he might be less valuable. His bat is the question right now, as his righty bat might not translate well to a starting position and he didn’t hit all that well in two out of three years of high school. His floor looks like an outstanding fifth outfielder.
____________________________________________


17. SP/RP Will Traylor (Edmonton): Traylor has some warts, but he also has outstanding velocity on his pitches for a 16 year old and could be an excellent reliever conversion. Traylor hits 98 MPH on his cutter, but right now his pitches are a bit too straight. He has reasonable command of all of them at his age, a rarity. Excellent intangibles will help, and maybe some major league coaching.

____________________________________________

18. SP/Likely RP url=https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 65265.html]John O’Leary[/url] (Phoenix): O’Leary is listed as a starter but will almost surely end up in the bullpen, where his fastball/sinker combination should play well; plus, Phoenix has a long history of reliever conversions. He only hits 94 on the gun at this point, but he’s just 17 and could gain natural velocity outside of the conversion. Excellent movement for his age and plus control potential. Good intangibles will help.

____________________________________________

19. CF Kamil Ghilzai (Madison): Pakistani Ghilzai is the sort of plug-and-play outfielder that might play well in a defensive park like Madison’s. The lefty hitting defensive whiz has excellent defensive metrics and good speed, but a highly suspect bat at this point in his career. If he can hit enough to warrant keeping his glove out there, he’ll be a long-term starter.

____________________________________________

20. SP/RP Vassily Davletyarov (Boise): The first-place Spuds pick up a long-term pitching prospect by autopick. Davletyarov’s makeup is solid throughout, a four-pitch starter with potentially three pitches he can throw for strikes. Poor endurance might force him to get a reliever conversion, which would make sense for him. Mediocre intangibles won’t help.

____________________________________________

21. LF Keith Jahnke (Las Vegas): Jahnke is a solid lefty-hitting college outfielder with well-developed plate skills and passable defensive metrics. A solid contact hitter with some pop, Jahnke won the Platinum Stick at LF in 2055 and followed it up with a .916 OPS the next year. Nearly fully developed with good intangibles, Jahnke could replace Kidane Ata as soon as next year.

____________________________________________

22. 2B/OF Isoruko Takimoto (Jacksonville): Takimoto is a switch-hitting second baseman whose final destination might be left field. The Japanese native projects to have a solid contact bat and solid plate skills across the board, though none of them grade much above average at this point. An excellent fielding second baseman in high school, Takimoto also played outfield as a sophomore and might ultimately end up as an outfielder, though the Hurricanes are no doubt hoping he can stick at second base.

____________________________________________

23. 1B/DH Bailey Sang (Valencia): Also-Australian Sang might be the best pure hitter in the draft, but is very unlikely to be a second baseman at the next level, which is why he fell to #23. A solid contact bat with a steady swing and some pop, Sang’s batting eye is just average and so is his power potential at this point. He’s less developed than you’d want for a college hitter, and Sang probably won’t be a good defensive four, but he has enough range that he could be good defensively at first base. Also, Sang is a bigger head case than Bullock.

____________________________________________
24. LF/RP Vicente Martinez (Hawaii): Martinez is likely a left fielder, not a relief pitcher, but stranger things have happened. Lefty-hitting Martinez has all five tools, but not in massive quantity; he’s a fair contact hitter, has a little pop, runs a bit and looks mediocre defensively. A notable lefty platoon might help his career. Durable, young, inexpensive to sign, and possesses excellent intangibles.

____________________________________________

25. 3B Emilio Tejada (Twin Cities): Tejada came on as a junior in college after two lackluster seasons, and now looks like he could be at worst a valuable major league reserve. A switch-hitting infielder with contact issues but also some pop, Tejada has the defensive tools to play as many as seven positions in the field. Durable and inexpensive with good intangibles.

____________________________________________

26. IF Sam Corkum (Montreal): The Blazers draft a well-developed Canadian high school star who might not be a second baseman. Corkum had back-to-back excellent years in high school, and his skills are above most players his age. Scouts project him at first base, where he would be strong defensively with a balanced bat and good speed. Good intangibles will help.

____________________________________________


27. SP Jaak Lagerweij (Nashville): Scouts gave this guy more 7s than a Vegas jackpot, and that’s the sort of player that eventually has a shot at the majors. Lagerweij is an Aruban high school righty control specialist that should be able to throw four pitches for strikes, has excellent velocity for a teenager, and could improve with some natural velocity. He might also make a solid relief conversion if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

____________________________________________

28. SP/IF Hector Herrera (Mexico City): Herrera is a short, slender high school righty who might be an infielder and might be a starting pitcher. If Herrera can stick at second base, he has excellent contact and pop for a middle infielder. If he’s a starting pitcher, he’s currently a righty who hits 93 on the gun with four pitches he can throw for strikes. His thin build has not helped as he has a notable list of elbow and back issues, but scouts think he will grow into his body and be just fine. Poor intangibles won’t help.

____________________________________________

29. SP/RP SP/RP Duane Bishop (Rocky Mountain): Bishop is an autopick righty starter that might end up a reliever at the next level. The sidearmed Bishop had an excellent high school career, hits 98 on the gun, and is very advanced for his age. Bishop is very physically fit, but has stamina issues and his stuff is potentially just good, not dominant, so he might end up in the bullpen, where he might be very good if his velocity improves naturally.

____________________________________________

30. SP/RP Tariku Jabiri (Sacramento): South African Jabiri is drafted near the back of the first round again, just like last year when New Orleans failed to sign him. Reasonably well-developed for a twenty year old righty, Jabiri had solid numbers the past two years in college. A possible prime candidate for a reliever conversion, Jabiri throws six different pitches, none of them especially well, and hits 95 on the gun already. Good fitness and intangibles will help.

____________________________________________

31. OF Kevin Thistle (Des Moines): Canadian Thistle sounds like an invasive species, and it’s possible that opposing pitchers will feel the same way. Last year’s Bo Jackson runner-up doesn’t run, but he otherwise has all the tools; he’s a reasonable contact hitter from the right side of the plate, has some pop, and defensively has a decent throwing arm. Well developed for his age, Thistle should come on in a hurry unless gardeners get to him first.

____________________________________________


32. SP Yorikane Aoyama (Omaha): Just the ring of that one: Aoyama from Omaha makes me wanna ride a llama home to Mama and tell her about it, except that this was an autopick. How disappointing. The Japanese right-hander has three pitches he can throw for strikes and throws ground balls with good movement. He’s a classical end of the first round pitcher; the sort with promise but some warts. Durable with marginal stamina, he may ultimately end up in the bullpen.

____________________________________________

33. 1B Henry Arthur (Charm City): You’ve heard of Hammerin’ Hank. Now, meet Walkin’ Hank. The 19 year old first baseman already has an outstanding batting eye, but is in every other way subpar for a first baseman and didn’t hit especially well in college. However, if he can post .350 OBPs in the pros he has a good chance to stick in a lineup. Arthur also has poor intangibles.

____________________________________________

34. SP Tim Gingras (Mexico City): Gingras is a raw 17 year old righty starter who doesn’t throw that hard but can throw three pitches for strikes and has solid skills. A velocity increase would help. Seemingly unremarkable in every way but a very possible future rotation starter, one hopes that when he gets called up to the majors nobody accidentally calls him "Gringas" in Mexico City.

____________________________________________

35. CF Lorenz Spee (San Fernando): Spee, from the Netherlands, projects to be a rangy defensive player in the outfield who might also play a passable second base. The knock on Spee is that his mediocre right-handed bat might not play in the pros, but in the worst case scenario he should make a solid fifth outfielder, plus he can platoon in the infield. Plus, he hit okay in college and is close to fully developed, and has good intangibles. We’ll likely see him soon.

____________________________________________

36. 1B/DH Norberto Trujillo (San Antonio): Trujillo is not a second baseman at this point in his career, but if he grows into his eye he might be a first baseman. The righty hitter has the potential for good patience at the plate, doubles power and good speed, and he might be a plus defensive player at first base. Durable with decent intangibles, and hit very well as a junior in HS last year.

____________________________________________

37. OF Chester Lawrence (San Antonio): Lawrence is being drafted at the basically the same spot as last year, except this time it will probably stick. The Canadian lefty outfielder is not a slugger, but has the chance to get on base at a solid rate with decent speed and doubles power. Already well-developed and solid if unspectacular defensively, Lawrence should come on in a hurry.
____________________________________________

[BaseClogger]

Feel like I deserve a reputation of taking highly developed guys with low ceilings. It’s not a conscious bias. Maybe I can offset it with all the minor league free agent bonuses I hand out.

(Spee was San Fernando)

[aaronweiner]

Feel like I deserve a reputation of taking highly developed guys with low ceilings. It’s not a conscious bias. Maybe I can offset it with all the minor league free agent bonuses I hand out.

(Spee was San Fernando)

Fixed. Highly developed guys with low ceilings is very Moneyball BTW.

[Dington]

Good as always.

[JimSlade]

Great stuff - and good ro see that you also value intangibles. I sometimes worry that I focus too hard on putting together a Boy Scout troop.

[ae37jr]

Hoping Tejada can bump one more point of contact and/or eye vs RHP so he can be a strong side platoon 3B who can fill in at other positions if needed. I think his 5 contact and 6 eye are on the higher end, but too short of a sample to know for sure. So we'll see

[Jwalk100]

You nailed it with my pick. Great job as usual overall @aaronweiner!

[aaronweiner]

Great stuff - and good ro see that you also value intangibles. I sometimes worry that I focus too hard on putting together a Boy Scout troop.

I give out merit badges for good intangibles.

[aaronweiner]

Hoping Tejada can bump one more point of contact and/or eye vs RHP so he can be a strong side platoon 3B who can fill in at other positions if needed. I think his 5 contact and 6 eye are on the higher end, but too short of a sample to know for sure. So we'll see

I have more of a problem with the 5 contact/5 avoid Ks combo than I do just one or the other by themselves. I actually would happily take a 5/5/5/5/8 guy, though less impressive than a 8/5/5/5/5 guy.

[trmmilwwi]

Great feature, always well done. Thanks!!

[aaronweiner]

Great feature, always well done. Thanks!!

Still my favorite feature to do. I try to aim them for Sundays because it's good Sunday morning reading.

[Trebro]

Amazing work as always!

[RonCo]

I'm dreaming of Jabiri turning into a 125-150 IP stopper in a few years.

[recte44]

I thought Jahnke went too low, glad to see I wasn't the only one who liked him

[DaveB]

Thanks for the write up

[Lane]

primary reason for grabbing Clover was that he's right handed. feels like i'm always hurting for an outfielder that can hit lefties

[aaronweiner]

I thought Jahnke went too low, glad to see I wasn't the only one who liked him

He seems like a good pick. I actually like mine too - I hope he's a second baseman.

[aaronweiner]

primary reason for grabbing Clover was that he's right handed. feels like i'm always hurting for an outfielder that can hit lefties

Yeah, everyone needs someone like this. I drafted someone like that myself later in the draft.