All right, then. We’ve all had time to digest the moment. We know the score. Only two of a very large class got into the Hall of Fame. The aftermath has been a bit wild, with Big Hall people complaining, and Small Hall people saying the problem was all the vote splitting.
It’s a mess, I tell ya.
And I get it. I’m a Bigger Hall person at heart, but I like the tension between the two. There’s value in the conflict. But in this case, I’m wondering … well … which is true. Luckily, with StatsPlus, we can see the ballots cast. So I spent a bit of time breaking the data down—some of which I will present here.
First, though, for all those TLDR readers, I’ll give you the answer.
The people at fault for only two players getting in are….drum roll, please…all of the above, and one more.
I split out the data here for only those players who received at least 50% of the vote. These are Aaron Haney, Larry Stinson, Carlos Flores, Jeffrey Smith, Eduardo Gonzalez, and Felipe Vega. I broke out the votes by Big Hall Voters (ballots with all ten names) and Small Hall Voters (ballots with less than ten names). The split was interesting, and when you apply a little math to those splits you’ll find that the message is also split. Some players are not in because of vote splitting (Big Hall voters saving votes for a few of their favorites to keep them on the ballot), and some are not in because the Small Hall people were just too many to over come anyway.
Don’t you love an argument where everyone is right?
Which were which?
Well…let’s see.
AARON HANEY
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Aaron Haney): 19
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Aaron Haney): 15
If only the ballots that carried ten players were counted (Big Hall Voters), Haney would have made the Hall. Of the fifteen ballots that were cast that carried fewer than 10 names (Small Hall Voters), every ballot included Aaron Haney.
In other words, the Big Hall voters split their tickets, but the Small Hall folks were unanimous. Either way, Haney is a Hall of Famer.
LARRY STINSON
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Larry Stinson): 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Larry Stinson): 14
If only the ballots that carried ten players were counted (Big Hall Voters), Larry Stinson would not have made the Hall. Of the ballots cast with fewer than ten players listed (Small Hall Voters) only one did not include Larry Stinson.
Stinson made it into the Hall with 78.4% of the vote, but it was close.
In other words, the big Hall Voters split the ticket just enough that Stinson was still carried in by the Small Hall voters.
CARLOS FLORES
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Carlos Flores): 17
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Carlos Flores): 10
If only the ballots that carried ten players (Big Hall Voters) were counted, Flores at 77% would have made the Hall. Note that one human GM cast two of these ballots--neither included Flores, so on the one-guy one-one vote plan, Flores received 81% of the vote. If only the ballots cast with fewer than ten players listed (Small Hall Voters) were counted, Flores would not have made the Hall.
He missed by one vote.
In other words, if either the Big Hall Voters had split slightly less, or a single Small Hall Voter had deemed him worthy, or one human had not had two votes, Carlos Flores would be in the Hall. As it is, he waits until next year.
It's fair to say that the Big Hall Voters shot Flores' candidacy down by moving votes down ballot. But it's also fair to say that the double vote from one human left Flores cold. And it's also fair to say that the crumudgeonly Small Hall Voters played it too close to the vest.
Flores's Resume:
- 4-Time Nebraska winner (two-time runner up, one-time third place)
- 9-Time All-Star.
- He registered 74.9 WAR.
- JAWS 56.0 (vs. 69)
- Black Ink 48 (vs. 33)
- Gray Ink 199 (vs. 166)
- Hof Standard 48 (vs. 50)
- Hof Monitor 181 (vs. 132)
JEFFREY SMITH
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Jeffrey Smith): 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Jeffrey Smith): 7
If only the ballots that carried ten players were counted (Big HAll Voters), Smith (68%) would not have made the Hall. Note that one human GM cast two of these ballots--neither included Smith. Removing that one would mean 71% of the Big Hall Voters would have cast their vote for him. Still not enough.
Only seven ballots of the fifteen with fewer than 10 players listed included Jeffrey Smith (47%)
Smith missed by 6 votes, so he would have needed almost every Big Hall Vote to get in. So arguably, the Big Hall Voters, if they had voted in a single block, would have been enough to sway the decision. Barely.
Smith's Resume:
- 3-Time Puckett Winner
- 8-Time All-Star
- 2-Time playoff MVP
- 1-Time World Champion
- JAWS 60.2.0 (vs. 56)
- Black Ink 19 (vs. 22)
- Gray Ink 195 (vs. 117)
- Hof Standard 67 (vs. 56)
- Hof Monitor 210 (vs. 155)
- 638 HR, 2,242 RBI, 80.8 WAR
EDUARDO GONZALEZ
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Eduardo Gonzalez): 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Eduardo Gonzalez): 4
If only the ballots that carried ten players were counted (Big Hall Voters), Gonzalez(68%) would not have made the Hall. Note that one human GM cast two of these ballots--neither included Smith. Removing that one would mean 71% of the Big Hall Voters would have cast their vote for him. Still not enough.
The Small Hall Voters, however, REALLY did not turn out for Gonzalez, as only 4 of 15 (27%) included his name.
Gonzalez missed by 9 votes.
This means that Big Hall Voters could not have mustered enough support for him to make a difference without some Small Hall defections.
Gonzalez's Resume:
- 2-Time Puckett Winner
- 6-Time All-Star
- JAWS 61.9.0 (vs. 61)
- Black Ink 2 (vs. 22)
- Gray Ink 50 (vs. 117)
- Hof Standard 66 (vs. 56)
- Hof Monitor 141 (vs. 155)
- 554 HR, 1,946 RBI, 83.2 WAR
FILIPE VEGA
- Ballots with 10 Players Included: 22
- Ballots with 10 Players Included (w/Filipe Vega): 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included: 15
- Ballots with < 10 Players Included (w/Filipe Vega): 4
Eleven ballots had fewer than 10 players listed, and did not included Felipe Vega
If only the ballots that carried ten players were counted (Big Hall Voters), Gonzalez(68%) would not have made the Hall. Note that one human GM cast two of these ballots--neither included Smith. Removing that one would mean 71% of the Big Hall Voters would have cast their vote for him. Still not enough.
Like Gonzalez before him, the Small Hall Voters, did not think much of Vega's credentials as only 4 of 15 (27%) included his name. This is even more interesting in that NO ONE with less than 9 players listed on their ballot included Vega at all.
Vega missed by 9 votes
So, also like Gonzalez, Big Hall Voters could not have mustered enough support for him to make a difference without some Small Hall defections.
Vega's Resume:
- 6-Time Puckett Winner
- 1-Time Zimmer
- 8-Time All-Star
- 4-Time Playoff MVP
- JAWS 60.3 (vs. 54)
- Black Ink 0 (vs. 22)
- Gray Ink 127 (vs. 117)
- Hof Standard 66 (vs. 56)
- Hof Monitor 160 (vs. 155)
- 669 HR, 1,929 RBI, 79.4 WAR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
So, yes. Both sides can blame the other for Carlos Flores, Jeffrey Smith and Eduardo Gonzalez's failed candidacies. If you're a Big Hall Voter you can point to the Small Hall guys for shutting out Gonzalez and Vega. There are also odd personal choices. At least they were odd to me. But then, I would think that, wouldn't I?
There were other guys in the mix, too, obviously. Specifically Lorenzo de' Medici, Tom Rudge, and Tony Frost all received 45% of the vote, but even in the Big Hall camp they were only 50%ish. So they're not in this conversation right now.
Maybe next year, right?