Analysis of the 2034 MBWBA Amateur Draft's First Round

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The second part will look at what I think are the best and worst picks and the most interesting ones. There's a chance that I might NOT do the second part just due to time constraints or the fact that this draft has all the depth of a Britney Spears song. I’ve started including the S1 round.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. If concerned, rub a little dirt on it, it’ll be fine. Do not use as a coin wrapper as it only fits my two cents.

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First Round Analysis:


1. 3B Steven Collins III (Edmonton): At a minimum, we would expect Steven Collins, grandson of all-time great (and maybe GOAT) Steve Collins, to be a starting player of some sort in this league. At a maximum...well, Collins has no actual maximum. He has the ability to hit like his grandpappy (lifetime *.361* batting average) while playing solid defense either in the outfield or at a corner infield position. That’s pretty special. Probably won’t hit 500 homers or walk 100 times a year, but this guy has no limit.

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2. OF Ramon Pagan (Valencia): Pagan might not have the defensive chops for center field, but he should at the very least make a very nice corner outfielder. Big power bat with good contact skills, Pagan should be a consistent player from the right hand side of the plate. A little bit of a free-swinger, but should have low numbers of strikeouts.

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3. SP Jefferson Pierce (Nashville): Not sure whether Nashville’s new GM actually selected Pierce or whether he was chosen for him, but this one’s a great pick. Best similarity score is probably Rockville’s Arthur Dempster, but Pierce doesn’t have Dempster’s endurance (though Pierce’s training regimen is almost as rigorous). If Nashville is going to sign him, they’re also going to have to open the wallets, and I mean really open them up: we don’t usually make predictions on impossible level players but I can’t imagine that anything less than $10 million is going to sway Pierce from going to college. They should offer $15 million just in case, as fully developed Pierce would make current Nashville rotation head Guillermo Martinez look like a minor leaguer.

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4. 1B/DH Tommy Cochran (Huntsville): Cochran is potentially the best pure power bat in this draft, with a potentially outstanding power/contact combination. Cochran reminds us most Mario Deortez at the plate, which at this point in his career is damning with faint praise but could be a very positive comparison soon. 1B might be optimistic: Cochran’s best defensive position might be DH.

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5. OF Weaver Ripley (Phoenix): When this one was announced, Phoenix’s owner got immediately defensive. We get it: Ripley might not crack .280 in any full season as a hitter. Domenic Wyatt comes to mind, and Wyatt is probably Ripley’s ceiling: a good defensive outfielder with good speed and big power numbers who doesn’t hit for contact. It’s also worth noting that there are exactly four players in the BBA who play outfield that have Ripley’s power potential: Alfredo Martinez and Jose Estrada come to mind.

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6. CF/OF Gipper Kengos (Mexico City): In a draft with a lot of powerhitters, Mexico City grabs a contact/defense legacy player in Gipper Kengos, son of Tipper. Like Tipper, Gipper should be a high batting average player with good on-base potential, though he’s not a base stealer. Kengos should also play good enough defense for center field, making him one of the few players in the draft capable of doing so.

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7. OF Long Chamberlain III (Des Moines): Chamberlain is another legacy player, grandson of the man with one of the most legendary seasons in BBA history. His grandson doesn’t appear to be threatening his grandfather’s historic 1986 season, when the fastest-ever player to 500 homers hit 73 homers and 182 RBI with a .786 slugging percentage: all single-season records. No, this Chamberlain should be an awfully good player, with a plus switch-hitting bat and probably enough defense to play a corner outfield position, especially if they can improve his range.

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8. SP Emilio Paredes (Omaha): The consensus top pitcher in the draft with a signing bonus number (#3 overall Jefferson Pierce reports that it would be impossible to sign him), Paredes was also the first autopick of the draft. (Probably.) As regular readers of this column know, Paredes is a concern to me as he has a first-pitch changeup, but that’s the only demerit I can see: he throws hard for a 17 year old and has good endurance, and his movement is well-developed for his age, and he doesn’t appear to be fragile. Should be at worst a #2 starter if he gets his changeup.

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9. OF Manuel Aguilar, Jr. (Hawaii): The Hawaii Tropics have long been a team that drafted injury risks. Sometimes that works out and they get Jose Olivarez or Mike Bailey. Sometimes it doesn’t and they end up with Javier Trujillo. Aguilar himself is NOT an injury risk, but his father was one of the all-time BBA stories: Manuel Aguilar, Sr. is the single-season batting average and OPS record holder (.413 and 1.206 respectively), but tragically suffered a career-ending injury at the age of 26 in 2003. The younger version doesn’t look like the same kind of mega-star his father was, but he should be a solid lefty powerhitter with excellent intangibles. He might be a little inconsistent as his batting eye is just fair, but otherwise looks good. For now.

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10. OF Lorenzo Palacios (Rockville): Palacios is one of those types of players who you draft simply because you’re not sure who to draft. Vincent Vanderhugen and Jose Arellano have higher ceilings, but Palacios’ floor is a starting outfielder – because he’s already rated by scouts as a starting outfielder at the plate. Palacios should have a huge, favorable platoon factor and require some late-inning defensive work with big leads, but there’s a real chance that he’s a mega-star against righties at the plate, and that’s a solid pick.

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11. DH/1B Jose Zuniga (Brooklyn) Our first legitimate DH pick, the game loves Zuniga something fiercely. We’re not sure we get it. A ploddingly slow player, Zuniga projects as a very productive lefty DH who might need a platoon partner but probably won’t. He’ll probably never play a day in the outfield, as Zuniga projects as an awful outfielder. Mixed intangibles, and should be reasonably inexpensive compared to some other picks in the first round.

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12. DH/1B Mahdi Kojo (San Antonio): If you liked the lefty version of Jose Zuniga, you’ll like the righty version of Jose Zuniga less. A skilled hitter at the plate, Kojo is also slightly less skilled at first base (though has a stronger arm) and should hit less simply because he’s a righty. Good intangibles should be a plus.

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13. 1B/DH/OF Vincent Vanderhugen (Seattle): He’s not going to be the heir apparent to Jorge Rodriguez defensively, but Vanderhugen projects as a huge star at the plate. The son of BBA Hall of Famer Bolt Vanderhugen, Vincent is a switch-hitter who’s a potential superstar bat, with great intangibles and a great attitude. Will likely be barely playable in the outfield, but should be a passable first baseman and could be one of the league’s stars in a few years.

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14. SP Jose Arellano (Vancouver): It’s fairly shocking to see the #3 pitcher in the draft go this late, but it’s safe to say that Arellano is the consensus 3rd best pitching prospect in this draft. I think he could be the best. Better stamina than Pierce, better pitch selection than Paredes, Arellano might fall into the reliever trap but has a real chance to be a star. Doesn’t throw especially hard for a teenager, but a little velocity would go a long way for him. Good intangibles a plus.

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15. 2B/IF Keith Dean (Atlantic City): Dean didn’t spend a day in college, but despite not showing it, at age 20 he has a bunch of talent. Mediocre defensively, Dean’s calling card is his bat, which should enable him to play the pivot effectively. Good coaching might improve his defense too. He’d have an above average bat for a middle infielder, but just average for a 1B or DH, so Dean’s worth to his team will equate to his ability to play second base.

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16. SP Lorenzo de Medici (Twin Cities): We wouldn’t bet on Medici being Michelangelo on the mound, but his curveball has the potential to paint the corners of the Sistene Chapel. A likely reliever, Medici might be able to grind out some starts if he can develop a third pitch after his strong fastball and his wicked curve. Already a hard thrower at 17, Medici will need a lot of seasoning but could be as epic in the late innings as a Botticelli masterpiece. Mediocre control a minus, and ironically a poor leader.

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17. OF Brett White (Havana): Of the multitudes of outfielders picked in the middle of the first round, White is the most likely to have a career playing out there. White’s not a prize in the outfield, but he’s passable now and with some seasoning he should be pretty good. The tradeoff is that White has neither the contact nor eye rating of either Vanderhugen or Palacios, but he’s less likely to give away runs with his glove. Big platoon factor probably a plus.

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18. 1B/DH/OF Eduardo Garcia (New Orleans): Let the descent begin – or maybe it just seems like Garcia is the first prospect in this draft who’s not a 30 home run hitter. He should still be very solid as a righty DH/1B type, with good contact ability, good power, speedy and good on the bases, basically an all-around solid ballplayer who can’t play defense. Very good intangibles a plus.

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19. 1B/DH/OF Werner McConnell, Jr. (Calgary): Most people remember Manuel Aguilar because he set all kinds of records in the same year he suffered his tragic preseason injury. Not so many remembered Werner McConnell, former Phoenix great who had three spectacular seasons in 2001-2003 before being forced to hang up the spikes due to a gruesomely torn labrum. His son is nowhere near the ballplayer his daddy was, but maybe he won’t break quite as easily. Junior won’t be the most consistent player at the plate, and he’ll strike out quite often, but he has a big power bat from the left hand side of the plate. Maybe we’ll see him playing into his 30s.

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20. SP Sergei Hopkins (Jacksonville): One of the last players in this draft with top starter potential, Hopkins will be a pretty good pitcher – and stop me if you’ve heard this one before – if he gets his changeup. He’ll also look a little bit better with a velocity increase: Hopkins hits just 89 on the radar gun right now, which isn’t admittedly bad for a teenage lefty. If he does improve his velocity, Hopkins should be a productive starter even if he doesn’t get his changeup, which is a nice plus. He also has the ability to make Stu rabid, which is its own reward.

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21. 3B Michael Best (Charm City): Best isn’t that far off former Rockville #3 overall pick Larry Blake, which is a case in point why you might not necessarily want a top five pick in a draft like this one. The third base prospect has rock solid potentials for a third baseman, though his value to his team will be his ability to play the hot corner, which seems adequate. Solid intangibles shouldn’t hurt.

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22. DH/1B Jose Serrano (Madison): Serrano is yet another righty DH in this first round with a ton of power. His contact abilities are also lower than most of the other players in the first round, and his batting eye is just fair, limiting his ceiling. He should be a consistent power threat from the right hand side of the plate, however. Good intangibles will help.

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23. SP Gus Garza (California): Big swing for the Crusaders here, because if Garza doesn’t get his changeup then he doesn’t have much else to fall back on. Soft-tossing lefty, Garza looks the part of a rotation starter but only if he gets his changeup, and in spades, because it’s his lead pitch. Good intangibles, good stamina, good job holding runners, but it’s going to come down to the changeup.

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24. 1B/DH/OF Alonso Olvere (Montreal): It’s usually not easy to get players with these kinds of ratings in the draft, and even harder to just sort of pass it off as normal. Olvere might be really good, incidentally. His platoon ratings are better against righties (as you’d expect from a lefty), but his ratings match his lefty splits, meaning he might have some bump to him. Mixed intangibles, could be fairly decent at first base.

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25. IF Sloan Daniel (Long Beach): The Surfers take the guy who finished second in the Bo Jordan last year, and a middle infielder to boot. Probably. Daniel’s defense is at this point just adequate, though they’d probably trade off a little bit to get his bat into the lineup. He doesn’t really have the power you’d want from a DH or first baseman, and so they’ll need to hope he can play a solid pivot. Decent intangibles should be a plus, though his speed might be a minus if they let him steal bases.

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26. SS Joey O’Brien (Louisville): O’Brien appeared to be the best two-way shortstop in the draft, so Louisville drafted need over production. While O’Brien should play a solid shortstop and be consistent at the plate, he’s a slap hitter who doesn’t have a good batting eye, isn’t amazing defensively, just good, so O’Brien isn’t likely to be a superstar unless he finds another gear. However, he could be a ten-year regular.

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27. C Diesel Dave (Las Vegas): An autopick, but I probably like this one more than I should. It’s not like Diesel Dave is going to be a career .300 hitter, but if he can hit .240 he can be valuable because of sheer, raw power. Decent defensively, Dave has excellent intangibles and hits lefty. Even while he’s going to strike out two out of every five times at bat and nearly never draw a walk, Dave should do some damage.

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28. DH George Robertson (Yellow Springs): Robertson is an advanced college outfielder who appears to have a huge platoon from the left hand side of the plate but nearly zero defensive skills. As a platoon DH, Robertson’s main value to the team will be his ability to hit righties, which he should do at a productive rate. Good intangibles, well-developed batting eye, Robertson should be a solid pro.

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29. SS Jake Williams (Omaha): Williams should be able to play seven positions on the diamond effectively with good power, but my guess is they’ll leave him at shortstop, where he should have above-average defensive numbers. Good pop for a middle infielder. Poor batting eye and fair contact will hold him back somewhat, but at shortstop who fields his position well, hits 20 homers and can supersub seems valuable to me. Good intangibles, no intangible minuses.

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30. 3B Ross Quicker (Madison): Quicker has a huge arm and a nice assortment of plate skills for a third baseman. Quicker should hit for a reasonable average with doubles and homers power, and while his batting eye is just fair he shouldn’t strike out very often. Quicker might not be consistent defensively, but he should be reasonably effective due to his rocket arm. Good skills on the basepaths.

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31. SP Julio Machado (Long Beach): Seems like forever since we picked a pitcher, right? Machado projects to top out as a #2 starter, but that would be fantastic. He might throw as many as four pitches for consistent strikes and has good movement. Increased velocity would be a big plus. Excellent stamina and groundball skills means that he should be a consistent rotation member for a long time if he develops. Good intangibles.

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32. C Conner Hamiton (Montreal): Hamilton isn’t going to draw more than 10 walks a year or hit more than 15 doubles, but he does two things well: he puts the bat on the baseball fairly consistently and drives it over the left field fence with some regularity. A big arm behind the plate, Hamilton is never going to be a star because his on base percentage is likely to never go above .320 (and that only if he hits .310) but he should be a productive player at a tough position to fill. His name will be constantly misspelled.

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33. SS/IF Pablo Delvalle (Mexico City): Devalle probably doesn’t have the tools to play shortstop in the bigs, but he ought to make a fine third baseman if they move him over there. A good contact/power bat with doubles power from the right hand side of the plate, Delvalle has just fair plate discipline but should hit enough in the majors to be a productive pro. Terrible intangibles might hurt, but he should be at the very least a supersub if not a solid regular.

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34. P Scotts Joe (Vancouver): Finally, a pitcher whose changeup doesn’t have to develop! However, the assessment of Scarborough: fair. He has poor control and only a decent fastball despite it being 95-97. If Joe can push his velocity a lot higher he could be really good, but color me a little skeptical that it happens. Poor endurance for a potential starting pitcher. Fantastic intangibles will help.

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[bschr682]

No mention on who Scotts Joe was named after?!

[Lane]

You should know by now that I don't let ANYONE run. Haha

[Lane]

Great feature, as always btw. Plus it's my actual reminder to get back to my retrospective features.

[7teen]

No mention on who Scotts Joe was named after?!

One of my creations!!

Was honestly hoping Scotts Joe would turn out more like Jason Egan. Haha

[bschr682]

No mention on who Scotts Joe was named after?!

One of my creations!!

Was honestly hoping Scotts Joe would turn out more like Jason Egan. Haha

well he has 9 movement right now and is young. who knows...

[udlb58]

I thought you'd kill me on Hopkins. Teenage pitcher, all of his stuff is derived from a completely undeveloped changuep, no outstanding intangible trait. Every time I pull him up, my first thought is, "Why the hell did you draft this guy who'll never develop his changeup?" Of course, then I think, "if....IF that changeup develops and IF he gains a little velo, he's a top #2 pitcher."

Of course, 2 years from now he'll look like all of my other 1st round pitchers. Maybe he can get a seat on the bus next to Birdbrain...

[RonCo]

Conner Hamiton should be Conner Hamilton. Just a typo on the creation process.

He's an amalgam of Sara Conner and Linda Hamilton. Hence the bazooka of an arm.

[aaronweiner]

No mention on who Scotts Joe was named after?!

Dude. It's in there. With a Simon and Garfunkel pun even.

[bschr682]

I must be missing something. What do Simon and Garfunkel have to do with our former Vancouver GM?

[aaronweiner]

It's Joe Scarborough, right? Or did I get his name wrong?

[Ted]

It's Joe Scarborough, right? Or did I get his name wrong?

You know, it never even occurred to me that "Scottsdale Joe" had any other names.

[RonCo]

I got it just fine.

[bschr682]

Its Geoghegan. He has a playoff round named after him...

[aaronweiner]

Shit. Joe Scarborough is the guy on MSNBC.

Can’t tell I’m distracted by work yet? You will.