2039, Sim #18 Chatter

[crobillard]

The Edmonton Jackrabbits traded 27-year-old starting pitcher Bobby Lynch to the Calgary Pioneers, getting 20-year-old right fielder Myeong-hwan Kim, 18-year-old third baseman Pepe Espinosa, 19-year-old starting pitcher Emilio Brazini, 21-year-old starting pitcher Edgardo Torres and 19-year-old starting pitcher Fekadu Bbosa in return.

Late to the party and the trade thread is locked, so allow me to comment...

Whoa. WHOA. WHOA!!! Love the return Chris got for -- more than I thought he'd get but also not a gross overpay by the Pioneers -- and kudos to Kevin for putting it all on the table for a Landis run...what a rotation in Calgary! And let's not forget this is an interdivision trade (both this season and post-realignment), so it'll make for some great "What if..." and "Remember when..." discussions down the road.

Exciting stuff!

Sincerely,

A Shellshocked Fellow Frontier GM

Absolutely. I think it’s a fantastic deal for both sides. I struggled mightily with trading Lynch, but my financial concerns weren’t going away. I needed to do something big. I had two other offers that were similar to this one.

I’m not sure whether I picked the best one, I just went with my gut. Bobby Lynch is a force man. He’s going to help big time in the playoffs and beyond. Calgary has a really deep farm system. That’s why Kevin and I got talking. His farm system will keep churning.

I’m happy it was interdivision. It will be weird facing Bobby Lynch but I’m excited about it. I don’t want to call up anyone too early so I think I’m punting this year unless my shitty players decide they want to help me win games.

[RonCo]

And everyone is telling me I am asking too much for Vicente. Looks like I will be raising his price tag.

Great point, I was wondering the same thing...if Lynch ended up being traded early, would it in someway set the market leading up to the deadline? Sounds like it has, at least for one party.

The market is going to be interesting. It could be really hot, or could fall completely off.

[aaronweiner]

Also, team on fire. Up to the best record in the BBA.

[shoeless.db]

Man, I love the Lynch trade! Good on Calgary for going after the Landis. All chips to the center of the table, baby!

[crobillard]

Also, team on fire. Up to the best record in the BBA.

18-6 in July. Disgusting. Get out.

[indiansfan]

I gave up a ton but I had a surplus of SP down on the farm and still have the best ones. Lynch, Gilliam, and Pierce give me a great threesome if I can make the playoffs. Of course I have to sign Lynch or else this trade will be a disaster. However many years ago when Chris ran a different team, I seem to remember trading him a HOF SS that I couldn’t afford by the name of Archer and he went to a Landis. I got a prospect signed as an IFA by the name of Dam Leonard who had a pretty impressive career and I went to a couple Landis rounds.

[crobillard]

I gave up a ton but I had a surplus of SP down on the farm and still have the best ones. Lynch, Gilliam, and Pierce give me a great threesome if I can make the playoffs. Of Cote’s I have to sign Lynch or else this trade will be a disaster. However many years ago when Chris ran a different team, I seem to remember trading him a HOF SS that I couldn’t afford by the name of Archer and he went to a Landis. I got a prospect signed as an IFA by the name of Dam Leonard who had a pretty impressive career and I went to a couple Landis rounds.

Lol great memory. Leonard was such a beast for so long. Do whatever you want with Lynch. Your team will be fine either way. I hope he gets you a Landis.

[RonCo]

If Lynch gets Calgary a Landis, the deal will not be a disaster no matter what. Looks like he got blitzed in his first outing, though...and if there's a dark cloud it's that Lynch has been giving up home runs at a shuddering pace recently...and he's moving from a park that suppresses the long ball to one that juices them.

So I thought it was a fascinating roll of the dice. Rooting for Calgary ti make it work. Then again, as Kevin said--they've got the farm system for it.

[ae37jr]

This season is actually starting to give me anxiety. In the next week or so I play 6 games at Vegas and Charm City.

My right brain is thinking... You're 2 games out of a wild card spot. You can do this and steal some playoff money...gotta stack the lineup with lefty hitters and call up some high movement pitchers. You actually have tons of both of those better then what's on the current BBA team. DO IT and shock the world!!!

Meanwhile my left brain is thinking... stay the course buddy. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Your team is terrible. It's all been luck. The future is where it's at right now. Don't start any unnecessary clocks or stunt long term growth just to get an even shittier draft pick you idiot.

[handaspencer]

This season is actually starting to give me anxiety. In the next week or so I play 6 games at Vegas and Charm City.

My right brain is thinking... You're 2 games out of a wild card spot. You can do this and steal some playoff money...gotta stack the lineup with lefty hitters and call up some high movement pitchers. You actually have tons of both of those better then what's on the current BBA team. DO IT and shock the world!!!

Meanwhile my left brain is thinking... stay the course buddy. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Your team is terrible. It's all been luck. The future is where it's at right now. Don't start any unnecessary clocks or stunt long term growth just to get an even shittier draft pick you idiot.

Thats why you make the big bucks for these type decisions

[bschr682]

This is the kind of thing that needs more consideration when we vote GM of the year. Both what Calgary is doing by going for it and what Brooklyn is talking about. I think a lot of people are too risk averse. Prospects burn out all the time. It blows to see some kid absolutely killing it in AA or AAA and being held down for service time reasons only to have his career flame out. Those minor league years could have been infinitely more useful as min sal major league years. Sometime you have to be aggressive and take what looks like a long term L for the short term W.

But as Brooklyn pointed out, you can’t be an idiot about it. If your team is smoke and mirrors maybe don’t trade the farm.

[aaronweiner]

This is the kind of thing that needs more consideration when we vote GM of the year. Both what Calgary is doing by going for it and what Brooklyn is talking about. I think a lot of people are too risk averse. Prospects burn out all the time. It blows to see some kid absolutely killing it in AA or AAA and being held down for service time reasons only to have his career flame out. Those minor league years could have been infinitely more useful as min sal major league years. Sometime you have to be aggressive and take what looks like a long term L for the short term W.

But as Brooklyn pointed out, you can’t be an idiot about it. If your team is smoke and mirrors maybe don’t trade the farm.

You're totally right. Did you know that the team that currently has the best record in the league traded away their starting shortstop during the year TO Calgary, and lost their closer, 4.5 WAR starting first baseman, and a 4.5 WAR starting pitcher this offseason?

I just happened to notice.

[RonCo]

This is the kind of thing that needs more consideration when we vote GM of the year. Both what Calgary is doing by going for it and what Brooklyn is talking about. I think a lot of people are too risk averse. Prospects burn out all the time. It blows to see some kid absolutely killing it in AA or AAA and being held down for service time reasons only to have his career flame out. Those minor league years could have been infinitely more useful as min sal major league years. Sometime you have to be aggressive and take what looks like a long term L for the short term W.

But as Brooklyn pointed out, you can’t be an idiot about it. If your team is smoke and mirrors maybe don’t trade the farm.

These are always tough decisions that have to be assessed in context of everything else that's surrounding them.

On the whole, I think I see more young kids being brought up too early and putting up pedestrian numbers while they develop than I see kids staying in the minors too long and busting. But it can certainly happen both ways--which is what makes these things fun, I suppose.

In this case (as a counter example), you can argue that if Bobby Lynch's first year hadn't been wasted on a useless/losing half-year, Edmonton would have been in better shape today. You can also try to argue that if he'd been kept in the minors that last few months maybe he'd have regressed. I think the first option is demonstrably true, and the second is deeply unlikely. However, when Lynch was brought up, I think the league as a whole was full of praise even though Edmonton was clearly not going anywhere back then.

So the hard part is how to not be an idiot about it.

[RonCo]

A pure fan's perspective is to always asks for the best performing team possible at all times. A pure GM's view is to always create maximum "value" ... whatever he thinks that is--because that will eventually turn into wins. Which, I think, is at the core of what Ted was basically discussing in his Guide to Winning.

[bschr682]

This is the kind of thing that needs more consideration when we vote GM of the year. Both what Calgary is doing by going for it and what Brooklyn is talking about. I think a lot of people are too risk averse. Prospects burn out all the time. It blows to see some kid absolutely killing it in AA or AAA and being held down for service time reasons only to have his career flame out. Those minor league years could have been infinitely more useful as min sal major league years. Sometime you have to be aggressive and take what looks like a long term L for the short term W.

But as Brooklyn pointed out, you can’t be an idiot about it. If your team is smoke and mirrors maybe don’t trade the farm.

These are always tough decisions that have to be assessed in context of everything else that's surrounding them.

On the whole, I think I see more young kids being brought up too early and putting up pedestrian numbers while they develop than I see kids staying in the minors too long and busting. But it can certainly happen both ways--which is what makes these things fun, I suppose.

In this case (as a counter example), you can argue that if Bobby Lynch's first year hadn't been wasted on a useless/losing half-year, Edmonton would have been in better shape today. You can also try to argue that if he'd been kept in the minors that last few months maybe he'd have regressed. I think the first option is demonstrably true, and the second is deeply unlikely. However, when Lynch was brought up, I think the league as a whole was full of praise even though Edmonton was clearly not going anywhere back then.

So the hard part is how to not be an idiot about it.

Had lynch not been called up, Edmonton gets that extra year. Gets the keep him this season. Then next season when he lumps to 5/4/9 he has to let him walk for absolutely nothing.

[usnspecialist]

My counter to the service time argument is that if they struggle early then it keeps the arb numbers lower and more manageable.

EDIT: I should say I am historically one of the more aggressive when it comes to promotion.

[bschr682]

This is the kind of thing that needs more consideration when we vote GM of the year. Both what Calgary is doing by going for it and what Brooklyn is talking about. I think a lot of people are too risk averse. Prospects burn out all the time. It blows to see some kid absolutely killing it in AA or AAA and being held down for service time reasons only to have his career flame out. Those minor league years could have been infinitely more useful as min sal major league years. Sometime you have to be aggressive and take what looks like a long term L for the short term W.

But as Brooklyn pointed out, you can’t be an idiot about it. If your team is smoke and mirrors maybe don’t trade the farm.

You're totally right. Did you know that the team that currently has the best record in the league traded away their starting shortstop during the year TO Calgary, and lost their closer, 4.5 WAR starting first baseman, and a 4.5 WAR starting pitcher this offseason?

I just happened to notice.

Your team doesn’t pass the “12 year old with google access” test.

[jleddy]

My counter to the service time argument is that if they struggle early then it keeps the arb numbers lower and more manageable.

That's like wanting to date a hideous-looking woman because she won't be courted by anyone else.

[RonCo]

Had lynch not been called up, Edmonton gets that extra year. Gets the keep him this season. Then next season when he lumps to 5/4/9 he has to let him walk for absolutely nothing.

That's certainly possible.

It's also possible that at age 27 he keeps his ratings for three more solid seasons before fading. Of the two, my projection is that keeping his ratings is the more likely one, but it's maybe 80/20, so anything could still happen.

My view here is that of the 30 or 40 really brilliant young players who are up in the BBA right now, probably seven or eight are up too early for their own good (and probably at the detriment to their organization's value), and another seven or eight are borderline cases that won't be really known for awhile. That still means twenty-five or so are clearly well made promotions--meaning either they brought them up at the right time, or if they were held back for any service time concerns it didn't seem to hurt their ratings any.

[handaspencer]

I think it depends on the timing of when they are ready. If its June and the kid is ready probably not wise to delay until the 3rd week of April the following year. If its opening day the kid is ready I will always make him wait a couple weeks because I want that extra year in their prime rather than the first 2 weeks of their rookie season.

For example Kevin Mackeith was brought up the last week of the season in 2037 and when I took over he had 7 service days and his clock started which made absolutely no sense to me. Why waste 7 days when your out of the playoffs? I had to make him play 25 games in AAA in 2038 to get his clock correct so I could get that 7th year and I am so glad I did this.