2058 - Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

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2058 - Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

Post by RonCo » Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:30 pm

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So the 2057 Hall of Fame voting came to a close, and Dennis French is in. Not surprising. As I noted at one point, French was the real slam dunk of the ballot. I couldn’t see anyone leaving him off (though two voters did, I’m pretty sure at least one [ LBC ] was done with the idea he was in, and wanted to spread votes…not that that really matters here…or maybe it does. Are we actually limited to 10 votes? Dunno). Anyway, that’s big news for the highly deserving French. I’m sure the induction ceremony will be joyous.

At question, though, is what about the rest?

Chip Puckett, in his third season since retirement got 18 votes. With 29 GMs voting, that meant he needed 22 to get over the 75% hump. Obviously, he didn’t make it. Likewise, Danya Tchekanov mustered 16 votes of support in his 4th season since retiring, good for 55%. Not good enough.

Lorenzo de’Medici, the subject of no little controversy, garnered 37% in his first year on the ballot. Apparently not so much on the slam dunk

Sawyer Slizz and Pedro Diaz fell off the ballot on their first tries. And I think the ballot runs of Juan Karyabwite (44%), Hsin Mei (41%), Feliciano Rafael (24%), Mark Wareham (17%), and Pierre Legrande (13%) came to their ends.

There’s a not unreasonable chance that guys like Puckett and Tchekanov will make it in eventually. Not sure. Lorenzo de’Medici’s very low score makes me wonder.

At the end of the day, it seems to me like we’ve hit a bit of a nexus when it comes to the Big-Hall/Small-Hall debate, and the Small Guys are clearly winning.

This time around though, we get the public ballots out on StatsPlus, and we can see kind of what’s going on.


Who Voted?

First we see that a total of 29 ballots were cast, including one from the GBC (which I assume was Brandon as he took over RMO). Four teams, VAN, BOI, DM, and CHI, did not vote. I’m not sure that’s a major influence in the final tallies, but it’s an impact. With 29 votes, candidates need 22 “yes” nods. At 32 they need 24 “yeses.” (At 33, they need 25).

In that same vein, if everyone from the GBC voted, and we had a full 8-team compliment, a guy would need 30 “yes” to make it in. GBC GMs are eligible to vote, BTW. At least I think they are.


Looking At the Ballots – LARGE HALL

Here’s something interesting. Of the 29 ballots, only four (SFB, JAX, LBC, RCK) carried a full slate of ten players. One (CCJ) included nine players. No one included exactly eight players/ We will call these the “Large Hall” Segment.

If we had only them as voters, French would have been joined by Puckett, Tchekanov, Mei, James Monger! (who only got 34% of the vote, but who got 100% of the Large Hall segment), Feliciano Rafael, and Francisco Flores (who got only 13% of the whole vote). In other words, the Large Hallers would have inducted six players.

Interesting, right?


Looking At the Ballots – MID-SIZED HALL

Four teams voted for seven players. Three voted for six. Four voted for five. Three voted for four. That’s fourteen ballots that included between four and seven players. We’ll call these the MID-SIZE Segment. It includes YS9, SA, HAW, CLG, CAI2, NO, BIK, OMA, RMO, PHX, TWC, NSH, CHA, and SAC.

If we group these fourteen ballots with those of the LARGE-HALL segment, we get 19 ballots, of which a candidate would need 15 to make it in. This would have resulted in French (18 votes), Puckett (16 votes), and Tchekanov (16 votes) being on the podium on induction day. So three inductees.

Alas for them, that did not happen.


Looking At the Ballots – SMALL-SIZED HALL

This leaves ten ballots. Of those ten, two of them included three names on the list. Five voted for only two players, and three voted for only 1 (French each time). We will call these the SMALL-HALL Segment. It was made up of: ATC, POR, BRK, LV, MTL, EDM, VAL, LOU, MEX, and MAD.

The scattering of these votes is interesting of itself. Other than French, for example, the next top vote getter from the Small Hall Segment was Lorenzo de’Medici, with three “yesses.” Puckett, Karyabwite, and Mei picked up only one vote apiece from this contingent. As did Cristian Garcia and Ramon Pagan, for that matter.

But what is more interesting to me about this collection is its raw size. There were ten, right? Ten ballots.

Going back to the “who votes” portion of this article, we see that (if this block is “true”) with a full contingent of GBC voters, ten “nos” is not quite enough to guarantee control, but a guy would have to be unanimously on the ballots of every other voter to override the Small-Hall segment’s veto. In other words, the current population of GMs is effectively a Small Hall gerrymander. Essentially, assuming again that this is a true block, the rest of the league doesn’t really need to bother to vote.

Note – I’m not advocating that. I’m just stating the math.

At the end of the day, for this year specifically, the Small Hall Segment said Dennis French, and only Dennis Frech, was in.


Is This Real?

I’m guessing that what I’m calling the Small-Hall Segment is not a true voting block. Some are, I’m sure. But I’m guessing that at least as many are either pressed for time, or fed up, or just not steeped in the system, so they vote “no” because it’s easier to let the rest of the league carry the vote.

The problem, of course, is that the size of the blocks makes that a self-limiting mathematic.

Because another way to say that a guy needed 22 votes to make it in is to say the Small-Hall segment (whatever true size that is) needed 8 votes to keep him out. So every “no” vote comprised 12.5% of the needed support for the anti-game.

And to be fair, while I’m firmly in that middle-group, I’m not saying the Small-Hall is a bad thing. I’ve always said the Hall of Fame should be as big or as small as the league itself wants it to be. But I would say this: If you are in that Small-Hall segment, and you don’t really believe the Hall of Fame should be exclusively the home of those upper tiers of the pantheon, you might consider changing the way you think about that ballot.
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Re: Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

Post by Lane » Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:44 pm

Really cool, thank you.

Yes i do believe we are limited to 10 votes in stats plus.

Anyway I'm still 100% big hall for voting purposes. Ideologically I'm probably more of a medium hall guy but the nature of the voting system requires over-voting the lower candidates and under-voting the top candidates.
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Re: 2058 - Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

Post by recte44 » Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:02 pm

Small-ISH for me. Gotta really be elite. Not just really good.

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Re: 2058 - Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

Post by lordtoffee » Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:23 pm

One thing that I think is a factor is that there are going to be GMs who haven't been in the league for enough time to see the full arc of some of these careers, and might feel comfortable voting in players who they have a more complete picture of. Not saying that's a factor, but something to consider.
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Re: 2058 - Hall of Fame – Are We In a Small-Hall Nirvana?

Post by RonCo » Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:21 pm

lordtoffee wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:23 pm
One thing that I think is a factor is that there are going to be GMs who haven't been in the league for enough time to see the full arc of some of these careers, and might feel comfortable voting in players who they have a more complete picture of. Not saying that's a factor, but something to consider.
Right. That fits into some of my comments above. The field of voters in online leagues is quit a bit different from the BBWA folks who vote in real life. I'm sure that depresses the Hall vote.
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