Analysis of the First Round of the 2059 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This article will analyze this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. I should add that I know a little less this year than I have known in the past, which I chalk up to some combination of senility and endless games of miniature golf on my phone. Don’t laugh – in 2059 I’m 80 years old, and I really HAVE been playing too much miniature golf. It’s in my dreams, along with distant memories of grunge and how much better Fruit by the Foot used to be. Not that I can eat it with dentures. Remember, people, we know this new normal is good because all the 6-6-6 players are imbued with demonic energy, and who wouldn’t want that? Bonus feature this year: I have more references to Egypt than Brandon Fraser has had in his whole life. Apologies to the Cairo Pharaohs. Do not use as a neural implant.

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First Round Analysis:

1. SP Jose Torres (Brooklyn): As a thought experiment, transplant Torres into a decent historical draft, say, in Thebes, and he would not have likely been the consensus and obvious #1 overall pick but surely would have been a top ten pick looking exactly like this. Anyone who fits this description at this point in history is an absolute stud, if you need to start reorienting your thinking. Despite not one of his pitches having become an out pitch yet, southpaw Torres could probably be close to an average pitcher in the majors tomorrow based on his well-refined skillset. Fully developed, Torres could be the 60’s answer to Alaric Wullenweber. Absolutely a superb prospect in every way and a hard worker to boot.

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2. 2B Javier Aguilar (Atlantic City): Aguilar was the highest rated hitter in the draft, a five-tool, seven-skill middle infielder who won the Platinum Stick at 2B last year and finished third in IFC Hitter of the Year voting. The High Priest of the Temple of Karnak would have probably drafted him in the top 15 given his multiple skills, but in 2059 he’s a potential star and a very obvious #2 pick. Aguilar is already well developed for his 19 years and fully developed might be the best middle infield powerhitter this side of Dave Ackerman. He won’t be great at anything, but he should be good across the board.

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3. LF/2B?Luis Rubio (Edmonton): At last, we start to get into the players we’re not all that sure about. Wait a second – it’s the #3 pick. Oh well. Rubio appears to be a solid, well-developed, right-handed hitter across the board, with above-average contact and power and an excellent batting eye. Rubio’s most valuable position is no doubt second base, which he will likely not play particularly well, but he might be an okay left fielder as well. Good intangibles, good fitness.

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4. SP Brent Chappel (Yellow Springs): Again, not for nothing, but this is basically one of the last few drafts we’ll be able to see the hieroglyphic versions of these players, what the ancient Egyptians might have thought they were worth, and based on that, Chappell is definitely a top five pick. Praise Amon Ra! Chappell might walk a few too many like Egyptians, but all those bazaar men down by the Nile ought to fall down like a domino. (If you have never read the lyrics to “Walk Like an Egyptian,” by the way, I recommend a stiff drink and a little warmup with Vogon poetry so that it still sounds good.) Good intangibles will help.
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5. SP John O’Leary (Portland): Another example of why we’ve all become Egyptologists, since the Library of Alexandria would have had a record of O’Leary landing somewhere between pick number 100 and 150. And they said it was a nonsense major! The former #18 pick by Phoenix in 2056, O’Leary has a longer amateur track record than most pitchers in any draft and it’s good/better/best, where his best was a Mike Swanson and a runner up in the Fox Mulder voting. Good stamina and a light injury history is a good match, and good intangibles will help.

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6. SP Paul Worboys (Bikini): Worboys is not a common name, and the most famous Worboys I’ll let you Google yourself – this is a family show. The runaway IFC Pitcher of the Year, this Australian righty appears to have average stuff for a major leaguer, but makes up for it by superior control and above-average movement. He needs to work on his command, but he is well developed for 18 years old and could come on quickly. Poor stamina a negative and he doesn’t throw hard, so we’ll see how well he translates.

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7. SP/RP Orlando Rubio (Chicago): By advanced stats, Rubio is one of the most successful pitchers in the college ranks in any of the Three Kingdoms (and maybe THE best), so there’s a little buzz here about the lefty. That said, scouts suggest that Rubio’s game is unlikely to be quite as dominant in the pros. A little short of that demonic energy I was talking about earlier, Rubio’s movement and control should be above average but he has just average stuff despite hitting 97 on the gun. Great intangibles and a scant injury history a plus.
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8. SP Ricardo Nystrom (Louisville): At last, we’ve reached our first “Brooklyn’s owner got drunk and drafted again down by the Nile” pick. Nystrom is in every way a skills pitcher: he’s an extreme groundballer, he has excellent movement for his age, and should be a good control pitcher, and got a nice upgrade after a huge 2058 high school season. Big problem will be an out pitch. Good durability and excellent intangibles should help.

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9. C Antonio Meadows (Rockville): It’s very rare that a player who is maybe the best pure hitter in the draft is a switch-hitting catcher with passable defense, but that’s a first rounder for sure. Meadows isn’t likely to win any Yogi Zimmers, but there’s a real chance that this 19 year old will win some Golden Bats at a tough position to get offensive help. Good intangibles will help.

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10. SS?/3B?/DH? Curt Holter (Madison): Before Holter got hurt last year, straining his back, the righty-hitting shortstop was on pace to put up some really historical offensive numbers, Pharaonic if you will. Seriously: at the time of his back injury, he was hitting .492 in 13 games with a .900 SLG. Holter is nowhere near this good, but he looks to be a solid infield bat for a long time. His fielding would be fine at third base but will be sketchy at shortstop.

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11. CF/OF Eric Owens (Hawaii): Owens had a good college career, but he’s got a while to go before he’s going to a productive pro. Owens is very toolsy, a powerhitting outfielder with excellent speed who is though he may still improve his batting eye. However, he is unlikely to ever be a high batting average player, just average from the right side of the plate with a tendency to strike out. He’s also probably not a center fielder, though he has the range to play there. Good intangibles will help.

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12. RF George Stickler (San Antonio): After watching a run on pitching and other teams take need-based position players, San Antonio swoops in and grabs the highest remaining hitter in the draft. Like Bastet, fully developed this cat would have also started in Egypt, which means he’s gonna be a really good player in the New Kingdom. Might be the best two-way outfielder in the draft. His name is kind of a misnomer as he’s not a stickler at all, with a low work ethic and poor leadership skills, but maybe they can fix him.

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13. SP/RP Ernesto Escalante (Valencia): Escalante was too talented to fall out of the first round, but Valencia has got themselves a serious attitude problem on their hands. Escalante is more dedicated to his craft than much of his personality would suggest, as he’s a skills-based pitcher without any outstanding stuff. The 16 year old also has a significant injury history and a history of outbursts. He’s also asking for the most money in the draft.

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14. 1B/DH Perry Taylor (Boise): Taylor is a righty-hitting Moneyball player with solid contact skills, above average power, and an excellent batting eye. So why didn’t he get taken earlier? Well, at 5’10”, 176 you’d think Taylor would be more adept in the field but nope – he’s just got no skills there. He isn’t going to be an outfielder unless something happens. But he could still be a good DH or 1B maybe.

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15. CF/LF Jose Bedriddin (Charlotte): Bedriddin will be much more valuable if he can stick at center field, but he has the bat to play left field. The college outfielder had an excellent junior year, and in the pros the switch-hitter projects to have an above-average contact bat with good pop, especially for a center fielder. If he doesn’t make it in center, he’d be an excellent defensive seven. Reasonably well developed for a college hitter, Bedriddin could come on fast if he can get up.

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16. SS Jorge Reyes (San Fernando): If you include Luis Rubio on the list, Reyes is the third good hit/mediocre field middle infielder drafted as we near the halfway point of the first round. Reyes is a really good looking hitter for a four or six and doesn’t look too bad at the hot corner, if that’s where he sticks. Might also be okay at first base or a corner outfield position. Good intangibles will help.
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17. OF Alfonso Flinn (Des Moines): Flinn is perhaps one of the most interesting tests post-New Kingdom as a player. When we were in the land of Egypt, we had a dream of a player who was fat with contact potential and who would make consistent contact, but also thinner with other skills, like batting eye, gap power, and power. Flinn is not Unem Ploid or Mynolri Gaajlimitz either, but he’s an interesting looking player and it will be interesting to see how he does as a pro since we don’t really know how this plays anymore. Has enough of a glove to stick in the outfield and okay intangibles.

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18. C Javier Otero (New Orleans): Even before Egypt, in the time of Mesopotamia, when the Tigris and the Euphrates ran free in the cradle of civilization, I remember a guy named John Sickels who used to talk about how hard it was to get a catcher to hit .270 for a season. That is Otero’s one identifiable skill. He should be an average defensive catcher and could hit .270 for his career, though he’s less than likely to hit a home run or draw a walk.

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19. SP Francisco Moreno (Phoenix): Moreno’s stamina is not outstanding, but that just means that he probably isn’t suitable for building Pyramids. As a pitcher, however, he has several virtues: he’s got a triple shot of that demonic energy but with better control, he’s well developed for 18 years old, and he’d make a good relief conversion if they needed to go that route. Additional velocity would help, as would additional stamina. He’s definitely not Jose Torres, but he’s the last pitcher who might be the second best pitcher in the draft.

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20. LF Benedict Daniel (Jacksonville): Daniel is another example of a player who might have been a third or fourth round pick in Egypt – second at best – and is more like a first round pick now. The lefty-hitting slugger has several virtues: he has a good platoon factor, a big, developed power bat, he’s defensively solid at either corner spot, and he has a way above average batting eye which translated into an obscene .466 OBP in his senior year. He’s a project but he’s a very interesting one.

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21. SP Zhi-huan Chew (Rocky Mountain): There’s no truth to the rumor that Zhi-huan is mostly entering the draft from Taiwan in order to market his eponymous tobacco product, but that’s something to Chew on. At any rate, Chew has a fantastic arm but a lot of question marks with his control. We do have some hieroglyphics and it’s possible that he’s got higher-end movement than we think. He’ll be an interesting one to watch. Best comparisons are Dave LaChance and Michael Richardson, which are not flattering comparisons.

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22. SP Henry Wemp (Mexico City): We start getting into the more sketchy picks of round 1 at this point. Wemp is a fairly uninspiring starting pitcher, leading with a first-pitch changeup and no apparent above-average talents, but he should be a serviceable #4/5 starter. Good intangibles might help.

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23. RP Bailey Greenway (Las Vegas): Greenway might have been a serviceable reliever in Heliopolis, which makes him a very interesting prospect these days. He’s got a big arm, hitting 96 on the gun at age 19, and additional velocity would probably help. He has multiple advantages: a great personality, superior fitness, and the outside possibility of becoming a starting pitcher with enough development.

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24. C Mitchell Goater (Vancouver): Mitchell is not the GOAT. He’s the GOATER! Goater is an interesting catching prospect: he had an incredible freshman year, winning the IFC Hitter of the Year Award with astonishing numbers. As he stands he might have been playable in Crocodilopis City, as a catcher, so he should be pretty good now. He’s above average across the board except for his batting eye, which is just average. Goater is a righty and he’s not a great defensive player, so there are some warts, but he should be a good offensive catcher.

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25. SP Roberto Gutierrez (Calgary): Gutierrez is a very raw four-pitch starter with a surprising repertoire for a high school pitcher: cutter/splitter/curve/change. Even more surprising: he hits 98 on the gun with the splitter. The righty is a little weak on skills, and he’s a long way away from anything. Good stamina will help, as will solid intangibles.

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26. SP/RP Juan de la Cruz (New Orleans): Normally I would have pointed out that this might not have been the worst year ever to do an autopick, but the more Kheperas we have, the more things are Djed, since the first autopick was New Orleans. Speaking of Djed, de la Cruz was an excellent, consistent college pitcher. The righty has just mediocre stuff but could have excellent control, is well developed for 20 years old, and is physically fit. He’ll be playable a long time.

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27. OF Phillip Higgins (New Orleans): Higgins is another player that would have been just fine in Elephantine, even while he’s just 6’ 2”, 180, so there’s some hope for him. Higgins won the IFA Platinum Stick at CF while hitting an astonishing 21 homers in 37 games, but he’s none of that is likely to translate into the pros. Higgins is very likely to play a corner position, most likely left field, and he should be a solid righty batter across the board but never approach the sorts of power numbers he had in college.

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28. SP Tom Brothers (Mexico City): Brothers was the IFC Pitcher of the Year runner up last year, and he looks to either establish himself in a rotation or be a solid reliever conversion. A lefty five-pitch starter without any outstanding characteristics but consistency across the board, Brothers should make a good lefty reliever if he can’t crack it as a starter.

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29. SS Juan Simpson (Long Beach): Simpson will be a rare player in the middle infield if he develops his contact to the point where he’s major league ready. His combination of above-average power and an excellent batting eye should serve him well, especially as a switch-hitter. Simpson’s defense is not outstanding, but there were a lot worse fielders in the draft and his glove will play at shortstop if his bat is holding up. Superior intangibles will help.

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30. RP Don Jordan (Sacramento): Jordan had maybe the biggest arm in the first round, a 97 MPH fastball crossed with a potentially game-changing curveball, and while he gave up far too many homers in college, leading to some ugly numbers, he also struck out 24 batters in 12 innings. That may be the type of player Jordan is as a professional, but he could also be a really good reliever.

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31. C Jose Hernandez (Twin Cities): Hernandez is one of those types of players where you’re thrilled when it works out, a catcher with a big power bat and potentially an excellent batting eye, but who might never make any kind of consistent contact and who didn’t hit above .241 in college. Of course, when he did hit .241 he had an OPS near 1.000 that year, so we’ll see. Hernandez is also an above-average defensive catcher so even if he never makes it offensively he might still be valuable.

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32. SP Bradley Fell (Charm City): Fell is a project lefty that potentially has a lot going for him, but will need some improvement and some seasoning. The lefty fell off dramatically in his junior year of high school, posting a ghastly 29 walks in 29 innings. Fell is a five-pitch guy and throws hard, and the 17 year old would probably improve with additional velocity. We do have some hieroglyphs for Fell, though, and he looks like a first round talent based on those, though he probably tops out as a #3 or #4 starter.

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33. 2B/SP Hector Herrera (Nashville): Herrera is both a middle infielder and a pitcher, but we think he’ll stick as the former. The righty might have been noted lefty Ramses II’s platoon partner, so it’s very possible that he’s a fairly exciting second baseman, with above-average power for a middle infielder, and if you squint really hard, especially if he’s fielding (not his strength), he looks a lot like #2 pick Javier Aguilar. He doesn’t look like a major league pitcher at this point, but stranger things have happened. Herrera has a long injury history, so he’ll need to stay healthy, too.

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34. OF/1B Jose Encarnacion (Brooklyn): Is Encarnacion the Rosetta Stone, or is just like mummy used to make? He seems virtually unchanged from his time in Northern Africa. Encarnacion is unlikely to hit many home runs or draw many walks, but he should be a consistent .270 hitter from the right hand side of the plate if he develops. He’s also not strong defensively, which may force him to 1B or DH. Good fitness and a good work ethic are plusses.

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Sincerely,

[Dington]

Aww nuts. Didn't notice Herrera's injury history in my haste.

[trmmilwwi]

Love this feature, it's Goater'er!

[aaronweiner]

Aww nuts. Didn't notice Herrera's injury history in my haste.

It's why I didn't draft him. No other reason.

[Knucklehead254]

Goater could probably hit better than half my team right now, but obviously that defense behind the plate needs to improve but if he can get a bump there, he’ll hopefully be ready in time for Hinkle’s first team option to come up (assuming he’s not traded before then).

[aaronweiner]

Goater could probably hit better than half my team right now, but obviously that defense behind the plate needs to improve but if he can get a bump there, he’ll hopefully be ready in time for Hinkle’s first team option to come up (assuming he’s not traded before then).

My whole team has five home runs in 11 games.

[JimSlade]

Chew's "eponymous tobacco product" FTW! I loved this whole piece.

[lordtoffee]

Torres has me very excited to see what he can do, and his work ethic makes him a great development lab performer in theory. All in all, I’m very excited with my first round.

[Jwalk100]

Great job as usual!

[lordtoffee]

Forgot to say this in my last post, but I appreciate the hard work you put into this every year Aaron. Always enjoy reading this.

[bcslouck]

While still adjusting to the new ratings, I saw he was a 14/7/5 pre-25. I figured he would of gone higher with those ratings so I liked the value.

[aaronweiner]

While still adjusting to the new ratings, I saw he was a 14/7/5 pre-25. I figured he would of gone higher with those ratings so I liked the value.

I too can read hieroglyphics: my guy was a 6/10/8 guy with a 70 potential before the switch. No idea if any of that persists though.

5 control in Egypt was pretty sketchy though.

[ae37jr]

31. C Jose Hernandez (Twin Cities): Hernandez is one of those types of players where you’re thrilled when it works out, a catcher with a big power bat and potentially an excellent batting eye, but who might never make any kind of consistent contact and who didn’t hit above .241 in college. Of course, when he did hit .241 he had an OPS near 1.000 that year, so we’ll see. Hernandez is also an above-average defensive catcher so even if he never makes it offensively he might still be valuable.

I'm obviously more optimistic on this pick. I think he'll be one of those players that plays significantly better than his OA/POT. Going off old ratings(I'm still adjusting to a 4 contact being acceptable), he's 5/4/9/8/3. The first thing that jumps out is the power. He's got 35+ HR power. How many catchers have that? Then the eye. His 8 eye boost his 4 contact(5 old) to a passable rate and maybe bring his OBP over .300. Not great, but I figure him as a #7/8 hitter who can clear the bases before the automatic outs come up. Basically, a Deisel Dave type/

So all in all, I see a bottom of the order above average defender who can hit 35+ homers while not killing you with OBP. His lack of speed, bunting, contact, gap, and avoid K heavily drag down his composite rating. But I easily see a 2-3 WAR player who may touch 4 on a good year.

[Knucklehead254]

31. C Jose Hernandez (Twin Cities): Hernandez is one of those types of players where you’re thrilled when it works out, a catcher with a big power bat and potentially an excellent batting eye, but who might never make any kind of consistent contact and who didn’t hit above .241 in college. Of course, when he did hit .241 he had an OPS near 1.000 that year, so we’ll see. Hernandez is also an above-average defensive catcher so even if he never makes it offensively he might still be valuable.

I'm obviously more optimistic on this pick. I think he'll be one of those players that plays significantly better than his OA/POT. Going off old ratings(I'm still adjusting to a 4 contact being acceptable), he's 5/4/9/8/3. The first thing that jumps out is the power. He's got 35+ HR power. How many catchers have that? Then the eye. His 8 eye boost his 4 contact(5 old) to a passable rate and maybe bring his OBP over .300. Not great, but I figure him as a #7/8 hitter who can clear the bases before the automatic outs come up. Basically, a Deisel Dave type/

So all in all, I see a bottom of the order above average defender who can hit 35+ homers while not killing you with OBP. His lack of speed, bunting, contact, gap, and avoid K heavily drag down his composite rating. But I easily see a 2-3 WAR player who may touch 4 on a good year.

I was certainly torn between him and Goater. But I realized power doesn't mesh really well with my park.

[7teen]

I'm pleased with the O'Leary pick, especially that he could be in Portland very soon. I debated taking Escalante at 5 but seeing now that his demands were so high, I'll glady take a little financial relief with the safer O'Leary choice.

And since Phoenix passed on him, I figure that makes it more likely he turns out good!

[aaronweiner]

31. C Jose Hernandez (Twin Cities): Hernandez is one of those types of players where you’re thrilled when it works out, a catcher with a big power bat and potentially an excellent batting eye, but who might never make any kind of consistent contact and who didn’t hit above .241 in college. Of course, when he did hit .241 he had an OPS near 1.000 that year, so we’ll see. Hernandez is also an above-average defensive catcher so even if he never makes it offensively he might still be valuable.

I'm obviously more optimistic on this pick. I think he'll be one of those players that plays significantly better than his OA/POT. Going off old ratings(I'm still adjusting to a 4 contact being acceptable), he's 5/4/9/8/3. The first thing that jumps out is the power. He's got 35+ HR power. How many catchers have that? Then the eye. His 8 eye boost his 4 contact(5 old) to a passable rate and maybe bring his OBP over .300. Not great, but I figure him as a #7/8 hitter who can clear the bases before the automatic outs come up. Basically, a Deisel Dave type/

So all in all, I see a bottom of the order above average defender who can hit 35+ homers while not killing you with OBP. His lack of speed, bunting, contact, gap, and avoid K heavily drag down his composite rating. But I easily see a 2-3 WAR player who may touch 4 on a good year.

Well, two things.

#1: Diesel Dave had 6 contact and this guy had 5 in Egypt.

#2: Dave was also a lefty.

So this isn't apples to apples. Maybe this guy: https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 57165.html
and maybe your guy is better than him.

[Jwalk100]

Diesel Dave All Star. Don't forget. All Star.

[debot]

loved this aaron, and love draft analysis. I haven't delved enough but does league also do draft analysis like 5 years later or anything?

Only thing missing was the Bangles playing in the background....thanks for this

[debot]

just found draft rewind! Disregard!

[RT60]

Thanks for doing this. If I read it right, I think you like the Nystrom pick.