Re: Yearly Averages
Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:56 am
Me tooaaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:35 amRon: now do the same analysis again, but cut out the lowest 6% for going from 30 teams to 32.
I say it's expansion.
Me tooaaronweiner wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:35 amRon: now do the same analysis again, but cut out the lowest 6% for going from 30 teams to 32.
I say it's expansion.
just imagine how crazy the numbers would be if we took all of the barking dogs out of the park to change the factors there...RonCo wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:06 amFirst: Here is a table of numbers broken into four different sections. They represent bits of data that are true from 2029 and on. I’ll make some analysis as I go, but I’m open to other interpretations.
I'll look at the first couple segments in this post, then do some others on the stats data...
Park-Ratings-Stats-2029-2041.PNG
PARK FACTORS:
I’ve got some records of park factors from the past few years (averaged across the entire league). You can see that in 2041 we saw increases in AVG, 2B, and 3B, and decreases in HR. Similarly, we saw essentially the same thing in 2040—but AVG was maintained.
So, there’s data to say that our basic environment became more hitter friendly during the past two seasons.
RATINGS (PITCHING & HITTING):
I grabbed the ratings data I posted earlier, and put them here. These are valuable in context of the conversation because they’ve dropped pretty much across the board. I think there are three leading causes of these drops (in no particular perceived order).
1) Expansion has diluted the pool of players (applicable to all players)
2) The development engine is hyped up after the big draft classes (applicable to all players)
3) The injury model is hitting pitchers more now than it did in 2037
Add the park factors into this, and I think all of these are valid influencers to some degree (though the injury model has been toned down a bit now, its remnants could be being felt in these rating numbers). I note we should also recall the fact that our defensive performance has dropped by a percentage point or two (which is about player creation and the development engine, too).
I think it’s also probably not correct to pick only one of these and say that’s the cause of what’s happening this year. [This year, as were going to see, is a pretty big outlier]. I think the fact is that we have several things that influence the game’s outputs, and many of them have aligned to create this current surge in offense.
STATS RESULTS:
I’m going to follow this with a bunch of individual charts, but I wanted to put them here so you’ll see the raw data. It comes from StatsPlus and represents that average output/rates of a team in any particular season.
What I think this data will say is that while I’m sure expansion makes a little difference here, that it’s unlikely to be a very major contributor to the situation.
I think you're right.bschr682 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:09 pmquick glance (very quick might have missed) shows the 2 expansion teams, Boise, Chicago, and Cali in the last 2 years. Cali went back to more of a pitchers park. I think Chicago's park is far more pitcher friendly than Huntsville was. So I dunno what to make of that.