2064: A Look at the Opt Out Crowd: Pitchers

[Trebro]

2064 A Look at the Opt Out Crowd: Pitchers

Whelp, we've looked at the batters, so here come the hurlers. I had a great time in 2062 figuring out what they'd do, but 2063 saw me come up with a middling record, getting 2 right and 2 wrong, and since one of those was a no-brainer, I feel like it was more of a negative year for me. The problem is pitching is really, really unpredictable in OOTP right now. That makes trying to figure out what the game thinks about the players even harder than usual, at least for me.

Or maybe I just suck at evaluating pitching. My BBA record suggests the latter. At any rate, let's get started after some obligatory housekeeping:

2062: 5-2
2063: 2-2

SP Luis Gonzáles, Montreal
Age: 34
2064 Stats of Note: 14-12, 3.25 ERA, 229.2 IP (leader), 37 Starts (leader), 160K, 1.25 WHIP, 97 FIP-, 4.6 rWAR
If Opts In: 12.6 Million (2065) and 12.6 Million (2066)

Okay, so here we are again with a no-brainer decision. Gonzales is not going to accept 25x2 when he's easily going to be one of, if not THE best free agent starting pitcher available. This assumes that Montreal does not re-sign him, which I am sure Erik would love to do, except for that pesky little salary cap. The Blazers are up tight against it right now and would have to make major adjustments to accommodate a man who I expect is going to want 5x75, maybe even 5x100, and could get move (averaged out) if a team like, oh, Yellow Springs, goes and does a heavily front-loaded contract.

(Do not take that last sentence as any kind of a hint. I am generally allergic to pitchers over 33.)

Now there are some things to be concerned about for his new employer: Erik has worked him to the extreme the last two seasons, with a total of 464.1 innings logged over 63/64. He's an iron man, yes, but it just takes one bad throw for a guy who will be entering his late thirties by year 3 of any deal to blow himself out and blow a hole in carefully crafted post-season plans. His walks were up and his strikeouts were down. He's not much of a groundball pitcher (hovers around 48%) and his FIP- is only a bit better than average, sitting at 94 for his career.

All that said, he's opting out. And he's gonna get paid. Probably not by Montreal, though.

It's almost certain Gonzales OPTS OUT.

SP David Molina, Nashville
Age: 30
2064 Stats of Note Roswell: 6-8, 4.63 ERA, 12 starts, 1.30 WHIP, 92Ks, 100 FIP-, 0.4 rWAR
2064 Stats of Note Nashville: 6-1, 2.45 ERA, 10 starts, 0.82 WHIP, 69K, 87 FIP-, 2.8 rWAR
If Opts In: 15.2 Million (2065), 25.2 Million (2066), and 25.2 Million (2067)

I split out Molina's stats between Rosenblatt and Nashville to show how much of a difference the team around you can make. On a mediocre to bad team, he had good stats for a bad team – ERA in the 4 range, an okay WHIP of 1.30, and a literally average FIP-. Put him on the perennial Top Dog Bluebirds and he becomes an ACE, easily worth every penny of his contract. I found that extremely interesting because on the division winning Bombers squad of 2063, Molina's FIP- was 76 with an rWAR of 5.7. Was it just an early-season funk for a superstar? Or is there something in his code where he plays best with a winning team? No way to know, but if Molina does opt out, something to consider for teams who are looking to improve vs teams that are looking to take the next push.

But! The real question here is what will Molina do? If this were real life, I'd say he stays put and takes those elite paydays while chasing more rings. Especially since if he's still playing well at age 33 when this contract comes due, he's got a very good shot at one final big bag. On the other hand, he could get a five year deal now at 5x100 or higher, similar to Gonzales. Probably even a better deal than the elder pitcher, due to his age and ability. Despite the fragile tag, he's only missed 14 days in the past two seasons. On the proper workload, he's extremely manageable.

I'd be really curious to know what Chad would prefer. (Justin obviously is banking on an opt out.) Molina is amazing, but that's a lot of cap space in 66 and 67. I think the rest of the league would be happy in some sense if Molina opted in. This is a really hard call, there's advantages and disadvantages to the player either way. He's not greedy or I'd go straight to opt out. But even still, the chance to cash in now I think is going to be too tempting. If he was getting 25 million next season, I'd feel differently.

I think Molina OPTS OUT.

SPErik Brookss, Twin Cities
Age: 35
2064 Stats of Note: 12-12, 4 saves, 200.2 IP, 1.24 WAR, 150Ks, 90 FIP-, 2.4 rWAR
If Opts In: 12.6 Million (2065), 12.6 Million (2066), and 12.6 Million (2067, player option)

It wouldn't be one of these columns if we didn't have a River Monster to look at. This time, it's lifelong Twin Cities pitcherErik Brookss, who has amassed 149 wins for Alan. He's remarkably consistent, with only 4 of 14 seasons with less than a 3 WAR to end the year. He's about as steady as she goes and has the ability to get 37 or so million while remaining with the only team he's known.

But does that make sense for him? Would someone give Books a Brinks truck? He'll be 36 by the start of the 2065 season. That's going to be a caution. But he hasn't shown any signs of slipping, other than a little bit of a reduction in his k/9 ratio. He's also very durable. There's definitely a place for him in someone's rotation but I'm not sure he'd get more money than the 12.6 deal he's already on.

This is a hard call. I think he gets paid about the same either way. But given the limited free agents available, he might improve a little bit. He's loyal, though and I think that tips the sale.

I think Brooks OPTS IN.

So let's see how this goes. Two of these are really on the border for me. If I was writing this tomorrow, I might choose differently. Do you agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments.

[Bob Breum]

We would love for Luis to stick around but I fully expect him to opt out.

[Trebro]

We would love for Luis to stick around but I fully expect him to opt out.

If he opts in, I'm submitting a bug report.

[Dington]

Curious what Molina will do.

[ae37jr]

I think it's beneficial to us if Brooks opts out? I could then lock him up through his age 36-41 seasons, in which he'd probably take a much lower AAV. I don't mind overpaying him and Stone because they are faces of the franchise. But if he takes me to the woodshed, we technically don't need him and saving money would be beneficial to our current situation.

[BaseClogger]

Most interesting question in the piece is what would Nashville prefer with Molina? I agree, I'm hoping he opts in to watch Chad squirm. And by squirm I mean fleecing another team by trading them one of his other highly paid vets.

[Dington]

Most interesting question in the piece is what would Nashville prefer with Molina? I agree, I'm hoping he opts in to watch Chad squirm. And by squirm I mean fleecing another team by trading them one of his other highly paid vets.

I'm pretty sure I want to keep him, but not 100%. Will be fun to see how it plays out, but he played really well for us in his stint as a SP and more importantly stayed healthy. I can always afford to cut him if he goes down with a catastrophic injury or need the cap space. Especially on one of the off years where I don't spend on IFA.

[Dington]

Oh yeah I forgot Justin was covering 25% of his salary. Definitely hope Molina stays put.