Breaking Down the JL Midwest Division Race

[aaronweiner]

We had a new entry into the playoff races this week: the JL Midwest, which features the MBBA reigning champion Chicago Black Sox against the upstart Phoenix Talons, who stand just two games back with nine to play. (The JL Atlantic has also gotten close, but as the loser of that race has won the wild card we don't feel the need to write it up.) Phoenix hasn't so much crawled back into the race as Chicago has blown it; the Black Sox are 6-12 in September, allowing the Talons, with a solid if unspectacular 10-7 record in September, to gain four and a half games.

Both teams have easy and nearly identical schedules down the stretch:

Chicago Schedule: 2 Omaha, 3 Madison, 4 Phoenix
Phoenix Schedule: 2 Madison, 3 Omaha, 4 Chicago

We think that the final four games will probably determine the division title, but let's look at all the angles.

Head to head record: 8-7 Chicago

Chicago record against Omaha: 12-8
Chicago record against Madison: 17-2!!!

Phoenix record against Omaha: 11-6
Phoenix record against Madison: 10-10


Obviously, these records reflect a Chicago advantage, but here's a stat that's helping Phoenix: the Talons are 5-2 against Chicago in their last two sims. Here's another: Chicago has just two starting pitchers with ERAs below four, and one of them, team wins leader Jeff Kiplinger, is out for the season. Yet another: Phoenix's run differential is over twice Chicago's, 52 to 21. Larry Wilkes has made a huge difference for Phoenix with his .929 OPS.

In other words: Phoenix has really come on over the last few months. Are they too late? Well, in a word, no. Two games is a significant lead with nine to go, but unless Phoenix lays an egg against Madison and Omaha and Chicago plays like gangbusters, the Talons will have a real chance to take home the prize.

Because Chicago already has a two game advantage and quality starting pitching aside from Kiplinger, they should be able to win at least four of five against Madison and Omaha. If they do then Phoenix will have to do the same to keep pace (a very possible result) and then take three of four from Chicago to end the year, since a four-game sweep is very unlikely. It could come down to the last day of the season and continue into the day afterward. Whatever the case: it'll be a fascinating finish.


Final Percentage Odds (this is to at least tie for the division)

Chicago 80%
Phoenix 20%

Explanation: Chicago is stumbling to the finish line, but they'll get the easy schedule against Omaha and Madison, while Phoenix will basically draw more those two teams' more productive starting pitchers. However, if both win four of five - or if Phoenix somehow gains ground, which is unlikely - it's really anyone's ballgame.

[Afino]

[quote="aaronweiner"The JL Atlantic has also gotten close, but as the loser of that race has won the wild card we don't feel the need to write it up.[/quote]

Boo.

I've closed from 8.5 to 3 in the last three sims. And we have three games against each other in the final sim.

[aaronweiner]

Geez, how much work did you want me to do this weekend? I'm only one guy.

Besides, you're both in. I didn't bother writing up the FL Atlantic either, even though it's technically not over.

[tylertoo]

Nice write up Aaron. Stumbling to the finish line is an understatement, we've played like shit in the past six weeks and haven't had a winning sim in I don't know how long. Now we've lost Kiplinger and Corngood has been cornbad, 2-4 with 5+ ERA in 10 starts since coming over.

Talons, meanwhile, are hanging tough. Courtesy Statslab:

[jpoppe0219]

nice write up. I believe that we may be too late here, but we're going for it here at the end.

[aaronweiner]

BTW, just in case anyone thinks I should have written up the JL Atlantic, it would be good if the rest of the articles were READ...nobody bothered reading the other two.