2061 - A Good Shortstop is Hard to Find

[Bob Breum]

Given my frustration at my perceived scarcity of shortstops in this league, I thought I’d see if the numbers back up my perception. Here are the 47 players who are assigned the position of shortstop who started at least 30 games in the BBA in 2060. Caveat: Some players may have played 30 or more games at shortstop but do not have their position set as shortstop and thus will not appear on this list. Others may appear on this list but actually made some or all of their starts at other positions.


Shortstops Who Started At Least 30 Games

Name	IF RNG	IF ERR	IF ARM	TDP	SS Pot	GS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR	RNG	ZR
Badr Isam	9	11	9	10	10	140	0.331	0.356	0.487	130	6.2	5.34	11.5
Brooks Eliot	9	10	9	11	10	149	0.353	0.357	0.505	133	6	4	3.9
Sammy McNeill	10	10	11	10	11	104	0.294	0.361	0.447	119	4.8	4.71	10.7
Qutuz Mahdi	10	8	10	10	10	142	0.265	0.342	0.388	93	4.5	4.83	18.6
Lúcio Guevara	10	8	8	8	9	148	0.266	0.302	0.438	92	3.3	4.62	10.6
Keith Williams	9	10	8	10	10	105	0.277	0.356	0.403	106	2.8	4.68	4.6
Steveland Morris	9	8	9	9	9	96	0.266	0.32	0.367	86	2.4	4.61	6.7
Richard Vernon	7	10	7	9	8	147	0.298	0.343	0.375	93	2.3	4.28	-5.8
Julius Lewis	10	10	10	8	10	145	0.209	0.279	0.262	49	2.1	4.79	23
Jorge Madrid	10	9	7	8	9	132	0.233	0.32	0.323	75	1.5	4.62	5.9
Carlos Gutiérrez	7	5	10	10	7	40	0.301	0.335	0.488	119	1.3	4.32	0.5
Daniel Kenner	9	10	10	10	11	139	0.249	0.267	0.301	57	0.9	4.39	8.3
Pedro Gongora	10	9	7	9	9	123	0.196	0.294	0.309	66	0.9	4.32	4.7
José Villa	9	10	8	9	9	148	0.224	0.278	0.282	62	0.7	4.87	11
Ayyad Faisal	8	10	10	10	10	136	0.22	0.277	0.329	66	0.7	4.62	9.3
Billy McKay	5	10	8	10	7	68	0.299	0.34	0.405	104	0.7	4.41	-9.2
Asil Çölasan	8	7	8	7	7	109	0.262	0.336	0.383	93	0.7	3.94	-14.7
Elvan Masûkî	10	11	7	10	10	148	0.228	0.292	0.272	51	0.6	4.75	11.2
Ken Proctor	10	10	8	11	10	65	0.213	0.254	0.329	54	0.6	4.58	8.7
Dan Raymond	10	10	9	9	11	150	0.202	0.265	0.258	44	0.5	4.63	17.5
Yazeed bin Saleem	7	8	7	8	7	39	0.24	0.31	0.34	87	0.4	4.4	-0.6
Tyler Conklin	10	9	7	10	10	130	0.257	0.265	0.324	61	0.3	4.96	8.8
Jafar Seif al Din	9	8	10	8	9	71	0.215	0.287	0.304	61	0.3	4.62	6.2
Matthew Hewat	6	7	8	8	6	52	0.311	0.321	0.443	106	0.3	4.35	-4.6
Loo Yang	9	7	9	6	7	32	0.25	0.308	0.293	60	0.2	4.58	1.7
John Jowers	9	8	6	10	8	40	0.19	0.227	0.364	64	0.2	5.09	0
Janne Rintala	7	10	7	10	8	147	0.236	0.312	0.353	80	0.2	4.35	-7.6
Edmond Spits	10	10	8	8	10	50	0.237	0.259	0.27	43	0	5.03	3.4
Miguel De La Cruz	7	10	10	10	9	98	0.209	0.232	0.339	59	-0.2	4.57	-2.9
Larry Barkin	6	7	9	7	6	40	0.219	0.311	0.306	69	-0.2	4.19	-3.7
Quintin Trewartha	9	10	9	11	10	108	0.202	0.235	0.261	34	-0.4	4.47	9
Tristan Colenutt	9	9	8	8	9	74	0.201	0.238	0.245	34	-0.5	4.79	5.9
António Martínez	8	9	4	9	7	75	0.235	0.291	0.357	74	-0.5	4.49	-2.8
Juan Flores	8	10	9	10	9	68	0.189	0.236	0.244	28	-0.6	4.8	3.6
Aniruddha Meenakshisundaram	8	8	9	6	7	60	0.226	0.277	0.299	64	-0.6	4.13	-3
Will Lee	8	10	7	10	9	77	0.206	0.246	0.281	44	-0.7	4.51	-2.9
Roberto López	9	7	7	7	7	119	0.239	0.268	0.345	64	-0.7	4.1	-6.5
Martin Potter	8	6	6	8	6	43	0.229	0.294	0.354	77	-0.7	3.94	-8.6
Stewart Turton	4	7	5	7	3	54	0.28	0.296	0.403	83	-0.7	4	-11.9
Francisco García	8	11	10	10	10	103	0.153	0.242	0.194	22	-0.8	4.69	4.6
Augusto Vargas	7	10	10	10	9	86	0.192	0.287	0.237	45	-1	4.48	-1
Kelsey Perry	10	10	9	9	10	119	0.199	0.203	0.228	18	-1.1	4.51	12.6
Marcello Custello	3	7	4	7	1	54	0.245	0.26	0.347	61	-1.1	5.09	-4.2
Juan Féliz	7	9	11	10	8	93	0.222	0.249	0.272	40	-1.4	4.6	-6.1
Luis Rayford	8	11	6	10	8	44	0.13	0.168	0.176	-7	-1.9	3.92	-4.7
Will Patterson	8	9	10	10	9	151	0.165	0.237	0.314	47	-1.9	4.38	-9.4
Tareef Abdul-Malik	8	10	7	10	9	65	0.099	0.113	0.133	-33	-3.2	4.69	-7.4

There are 28 who accrued positive WAR. Of these, six of them had negative zone ratings, five of them significantly negative.

Name	IF RNG	IF ERR	IF ARM	TDP	SS Pot	GS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR	RNG	ZR
Richard Vernon	7	10	7	9	8	147	0.298	0.343	0.375	93	2.3	4.28	-5.8
Billy McKay	5	10	8	10	7	68	0.299	0.34	0.405	104	0.7	4.41	-9.2
Asil Çölasan	8	7	8	7	7	109	0.262	0.336	0.383	93	0.7	3.94	-14.7
Matthew Hewat	6	7	8	8	6	52	0.311	0.321	0.443	106	0.3	4.35	-4.6
Janne Rintala	7	10	7	10	8	147	0.236	0.312	0.353	80	0.2	4.35	-7.6

On the other hand, there were five who had negative WAR despite good zone ratings. Their OPS+ are brutal:

Name	IF RNG	IF ERR	IF ARM	TDP	SS Pot	GS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR	RNG	ZR
Kelsey Perry	10	10	9	9	10	119	0.199	0.203	0.228	18	-1.1	4.51	12.6
Quintin Trewartha	9	10	9	11	10	108	0.202	0.235	0.261	34	-0.4	4.47	9
Tristan Colenutt	9	9	8	8	9	74	0.201	0.238	0.245	34	-0.5	4.79	5.9
Francisco García	8	11	10	10	10	103	0.153	0.242	0.194	22	-0.8	4.69	4.6
Juan Flores	8	10	9	10	9	68	0.189	0.236	0.244	28	-0.6	4.8	3.6

There were 23 who started more than 100 games. Fifteen of these players had both positive WAR and positive ZR.

Name	IF RNG	IF ERR	IF ARM	TDP	SS Pot	GS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR	RNG	ZR
Dan Raymond	10	10	9	9	11	150	0.202	0.265	0.258	44	0.5	4.63	17.5
Brooks Eliot	9	10	9	11	10	149	0.353	0.357	0.505	133	6	4	3.9
Lúcio Guevara	10	8	8	8	9	148	0.266	0.302	0.438	92	3.3	4.62	10.6
José Villa	9	10	8	9	9	148	0.224	0.278	0.282	62	0.7	4.87	11
Elvan Masûkî	10	11	7	10	10	148	0.228	0.292	0.272	51	0.6	4.75	11.2
Julius Lewis	10	10	10	8	10	145	0.209	0.279	0.262	49	2.1	4.79	23
Qutuz Mahdi	10	8	10	10	10	142	0.265	0.342	0.388	93	4.5	4.83	18.6
Badr Isam	9	11	9	10	10	140	0.331	0.356	0.487	130	6.2	5.34	11.5
Daniel Kenner	9	10	10	10	11	139	0.249	0.267	0.301	57	0.9	4.39	8.3
Ayyad Faisal	8	10	10	10	10	136	0.22	0.277	0.329	66	0.7	4.62	9.3
Jorge Madrid	10	9	7	8	9	132	0.233	0.32	0.323	75	1.5	4.62	5.9
Tyler Conklin	10	9	7	10	10	130	0.257	0.265	0.324	61	0.3	4.96	8.8
Pedro Gongora	10	9	7	9	9	123	0.196	0.294	0.309	66	0.9	4.32	4.7
Keith Williams	9	10	8	10	10	105	0.277	0.356	0.403	106	2.8	4.68	4.6
Sammy McNeill	10	10	11	10	11	104	0.294	0.361	0.447	119	4.8	4.71	10.7

With 32 teams looking for an answer at shortstop, this leaves most of them on the outside looking in. Some of us have settled for good defense at the expense of weak hitting; others have opted for decent offense at the expense of ugly glovework. If you have a shortstop who can do both, count your blessings.

[lordtoffee]

Very interesting feature, Bob.

That's why I went with Garcia in free agency at the risk of not having a lot of offense. It's been no secret that I needed to get better defense.

[BaseClogger]

Thank you for Mahdi.

[ae37jr]

I was hoping to write a tn on Kelsey Perry when I had the chance. But oh well, may as well give it away here as it expands on one of your points.

Over the next 4 seasons Mahdi makes $48 million while Kelsey Perry makes $2 mil(league min). Pound for pound they are similar defense. You want to say one is a little better than the other, fine. But they are same tier.

So that means I have an extra $11.5 million a season plus the prospects you gave up to get Mahdi to spread across the rest of the team to make up that offense.

Not saying I wouldn't want Mahdi over Perry, but in building a team of 27 with a salary cap, I think going all defense at one position is a.smart play. In fact, I kind of wish Ed Rooney wasn't a good hitter so I could sign him to a similar extension.

[BaseClogger]

The approximately 6 extra wins in 2060 Mahdi gave me with the bat over Perry are *incredibly* valuable because only a few players in the league can do that from that position. I’ll pay $12M per season for those 6 wins all day.

Perry stinks.

[Jwalk100]

SS are unobtanium.

[ae37jr]

The approximately 6 extra wins in 2060 Mahdi gave me with the bat over Perry are *incredibly* valuable because only a few players in the league can do that from that position. I’ll pay $12M per season for those 6 wins all day.

Perry stinks.

When comparing apples to apples Mahdi is light years better. But if your making an apple pie, you can get away with using great value apples if allows you to splurge on some ice cream and caramel to put on top.

[RonCo]

I took Bob's data and plotted each player's ZR vs. OPS+. Only five guys had positive ZR and OPS+ above league average.

Perhaps of equal or more interest, 18 were negative in both.

2060-SS-ZR-vs-OPSPlus.PNG (12.46 KiB) Viewed 3599 times

[BaseClogger]

When comparing apples to apples Mahdi is light years better. But if your making an apple pie, you can get away with using great value apples if allows you to splurge on some ice cream and caramel to put on top.

Perry was -1.1 WAR. If Mahdi is ice cream then Perry is rancid sweetened frozen dairy product.

[BaseClogger]

I took Bob's data and plotted each player's ZR vs. OPS+. Only five guys had positive ZR and OPS+ above league average.

Perhaps of equal or more interest, 18 were negative in both.


2060-SS-ZR-vs-OPSPlus.PNG

Since ZR is relative to position the chart would be more useful IMO if it used the average shortstop OPS+ as its baseline.

[RonCo]

Another quick cut -- WAR vs. ZR

2060-SS-WAR-ZR.PNG (13.45 KiB) Viewed 3578 times

[RonCo]

Six or seven guys were negative ZR, but positive WAR. Depending on how much you trust WAR (and OOTP WAR at that), this says a little.

[JimBob2232]

That’s why I grabbed McLeod in rule 5. At least his defense should be good - and a low .220 bat will be about all star level. lol.

[Bob Breum]

Six or seven guys were negative ZR, but positive WAR. Depending on how much you trust WAR (and OOTP WAR at that), this says a little.

I think two things can be true. 1) The player's offensive contribution is sufficient to overcome his defensive shortcomings in regards to individual WAR. 2) Team defense suffers, pitchers have to get more outs, the pen has to throw more innings, and Runs Allowed goes up. Of course, this is much harder to measure.

I think the natural impulse is to admire a good hitter at the position for his OPS and overlook the gradual accumulation of negative ZR. The former is immediately apparent from Opening Day, whereas the counting stat of ZR builds over time and isn't in your face on the team's home page like batting average is. If you have a defensive wizard batting below the Mendoza Line, that is difficult to look at day in and day out.

Up the middle, I prefer the glove first guys if I can't have both. Your mileage may vary.

[RonCo]

In the end, it probably does come down to outs created vs. outs made. For every bit of wear and tear a great defender saves on their staff, a poor hitter also saves that wear and tear on the opponent's staff. And vice versa.

At the end of the day it comes down to how outs created vs. outs made convert into wins and losses.

[RonCo]

Just taking my Bikini team and the BIZ I keep...while Keith Williams had a nice ZR, he was hurt for basically two months. When I add up all the ground balls hit in zones the shortstop has some contribution to, and tabulate Bikini's shortstops vs. the League's shortstops, I get:

	GB	Outs	Out%
BIK	757	578	76.35%
LG	25056	19457	77.65%

So, Krill shortstops were about 1.3% worse than league average on the season. Doing the math, if the Krill had fielded at league average, we would have converted 587 ground balls into outs that we did not. So, to be league average in outs we would need our shortstops to make at least 10 fewer outs with the bat (hence create more wear and tear on the other team's pitching staff than on ours) in order to break even.

This is a little bit swayed by the fact that a majority of GB "outs not made" are singles, whereas a SS hitter's extra outs made could be replaced with extra base hits (Run-ming Gui was our eventual mainstay at SS just for the bat). So if he hits a couple homers, but a few less singles, that's probably a fair tradeoff.

[RonCo]

San Fernando's Zimmer Winning Qutuz Mahdi and his backups did this:

	GB	Outs	Out%
SFB	784	632	80.61%
LG	25056	19457	77.65%

The same math says a league average SS would have converted 608 of SFB's 784 grounders into outs, so SFB's SS 24 outs better than average. Mahdi is not at bad hitter. He turned a 93 OPS+ at least. So less than league average, but not horrible. He slashed: .265/.342/.398

If he had converted 24 more of his AB into hits, his average and OBP would have been:

AVG: .308
OBP: .369
SLG: .432 (assuming all extra hits are singles)

This raw math would say that if you can find a shortstop that can do a league average 0 Zone rating, and can slash .308/.369/.432, then you've probably got a guy who provides Mahdi value. ????

[JimSlade]

Richard Vernon only played about 45 games at SS for me. He mainly plays 2B. His WAR would have been better if I could keep him there. The prospects are bleak for finding a decent SS this offseason. I may promote a kid way ahead of schedule who can at least field the position, even if he hits .150.

[DaveB]

I had Vineyard and Martinez at SS last year neither were good defensively, but at least Vineyard posted a 1.1 WAR. I’m putting Darvell and Garcia through training at SS this offseason I’m hoping at least one can gain some traction defensively to be even ZR.