Quick question

[LeeS]

Hello Guys,

Apologies if this is in the wrong place but I wanted to gather some wisdom of the crowd.

Got some downtime today so I am working on my code for OOTP data (I use spreadsheets fairly extensively when I play) and I'm fine tuning my approach to evaluating pitchers. How much of an emphasis do you guys put on Command for SP? I have always weighted things more towards Stuff and Movement but I think that I need to revisit the %'s that I apply to each.

[Lane]

moved to league chatter subforum

[Lane]

to answer your question, it depends on the pitcher and the role. i don't mind low control for relievers, or even high stuff starters.

[Dington]

League average stuff in ‘24 is above 9. That should change in ‘25, but I still value stuff highly. Movement is king and stuff/control are secondary. More stuff is better for poor defensive teams.

[RonCo]

Looking at SP, command/control definitely has a stronger place in the conversation than I think some guys give it. How much more is the secret sauce, of course. The question does get clouded by situation, ballpark, and defensive environment.

[shoeless.db]

The only thing I'll add to the above is when one of a pitcher's ratings is elite. For me, movement is king and needs to be at the very least above average, but if a guy has elite stuff or elite command, I'm ok with the opposite rating (stuff/command) being average or above average.

This is my "in-a-vacuum" answer.

[ae37jr]

I view control(combined with stamina) as consistency. You can have an 11/11/3 rating with 2 stamina and that guy is going to dominate the first batter or two and then fall apart due to a high pitch count and tiring quickly.

Meanwhile a 9/8/9 pitcher with 10 stamina will probably do much better over 162 games because he will go deeper into games with ease.

Of course that 11/11/3 guy can still be a weapon if used in moderation. But I think you need some high stamina/control pitchers both in rotation and pen due to the volatile nature of only being able to make roster moves once a week.

[Jwalk100]

I weight my spreadsheet with Movement, Stuff then Control. It also adds in smaller weights in hold, stamina and pitches (number and types).

[RonCo]

League average stuff in ‘24 is above 9. That should change in ‘25, but I still value stuff highly. Movement is king and stuff/control are secondary. More stuff is better for poor defensive teams.

I'll note that the ratings of the league average plate appearance is almost certainly different in the BBA and GBC.

[RonCo]

For what it’s worth – and I would be very careful putting too much onto it – here are correlation numbers I got from our BBA environment when I matched up the core pitcher ratings with ERA, ERA+, FIP, and FIP-. There’s nothing here to account for platoon advantage or parks, or strength of opponent, or …. But it’s interesting.

First I limited it to pitchers who threw at least 50 innings.

50IP+	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.20435	-0.22547	-0.12532	-0.03921	-0.21511
ERA+	0.279336	0.18372	0.073466	0.059661	0.180457
FIP	-0.29371	-0.36135	-0.20876	-0.00057	-0.34408
FIP-	-0.29333	-0.35698	-0.19758	-0.01309	-0.33983

Then I limited the sample to only those with at least 100 IP.

100+ IP	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.07835	-0.31233	-0.28722	0.085168	-0.30222
ERA+	0.113927	0.322937	0.276266	-0.05192	0.299938
FIP	-0.17986	-0.47763	-0.30887	0.144764	-0.45065
FIP-	-0.19742	-0.4729	-0.29077	0.121351	-0.44417

And finally, to those with at least 150 IP.

150+ IP	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.02346	-0.27861	-0.3222	0.203043	-0.27063
ERA+	0.08891	0.314064	0.284634	-0.20146	0.300719
FIP	-0.24894	-0.361	-0.25435	0.139772	-0.30872
FIP-	-0.26961	-0.36278	-0.22386	0.08944	-0.30321

As I said, take it for what it’s worth.

[shoeless.db]

50IP+	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.20435	-0.22547	-0.12532	-0.03921	-0.21511
ERA+	0.279336	0.18372	0.073466	0.059661	0.180457
FIP	-0.29371	-0.36135	-0.20876	-0.00057	-0.34408
FIP-	-0.29333	-0.35698	-0.19758	-0.01309	-0.33983

Then I limited the sample to only those with at least 100 IP.

100+ IP	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.07835	-0.31233	-0.28722	0.085168	-0.30222
ERA+	0.113927	0.322937	0.276266	-0.05192	0.299938
FIP	-0.17986	-0.47763	-0.30887	0.144764	-0.45065
FIP-	-0.19742	-0.4729	-0.29077	0.121351	-0.44417

And finally, to those with at least 150 IP.

150+ IP	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
ERA	-0.02346	-0.27861	-0.3222	0.203043	-0.27063
ERA+	0.08891	0.314064	0.284634	-0.20146	0.300719
FIP	-0.24894	-0.361	-0.25435	0.139772	-0.30872
FIP-	-0.26961	-0.36278	-0.22386	0.08944	-0.30321

I could look at these numbers for 52.1428571428 days (or one full dog year) and still not have any clue what I'm looking at.

[RonCo]

It says Suzuki hits too many home runs for the Basilica.

[BaseClogger]

My biggest takeaway was the relationship movement has with FIPs which is remarkable considering it should only impact one of the three FIP variables (HRs) . Whereas stuff should influence two (Ks and HRs) and control should factor into all three (Ks, BBs, and HRs).

[RonCo]

My biggest takeaway was the relationship movement has with FIPs which is remarkable considering it should only impact one of the three FIP variables (HRs) . Whereas stuff should influence two (Ks and HRs) and control should factor into all three (Ks, BBs, and HRs).

I think you might be over-thinking the complexity of rating interaction. My opinion is that there is very little, if any at all, interaction of stuff with anything other than strikeout rate, movement with HR rate, and control with walk rate.

Here are the correlations of these stats with BBA ratings. Note again, this is only one league, and there's no differentiation in the regions between each rating bar, and no adjustments for parks and platoons and whatnot.

50 IP	OVR	POT	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
K/AB	0.548	0.450	0.811	-0.147	-0.115	0.314	-0.157
HR/AB	-0.120	-0.069	0.073	-0.530	-0.039	0.205	-0.529
BB/BF	-0.235	-0.202	0.160	-0.048	-0.692	-0.025	-0.021

150 IP	OVR	POT	STU	MOV	CON	PBABIP P	HRR P
K/AB	0.730	0.651	0.870	-0.274	0.019	0.400	-0.335
HR/AB	0.053	0.085	0.240	-0.623	0.051	0.390	-0.607
BB/BF	-0.222	-0.098	0.109	0.024	-0.698	0.099	0.029

Bottom line: if there is a relationship between Stuff and anything other than K-rate, you have to put together a large sample size to find it. Same for Movement and anything but HR-rate. If it’s there, it’s tiny.

[RonCo]

As an aside, I think that correlation rates of pitcher overall ratings and potentials lends credence to the idea that OOTP v24's overall rating scheme weight Stuff way, way, too strongly.

[shoeless.db]

My biggest takeaway was the relationship movement has with FIPs which is remarkable considering it should only impact one of the three FIP variables (HRs) . Whereas stuff should influence two (Ks and HRs) and control should factor into all three (Ks, BBs, and HRs).

Looks like we found Ron's second account.

[RonCo]

You can tell it's not me because I would never say there's any cross-influence between the ratings.

...unless, of course, I purposely wanted to mess up the trail, of course.

Plausible deniability is the root of everything.

[BaseClogger]

Ron was away when I joined and I haven’t gone back to read much of the archive so a lot of this is new to me. Historically I’ve just played the game the way I think it should work intuitively.

[MartinMartell]

I find personally that I put more emphasis on it then most people do. I am assuming your talking abour Control. It not only figures the amount that you give up walks. But I feel it definitely lends to your Ks total. It allows you to hit those spots on the corners that batters lay off, So you get those called strikes that you might not get if you have a low control. I have nothing to back this up. This is just something I personally feel and have kind of notice reading what the in game announcers have to say. And watching the pitch location. I seem to get more called strikes on the corners with my pitchers that have high Control. I value it enough in another league I traded up in the draft just to get a better chance at a pitcher that was in that draft that had an 80 potential in Control. It would be 10 in this league.

[Dington]

Ron was away when I joined and I haven’t gone back to read much of the archive so a lot of this is new to me. Historically I’ve just played the game the way I think it should work intuitively.

Ok, Ron.