2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:53 am

GoldenOne wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:37 am
usnspecialist wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:38 am
RonCo wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:01 am
Well, Kelly does have a pretty intense injury history.
ya that cant exactly be a shocker. Like me whenever zeitler gets hurt.
You knew what you were getting into...... :cool:
o I know, that is why I'm saying you cant really complain about it.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by recte44 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:50 am

I forgot to post html and won’t be able to until late tonight

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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by aaronweiner » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:06 am

Hard to be upset about Palacios's deal. There's a ticking timer on the Rockville dynasty, but the core should be solid for the next few years.

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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:08 am

recte44 wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:50 am
I forgot to post html and won’t be able to until late tonight
I am showing the HTML as being on 01 Sept, which is up to date isnt it?
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by ae37jr » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:11 pm

You know....
….with all of Jacksonville's injuries
...and all of Mexico City's double headers
...combined with the fact the Brooklyn plays our last 13 games at home

This could get interesting. I still wouldn't bet on us, we'd need pretty much everything to break right. But I'm calling up a couple of guys that are going to make us a better team. 40 man roster always plays in our favor too. Gonna be a fun ride even if we fall short.

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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:45 pm

6 DL stints in 10 years, and 3 in the last 5. This is just his 2nd appearance on the injury list (3rd if you count the 1 day injury) since his 2035 UCL replacement. You guys have a different view of a scary injury history than I clearly do. Speaking as someone who managed Tully Crow, Alfredo Martinez, and Reece Wareham; Kelly is a comparitive Iron Man.

Does Noboru also have a sketchy injury history? Including both their current injuries, Noboru has one more injury in his career than Kelly.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:00 pm

Yeah, I wouldn't be shivering in my boots over fear of losing him, but technically his actual UCL injury was less than four years ago (late 2035).

- 2036: He lost half of the year recovering, but threw 114 innings
- 2037: Hurt in the spring, then lost three months, still threw 123 innings
- 2038: Healthy, 216 innings
- 2039: Just now had a dead arm, 165 innings so far

So, Kelly is no Tully Crow yet, but one should also realize that Tully Crow didn't really even get hurt at all until he was 28 or 29. Not saying he's going to turn into Crow with any certainty, Kelly's history is certainly more intense than Crows was at this age--and I'd guess that a look at Randy's database would show patterns of abuse in his younger years--and even 2036/2037. Those are big inning totals for the time he played.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:22 pm

RonCo wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:00 pm
Yeah, I wouldn't be shivering in my boots over fear of losing him, but technically his actual UCL injury was less than four years ago (late 2035).

- 2036: He lost half of the year recovering, but threw 114 innings
- 2037: Hurt in the spring, then lost three months, still threw 123 innings
- 2038: Healthy, 216 innings
- 2039: Just now had a dead arm, 165 innings so far

So, Kelly is no Tully Crow yet, but one should also realize that Tully Crow didn't really even get hurt at all until he was 28 or 29. Not saying he's going to turn into Crow with any certainty, Kelly's history is certainly more intense than Crows was at this age--and I'd guess that a look at Randy's database would show patterns of abuse in his younger years--and even 2036/2037. Those are big inning totals for the time he played.
OOTP injuries were also different when Crow was in his 20s. Day-to-day injuries are much more common in the last few builds. The day-to-day injuries under a week (including this one) don't really worry me. The original comment was more, 'Of course, I'd go after another talented pitcher and he would almost immediately get injured. My history with talented pitchers sucks.'

I know he had a ton of innings back in 33-34, but with just the one elbow injury and no shoulder injuries (1? is a dead arm shoulder?), I think if he suddenly has a run of elbow/shoulder injuries it will be because of bad rolls of OOTP RNG rather than PAP suddenly killing him. (how much worse are his abuse points than someone like Valle, Dempster, or Rafel?)
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:25 pm

I don't know about Dempster, but Valle's abuser points are hugely better than Rafael's. Valle almost never throws more than 100 pitches sn outing. Rafael rarely threw less for a long time.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by RonCo » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:28 pm

You can go look at Rafael's kind of workload by checking the last ten outings he had before he got his last injury.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:09 pm

I don't have game-by-game data going back, but looking in-game, over their careers, here are their per game pitch count averages:

Kelly - 98 (high of 104) [102 and 104 in his first 2 seasons]
Rafael - 108 (114)
Dempster - 104 (111)
Valle - 93 (96)

Dempster was used less his first two years, but since 2034 he's gone much further into games. Yet, he hasn't been injured a single time at 30 years old.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:13 pm

Ya I don't have the game by game data since I stopped doing my data base a few years ago. Just too time consuming.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by jleddy » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:14 pm

udlb58 wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:09 pm
Dempster was used less his first two years, but since 2034 he's gone much further into games. Yet, he hasn't been injured a single time at 30 years old.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:36 pm

With Crow, how do you know he didn't have much injury trouble early? The injury data for him only goes back to 2031. I know I was able to acquire him for cheap because Brett was concerned about him coming off his 2nd major injury in 4 years and having a Wrecked injury rating.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:37 pm

jleddy wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:14 pm
udlb58 wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:09 pm
Dempster was used less his first two years, but since 2034 he's gone much further into games. Yet, he hasn't been injured a single time at 30 years old.
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Does OOTP say Iron Man for him? When I just looked at him, it said 'Durable'.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by jleddy » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:39 pm

"Iron Man" in my OOTP, but of course I'm running the game off of a Speak & Spell from 1984 and two golf cart batteries.
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Re: 2039, Trade Deadline/Sim #22 Chatter

Post by udlb58 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:56 pm

jleddy wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:39 pm
"Iron Man" in my OOTP, but of course I'm running the game off of a Speak & Spell from 1984 and two golf cart batteries.
Maybe I'm just mis-remembering.
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