(2058) – 2057 League-Wide GB/FB/LD – Balls in Zone Conversion Rates

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(2058) – 2057 League-Wide GB/FB/LD – Balls in Zone Conversion Rates

Post by RonCo » Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:55 pm

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Here’s a study that probably does have a little value if you really want to dig into the value of defense at various positions. I say that because one of the main reasons defensive value changed by position is simply the number of plays each defender can be expected to have to deal with in a season, and the rate of which those plays are converted to outs.

Are you a guy who says, “well, they may not have much range, but they convert everything hit to them into outs,” guys. Or vice versa? Well, I think these charts could let you do some mat and figure out just how much better Guy Type A needs to be than Guy Type B.

I haven’t really done that math. Unfortunately.

But you could.

If you wanted to, anyway.

Bottom line, what follows is a listing of all the ground balls, fly balls, and outfield line drives that were hit in 2057 games (to the best of my script’s ability to capture them…which should be pretty danged close). The following tables are then the percentage of those plays that were made into outs. I note that these tables make no differentiation between an error and a hit. All it’s looking at are outs made.



GROUND BALL – OUT CONVERSION RATE

BIZ3L33444M6M65655L
SHALLOW065424341139455531119429797650
MID1090194042167788157017449221548516721235
DEEP03563168887261925905139682410
EFF3L33444M6M65655L
SHALLOW81.50%80.44%76.56%56.04%58.00%76.47%85.16%80.13%
MID67.61%98.30%89.14%93.37%80.19%76.72%92.25%89.83%93.42%45.02%
DEEP9.27%18.09%30.55%12.07%12.28%34.11%19.42%19.92%

For example, here, 7,788 ground balls were hit into “mid-zone 4.” BBA second basemen turned 93.37% of those into outs. Similarly, 9,221 ground balls were hit into mid-zone 6” for shortstops to handle. They did so 92.25% of the time. Does that mean the average “error rating” for 2B is better than the average error rating of shorstops?

I’ll leave it for you to decide.

But if nothing else, we can note that shortstops dealt with almost 1,500 additional grounders in their direct zones than second basemen did. The number rises a little bit when you include adjacent zones, too. (Ever wonder why WAR calculations give boosts to various defenders based on their position played? There you go.)



FLY BALL – OUT CONVERSION RATE


BIZ9L9898R8L7877L
SHALLOW4901166158482377515521224496
MID546223322001646162821262277566
DEEP387158314952429228214741556319
EXTRA-DEEP007271783177768200

I find it interesting that we don’t see quite the difference between RF and LF zones with fly balls.

EFF9L9898R8L7877L
SHALLOW79.80%94.68%83.84%65.25%66.19%84.66%94.93%83.67%
MID95.60%98.84%98.41%99.03%99.14%98.59%99.43%96.47%
DEEP56.07%97.41%72.98%97.53%95.92%74.22%98.46%63.32%
EXTRA-DEEP26.41%56.98%57.51%31.67%


LINE DRIVE OUT CONVERSION RATE

BIZ9L9898R8L7877L
SHALLOW979180412231220125612131805887
MID81060012896075781280605755
DEEP242191738521496666142187
EXTRA-DEEP0037719917332200

Or with line drives.

I’m not sure what to make of that, but I’m making an assumption that the game probably has this right – that pull hitters pull a lot of grounders, but scatter fly balls and line drives. I think that’s right in real life, but I admit I’m not certain.

I’ll have to see if I can find what’s real there.

Feel free to link me below if you have something handy that defines that.

EFF9L9898R8L7877L
SHALLOW8.48%28.66%9.57%9.10%8.12%10.72%27.04%5.64%
MID22.96%99.50%57.56%98.52%98.44%54.45%99.01%19.34%
DEEP2.89%80.63%21.95%91.17%90.73%23.87%83.10%3.21%
EXTRA-DEEP0.00%2.51%3.47%0.31%
Regardless, I like scanning the conversion rate differences between fly balls and line drives. These are the kinds of things I wish OOTP were better about reporting in Big Data formats. Alas, at present it is what it is.

Anyway, those are the numbers for 2057. Have fun
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