Analysis of the First Round of the 2064 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This article analyzes the players in the first round of this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. This draft was approved by Jodie Foster, star of the movie “Contact,” as these guys light up the batting cages. Names should have been read by Jeremy Renner and Hailee Steinfeld, both Hawkeyes – these guys never miss. We could also have Will Smith, who was Deadshot in both Suicide Squads. Of course, then we’d be reminded that many of the contact hitters in this draft are also slap hitters, and then we’d be sued by Chris Rock. Personally, I’m looking forward to watching the 8mm in a couple decades on this one, since there look to be a lot of future major leaguers in this draft. Do not use as a best boy or a gaffer.



First Round Analysis:

1. SP Guillermo Gonzales (Long Beach): Second runner-up for the Fox Mulder last year, Gonzalez was by far the highest-ceiling starting pitcher in this draft class. His floor’s pretty good, too. The diminutive lefty (he’s just 5’ 9”, 164) packs a serious punch, hitting 100 on the gun with a very good fastball and reaching the 90s with his slider. Gonzalez still has a little work to do on his sinker and could improve his movement, but he’s going to come on fast. Long Beach, notorious for getting the most out of their arbitration players, appears to have the time to wait. Despite his velocity and his size, he has no injury history to speak of, and also has a killer work ethic.

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2. LF Bartolo Fernandez (Valencia): Fun fact, In the BBA, at all levels, there are about one hundred players with a contact potential of at least 8. There are twenty in this draft. The first one drafted was Fernandez, whose advanced development and superb contact bat make him an excellent choice for the Stars’ ballpark. Fernandez is not likely to ever hit twenty homers in a season, and he has just an average batting eye, but, come on, the guy hit .484 last year. He should be a perennial .300+ hitter in a game that had just nineteen of them last year. Fernandez has a few attitude issues to work through, but does keep himself in excellent physical shape.


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3. RP Tom Lefebvre (Madison): It’s interesting how many relievers go in the early first round now, which represents our desire for safety over chasing ceiling. That said, the franchise hasn’t had a winning record since 2054, so some ceiling might be in order. Back to the guy: the hard-throwing Canadian righty Lefebvre has the highest floor of any pitcher in this draft, and should arrive soon. He should be inexpensive for a top three pick and could be one of the top ten or so relievers in the league. He might get a spot start or two, even. Lefebvre’s sharp but his intangibles are mixed, so with some schooling he might be a good citizen.


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4. 3B/2B Roderick Hochstetler (Cobble Hill): A Bo Jordan second runner-up last year, Hochstetler is the sort of player who can help to turn a franchise around. The third baseman is a well-developed, switch-hitting infielder who makes good contact and has some pop. Probably significantly better at third base than second base, the 20-year-old nonetheless should be a productive pro, and soon. Cobble Hill was 30-19 at the time of writing this, and it is clear they’re building something.


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5. RP Vic Gordon (Yellow Springs): Aussie righty Gordon has one of the highest ceilings in this draft, though he will take a bit to get there. Just 19, Gordon already hits 98 on the gun and is close to major league quality against righties. Fully developed, Gordon would be a top five reliever, with incredible stuff and an almost magical ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Like Guillermo Gonzales, not a huge guy: he’s 5’10”, 171. Mixed intangibles, but a strong work ethic and easily educable.


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6. C David Lopez (New Orleans): Now, THERE’S some ceiling. Lopez is a switch-hitting catching prospect who already has a major-league batting eye and who could turn into the best Moneyball player in this draft. His defense is already major-league quality, but the nineteen-year-old has a lot of growing to do at the plate. Lopez keeps in excellent shape. Might expect this pick to be #7 next year, just because of the source.


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7. C Quentin Holder (Austin): Holder, the runner up for IFC Hitter of the year, doesn’t have the same sort of ceiling as David Lopez, picked right before him, but he is an interesting prospect. Like Lopez, Holder’s defense is already major league quality, but that’s where the comparison stops. A right-handed contact hitter with a little pop and great intangibles, Holder doesn’t project as a superstar but should be a ten year starter at the position if he develops. Like Lopez, he has a long way to go. This isn’t really a challenge situation as Lopez was much higher rated and should have been picked earlier, but it’s one to watch anyway.


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8. 2B Alfonso Mercado (San Antonio): When San Antonio takes a hitter, it makes sense to pay attention. Mercado is no different. The 19-year-old righty-hitting infielder won the Platinum Stick at shortstop, but his more likely position in the pros will be second base. Mercado could already slap around major league hitters, but as he grows he’ll be a potential batting champion with good doubles power and a little home run pop, too. He’s defensively mediocre, but his bat should more than make up for it. Good intangibles will help.


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9. LF/DH Hal Wu (Austin): Wu plays a more common position than Austin’s other first round pick, Quentin Holder, but there’s no question Wu is the higher ceiling prospect. Wu was the 2064 IFC Hitter of the Year, and is probably the best powerhitting prospect in this draft. Fully grown, the righty batter should have no serious weaknesses at the plate and could have an excellent batting eye. He’s got a long way to go, but if he gets there he should be very exciting.

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10. 2B/3B/1B Alfredo Hernandez (Brook Park): Hernandez is a very advanced infield prospect that might ultimately end up playing first base but is serviceable at the pivot. Hernandez has one of the higher contact/power potentials in this draft, makes consistent contact, and should draw enough walks to register there. The righty-hitting infielder is somewhat mediocre in the field, but if his bat plays well enough they will likely put up with his other things. Hernandez is a potential future captain and has no injury history to speak of.


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11. 2B/OF/UT Sigit Subagja (Cape Fear): The Filipino-American second sacker is a better and more versatile defensive player than Alfredo Hernandez, picked one spot ahead of him, but he doesn’t have Hernandez’ power. At the plate, the righty Subagja is the original Slapmaster, making superior contact with great english on the ball and rarely strikes out. However, he is likely to max out at ten home runs and only a few doubles, and he swings at everything. Subagja isn’t really defensively equipped to play shortstop but could probably fill in there, and should be solid at any of the corner positions too.

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12. RP Jose Falcones (Boise): Ending the run on top relievers, Falcones is a 17 year old lefty with a huge arm and a lot of potential. Falcones is probably already good enough to be a lefty one-out guy in the majors, and is well-developed for his age. However, he still has a long way to go to get to his ceiling. Fully developed he should be a top 10% reliever. Falcones doesn’t have any serious injuries in his past, but he does have a history of back spasms, so that’s something to watch.


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13. IF Doug Allen (Louisville): Allen continues this draft’s slap parade, as the righty-hitting middle infielder is yet another dink and dunk kinda fella. (I also recommend not being a spectator at the slap parade.) Allen is the worst defender of the three second basemen drafted from #10-13, but he does have the best batting eye of the bunch. I’m listing him as an infielder because there’s a real possibility he ends up at 1B, since he is a bit weak defensively but might have a big enough bat to play first. He’s intelligent and loyal, so should be a good soldier.


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14. SP/RP Bob Farthing (New Orleans): This is the one they have to sign or lose. Fortunately (unfortunately?) this was a characteristic autopick. Farthing is right now closer to tuppence, but perhaps he’ll be worth his pound weight soon. Honestly, I’ve missed players like Farthing, and not just because of his less-than Sterling reputation; he’s the classical “We’ll see if his changeup comes in” player. Not a ton of those lately. If it does he has way above average stuff and control for a starter and could be a good one. He’s 21 already, so he'd better get on that soon. A better work ethic might help.

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15. SP Bob Blackshear (Mexico City): Blackshear is the first recipient of the Clarence Oveur Award, given as necessary to the pitcher who is most highly rated that I just don’t get at all. Oveur was given a scout rating of 60 (now 55) with 6-5-6 ratings; Blackshear is at a 55. Oveur’s movement, notably, jumped two points within a year. It was potentially foreseeable with his HRA potential a 9, which does create a certain amount of interesting uncertainty amongst players. Anyway, that’s enough digression. Blackshear is a medium-velocity lefty that had a very strong college career. He is far enough along the developmental track that he’s not a total zero now, but needs to work on his command. Additional velocity would help him, as his fastball is just so-so. Blackshear has no notable injury history and solid intangibles.


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16. SP Jim Manley (Atlantic City): Manley is an interesting prospect from high school. The fragile righty blew out his arm in junior year, but came back the next year to look like an absolute stud in senior year. He’s just a raw 18 year old at this point that needs tons of work on his command, though not too much on his control or movement. Manley has a solid knowledge of the game, so maybe he can overcome his obvious warts.

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17. 3B/IF Mack McIntosh (Jacksonville): The Zombies’ highest pick in some time, McIntosh has a very high floor and possibly a high ceiling. The 2064 Bo Jordan Award winner hit a bananas .480 in his junior year and had almost four WAR in 40 games. McIntosh is potentially a very good righty contact hitter, though not the best in this class, with a decent amount of pop. McIntosh could already be a fifth infielder in the pros, but the Zombies are no doubt shooting for higher than that. Excellent intangibles and a light injury history should help.

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18. RP/SP Tony Morales (Vancouver): Morales is an interesting pitcher, to say the least. He’s a high-floor, soft-tossing, lefty pitcher that could probably pitch to contact in the pros tomorrow, if that’s what the team was searching for. However, his stuff is so underdeveloped for his age (22) that he’s not really ready for the majors. If his command comes on quickly, he could be a quality starting pitcher. Morales is not considered an injury-prone player, but he has had several day-to-day issues with his legs and core.

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19. RPIvan Villareal (Chicago): I have to admit that I’m baffled by the way scouts have rated Ivan Villareal, who has a potential of 11 stuff and has seemingly hit his ceiling on both his excellent cutter and excellent curveball, yet is only rated as an 8 stuff. Make it make sense! Last year’s CCAS MLN Reliever of the Year, Villareal is a very hard thrower who needs to improve his movement a little bit. He might always walk a few too many batters, but he should be a high-strikeout lefty. A future captain – maybe a future Players Union President, if they ever form one – Villareal has a great attitude and should be a bulldog on the mound.

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20. RP Bill Perez (Phoenix): Maybe the most major-league ready pitcher in this draft, last year’s CCAS Reliever of the Year might hit the Phoenix bullpen quickly, if the Toledo Liberty can spare him. Phoenix does have the #1 bullpen ERA in the JL, so they might not, too. Perez comes fully formed, with a strong fastball/curveball combo and solid peripheral ratings. He’s not the most durable pitcher and has had a history of shoulder injuries, always a concern with any pitcher, but if he doesn’t blow out his arm he should be a very helpful addition to any stable of pitchers.

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21. IF/OF Pablo Rodriguez (Rosenblatt): Rodriguez is listed as a shortstop, but he can play most positions well. Scouts aren’t particularly high on the 19 year old and he didn’t particularly distinguish himself last year in college. However, he should have a solid switch-hitting bat and make consistent contact with a fair amount of pop for a middle infielder. Rosenblatt could really use infielders at any position, and I would expect him to eventually land at second base. Has no injury history, but may be injury-prone.


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22. 3B/1B Luis Cortez (Bikini): Bikini is near the bottom of the BBA in a number of offensive metrics this season, and could really use a guy who could just plain hit. Sadly, Cortez is not that guy yet, even at 21 years old, but he has a lot of upside. Another solid contact bat with some pop from the right hand side of the plate, Cortez will likely be shifted over to first base, where he should be an excellent defender. He doesn’t have a great batting eye and he’s not fast, but he should be a productive pro.


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23. RP Juan Ayala (Portland): Ayala is a classical ceiling pick. The 19 year old is underdeveloped for his age, but if he reaches his ceiling he should be a very solid lefty reliever. Working with a potentially excellent fastball/change combo, Ayala at his peak should strike out a lot of batters and have a knack for keeping the ball in the ballpark, though he may be a little wild. Good intangibles should help.


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24. DH Frank Binning (Calgary): Binning is never going to be a great defensive player, but there’s a good chance he was the best remaining pure hitter in the draft. Binning had a tremendous high school career, posting excellent numbers in each season. The lefty batter doesn’t have any serious major league skills yet, but fully developed he should be a solid contact/power player with a big platoon factor, the sort of player who should get 450 really solid at bats. Mixed intangibles, but a little schooling would go a long way with Binning.

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25. OF Jarlath Rutledge (San Fernando): Ruttledge might be the best two-way outfield prospect in this draft, which in part says more about the draft than it does Ruttledge, whose defense is solid if unspectacular. Most players so far were either not good fielders in the outfield at all or infielders. But the lefty-hitting Rutledge, who is still an extremely raw player at 19 years old, has one of the highest power potentials in this draft and should make a solid outfielder. His contact will be inconsistent but acceptable, he has a solid batting eye and he’s relatively fast on the basepaths. Right now he’s showing no platoon factor, but he might end up struggling against solid lefties.


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26. SP/RP Dave Heyer (Des Moines): Heyer didn’t win any awards in high school, but he had a great senior year and potentially looks the part of a future starting BBA pitcher. Leading with a solid fastball that looks projectible, Heyer could end up as a reliever based on how his offspeed stuff progresses, especially considering he may be a little bit homer-prone. He does have some holes; he has bad luck with hit baseballs and is still very raw at a young 18 years old, but Heyer looks like he should be a solid mid-rotation starter. Good intangibles will help.


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27. 2B/OF? Norm Kissel (Hawaii): This draft is like someone made a slap bet and had to put fifteen slap hitters into the first round. Kissel profiles as yet another slap hitter, a player very unlikely to hit many home runs or draw many walks but should play decent defense and make excellent, consistent contact when fully grown. He could already hit major league pitching at age 19, but he’ll need some time to develop. Not great defensively yet, but may grow into it. He should also be able to play the outfield eventually.


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28. 2B Bob James (Las Vegas): James is not as slap-happy as the other slap-happier players in this slap-happy slapfest (SLAP!) but he’s still slaptastic. James has a lot of growing to do still at 19 years old, but once he does, he should be able to make consistent contact and has a little more of a batting eye and pop than some of the other slaparific slaptastics in this draft. He fell because he doesn’t find the holes in the defense quite as well as the others, but his defense is a little better than most of them.


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29. 2B Pablo Garcia (Charlotte): Garcia is a middle infielder too, but he’s not at all a slap hitter. Right now he’s a raw 19 year old. However, fully developed, the switch-hitting second sacker should be able to make solid contact at the plate with good pop for a middle infielder and a decent batting eye. The Dominican native might not be as consistent as the other players drafted ahead of him, but he has a chance to be the most productive amongst them.


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30. 2B Carlos Deleon (Sacramento): Deleon is another member of the Secret Linedrive Action Players: the Men of S.L.A.P. Deleon is slappier than some of the other slappies, with basically no home run power and a minimal batting eye but lots of potential contact goodness, albeit with worse luck than some of the earlier drafted S.L.A.Ps. His defense could also use some work. Good intangibles will help.


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31. SP Lonnie Krant (Montreal): This pick looked a lot better a week ago, I’m sure: Krant is now out until well into next year with a torn UCL. Krant had a fantastic one-year college career and finished second in the voting for IFC Pitcher of the Year. Assuming he comes back whole, the righty starter is a high-endurance righty who hits the mid-90s with his cutter. None of his stuff was overwhelming before the injury, and he’s just 19, so maybe he can bounce back from this one. Big bummer for the Blazers, though.


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32. IF/OF Joaquin Torres (Twin Cities): Torres is a versatile young righty batter whose pro position is probably second base, if he makes it that far. Almost 21 years old, Torres is a bit behind the developmental curve for his skillset, especially needing to work on his consistency, though most of his offensive game could use work. He is somewhat solid in the field, however, and may be able to make it as a utility infielder even if he doesn’t get everything. Torres does keep in top shape and has excellent intangibles, so he has a solid chance to make it in some capacity.


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33. OF Raul Castro (Charm City): Castro had a very undistinguished single season in college, but impressed at the combine enough that he got a first round scouting tag. The Domincan is a long way from the majors, but he could definitely be a starting outfielder once he get there. Castro is a balanced, switch-hitting outfielder who already plays left field adequately enough for the majors. Fully developed, he’d be speedy with decent power, especially to the gaps.

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34. C Jose Gomez (Nashville): Gomez is never going to be a consistent baseball player, but when he’s not swinging and missing, he’s swinging and watching the ball fly over the fence. Seventeen year old Gomez is a long way from the majors, but already has major league power and should work a lot of deep counts, with a decent batting eye and a propensity to whiff. Glimmers of Diesel Dave, perhaps, though Dave was a good fielder and a lefty, and Gomez is a righty. A good project to have, probably.


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35. 3B/1B Keith Topper (Mexico City): Topper should make a very nice first baseman defensively, and he may have the bat to stick there. A switch-hitting eighteen year old, Topper appears to be the sort of player who hits better against lefties while giving up very little against righties, always a plus. Fully developed, he should make consistent contact while posting a solid number of home runs. Mixed intangibles can be fixed.


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36. SP Claudio Sanchez (Las Vegas): Sanchez is a seventeen year old righty starter who had an excellent four-year high school career. He is advanced for his age, though he still has a long way to go to reach his full potential. Sanchez throws in the mid-90s with a fastball/slider/changeup combination, and both the offspeed pitches may turn into out pitches as he matures. No serious red flags anywhere, and decent intangibles.


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[BaseClogger]

Off Topic

Honestly, I’ve missed players like Farthing, and not just because of his less-than Sterling reputation; he’s the classical “We’ll see if his changeup comes in” player. Not a ton of those lately.

Endorse

[BaseClogger]

Villarreal doesn’t have nearly enough financial ambition for a future union president.

[aaronweiner]

Villarreal doesn’t have nearly enough financial ambition for a future union president.

I imagine him selfless with his time. But that's a fair point.

[Trebro]

Excellent work as always!

Caleca, so that when I search in off season i remember to include this one

[BaseClogger]

These are always great but it feels like you had even more fun writing this time around. It comes thru to the reader. Thanks for putting it together.

[aaronweiner]

These are always great but it feels like you had even more fun writing this time around. It comes thru to the reader. Thanks for putting it together.

j

This is always fun to write.

[lordtoffee]

Well done Aaron. This is always one of my favorite articles every year.

[cheekimonk]

I think Allen (#13 - Louisville) could convert to a 3B or corner OF as an alternate to 1B

[trmmilwwi]

Awesome feature, always love this!!

[aaronweiner]

I think Allen (#13 - Louisville) could convert to a 3B or corner OF as an alternate to 1B

He’s got the wrong parameters to play third, but I imagine it would be fine. He’s probably fine in the OF.

[neugey]

I will read later today. Bookmarked for future observation (like if I write my 10-year draft rewind down the road for 2064!)

Pro-tip: the wrench in the forums has a Bookmark feature, will learn to use that more.

[chicoruiz]

Thanks for doing this, Aaron. I know it takes a lot of work n your part, and it pays off.

[BaseClogger]

I think Allen (#13 - Louisville) could convert to a 3B or corner OF as an alternate to 1B

Corner OF for sure. 5 arm isn't much for third base.

[JRamirez]

Love it. One of the best things around. Thanks.

[jiminyhopkins]

Villarreal doesn’t have nearly enough financial ambition for a future union president.

LOL no one becomes a union officer to make money haha. We actually lose a significant amount and most of our time is unpaid.

But I would NEVER be a president, too many complainers. I just write the checks and control the treasury

[neugey]

My goodness, these slap-hitters ... will the 2070's be full-on smallball?

[BaseClogger]

Villarreal doesn’t have nearly enough financial ambition for a future union president.

LOL no one becomes a union officer to make money haha. We actually lose a significant amount and most of our time is unpaid.

But I would NEVER be a president, too many complainers. I just write the checks and control the treasury

I guess it depends how you interpret that attribute. I agree, for smaller unions that's the case. For your really big unions that's basically a political position and it's filled by ambitious people. At the end of the day, they still need financial ambition for their group even if not for themselves individually.

[BaseClogger]

My goodness, these slap-hitters ... will the 2070's be full-on smallball?

I think it's balancing out last years draft which was filed with guys who had 9 potential PWR and 3 potential AVK. Feel like I got a leftover from last year's class.

[Bob Breum]

My goodness, these slap-hitters ... will the 2070's be full-on smallball?

I think it's balancing out last years draft which was filed with guys who had 9 potential PWR and 3 potential AVK. Feel like I got a leftover from last year's class.

We're starting one of those guys at catcher already; Luis Campos had three years of college. We just moved our 2063 first round pick, Ji-hoon Tokko, up to single-A. He was drafted out of high school.

We also have Bryan Burgoin, a 2062 pick, who matches your description. Another high school kid, he's now destroying AA pitching when he's not striking out.

I love these guys. Please send me all your 9 potential PWR and 3 potential AVK prospects.