Very Quick Impact Study: HR Potential Rating

[RonCo]

In the same vein as the pitcher BABIP study, I grabbed the pitcher HR Potential value and did a table of the league's HR/AB for each HR Potential rating. If you just scan down that column you could say it makes a difference, too. But I also note that the average Movement rating grows alongside the HR potential, and we all understand Movement to be the primary driver of HR avoidance--and that seems to track pretty well there.

I'd guess that HR potential is mostly a controller for Movement. But I admit fully that I have no idea id that's right or not.

Regardless, here's the data. Feel free to let me know if you see anything interesting here.

HR POT	AVG MOV	AB	HR	HR/AB
3	2.76	1755	100	.057
4	3.87	2236	103	.046
5	5.09	7101	306	.043
6	6.01	16546	624	.038
7	7.03	20998	745	.035
8	7.91	29137	901	.031
9	8.93	20469	534	.026
10	9.96	9937	249	.025
11	10.75	3074	69	.022
Grand Total	7.38	111253	3631	.033

[Jwalk100]

It's amazing how the programmers can get a smooth result.

[RonCo]

It's amazing how the programmers can get a smooth result.

The performance maps (my term for the associations of specific ratings to AB and PA based output) are pretty much all linear. Occasionally you get a weird curve, but that's usually either a small sample size outlier or an effect that uses multiple inputs to make an assessment...such as baserunning things (I think).

[RonCo]

Or I should say, linear within a range (say from 0-100, then from 100-200, or whatever). So you can get bends in the curve.