Analysis of the First Round of the 2016 Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The second part will look at what I think are the best and worst picks and the most interesting ones. It will be coming soon, since the second article promises to be a doozy this year with the depth of this draft. To do the second one, not only do I have to document it, but ALSO make decisions, weigh options, figure out stuff...it could take until NEXT Sunday to get it right.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. For entertainment purposes only. Do not use as a fire extinguisher. If there's any swelling, bruising or tearing after reading this article, for God's sake, stop hitting yourself!

[hr]

First Round Analysis:


1. CF Benjamin Franklin Pierce (YS9): The consensus #1, Pierce is phenomenal defensively, fast and talented on the basepaths, excellent potential at the plate. Might be held back by poor work ethic and low intelligence, apparently ratings applied to him by Frank Burns. Most likely to pull clubhouse pranks and distill moonshine from engine cleaner. Would never disgrace the uniform (provided it’s a T-shirt, a pair of green boxer shorts and a bathrobe). Should be cheap to sign compared to other players, demanding only a slot bonus.

[hr]

2. SP Manuel Diaz (Vancouver): Diaz has #1 starter potential with reasonable development levels for an 18 year old. No true out pitch but uses several pitches well and throws hard for a teenager. Solid makeup, good intangibles, good endurance, solid defensively. A fairly safe choice and a good candidate for a reliever conversion should his secondary pitches not develop well.

[hr]

3. SP John Rogers (Carolina): Rogers has #1 starter potential with very solid developmental levels for a player who doesn’t turn 17 until the end of July. In a draft where Carolina took basically every lefthanded pitcher that wasn’t nailed down, Rogers has the best potential of maybe any lefty in the draft. Could use a confidence boost but rest of his makeup is solid and there’s really nothing wrong with him at all that some good coaching won’t solve. Delivery is good and Rogers is considered to be durable.

[hr]

4. CF Leon Sandcastle (Marquette): For my money, the best pure hitter in the draft. Sandcastle could join Marquette in the major leagues right now, though he probably shouldn’t. Regardless, will probably demand a major league salary. Nearly as good defensively as Pierce and younger. Better intangibles than Pierce. Can play LF and RF, though neither particularly well. Most likely to reveal that he’s actually Morris Pennebaker.

[hr]

5. SP Martin Lewis (Long Beach): Lewis is a bit of an interesting case. He might be the best pitcher in the draft, but he’s not well developed for a 21 year old starting pitcher. However, he’s a fireballer with fantastic potential stuff, and he’s the sort of player who might come on in his mid-twenties. Long Beach has a long rebuilding program ahead of them so they can wait. Decent makeup, could use a lot of refinement.

[hr]

6. 2B Trip Tucker (Des Moines): Des Moines was overwhelmingly likely to be the team that took Tucker, and, yea, verily it came to pass. Fantastic defensive player, basically ready to take the field almost immediately, great speed, Tucker might not ever be more than average at the plate but that’s probably fine for a middle infielder. Great bunter. Basically, a guy who embodies the prime element of Des Moines’ draft strategy. Link: Team hoping that he doesn’t get pregnant.

[hr]

7. SP Julio Ortiz (Halifax): Ortiz is the sort of player that makes you go “hmmm.” Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good pick. He’s maybe the best lefty pitcher in the draft, by potential. At the same time, he’s way underdeveloped for an old 18. Ortiz has fantastic stamina and a great delivery but really doesn’t have any idea what to do with his stuff at this point. Velocity just improved and fine for a teenager but he might never throw particularly hard.

[hr]

8. SP Alejandro Ramos (Baltimore): Picked by the former owner of Baltimore, Ramos would have been the other guy we’d have guessed for Des Moines. Basically ready to contribute immediately, Ramos doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some players in the draft but should be very good and could be promoted to the majors immediately. Caveat emptor: Ramos was considered “impossible” to sign by my team (Carolina) and might for all I know not sign with Baltimore. Baltimore will either have a young player ready to contribute or the #9 pick in next year’s draft.

[hr]

9. LF Daniel Labrie, Jr. (Las Vegas): Shockingly, Labrie, Jr., despite a tremendous pedigree and an overwhelming amount of development, lasted until pick #9. Has serious makeup issues against lefties but his immediate impact against righties should be so significant it won’t matter. Strong defensively, okay intangibles, admittedly expensive, Labrie fits a tremendous need for Las Vegas’ organization and he should be a good one.

[hr]

10. SP Jose Olivarez (Hawaii): Olivarez has overwhelmingly solid potential, but he’s way underdeveloped for an 19 year old and, oh yeah, just tore his labrum and will be out for the rest of 2016. We might see him in the Winter League. Could end up a reliever depending on his developmental curve. This pick has bust written all over it, but if he overcomes all of his obstacles he might be a legitimate #1 starter. We shall see.

[hr]

11. SP Jorge Jiminez (Calgary): Jiminez is a power pitcher who doesn’t bother with runners and doesn’t pitch well from the stretch, but who looks just fine to me. Not that developed for 20 and a half, like Martin Lewis, but his lower ceiling makes him look a little better in that department. Best groundball pitcher picked to this point. Mixed intangibles. A very reasonable pick.

[hr]

12. CF Ralph Bartlett (Greenville): A little nervous about this pick, though Greenville has their eyes on the short term and Bartlett is a need pick in that regard, as they’re currently playing Nathan Claycomb out of position in CF. Expensive for his hitting ability, level, Bartlett will probably want a major league contract and a large bonus. Has a fairly low ceiling at the plate but should be average there with outstanding outfield defense.

[hr]

13. C Paul Scholes (Louisville): What’s Louisville’s obsession with catching? At any rate, lots of people liked this pick better than I did. Don’t get me wrong. Scholes has fantastic intangibles and is potentially a once-in-a-generation defensive catcher with fairly solid hitting skills. He’s young enough that he could turn into one of the league’s best players for a decade if his bat develops more than he’s projected to hit. Even if he stays at this level he ought to hit reasonably well for a catcher and is considered to be a durable player. Anyone would surely take him; I just considered this a bit of a reach pick. But if Louisville wanted to make sure they got him – well, they did. Should be very capable in cleats, and might be a cheap draftee to boot.

[hr]

14. C Joseph Stewart (Omaha): See, if it’s me, I take THIS guy over Scholes. But I could be wrong, too. Stewart is a switch-hitting catcher with excellent power potential who might have dropped in the draft because of his price tag. Huge arm behind the plate, solid defensive ability, also very good intangibles, Stewart ought to be pretty darn good. Excellent at handling disputes and reportedly the guy to see if you want a little something extra in your cornflakes.

[hr]

15. SP John Woods (Madison): Solid lefty with great intangibles and outstanding potential – what’s not to like? Very good defensively, developed fine for his age, Woods has a really long way to go to get to the majors but could end up the best lefty pitcher in a draft that’s deep on lefthanded pitching. Great delivery, very good intangibles, a solid all-around pick.

[hr]

16. SP Jon Chandler (Buffalo): Chandler is way underdeveloped for an 18 year old, but he has all kinds of positives working in his favor. Great makeup for a young pitcher, Chandler could be a #1 starter if he meets his lofty potential. Solid velocity for a teenager. Expensive for this draft, but won’t want a major league contract. Like a lot of pitchers in this draft, has a long way to go to get to the majors, but could be a really good one if he makes it.

[hr]

17. SP Luis Perez (Birmingham): Perez has exactly the same problem as the rest of the pitchers in this draft: he’s way underdeveloped for his age, though at 19 he’s older than some of the pitchers we’ve mentioned. Throws very hard for a teenager. Yet another guy who could be a #1 starter if he develops completely.

[hr]

18. 3B Manuel Garcia (Atlantic City): I love this pick. Garcia has outstanding intangibles and is one of the headiest players in the draft, with a leadoff hitter’s mentality at a difficult position to get a really good player. Should be cheap to sign despite high greed. Won’t ever hit for any kind of power, but could post regular OBPs in the neighborhood of the .400 mark. Very solid defensively and it might be interesting to see if he could play shortstop. Seems kind of impossible that he went almost 100 picks ahead of Hunter Eisenhower.

[hr]

19. SP Jose Leon (Valencia): For my money, a little more developed than many of the other pitchers in this draft, merely because some of his potentials aren’t that high. Excellent intangibles, good makeup. If he achieves his full potential might be a #2 or 1A starter, though he could be one of the league’s premier strikeout pitchers. Throws hard, though not exceedingly so. Good comparison is Josh Benez, though Leon might be better than Benez eventually.

[hr]

20. RF Bartholomew Bailey (California): Bailey is an interesting sort of player, but exactly the sort that California has favored in recent years. Should never get on base at a high clip but should post decent power/average numbers and is very strong defensively. Unimpressive intangibles, but reasonably well developed for 21 years old. Very fast but clueless on the basepaths. Draft is starting to return to some sense of normality (though the depth of the draft belies this comment).

[hr]

21. SP Christian Brown (Montreal): Probably the hardest thrower and one of the most developed players in the first round, Brown is has the potential to be a really solid #2 starter. Might give up a few too many homers but should be a solid strikeouts guy. Very solid intangibles. Should be relatively cheap to sign. Highly developed stuff a rarity in this draft. Could be a steal.

[hr]

22. 3B Raul Guerrero (Chicago): Guerrero is a very heady player who’s also a fantastic tools pick. He might turn into a very good starting 3B. He’s relatively raw in every way, but not overwhelmingly so for 18 years old. Really great athlete, very fast, fantastic on the basepaths, could be an all-around solid player.

[hr]

23. P Flint Colbert (New Orleans): Not sure I get this pick at all, though it’s hardly a bad choice. Colbert is a very raw pitcher who I’m thinking that New Orleans dreams of being a starter. Maybe expensive for a late first rounder. Don’t get me wrong: Colbert should be a lockdown reliever if he develops completely, though I fail to see how his stuff translates into being overwhelming, if very good. Wouldn’t have gotten him in Round 2, though.

[hr]

24. SP Luis Espinoza (New Orleans): This one I get. Espinoza has pretty good intangibles, was one of the better lefties in the draft and is very well developed for a young 17 years old. Doesn’t project to have a legitimate out pitch, velocity just mediocre, but a solid lefty with fine potential. This is the sort of guy you dream of getting at the bottom of the first round.

[hr]

25. CF Ralph Benson (Seattle): Benson is just a BALLPLAYER. He reminds us a lot of last year’s #3 overall, William Kidd, except he might end up being better than Kidd. Very heady, very fast, should be able to play center field but has ability in all three outfield positions and might end up a left fielder. Should be a fantastic leadoff hitter for Seattle when he’s ready to carry the mantle of Tipper Kengos.

[hr]

[Cole]

8. SP Alejandro Ramos (Baltimore): Picked by the former owner of Baltimore, Ramos would have been the other guy we’d have guessed for Des Moines. Basically ready to contribute immediately, Ramos doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some players in the draft but should be very good and could be promoted to the majors immediately. Caveat emptor: Ramos was considered “impossible” to sign by my team (Carolina) and might for all I know not sign with Baltimore. (It’s my suspicion, though I have no idea, that this might have hastened Baltimore’s speedy exit). Baltimore will either have a young player ready to contribute or the #9 pick in next year’s draft.

Great article. Should be interesting to have Ramos in the mix and see what he does. I will probably give him a few starts at AAA first.

Also, just to clarify, the only thing that hastened the previous Baltimore's owner departure was him getting outed as a confirmed cheater/colluder/multiple team owner in other leagues. This was brought to Recte's attention and Dale Stevens (whose real name is Charlie Cooper) was removed from his post. The guy at one time used different aliases to be the GM of five different teams in PEBA.

Anyway, back to MBWBA draft talk!

[aaronweiner]

Also, just to clarify, the only thing that hastened the previous Baltimore's owner departure was him getting outed as a confirmed cheater/colluder/multiple team owner in other leagues. This was brought to Recte's attention and Dale Stevens (whose real name is Charlie Cooper) was removed from his post. The guy at one time used different aliases to be the GM of five different teams in PEBA.

Oh. Fixed.

[aaronweiner]

8. SP Alejandro Ramos (Baltimore): Picked by the former owner of Baltimore, Ramos would have been the other guy we’d have guessed for Des Moines. Basically ready to contribute immediately, Ramos doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some players in the draft but should be very good and could be promoted to the majors immediately. Caveat emptor: Ramos was considered “impossible” to sign by my team (Carolina) and might for all I know not sign with Baltimore. (It’s my suspicion, though I have no idea, that this might have hastened Baltimore’s speedy exit). Baltimore will either have a young player ready to contribute or the #9 pick in next year’s draft.

Great article. Should be interesting to have Ramos in the mix and see what he does. I will probably give him a few starts at AAA first.

Anyway, back to MBWBA draft talk!

I would have also. No reason he HAS to pitch in the majors right away. Assuming you can sign him.

[felipe]

wow! He controlled FIVE different teams!!?? I only have three in the MBWBA! Try to guess which ones...


Love the article as always Aaron

[JimBob2232]

Good Perspective. Thanks.

Its always interesting to get the takes of other GMs. I think you are putting too much reliance on under-developed 18-20 year olds who still have 5-7 years before they are really expected to compete in the MBBA. But that's just my take, and if we all had the same opinions on this kind of stuff then this league would be pretty boring.

Thanks again!

[aaronweiner]

Good Perspective. Thanks.

Its always interesting to get the takes of other GMs. I think you are putting too much reliance on under-developed 18-20 year olds who still have 5-7 years before they are really expected to compete in the MBBA. But that's just my take, and if we all had the same opinions on this kind of stuff then this league would be pretty boring.

Thanks again!

You mean, teenagers like both of your first round picks? I don't quite understand the comment, but since nobody's questioning your ability to build a farm I'm sure you meant something.

[crobillard]

Ortiz maybe wasn't the best pitcher available at the time and he may fizzle out, but I drafted the next two pitchers in the draft for that very reason (article to come on this).

Draft experts will probably say I should have drafted Labrie at number 7, but my pitching in the minors is not good and this draft made me nervous for the pitching talent in future drafts, so I couldn't delay drafting Ortiz and company.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[bschr682]

I think you hit on something I found worrying. That was all the underdeveloped youngsters. With a draft this deep, the bust potential is gonna be really high. The highest candidates for bust potential? fragile guys. second highest? underdeveloped players. The odds are that quite a few of these guys will just never hit that ceiling.

[aaronweiner]

I think you hit on something I found worrying. That was all the underdeveloped youngsters. With a draft this deep, the bust potential is gonna be really high. The highest candidates for bust potential? fragile guys. second highest? underdeveloped players. The odds are that quite a few of these guys will just never hit that ceiling.

Glad you noticed: that was the idea in the back of my head too. Lots of players are underdeveloped in this draft. It's why I had to stare a LONG time before choosing Rogers - he's not well developed but he IS at a minimum solidly developed for 17 years old.

I also needed to go cheap because my team is experiencing stagflation.

[bschr682]

I almost took Ramos for this very reason. But it said he was impossible to sign as well.

[Cliche]

I was very happy to land Garcia. I will enjoy having a big OBP guy at third or second. I doubt I'd use him at shortstop (I'm a stickler for defense) but in a pinch, sure.

[aaronweiner]

I was very happy to land Garcia. I will enjoy having a big OBP guy at third or second. I doubt I'd use him at shortstop (I'm a stickler for defense) but in a pinch, sure.

I think Garcia might be better at second than short too, yeah. My concern was his arm. He'd be a ridiculous 1B.

[JimBob2232]

Good Perspective. Thanks.

Its always interesting to get the takes of other GMs. I think you are putting too much reliance on under-developed 18-20 year olds who still have 5-7 years before they are really expected to compete in the MBBA. But that's just my take, and if we all had the same opinions on this kind of stuff then this league would be pretty boring.

Thanks again!

You mean, teenagers like both of your first round picks? I don't quite understand the comment, but since nobody's questioning your ability to build a farm I'm sure you meant something.

I probably worded that wrong. I see alot of your comments are "underdeveloped for an old 18". My point was that I dont see being underdeveloped at 18 as being a huge issue when there is still 5-7 years before they need to be ready.

Yes, there is risk in not developing, and all things being equal, the developed prospect is far superior to the underdeveloped one, I just dont put that much merit in it, especially when it comes to the draft.

[aaronweiner]

Good Perspective. Thanks.

Its always interesting to get the takes of other GMs. I think you are putting too much reliance on under-developed 18-20 year olds who still have 5-7 years before they are really expected to compete in the MBBA. But that's just my take, and if we all had the same opinions on this kind of stuff then this league would be pretty boring.

Thanks again!

You mean, teenagers like both of your first round picks? I don't quite understand the comment, but since nobody's questioning your ability to build a farm I'm sure you meant something.

I probably worded that wrong. I see alot of your comments are "underdeveloped for an old 18". My point was that I dont see being underdeveloped at 18 as being a huge issue when there is still 5-7 years before they need to be ready.

Yes, there is risk in not developing, and all things being equal, the developed prospect is far superior to the underdeveloped one, I just dont put that much merit in it, especially when it comes to the draft.

Oh. I'll buy that.

[bschr682]

Good Perspective. Thanks.

Its always interesting to get the takes of other GMs. I think you are putting too much reliance on under-developed 18-20 year olds who still have 5-7 years before they are really expected to compete in the MBBA. But that's just my take, and if we all had the same opinions on this kind of stuff then this league would be pretty boring.

Thanks again!

You mean, teenagers like both of your first round picks? I don't quite understand the comment, but since nobody's questioning your ability to build a farm I'm sure you meant something.

I probably worded that wrong. I see alot of your comments are "underdeveloped for an old 18". My point was that I dont see being underdeveloped at 18 as being a huge issue when there is still 5-7 years before they need to be ready.

Yes, there is risk in not developing, and all things being equal, the developed prospect is far superior to the underdeveloped one, I just dont put that much merit in it, especially when it comes to the draft.

I would agree with you on all the versions of OOTP I have played up until now. This one seems to be a different kettle of fish as far as the draft and player development go.

[7teen]

Note to self....

Load my lower Minors with the best coaches I can find in hopes these guys develop......

[aaronweiner]

I don't even want to let on to the gigantic brick wall that's facing me with the second draft column, by the way. Imagine trying to find bargains and busts in THIS draft, much less "ones to watch."

[njherdfan]

I was thrilled that Benson was still available for me. If he can develop, he can be our future lead-off hitter for a long time, and he should be a solid defender in one of the corner outfield spots.

[Fat Nige]

Just noticed that Raúl Guerrero must be good - according to his BNN player page notes he played in the 2013 International Finishing Academy All-Star Game in 2014, twice in 2015 and once more in 2016 to cap it off ! it must be like one of these high school reunions, they all meet up again every year to re-enact their first AS game lol