Landis Memorial Preview ---NEW!

[aaronweiner]

Chicago Black Sox vs. Des Moines Kernels


Series Overview

It's hard to believe, with three (four?) owners in the past two seasons and a losing record last year, but the Chicago Black Sox won the MBBA title in 1995 AND 1996, and they're back for a third time to try to regain their title over the upstart Des Moines Kernels, beating the 109-win Madison Wolves to capture their third JL Pennant. The matchup is interesting; Des Moines was the best team in the Frick by a significant margin this year, while Chicago limped into the playoffs, finishing 84-78 and winning the wild card by one game over three other teams.

In fact, this reminds us of another series, three years ago, where the 103 win Chicago Black Sox won their first championship against...you guessed it, the 88-win Des Moines Kernels. This series will be the first rematch in the Landis, and it may not be the last time these two teams find their way into the finals. Both teams are surprisingly well-constructed for teams that haven't won more than 84 games since that 1995 matchup.

In the preseason, both teams were expected to have some modest success. Des Moines was pinpointed as a team on the rise after a 95-loss season; Chicago rebalanced their roster after a stumble to 91 losses in 1997. However, neither was expected to win their division, and Chicago lived down to that expectation, losing their division by 25 games but sneaking into the playoffs with a last-day wild card win. Des Moines took advantage of a tumble by Austin and a jumbled mess in Birmingham to run away with the Frick Midwest by August.

Let's look at a few important factors in this series, and then we'll try to predict a winner.


Keys to the Series


Three Chicago Keys


1. Will anyone show up on offense for this series?

The Black Sox are a solid, balanced, deep offense, but Resurrection Santos is the key to this team's offensive attack. Santos won the JL batting title this season with a .372 average, and just for good measure, hit 38 homers and led the league in OPS by 100 points over second place.

That's why it came as such a nasty shock that Santos suffered an injury in the first game against Madison that will keep him out through the end of the postseason (and a nastier shock for Madison as they went down to Chicago without Santos). Duststorm Donovan was the catalyst offensively in the last five games of the Madison series, but Donovan posted a .723 OPS this year...and c'mon, he's their shortstop. Chicago will need a big series from Alfonso Torres, Willie Armenta and Washu Hakubi if they're going to have a chance, because, unlike prior seasons, Chicago's starting pitching isn't good enough to carry them alone.


2. Will anyone but Jeff Kiplinger pitch well enough to win?

Kiplinger suffered through the worst campaign of his eight-year career during the regular season, but the ace righty got it together in the playoffs and is 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA in the postseason. Washington Jones got two HUGE wins against the Wolves in the last series, but can he be counted upon in the Landis? Bjorn Nepal has been great for Chicago in the playoffs in the past, but he's been plowed in the playoffs this season after suffering a shoulder injury earlier this season.

3. Is 84-win Chicago good enough?

This is kind of a tough statement, since Chicago did just beat the supposed best team in the MBBA in Madison in a seven-game series without their best player - so one would think that, yes, they're good enough. Really, we should be asking this question of Des Moines, since they're not two-time MBBA Champs, but the tendency is to ask the question of the team with the worse record, and Des Moines did win 14 more games than Chicago did this season.


Three Des Moines Keys


1. Who the hell are these guys?

Larry Wilkes? Nigel Halime? Matias Ferrero? Slippery Pete and Slick Levin? What was the name of that waiter? (simultaneously) Jean-Claude!

What's happened is that the Des Moines Kernels, who already had a pretty good farm system, have seen the system bear fruit. They've also made some stunningly solid trades; Ferrero and Wilkes, for example, came this year via trade, and there's really not a lot more to say about it. However: we haven't seen how these players will do under the biggest spotlight we have in this league.


2. Is Des Moines' pitching as good as they were in the regular season?

We're not too worried about Eddie Harris, Ben Rivera or Nate Minchey. However, there have been a lot - a LOT - of overachieving Kernels in the bullpen, and while they don't seem to have many duds, they don't inspire incredible confidence. We think that Des Moines might be subtly vulnerable late in games, a fairly interesting assessment of a team that finished first in bullpen ERA with a - and this is not a typo - 3.08 ERA for the entire bullpen, all year long.

Look at the BABIP for some of the bullpen members: Trevor Heath, .268 BABIP; Masaki Yamauchi, .248 BABIP; Daniel Kinard, .253 BABIP. We're not quite as concerned with mopup man Angus MacGyver's .329 BABIP (not great) or future stud Juan Quintero's .364 mark in 7 IP. This is a pen that is definitely vulnerable against a team with consistent hitting, and Chicago has several players who could take advantage of the pen.


3. Isn't Des Moines way, way better than Chicago?

On the surface, without Santos, we'd have to say yes, they're way, way better. Certainly, their GM is one of the best in the business; they achieved some outrageous deals this season to get to where they are. (We're still shaking our head over the Larry Wilkes deal.) That said, only Wilkes had an OPS higher than .900 this year, and this is not a team driven by superstars; it's a team effort in Des Moines. We don't think Des Moines is the Frick's answer to Madison; we think they're a good team that should get better but doesn't HAVE to get better.


In the final analysis:

Des Moines should win this series in six, five, or - gasp - four games. Chicago barely squeaked into the playoffs, they're missing their best player, and they're lucky to be here. We think that Santos is the one player that Chicago could not afford to lose for this series. Madison/Des Moines would have been interesting. Chicago finally loses a Landis, and Des Moines wins the first of possibly multiple titles.

[lynchy34]

Man, I hope you're right.

As you said, this wasn't supposed to be our year. But the opportunity to bring in guys like Wilkes, Ferrero, Hauser, Rivera and Minchey obviously helped enormously. Yes, the BABIPs are low, but I also have one of the best defenses in the game. I feel confident, but also realize that OOTP playoffs are more luck than anything.

[aaronweiner]

Well, I don't get them all, but some, I get.

Suffice it to say that your team's the clear favorite.

[LambeauLeap]

It's going to be a good series. Going to have to vote for Des Moines here and hope he brings it home to the FL Central.

[paul j kiggins]

very good reading but i'll have to cheer for Chicago.....put the Kernels in a box for breakfast cereal!!!!!!!

[ryankcollins]

Everyone knows who I am cheering for...