Hot Take: The BBA has a Stuff Rating Problem

[Ted]

Or not. I dunno. It may be more OOTP letting the Stuff rating go over 13 in this version. Probably it's a combo of that and our inflated ratings.

I'm not really up in arms about this, but it is kind of silly.

Cornelio Lozano currently has a k/9 rating of 20.70.

On May 6th, 1998 I watched as Kerry Wood struck out 20 batters in nine innings in the most dominant performance I have ever seen. It was too young to remember Clemens doing it.

Cornelio Lozano is as dominant as Kerry Wood was that night every time he takes the mound. Every single time he pitches, he is striking out batters at the rate of the two most overwhelmingly powerful pitching performances ever (from a strikeout perspective).

That is stupid. Kind of fun, too. But also kind of broken.

[GoldenOne]

Reini has been around the 19.5 K/9 for most of the season too.

[recte44]

Yes, this is a problem. I'll continue to slowly edge this down over time.

[GoldenOne]

Yes, this is a problem. I'll continue to slowly edge this down over time.

But you'll leave Reini the way he is now, right?

[Lane]

Probably better to compare to relivers, but yeah, it's high.

[Ted]

Yes, this is a problem. I'll continue to slowly edge this down over time.

I don't know that you can with league totals. Would it make the 7-9 stuff guys useless? The problem is the spread, right? That 7 to like 17 stuff are all at the top level? How do you make the league total make that work out? I'd rather have a handful bonkers stupid guys than affect the bulk of the herd.

Unless you're talking about the PCMs slowly backing off. That'll mostly work and take a while, but I'm all for it. I think that may still not address the game occasionally making a guy whose stuff gets way too high. The problem is really the OOTP engine removing the stuff cap.

[RonCo]

As we talked about today, I'm not sure I'm massively worried about it, but we can certainly look at distributions.

[RonCo]

I'll be posting our podcast tomorrow, but here's a set of tables that support what I was talking about, and would seem to say that the "issue" is not particularly big, but is associated with a total of five relief pitchers who have 17 and 18 Stuff.

That said, Ks are up a touch, and it might be a good idea to VERY GENTLY bump them down a little on League Totals. Maybe.

[Ted]

I'll be posting our podcast tomorrow, but here's a set of tables that support what I was talking about, and would seem to say that the "issue" is not particularly big, but is associated with a total of five relief pitchers who have 17 and 18 Stuff.


Stuff-2045-K.PNG

That said, Ks are up a touch, and it might be a good idea to VERY GENTLY bump them down a little on League Totals. Maybe.

This is reassuring to see. Thanks for the data. It looks like it's just a handful of guys with a mismatch to the avk rating just wrecking hitters. That's a little goofy, but yeah it's not so bad.

[7teen]

Wow, in 3 of Lazano's last 10 outings, he's pitched 2.1 and 2.2 innings where he struck out every batter he faced. One of those was a 2.2 inning outing against Portland where he K'd 8.

Granted, I'm not sure if that's a testimony to Lazano or a knock on Portland at this point.

[Lane]

Wow, in 3 of Lazano's last 10 outings, he's pitched 2.1 and 2.2 innings where he struck out every batter he faced. One of those was a 2.2 inning outing against Portland where he K'd 8.

Granted, I'm not sure if that's a testimony to Lazano or a knock on Portland at this point.

He's striking out over 63% of batters faced, so maybe a little of both? Especially on the 2.2 inning outing.

[Jwalk100]

Does any one know if Lozano has had any immaculate innings?

[jleddy]

Does any one know if Lozano has had any immaculate innings?

Innings? Maybe, but no immaculate outings (which is understandable since he averages over 1.5 innings per appearance). As dominant he is, that 4 control makes an immaculate inning still pretty tough. He does have two appearances of 2.1 IP with 7 K in 34 IP though.

[jleddy]

Does any one know if Lozano has had any immaculate innings?

Innings? Maybe, but no immaculate outings (which is understandable since he averages over 1.5 innings per appearance). As dominant he is, that 4 control makes an immaculate inning still pretty tough. He does have two appearances of 2.1 IP with 7 K in 34 IP though.

Reini had a 10 pitch, 3 K appearance on May 6.

[Jwalk100]

Inning. My finger spasmed or something.