2064 – Let’s Play “Find a 9-Range Centerfielder!”

[RonCo]

All right .The title says it all. But to set the scene, let me say that while I’ve been sitting on the sidelines much of the year, it seemed like every time I peeked in there was gnashing of teeth about Team A or Team B not playing a decent centerfielder. By that, I took it to mean that everyone should have a guy with at least 9 Range out there.

Which is cool.

I mean. That’s not a horrific comment to make.

Or is it?

I recently asked myself that question, and set off to answer it. How hard is it, after all, to find a workaday 9-Range centerfielder? Now, to really play the game I need to even further set the scene. Let’s say we are a team that is kind of borderline on competing. WE can win some games, but only the staunchest of eyes with the rosiest of rose-colored glasses to say we’re really going to compete to win. You know what I mean. Let’s say, then, that we’d really prefer (if possible) to keep our powder dry for next year, but that if a sporty-enough model of a CF was available, we’re willing to pay something for it.

Heck, it’s possible those rose-colored glasses might be right. With a good dice roll, anyway. And no injuries. I mean, maybe, just maybe it’s our year.

I’m going to make the game easier for me, simply because I now have the 2064 stats in front of me. But, really, we could have made predictions in advance, anyway…and many of us probably did.

So, all right. Let’s go shopping.


Defining the Pool (BBA Level)

First things first, I take a moment and scan the big leagues. I grab every guy who started in CF this past year—though I cut it off at 5 games. Looking at the data, that only exclueded NSH’s Kohei Okada, who is going to show up later when I expand the search to AAA players. So that cut-off didn’t matter. That cut found me 43 players.

Of those, Crissy Tingle is the only guy with an 11-Range. Good luck getting him from Nashville, so let’s remove him from the target pool.

That leaves 12 guys who have 10-Range. Eight of them, I think you’ll agree are absolute locks for their teams, meaning that barring making a massive overpay, you’ll not get them, and in your situation, that would make no sense.

So we’ve now removed:

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Crissy Tingle	NSH	29	11	11	7	2.5	100	99
Lou Bayou	SAC	29	10	11	8	9.5	148	148
Héctor Ruíz	VAN	23	10	8	7	3.7	149	149
Carlos Sánchez	HAW	31	10	8	10	2.7	147	147
Victor Frazier	TWC	29	10	8	8	2	120	119
Emílio Reyes	CCJ	30	10	8	8	1.9	146	144
Roberto Hampton	LV	26	10	8	7	1.5	151	150
Jerry Woodall	AUS	25	10	10	9	1.4	150	150
Dan Morris	CHI	29	10	9	6	1.1	149	149

That leaves four guys as Real Targets So Far:

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Félix Torres	CLG	27	10	8	10	1.1	77	76
Ed Rooney	CBH	29	10	10	11	0.4	98	88
Bob Park	CBH	26	10	9	8	-1.1	104	98
Amphibian Johnson	BOI	29	10	11	5	-1.5	118	118

I’ll note that two of them are with Cobble Hill (one of which, Ed Rooney, came in a deal with Montreal…so he could have been available). I’m tempted, though, to remove Rooney and Hill, but we’ll deal with them later.

So that leaves us with guys with 9-Range, of which there are 30.

Twelve of those, however, started over half their team’s games. I think it’s fair to say that in order to trade for primary starting CF simply to get a 9-Range CF, we’re going to have to pay more than our budget. So we will remove these guys, too:

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Pedro Toro	PHX	22	9	7	9	3.4	145	143
Júlio Martínez	MEX	27	9	7	9	2.4	148	148
Vladislav Wishenkoff	JAX	26	9	7	7	2.3	134	110
Jim Sitton	SFB	24	9	6	5	2.1	129	123
Don Anderson	YS9	27	9	8	7	1.8	131	126
Sonny Bigalow	ROS	33	9	10	9	1.8	83	81
Gary Keller	MAD	27	9	9	9	1.2	149	149
José Bedreddin	CHA	25	9	8	5	1.2	115	105
Clancy Lee	MTL	26	9	6	7	0.8	100	96
Matt Pruitt	POR	26	9	8	6	0.4	125	125
Justin Vaive	CLG	24	9	9	7	0.3	98	86
John Kagwa	ATC	25	9	7	6	0.1	116	111

You might take note that I sorted these players by WAR achieved, and if you note that, you might also note that three of them created under 0.5 WAR, which, given the “accuracy” of WAR could well mean they were replacement level (despite that 9-Range). Which might be important later, eh?

Regardless, that leaves us 18 players.

We’ll remove Des Moines’ Hernandez because…well…Des Moines. They aren’t trading Hernandez, I’d guess. We’re going to remove three others, too. First, I can tell you that Amin Abdul-Halim is not on the market unless you want to give me a replacement...and that makes no sense for our game situation. I’m also removing Carter Cramer and Blair Peyton because they are Carter Cramer and Blair Peyton.

So these guys are gone.

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
António Hernández	DM	27	9	7	11	2	97	78
Amin Abdul-Halim	BIK	27	9	8	9	0.9	123	72
Carter Cramer	NSH	24	9	9	8	4	62	60
Blair Peyton	TWC	32	9	10	11	6.7	53	43

So, that says we have 14 more Real Targets So Far (to add to our four above):

Putting them all together, and sorting by WAR, we get this list…

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Dennis Armitage	CHA	30	9	9	10	1.9	63	57
Félix Torres	CLG	27	10	8	10	1.1	77	76
Atsushi Gato	HAW	26	9	8	7	1	17	12
Luis Morales	CPF	29	9	10	8	0.9	78	71
Dwight Heard	ROS	23	9	6	6	0.9	47	30
Ed Rooney	CBH	29	10	10	11	0.4	98	88
Byung-gyu Kim	ATC	24	9	7	8	0.2	39	27
Dallas Sly	SFB	28	9	9	9	0.1	53	37
Víctor Torrez	YS9	26	9	5	7	0	41	33
Vance Coppock	SA	27	9	6	10	0	38	10
Jorge Hernández	JAX	26	9	6	7	-0.2	66	46
Mario Romero	CCJ	30	9	8	7	-0.2	17	7
Tom Trevelyan	PHX	29	9	6	5	-0.3	23	19
Lenya Adlerov	MTL	27	9	5	7	-0.3	14	14
Kaya Al-Dîn	LBC	24	9	5	6	-0.7	28	28
Bob Hills	SFB	28	9	7	8	-0.8	78	56

We’re not done, though. Because there might be some guys in AAA to look at. So let’s do the same thing for AAA.



Defining the Pool (AAA Level)

There are currently fifteen 9-Range CF on AAA rosters, but it turns out that four of them made stats in the BBA, so were already on the list. That leaves eleven.

Here is that list, complete with the AAA GS, sorted by WAR (in AAA):

Name	ORG	Lev	Age	OVR	POT	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Kohei Okada	NSH	AAA	25	45	45	9	7	7	3	105	103
Mario Ledezma	CBH	AAA	24	45	45	9	7	7	1.7	56	55
Tomás Ramos	BIK	AAA	25	35	40	9	7	8	1.4	124	121
Júlio Estrada	SAC	AA	23	40	40	9	7	7	0.9	41	39
Dave Hutchinson	TWC	AAA	28	40	40	9	10	8	0.8	79	65
Alberto Anaya	CBH	A	24	35	35	9	5	8	0.5	73	73
Juan Cabrera	TWC	AAA	28	40	40	10	8	7	0.4	72	69
Brandon Vader	CBH	A	24	35	35	9	7	8	0.4	30	30
Kamil Ghilzai	TWC	AAA	30	30	30	9	10	11	0.3	9	3
José López	CLG	AAA	26	35	35	9	7	7	0.1	72	71
Firoz Sajjadi	CBH	AAA	23	35	40	9	6	8	-0.1	9	8

I’ll note that three of these were demoted by season’s end. I will remove these. I’ll also take the liberty of removing the one who made negative WAR in AAA. We’re looking for someone who can compete at least a little, right?

So here’s that list.

Name	ORG	Age	OVR	POT	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Kohei Okada	NSH-AAA	25	45	45	9	7	7	3	105	103
Mario Ledezma	CBH-AAA	24	45	45	9	7	7	1.7	56	55
Tomás Ramos	BIK-AAA	25	35	40	9	7	8	1.4	124	121
Dave Hutchinson	TWC-AAA	28	40	40	9	10	8	0.8	79	65
Juan Cabrera	TWC-AAA	28	40	40	10	8	7	0.4	72	69
Kamil Ghilzai	TWC-AAA	30	30	30	9	10	11	0.3	9	3
José López	CLG-AAA	26	35	35	9	7	7	0.1	72	71

It might be worth noting that three of these candidates are sitting in TWC’s minor leagues. I don’t know.

All right, then…. Let’s put it all together.


Let’s Find a 9-Range CF!

Here is the full candidate list, sorted by level and WAR.

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Dennis Armitage	CHA	30	9	9	10	1.9	63	57
Félix Torres	CLG	27	10	8	10	1.1	77	76
Atsushi Gato	HAW	26	9	8	7	1	17	12
Luis Morales	CPF	29	9	10	8	0.9	78	71
Dwight Heard	ROS	23	9	6	6	0.9	47	30
Ed Rooney	CBH	29	10	10	11	0.4	98	88
Byung-gyu Kim	ATC	24	9	7	8	0.2	39	27
Dallas Sly	SFB	28	9	9	9	0.1	53	37
Víctor Torrez	YS9	26	9	5	7	0	41	33
Vance Coppock	SA	27	9	6	10	0	38	10
Jorge Hernández	JAX	26	9	6	7	-0.2	66	46
Mario Romero	CCJ	30	9	8	7	-0.2	17	7
Tom Trevelyan	PHX	29	9	6	5	-0.3	23	19
Lenya Adlerov	MTL	27	9	5	7	-0.3	14	14
Kaya Al-Dîn	LBC	24	9	5	6	-0.7	28	28
Bob Hills	SFB	28	9	7	8	-0.8	78	56
Bob Park	CBH	26	10	9	8	-1.1	104	98
Amphibian Johnson	BOI	29	10	11	5	-1.5	118	118
----------------
Kohei Okada	NSH-AAA	25	9	7	7	3	105	103
Mario Ledezma	CBH-AAA	24	9	7	7	1.7	56	55
Tomás Ramos	BIK-AAA	25	9	7	8	1.4	124	121
Dave Hutchinson	TWC-AAA	28	9	10	8	0.8	79	65
Juan Cabrera	TWC-AAA	28	10	8	7	0.4	72	69
Kamil Ghilzai	TWC-AAA	30	9	10	11	0.3	9	3
José López	CLG-AAA	26	9	7	7	0.1	72	71

Let’s talk a little about the game we’re playing, now. Because if I’m sitting in March or April and looking forward, and do my due diligence, and I have this list. And my choice is between playing a lesser defender who can hit, what I’m basically asking is “ who can I get that is going to get me more WAR than I already have, or at least positive WAR?”

Since I’m playing this game with a bit of foresight, I’ll suggest that if I’d made a move to grab one of the negative WAR players, that would have, presumably, cost me trade fodder for no value. (The argument that says I should get a 9-Range center fielder is all about winning more games—which WAR, WINS Above Replacement—is supposed to model). I’m going to cheat, and use my foresight to avoid making a bad trade. I’m also going to cut the guys who made less than half a WAR in AAA for what I hope are obvious reasons.

This reduced the list to:

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Dennis Armitage	CHA	30	9	9	10	1.9	63	57
Félix Torres	CLG	27	10	8	10	1.1	77	76
Atsushi Gato	HAW	26	9	8	7	1	17	12
Luis Morales	CPF	29	9	10	8	0.9	78	71
Dwight Heard	ROS	23	9	6	6	0.9	47	30
Ed Rooney	CBH	29	10	10	11	0.4	98	88
Byung-gyu Kim	ATC	24	9	7	8	0.2	39	27
Dallas Sly	SFB	28	9	9	9	0.1	53	37
----------------
Kohei Okada	NSH-AAA	25	9	7	7	3	105	103
Mario Ledezma	CBH-AAA	24	9	7	7	1.7	56	55
Tomás Ramos	BIK-AAA	25	9	7	8	1.4	124	121
Dave Hutchinson	TWC-AAA	28	9	10	8	0.8	79	65
Juan Cabrera	TWC-AAA	28	10	8	7	0.4	72	69
Kamil Ghilzai	TWC-AAA	30	9	10	11	0.3	9	3
José López	CLG-AAA	26	9	7	7	0.1	72	71

So, there we have it. The question here is, then, how much of your future are you willing to give up for any of these players? To that, I’ll add in the point that there are really four interesting targets:

Of which, Armitage, Torres, and Gato’s usage suggests that they were fairly solid parts of their team’s plans for the year, and would probably have had to bring a steep enough price to limit the value of that trade for us. The fourth, Okada, would entail dealing with Chad in Nashville, and would, again, probably be more dear than we’re willing to spend.

Still, it’s worth making a call, though I suspect we all kind of know what the answer will be. “Sure, let’s deal! I’ll take that 55 prospect you’ve got in AA!”

Maybe I’m wrong?

Anyway, I’m going to further note that, for my tastes, ATC’s Kum and SFB’s Sly seem to fall into the negative WAR candidate camp. I’m personally not willing to part with much of value for at best a 1-season stop-gap, especially if I’ve got an 8 with a bigger bat (or _maybe_ even a 7 if the bat is truly worthy). In addition, I’m going to struggle to get excited about replacing that 8-Range fair-bat guy with a AAA guy who doesn’t have the grunt to make half a WAR in AAA.

So my guess is that the effective pool in true operations looks like this:

Name	ORG	Age	OF RNG	OF ERR	OF ARM	WAR	G	GS
Luis Morales	CPF	29	9	10	8	0.9	78	71
Dwight Heard	ROS	23	9	6	6	0.9	47	30
Ed Rooney	CBH	29	10	10	11	0.4	98	88
----------------
Mario Ledezma	CBH-AAA	24	9	7	7	1.7	56	55
Tomás Ramos	BIK-AAA	25	9	7	8	1.4	124	121
Dave Hutchinson	TWC-AAA	28	9	10	8	0.8	79	65

Of these, Ledezma would be my main real target, but I’d guess shoeless will value him like a GM should, and again it would be too pricey for my general situation. Still, I’d make the contact.


Do I Pull The Trigger

So there we are. Ron’s most likely path through the game of Find a 9-Range Centerfielder! The final question is, do I pull the trigger on something for any of these guys? The answer, of course, that it depends on what my team has to start with and what the other GM is asking. For my trading tastes, I’m projecting that I simply wouldn’t find a deal to my tastes, and that would my my 8 (or 7?) CF would be taking the field.

But I could be wrong here. The world does weird things.

But feel free to walk yourself through this. Click through the links (thanks Lane!) to check out the player's overall ratings and tell me where your tastes differ from mine. I can be educated.

Maybe.

[JimBob2232]

I knew I’d find no crawdads on here!

[Krathan]

Well, after reading this article, maybe I should change my stance on the article I just wrote and resign Dennis Armitage after all. He’s at the top of your list and it might be worth spending the money on him to make sure I can either use him or make him available via trade. Hmm…

[Trebro]

Your logic above is why I signed Anderson to a long-term deal that I felt was fair value for a guy who will hopefully kick around the 2 WAR mark. just not anything immediately available I'd be willing to trade for.

[RonCo]

Well, after reading this article, maybe I should change my stance on the article I just wrote and resign Dennis Armitage after all. He’s at the top of your list and it might be worth spending the money on him to make sure I can either use him or make him available via trade. Hmm…

Armitage is another case of the weirds. His 1.9 WAR last year is a career high by a wide margin.

[indiansfan]

Thanks for boosting Torres' price!

[RonCo]

Well, maybe I'm wrong?

[Jwalk100]

Sanchez is 31 but still has something left in the tank. Gato is our guy waiting in the wings like Sanchez was for Lucchesi.

[BaseClogger]

Cobble Hill and Twin Cities are hogging em all. The third guy listed for SFB is just a guy I claimed off waivers the last week of the year from CBH lol

[Chuck V]

I had to pay for Jerry Woodall, but his 10+ ZR is what I was paying for, not his Mendoza line batting average.

[R.Umali]

Dan Morris saw this article and now refuses to negotiate with me.

[RonCo]

My work here is done!

Quickly heads off to prep offer...

[shoeless.db]

Great stuff. Interesting addition: Valencia just traded a half a tuna sandwich (diagonal cut) for Bob Park. I’ve decide to roll with the platoon of Rooney/Ledezma.

Rooney could be had for that 55pot guy in AA, though.

[RonCo]

I would still play my 8 range, Ramon Sanz over the guys on the list.

[recte44]

Great stuff. Interesting addition: Valencia just traded a half a tuna sandwich (diagonal cut) for Bob Park. I’ve decide to roll with the platoon of Rooney/Ledezma.

Rooney could be had for that 55pot guy in AA, though.

One time Hustlers prospect in Ledezma, who I foolishly traded for Peter Ramsey.

[ae37jr]

There are 12 Nine range CF in free agency and 21 currently eligible for rule 5 draft if anyone is looking for one.

[JRamirez]

There are 12 Nine range CF in free agency and 21 currently eligible for rule 5 draft if anyone is looking for one.

there, they are not all that scarce if you really want one
a lot of em can't hit past Single-A level

[RonCo]

Yeah. I think that's the point of this piece. At some point you're better off fielding an 8 who can hit, or maybe even a 7 who can _really_ hit.

[RonCo]

The optics can be bad, but the results are probably better.