Analysis of the First Round of the 2015 Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The second part will look at what I think are the best and worst picks and the most interesting ones and will arrive after the next sim.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. For entertainment purposes only. Do not use as a fire extinguisher. If there's any swelling, bruising or tearing after reading this article, for God's sake, stop hitting yourself!

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First Round Analysis


1. SP Mingo Boone (Yellow Springs): Boone was my top-rated pitcher in this draft. Fully developed, Boone might be comparable to last year’s JL Nebraska winner, Brian Middleton. Hard to find a flaw in this guy; Boone is perfectly well-developed for a young 22, solid intangibles, very solid pick. Nothing to see here, let’s move on.

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2. LF Harry Dunn (Carolina): Just like Boone, an extraordinarily safe pick. Dunn might actually be Carolina’s second best outfielder right now and projects to one of the best in the league, switch-hitter, great intangibles, well-developed. (Arguments will be taken that he’s currently their best outfielder, but shut up.) The pick meets a serious need for the team to have a hitting prospect that plays another position besides 1B. And now I have to tell myself to shut up.

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3. CF/RF William Kidd (Vancouver): Kidd isn’t overwhelmingly developed for a player who’s 22 years old, but he’s not lagging behind too badly. A defensive whiz who might be an extremely effective hitter, Kidd projects like (former All-Star) Jose Cruz with a Gold Glove.

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4. SP Manny Bautista (Las Vegas): Vegas was very surprised to get the potentially odds-on best pitcher in the draft, maybe one of the best potential lefties in the past few years. For that guy to slip to #4, there must be a catch, and there is: he’s already fragile at age 19. Besides the fact that Bautista is reportedly thick as a brick, has a history of injuries and isn’t all that thoroughly developed for an old 19 year old, he’s a perfect pick. Huge potential upside and a huge potential bust potential.

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5. 3B Diego Moreno (Halifax): Moreno is a good pick at #5, though he’s a long-term prospect. He’s extremely well-formed defensively for a 19 year old, and stands to be one of the better defensive 3B in the league. Moreno was actually a fairly blatant pick at #5.

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6. SP Tiberius Tennyson Taylor (Hawaii): My less favorite of the two lefties in the #6 and #7 pick, Taylor provides a great challenge pick situation because the guy picked after him was very similar. If you like stamina, though, Taylor has it. Taylor is solid across the board but needs to pick it up a little if he’s going to make the majors; college pitchers shouldn’t have to start their careers in the Spike Nolan League just to make it.

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7. SP Luis Freitas (Louisville): For my money, maybe the best value pick in the draft. If I’m gambling on this, I’d say Freitas, whose movement is fully formed, who has a borderline major league repertoire and just needs to work on his control to be a usable major league pitcher, will have the better career than Taylor. Possesses four positive pitches including a devastating fastball.

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8. SS Jonathan Archer (Calgary): I’m kind of in love with this pick; I was leaning towards taking him myself. Archer already projects to be one of the top five or ten shortstops in the entire game, and he comes with all parts assembled. Superior lefty bat with a bad eye, Archer should be able to take down all comers in his path, as should all men of his certain age. An enterprising pick. Oh boy. (Please, stop me any time.) Hopefully he doesn’t get cancelled after four seasons, because this pick is a winner. This pick was made before they knew that Davey Acheson would be out for the year, but Archer replaces a much worse player so it's probably fine.

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9. 3B Paul McKinney (Marquette): Oh, thank God. My mother always told me that if you don’t have anything nice to say, you should probably write long-winded passages about simulation baseball. That’s a significant misstatement (well, not the long-winded), but McKinney is a fairly weak offensive player with poor intangibles and a fantastic glove. This pick is extremely redeemable because McKinney is a 3B (and should definitely be tried as a shortstop), and most of the better picks after him are pitchers, but I’m not a huge fan of McKinney. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but maybe not, too.

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10. SS Raven Rider (Baltimore): Like Archer, a tremendous defensive shortstop with very strong offensive skills. Like Archer, a very polished young player. Unlike Archer, he doesn't really come ready right out of the can, but when he's ready he'll also be one of the top ten shortstops in the league. We're LOVING this draft so far - can you tell?

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11. 1B Drew Zod: Zod is probably overrated in some ways, but in some ways he's just exactly as good as you think. He's no Kal El, and as anyone will tell you, he's a little weak on defense. But he's just as fast, and the backwards platoon might serve him well in the future. He should be a very productive player, but he was probably drafted in the correct spot. Good intangibles, might set records for steals by first basemen or DHs.

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12. C Justin Joe (Greenville): Bazooka's a fantastic nickname for this guy. I'd also like Newsflash: You're Out. Joe could end up as the best defensive catcher in the league while hitting at least his weight and knocking around 15-20 homers, a very valuable guy without being a superstar. If he finds a new level of output, well, Dexter Sheehan changed his ratings in a big hurry.

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13. SS Orlando Solis (Birmingham): And thus ends the ballad of Orlando Solis, a tale that began here (link). Solis is in every way a nice player, but he's simply not at the same caliber as players drafted before him - which is precisely what makes sense to draft, well, after the other guys. A solid shortstop in every way, Solis will never be a star but should be a starter. BTW, in case you're wondering what's become of Schledorn, yowsa, he's bumped, so, yeah, worth every bit of the big deal spent over him.

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14. SP Mick Hanscombe (Des Moines): Des Moines tries to draft the most developed players they can, and good for them. Hanscombe is less ready than their picks in previous years, and we're not high on him; he's a soft tosser for 22 years old, he's got no out pitch and he's not a great groundball pitcher for having very low movement. Good intangibles, good stamina, lefty, but we're not sure Hanscombe, barring a talent bump, is going to be a really good ML pitcher.

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15. SP Ni Tann (Buffalo): For example, we'd rather have this guy. Great intangibles, throws hard for a teenager, good stamina, already a fully developed knuckle curve, three out pitches, Tann might not be a #1 starter but he's a great find at #15.

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16. SP Jorge Stanza (Omaha): I can't possibly give this a good grade. Psych! I absolutely freaking LOVE this kid. If it were up to me, I'd have probably taken him in the top ten. He’s not fully developed yet…not that there’s anything wrong with that! He might end up being the best pitcher in this draft by a sizeable margin, throws hard for a teenager, lefty, great movement and control potentials, really a wonderful prospect.

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17. SP Bruce Carr (Atlantic City): I like Bruce Carr for many of the same reasons I like Stanza above, though he's clearly not quite as good. Don't get me wrong, at his current ratings he ought to be a major leaguer, and he throws hard for a teenager, but he's got no legitimate out pitch, he's kind of an old 19, and he's got a long way to go before he's going to be all he can be. Solid intangibles.

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18. LF Andrew Ivey (Madison): Slapmaster Ivey should be pretty good right out of the gate. Fully developed, he'll hit for outstanding contact, but he'll never get on base very well or hit for any kind of power, and at 22 he's not likely to find those skills anywhere. Our leading candidate to hit the emptiest .320 ever, but he should combine that with at least 40 steals and be a very viable 9 or 2 hitter.

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19. SP Skip Stewart (Vancouver): If he doesn't become a starting pitcher, he'll make a phenomenal reliever conversion. Big fan of Stewart, who could be one of those hidden gems; guy has a lot of positives. Well developed for an 18 year old. Shouldn't be a bad pick in any case and could be very exciting.

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20. P Manny Vargas (Valencia): A guy who shouldn't be bad in any case, Vargas is one of those guys who could go any which way at all. Doesn't throw hard, but if he improves in that department he could be a really good one. Probably projects as a reliever, but might be able to start.

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21. SP Gow Cho (California): We think Cho is a very nice grab near the end of the first round. Nothing about him screams star, but Cho is interesting; he’s a lefty, throws hard for a teenager and has a huge control potential. What’s odd is that his control is by far the worst part of his game right now. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Cho end up at 6 control, or bust out to some kind of Jose Aicon type player. We shall see.

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22. 2B Cesar Colon (New Orleans): Colon is not likely to have much of a career hitting the ball, but he should hit an empty .270-.290 and field his position tremendously well. That along with good speed will make Colon a solid addition to any ballclub, albeit as a nine hole hitter or very good backup.

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23. SP Bingo Long (Chicago): Shouldn’t he be named “Bingo Moone?” Anyway, Long is an interesting pitcher; he probably won’t ever throw hard or strike out a lot of batters, but his movement and control should make him a serviceable starter for a decade, and we think that Long might be a very sneaky-good pick at the back end of the first round.

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24. CF Barry Allen (Seattle): A player who’s absolutely ready to be a platoon outfielder and pinch runner right now. He’s a fantastic defender, extremely fast and talented on the bases, and has just enough hitting ability that he’ll probably be a consistent .250 hitter (maybe .280 against lefties) with a little bit of pop. He’s a little bit old for his ratings to boost, but he’ll be a major leaguer, albeit probably not a starter.

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25. P Eduardo Vazquez (New Orleans): A good flyer on a very interesting pitcher. We really like Vazquez, though we think he’ll end up a reliever. He doesn’t throw that hard, but he’s a lefty and he’s just 19 years old, looks durable and could have two out pitches and be a fantastic reliever conversion down the pipe. We’d take him.

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26. 1B Elliot Spencer (Montreal): One of my custom ammys! Yay. Spencer is a fantastic get at #26. He’s a future starter at 1B, though not a star, a lefty bat with solid everything but totally unexciting anything. I certainly wouldn't throw him back.

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[trmmilwwi]

Bingo Moone! I love it! Great writeup... love hearing others thoughts on the picks.

[agrudez]

How do you second guess Zod? Kid is going to shred rectums, man... no doubt. A LHB that CAN'T get victimized by LHPing... there isn't another player like him in the league. I'm sure you recall how dissapointing (though completely predictable) Fitzpatrick was? Well, take that multiplier for his underwhelmingness and apply it to Zodd's POT in the positive. Freitas was a great (albeit obvious, imo) pick at that slot... so nothing to detract from that, but Zod was hands down the steal of this draft. His splits currently project to 8/8/9/8 against RHP. Know how many RHBs in the league can boast that? Zero. Al Jones comes the closest (-1 CON/EYE, +1 GAP, -2 POW), but is clearly not on the same level and he's a lifetime .856 OPS. So, extrapolate that to predict a .900 OPS average for Zod and then tack on 50+ SBs a year and... well, I think you get the idea!

Thanks for the vote of confidence in Stanza, btw... I was pretty floored to see him available myself. STU is sexy and all, but give me some elite MOV and CON over that noise any day... and, of course, lefties rule the world (well, the MBBA, anyway) - so there's always that.

Also, EVS didn't bump, btw, he got (some might say rightfully) converted to a reliever.

[aaronweiner]

How do you second guess Zod? Kid is going to shred rectums, man... no doubt. A LHB that CAN'T get victimized by LHPing... there isn't another player like him in the league. I'm sure you recall how dissapointing (though completely predictable) Fitzpatrick was? Well, take that multiplier for his underwhelmingness and apply it to Zodd's POT in the positive. Freitas was a great (albeit obvious, imo) pick at that slot... so nothing to detract from that, but Zod was hands down the steal of this draft.

Thanks for the vote of confidence in Stanza, btw... I was pretty floored to see him available myself. STU is sexy and all, but give me some elite MOV and CON over that noise any day... and, of course, lefties rule the world (well, the MBBA, anyway) - so there's always that.

Also, EVS didn't bump, btw, he got (some might say rightfully) converted to a reliever.

You mean a RHB that can't get victimized by RHPing? Sure he can. I'm also concerned about how far his abilities against LHPing are lagging behind, and the fact that he's got a terrible Ks rating which means along with his 7 contact might mean he's a .240 hitter.

He ought to be good, but I don't agree with you.

Thanks on EVS.

[agrudez]

You mean a RHB that can't get victimized by RHPing? Sure he can. I'm also concerned about how far his abilities against LHPing are lagging behind, and the fact that he's got a terrible Ks rating which means along with his 7 contact might mean he's a .240 hitter.

No, I meant what I said. He's a LHB that can't get victimized by LHP'ing because LHPs don't get the benefit of THEIR +splits since he's a RHB. He also doesn't have a '7' CON, against upwards of 80% of the pitchers in the league he'll have an '8' CON... and, as we've discussed in the past, that low AVK relative to his CON just means he has a higher internal BABIP to compensate. He's pretty clearly a .290 hitter to me... maybe even more since he's such a rare (I can't think of any others like him off the top of my head... except Fitzpatrick and Randall on the wrong end of the comp) specimen.

[aaronweiner]

I don't think he'll be that high against RHP, but if he is, I suspect you're probably right. I would in fact expect him to be his potential ratings against RHP and considerably worse against LHP.

That doesn't mean I'm convinced.

[njherdfan]

I always love these articles, great work.

[agrudez]

I don't think he'll be that high against RHP, but if he is, I suspect you're probably right. I would in fact expect him to be his potential ratings against RHP and considerably worse against LHP.

That doesn't mean I'm convinced.

All I can work off of is how he's currently trending with his splits. As of today, at full POT, it appears he'll have 7/6/7/6/4 and 8/8/9/8/4 splits (that vs. LHP doesn't look THAT bad now, actually... certainly not as bad as some of the current elite LHBs in the league [Hi, Goodwin!]). Obviously, its not a slam dunk it ends up that way even if he fully develops, but that's the fun of prognosticating!

Anyway... great article once again, Aaron. I just wanted to get some final gushing out for my man, Zod. After this post I'll revert to dragging his name through the mud to reduce his trade value - maybe Jason will want some pitching for a late run next year.

[SteveM-A2]

Thanks for write up. Enjoyed reading it very much.

[aaronweiner]

and, as we've discussed in the past, that low AVK relative to his CON just means he has a higher internal BABIP to compensate.

The way I also look at this statement is that because BABIP is basically aside from strikeouts, he needs to have a MUCH higher BABIP to compensate. Remove 80 at-bats from being hits (a presumable difference between a 4 K rating and a 7-8 K rating) and you're looking at a guy who has just, say, 400-500 plate appearances to do what he's supposed to do in closer to 500-600 of them.

Let's say he has 580 plate appearances, and say a normal player strikes out 100 times a year, but he's closer to 200, let's say 180. So the possible at bats he has to get a hit drops from 480 to 400 AB, to hit .290 his BABIP would need to go from .350 to .421 (and I'm including homers because homers are just uncaught hits) - which is a HUGE jump, 20%.

Oh, and you're probably wondering: what happens if he gets the same .350 BABIP? He hits .241 that year. Even a 10% jump would only give him a (predictably) .265 average.

Mathed.

Absolutely feel free to use this post in trade talks.

[aaronweiner]

Thanks for write up. Enjoyed reading it very much.

Thanks, Steve. I do this every year. I have another one coming, too, and my other article is better, or so Kyle claims. I actually think so too - I get way deep into the draft this year; the last player I analyze is in the 250s.

[agrudez]

and, as we've discussed in the past, that low AVK relative to his CON just means he has a higher internal BABIP to compensate.

The way I also look at this statement is that because BABIP is basically aside from strikeouts, he needs to have a MUCH higher BABIP to compensate. Remove 80 at-bats from being hits (a presumable difference between a 4 K rating and a 7-8 K rating) and you're looking at a guy who has just, say, 400-500 plate appearances to do what he's supposed to do in closer to 500-600 of them.

Let's say he has 580 plate appearances, and say a normal player strikes out 100 times a year, but he's closer to 200, let's say 180. So the possible at bats he has to get a hit drops from 480 to 400 AB, to hit .290 his BABIP would need to go from .350 to .421 (and I'm including homers because homers are just uncaught hits) - which is a HUGE jump, 20%.

Oh, and you're probably wondering: what happens if he gets the same .350 BABIP? He hits .241 that year. Even a 10% jump would only give him a (predictably) .265 average.

Mathed.

Absolutely feel free to use this post in trade talks.

I'm getting de ja vu... haha.

[jcrmoon42]

Hey, Whatever. As long as we're talking about General Zod, I'm pretty cool with that. I think the key statement in all of this is:

"Kid is going to shred rectums, man... no doubt."

[trmmilwwi]

I'll add my usual 2 cents with respect to Zod... "Yep, he's good."

[njherdfan]

With respect to my Barry Allen pick, I'm hoping he can become a starter based solely on the strength of his defense. Basically, I need him to be an elite defender. Last year Rob Cramer put up 2.8 WAR with a bad offensive season on the strength of his incredible defense. I'm hoping Allen can do the same.

[crobillard]

Right on the money with this article. I was very close to picking Archer or Taylor instead of Moreno. Really had my eye Bautista the entire time though. I'm happy with Moreno, I don't mind waiting around for him.

[aaronweiner]

With respect to my Barry Allen pick, I'm hoping he can become a starter based solely on the strength of his defense. Basically, I need him to be an elite defender. Last year Rob Cramer put up 2.8 WAR with a bad offensive season on the strength of his incredible defense. I'm hoping Allen can do the same.

There's a lot to be said for this type of strategy.

[agrudez]

With respect to my Barry Allen pick, I'm hoping he can become a starter based solely on the strength of his defense. Basically, I need him to be an elite defender. Last year Rob Cramer put up 2.8 WAR with a bad offensive season on the strength of his incredible defense. I'm hoping Allen can do the same.

I did that with Bailey Lowe once in 2011 (his defense was 10+/8/6 and he was only a few seasons removed from setting [most likely] a league record for CF ZR in a season)... with the emphasis on ONCE. I see alot of Lowe in Allen... a WHOLE lot more than Cramer.

[njherdfan]

With respect to my Barry Allen pick, I'm hoping he can become a starter based solely on the strength of his defense. Basically, I need him to be an elite defender. Last year Rob Cramer put up 2.8 WAR with a bad offensive season on the strength of his incredible defense. I'm hoping Allen can do the same.

I did that with Bailey Lowe once in 2011 (his defense was 10+/8/6 and he was only a few seasons removed from setting [most likely] a league record for CF ZR in a season)... with the emphasis on ONCE. I see alot of Lowe in Allen... a WHOLE lot more than Cramer.

Just to be clear, I'm not comparing Allen to Cramer except for their defensive abilities. Cramer will probably become a star. I don't think that will ever happen with Allen. All I was saying is that last year Cramer was worth 2.8 WAR while posting a well below average OPS+ and overall offensive season, which I think is possible for Allen to do.

Of course, the downside with this line of reasoning is that it requires Allen to be not merely a good CF, but a superlatively good CF

[7teen]

Re: Ivey...

I'm ecstatic I got him where I did. He's not a superstar, but I have ZERO hitting prospects coming up. Landing a guy that actually has the ability out of the gate to step into a lineup, whether it be 2nd in the lineup or 9th, is huge for us. He'll contribute. Even if it is just a .320/.340/.360 stat line. Throw in 40 stolen bases and he'll be a cheap asset in the lineup.