Strategy Corner 2007, Vol 1: Park Effects and You

[cheekimonk]

Strategy Corner is an idea I've been kicking around since about the 2004 season but got too much into the details of making it more complicated than it needs to be. So I've going to toss the feature into the fray and see what comes of it (if anything).

Welcome to Strategy Corner! My intent with this feature is to pose more advanced, supposedly, considerations in being a successful OOTP GM (or, perhaps, more insight into why you are not a successful OOTP GM. My goal is to have Strategy Corner focus on issues that are faced by both OOTP and MLB GMs/managers so that responses can draw both from OOTP and real-life examples. That said, however, priority should be given to considering strategies that seem to work, or not, with OOTP's engine if there seems to be a gap.

Most importantly, my intention is not to "own" Strategy Corner. Anyone can, and it is very much hoped they will, post a "Strategy Corner" piece according to the general guidelines below:

1. Anyone can create a "Strategy Corner" post. Every post should a) be named in the format: "Strategy Corner season, Vol incremental number (if Vol 3 was the last Strategy Corner posted by someone, next would be Vol 4): Short title indicating the topic" and b) by a "meaty" enough issue for discussion (i.e., "Is position rating a composite of Range, Errors, and Arm" is no good, but "Shortstops Slugger McBrickhands vs. Ozzie Sacbuntly" should be a good topic...basically, if your strategy issue can conceivably be answered 'Yes' or 'No' than that's no good.

2. Replies to a Strategy Corner piece don't have to be long - we've all got plenty on our plates - but should include examples to consider whether they be from MLB, OOTP in general, or from your own history as a GM. It's not expected, and probably should be discouraged, that GMs outline what they are doing now.

Park Effects and You

Everyone probably knows that ballparks in OOTP carry Ballpark Factors. The factors are in 8 categories: AVG Overall, AVG LHB, AVG RHB, Doubles, Triples, Home Runs Overall, Home Runs LHB, Home Runs RHB. But a close reading of the manual reveals that it's really just 6 categories as AVG Overall and HR Overall are calculated based on the LHB and RHB factors for AVG and HRs. The average ballpark factor is 1.000 with lower factors having a suppressing effect on factors and higher factors having a boosting effect. The manual does make clear that the numbers aren't straight percentages, so a factor of 2.000 on Home Runs RHB does not mean a right-handed hitter has twice the probability of hitting a home run in that park as a similar player in a neutral park. It also does not mean that said hitter will produce 2x the number of home runs than otherwise. Also, it should be said, ballpark dimensions are purely cosmetic...it is only the factors that impact player performance.

So, now the strategic issue: when should you, and how should you, build a roster with park factors in mind? How much more or less than 1.000 in a park makes a factor figure significantly into your planning? Do you follow factors or fight them (i.e., if a ballpark has a .920 factor on HR RHB are you more likely to grab a monster right-handed slugger or 3 with the thought that home field advantage will come from your team being built to explicitly overcome that factor while visitors won't, or do you follow that factor and try to find left-handed sluggers and right-handed hitters with higher Gap Power?)? What about pitchers? Does a home park with very low HR factors make you lower your acceptable Groundball % when shopping for pitchers? If your park is factored highly in most offensive categories, do you look harder for high-strikeout pitchers?

[jcrmoon42]

Great idea, by the way!

I think you have to go with, not against, your park factors. You are going to play 81 games there, and the game play in your park is the one you can influence most. Now, that's not to say that building around your park is an easy thing. Free agency is not exactly a gold mine around here. Draft picks develop the way they develop without your control. You do the best you can to find guys who work in your park, but take the best you can get just the same.

An exception to this, in my mind, is pitcher home runs. Just because your home park has a low HR factor, you shouldn't find that reason to get pitchers who give up homers. Home run pitchers, unless they have absolutely impeccable control and you have a lock-tite defense, are a sure way to inconsistency and frustration. A guy can walk nobody and strike out everybody, but if he's prone to three run homers, you're not going to win ballgames.