Schmidt Resigns

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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:51 am

RonCo wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:34 am
Ted's angst here is that Gracia and Ramos are not top 20 players, or whatever, and are asking for more than $20M. Which can be a fair argument. But Ramos is 27 and a Nebraska award winner, and Gracia (33) just went 21-7 and lead the Brewster in ERA. Is there anything unusual about the idea that they would both want to go to the open market to find out what they are worth? That's what this algorithm is saying to the GM: "blow me away, or you can fight for me on the open market."
That’s why I don’t have an issue with it either. They might be asking for more than he wants to pay them, but he can still make them a competitive offer in free agency.

The Nationals made a 300M offer to Bryce Harper and he turned them down. They still tried in FA and ultimately he signed with philly. Although for a while there it looked like he might have overvalued himself.

I’d like players to ask for something realistic of what they could get in FA. We still have a lot of cash floating around.

It seems like Ted would be okay if the player just said “i want to test free agency, but feel free to make me an offer” without disclosing what he would sign for. Maybe that’s the prop solution.

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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:59 am

JimBob2232 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:51 am
I’d like players to ask for something realistic of what they could get in FA.
That's what I think the right design goal is. If the environment is MLB-like, the player should be asking for MLB-like values. If it's not MLB-like, then those numbers will be different.
It seems like Ted would be okay if the player just said “i want to test free agency, but feel free to make me an offer” without disclosing what he would sign for. Maybe that’s the prop solution.
This is probably right. At least to an extent.

OOTP players are horrible at communicating their views and not particularly good at showing they are aware of their actual situation with regard to the financial system they are working in(responses during arbitration are particularly clunky). I don't remember which, but apparently one of Ted's players is now no longer talking to him--which I take to mean Ted tried to "lowball" him, and the player broke off. This would be much easier to swallow if the player just said: "yeah, enough of this...I want to go to free agency, so let's not waste our time." It might still piss us off--especially if we think the offer we made is much better than any similar MLB player would take.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Ted » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:25 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:59 am
JimBob2232 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:51 am
I’d like players to ask for something realistic of what they could get in FA.
That's what I think the right design goal is. If the environment is MLB-like, the player should be asking for MLB-like values. If it's not MLB-like, then those numbers will be different.
It seems like Ted would be okay if the player just said “i want to test free agency, but feel free to make me an offer” without disclosing what he would sign for. Maybe that’s the prop solution.
This is probably right. At least to an extent.

OOTP players are horrible at communicating their views and not particularly good at showing they are aware of their actual situation with regard to the financial system they are working in(responses during arbitration are particularly clunky). I don't remember which, but apparently one of Ted's players is now no longer talking to him--which I take to mean Ted tried to "lowball" him, and the player broke off. This would be much easier to swallow if the player just said: "yeah, enough of this...I want to go to free agency, so let's not waste our time." It might still piss us off--especially if we think the offer we made is much better than any similar MLB player would take.
I said I'd be gone, but well, I've answered a few kind PMs and now I've read these last couple posts.

Let me correct a couple things.

1) I never actually submitted and exported any offers at all. Lowball or otherwise. I always ask after I export, and if it's too much, I don't export again. My experience has been that players either never budge, or at most drop 200 k off their demand. Often they go up. And get pissed. So I don't export offers that the player doesn't say he wants to think about.

So Gracia just stopped talking to me. He demanded 25.8 x 6 for ages 35-40 for 4 months, then one day said he wanted to go to free agency.

2) Thinking that this is the game' way of saying "I want to test FA" is narrative you have created for yourself. The have a response that says this. IF they are asking for a salary, they want that salary. Not to go test FA. Is your idea here possible? Yes. But it is far less likely that that what they are saying they want is what they want.

3) You keep skipping the most important part. And that's that player demands fluctuate wildly and with no predictable pattern. THAT's been my whole point in leaving. Ridiculous demands are one thing. I don't like them, but I could probably deal with them. Ridiculous demands that stay that way for some players, not for others, with no appreciable pattern and 40-50% swings in value over small time intervals are completely unacceptable from a competition standpoint. There is no real life analogy to a player wanting X dollars for 6 months, then one day, with no negotiation taking place, suddenly wanting 60% of X dollars.

4) It's not just this. This is a particularly egregious issue that has bothered me for some time, but there are so many little things to where this was enough to say, "Screw it."
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Ted » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:40 pm

Lastly,
So I know I talk about MLB values a lot. I'm not doing that to say the environment should be MLB like. I'm using it because MLB is the best comparison we have. Of course a different economy with a cap will be different. In a capped model, the best players tend to get a higher percentage than in an uncapped model (unless you do other arbitrary goofy things like max contracts.). The second tier players tend to get more than uncapped second tier players. That is because with limited funds to go around, teams will not be a sloppy with giving money to small impact players. However, just because this isn't MLB, it doesn't mean that comparisons are totally invalid, especially since MLB operates at times like a capped league, and, more importantly, they have the same number of wins to go around. There is a reasonable relationship between cost of a win and the win itself. It HAS to exist. Simply by paying dollars for wins, you create this relationship. I'm not saying it's linear. A twice as good player will cost more than twice as much due to rarity.

However, there does not exist a model in which our player demands make sense. That is because, if you paid them even 90% of their initial asking prices, you would need something significantly larger than the total league revenue to cover the costs. I'm not using the word unreasonable as hyperbole. I'm using it because the demands are, in fact, economically unreasonable.

I know I keep saying "two players" but that is to try to illustrate a point. we have 90 million in cap space. To have two players take up 57-58% of that is a nonviable model. We see that is is non viable, because there are elite players sitting around in FA as spring training starts every year now. People keep talking about market forces determining salary. Exactly what market forces are determining that Jared Gillstom be asking for 28 mil per year (after coming down from well over 30)?

It is either, A) none. The game code is broken and doesn't work.

or B) the ridiculous deals people in this league have been handing out have created some sort of feedback loop that is driving up player asking prices.

Either of these is a bad model. Option A is broken. Option B means that they created the positive feedback loop, but never made the negative feedback loop. For every big overpay, there are 2-3 more deals signed that are much more reasonable. Where is that part of the feedback? It's clearly not working, because demands are going up and up and up and up.

Two seasons ago we had 3 55-60 grade catchers sit out the entire year because they NEVER got down to reasonable asking prices. We have UMEBA teams, flush with cash, picking up guys who should be in the BBA because only the UMEBA can afford to pay their demands.

We have evidence that the system is broken. There is not enough money or cap space to pay these players. Not at the prices they are asking for. It would be one thing if they were just a bit over. That would be fine. But they aren't. There are some people arguing that we will just "look" different than MLB due to our different financial system, and we should just let things "Settle out" and accept them for what they are. That argument consistently is overlook the fact that superior players are either sitting out entire seasons, or are going to the UMEBA, because we can't afford to pay them what they are demanding.

Before someone makes the straw man argument that I am saying this should NEVER happen and brings out their one example of it happening in real life, I'd be fine if it was happening every now and then. That's not the case. It's happening all the time. Most of it we don't really see, because we ignore the lower grade guys sitting in FA all year. But they are there. They would only take 1-3 mil to sign, but no one is, because we spent all our money on big ticket items. There are probably 30-40 players that fit this criteria each season. They should be bench bats, or 8th-9th guys in bullpens, or 6th starters. But they aren't. Because there is no money for them.

Listen to that again. Superior players to the ones on your rosters are either sitting in FA or playing in an international league because the player demands are higher than the league revenue and cap structure can tolerate.

That isn't a system that is "different from MLB". That is a system that is broken.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:50 pm

regarding the wildly fluctuating values, that is one thing that has always gotten me with OOTP. I went through it last year with jon reed (he wanted 6/mid 70s for the longest time and then suddenly I was able to get him for a significant discount one sim), and did it this last sim with kinney (he went from wanting 14/year to just under 8). There is absolutely no reason they should do that, but for the new guys that is why you always check your impending FAs every sim.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:13 pm

Yes, I agree that players swing too much in extensions. That's an issue. There's no setting for that. Nothing the BBA can do to address it. Come over to the beta test side, and press your case with the rest of us.

And I agree with Ted that, at least to some extent, I'm putting my own spin on the fact that what we see as extravagant asks as the game's way of sending players to FA. Operationally, that's what's happening, though. We can, as the BBA, chose to reduce the "typical salary" setting from $14M, to, say $8M, and then (if I'm right) players will ask for less and very rarely go to free agency. I think it is fair to say that in OOTP, mega asks are one of the methods the dev team is using to send players to Free Agency, but rational people can disagree with me.

All that said, Ted: I walked away from OOTP for a year or two some time back under some of the same frustrations you're feeling (different kinds of issues, but I'd guess the same feelings). I hope you recharge your batteries and come back.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:55 pm

While acknowledging many of Ted's points, I respectfully note that the argument that middling players are sitting out because we can't _afford_ to pay them does not play out in numbers.

I know that some folks go cross-eyed at charts and graphs, so I'll just say that when I look at our world over the last decade, I'd estimate that our league leaves about $10M per team of our salary cap unspent. So, again respectfully, the argument that middling guys are sitting around in FA because we're out of cash is (again, on the whole) probably not quite right.

I'd think players are floating around for other reasons (not that these are better or worse):

1) We've got a lot of young kids. Why pay a guy $3-$4M when you might get the same results for $500K. This may be the MLB model going on in today's game, actually.
2) We're people with real lives. Sometimes when our team isn't doing so well, we take a step back and just let things run.
3) Established teams often win on $95-$100M payrolls, fueled by young stars. Why replace these guys with more expensive guys?
4) Poor team's budgets (some as low as $80M) constrain them from signing players past a certain level. This is at least close to saying these players should sign for less...but it's not in the vein of a team being unable to sign players because they maxed out on overpaying mega-stars.

And, finally....

So, yes, we have good/useful players in FA. Well...when I came into the league I always had good players available to me in the post opening day FA pool both in the EBA and in my early days in YS. I probably staffed most of my bullpen out of post opening day FA for a few years there. Matt used to post almost an annual note indicating how many great players were out in the free agent pool in May. I think any view that the free agent pool was somehow soaked up in the "old days" is looking at the past with rose colored glasses. I can vouch that at least in 2024-2028 (while the EBA was going on, too), there were easily as many good free agents hanging in the ether as there are now--and possibly there are less now. I don't know. But I don't think teams signing big ticket FA are substantially changing the post-April FA pool.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:20 pm

Just looking at last year:

In the Frick:

- Boise spent $48M on a $106M budget + cash, they had mega-buckets of cash left.
- Hawaii spent less at $36M (on an $80M budget).
- Valencia was at $71M, and they were competing. With a $94M budget and $20M of cash, they could have spent much more.
- Edmonton won the Landis while spending $94M on players

Vancouver and Des Moines spent only $77M, but they had budget constraints (DM $87M, VAN $97M), so they were essentially capped out. Des Moines, in particular also had cash on hand issues, which is why they were selling players.

In the Johnson:

- Louisville spent only $70M on players on a $112M budget + cash on hand
- Charm City $76M with $104M in budget room (and cash)
- Wichita was at $83M on a $120M budget
- New Orleans at $87M on a $130M budget

- That's not counting teams who spent, say, $102M and could have edged in another $4M player if they chose to.



So, no, and respectfully again, I don't buy the idea that middling players are languishing in FA because we don't have cash or salary cap to spend. They are languishing because our GMs have gone other ways for one of many variable reasons. I doubt seriously that if these players had asked for $2M rather than $4.5M (or whatever), that they would have been brought onto teams. Certainly it's possible, but I doubt it.

Putting a Ron Collins meta-spin on it, I'd say this is what happens to older guys. The game eventually tells them that they are done and it's time to go into coaching, broadcasting, semi-pro leagues, or insurance selling. But yes, that's me spinning the game situation into a fiction that works for me.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Ted » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:05 pm

Ron. I have been here longer than you. It is different than it used to be. Also, I just ran an UMEBA team, and you didn't. I signed five players for a single team that were BBA quality. Three or four of them were better than my own backups. My BBA team won 103 games last year, and I signed 3 players for an UMEBA team that could have upgraded my BBA team. That's AFTER Brett played in the UMEBA by himself for most of a season and signed enough BBA caliber players to field 2 or three teams. He's GIVING players away that are better than the AI run UMEBA teams because he signed so many good players.

Yes we have teams not spending to the cap. We've always had that. Yes, those players asking for 2 mil instead of 4 mil couldn't have made a difference. But if they had asked for 3 mil, and teams weren't paying second and third tier FA's 15-20 mil per year, those players would ABSOLUTELY be on teams.

Ron, you don't know what you are talking about.. You weren't here. It didn't used to be like this. Stop saying this is normal when you weren't here. Stop saying you respectfully disagree about things you weren't around for.

You cherry pick the "facts" you like to you to support your arguments, and ignore the ones that don't fit your narrative. You said that Gracia went 21-7 last year and Ramos won a nebraska, so it is reasonable for them to ask for 26 mil. But you ignore that I TOLD you that Ricardo Diaz never asked for more than 17 or 18 million AAV. The Sure fire hall of famer who won FOUR nebraskas. Please explain to me how that is not different? Please explain to me where having the better players ask for so much money that we are using worse players overall is a better system.

You ignore that I'm telling you that we didn't used to have 30-40 BBA caliber players sitting in FA for entire seasons. Acting like there are functional reasons a team should not play better players because of market forces and making other decisions shows a complete lack of understanding of how those forces work. The only reasons teams are making decisions to go other way is because they are FORCED to play inferior players because they are out of cap space.

I mean, that's "A" model. I guess. If you think that's just as good as one where the best players can all be paid to play baseball, well ..okay I guess.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:13 pm

Thanks, Ted.

I was here for the period I talked about. I also agree that the game has ramped up it's asking prices. You pick Diaz, I'll pick McNeill. I suggest we both got those guys to sign extentions for a lot less money in the old days (during those old days that I was here, anyway) than they would have gotten if they'd gone to free agency.

I admit that I don't agree we had 40 BBA guys sitting in Free Agency all year last year. I was looking them over every 2-3 sims. But rational people can disagree on what a BBA quality guy is, I suppose. My main point in the last couple posts was that however many we have, it's not because we can't afford them.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:23 pm

The information I posted above is a direct check on whether teams had cap space available. I didn't know what the answer was before I did it...instead, I read your comment and thought "hey, is that right? How can I find out?" So I went to several studies I'd done in the past and pulled information.

About 30% of our teams had a lot of cap space available, and many other had some cap space available. If the data said only a team or two had space available, I'd agree with you. But looking at real information over the past 10 years says we average about $10M per team available, and looking at last year in detail shows we had space to spend.

I'm sorry. I agree with a bazillion things you've said, but that's not one of them.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by RonCo » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:43 pm

Ted wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:05 pm
You cherry pick the "facts" you like to you to support your arguments, and ignore the ones that don't fit your narrative. You said that Gracia went 21-7 last year and Ramos won a nebraska, so it is reasonable for them to ask for 26 mil. But you ignore that I TOLD you that Ricardo Diaz never asked for more than 17 or 18 million AAV. The Sure fire hall of famer who won FOUR nebraskas. Please explain to me how that is not different? Please explain to me where having the better players ask for so much money that we are using worse players overall is a better system.

And just to be absolutely clear here, for the third or fourth or however many-th time, you are almost certainly right that the game has changed the algorithm to boost what players ask for (as a percentage of that "typical" setting). I 100% agree that RIcardo DIaz asked for less than Luis Gracia is. I was there. I lived it.

So, please don't tell me that I think there's been no change whatsoever because I agree there has been.

What hasn't changed is the fact that, in raw OOTP speak, the "typical salary" setting we use should be viewed as more a floor than an average. If a star isn't getting that kind of number, then they'll sit out rather than play. That's what I mean by "no different." And, yes, I agree that setting is horribly labelled. Again, join the beta bandwagon and we'll be brothers in arms.

Characterizing what I said above as "it's reasonable for Gracia to ask for $26M" is fair enough, but what I think I really said was "it's reasonable to think Gracia would want to go to the open market." OOTP does this in two ways. First, and easiest to digest, is the very few times a player will actually say "I'm going to the market." The second is to price himself out of an extension. Whatever the numbers are, that doesn't feel unreasonable. I can see a human being saying that. But, yes, I also agree with you that OOTP does a crappy job of communicating as if these guys are reasonable.

You see, Ted, this is a frustrating argument for me because I think I vehemently agree with you about 90% of the time.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Fat Nige » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:45 pm

It’s beginning to tire a bit this argument, everyone has made their point and now we are just circling round & round. Whatever the rights & wrongs of the situation it is what it is, nothing we can do to change the situation without months of tinkering with levels, demands and cap.
Imho it is a case of accept it and move on, I don’t know what else we can do? Stop the BBA for ages while Matt, Ron and Ted tinker with every setting attempting what I’ve quite forgotten? Player’s demands are illogical sometimes even in the mythical vaunted MLB, in a league of pixilated fake players why should we expect any different

As Louisville I did have 40 million or so of cap space left which I didn’t spend true enough. I just didn’t think spending 25m on one star would really help my position and the 2-5 million players left just didn’t, in my opinion, do any more than the young 500k players I had assembled. I can’t see the point in spending up to your budget if it doesn’t really improve the team
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Ted » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:05 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:34 am
Ted's angst here is that Gracia and Ramos are not top 20 players, or whatever, and are asking for more than $20M. Which can be a fair argument. But Ramos is 27 and a Nebraska award winner, and Gracia (33) just went 21-7 and led the Brewster in ERA. Is there anything unusual about the idea that they would both want to go to the open market to find out what they are worth? That's what this algorithm is saying to the GM: "blow me away, or you can fight for me on the open market."
Okay, so I did misquote you on this. Sorry.

However you are possibly wrong. You do NOT know this is what the algorithm is saying. This is what you've chosen to interpret it as saying. Given that there is a player response that actually says "I want to go to FA" I think you are probably wrong in this assertion.

The reason I believe you are wrong is because they often ask for the same or even more in FA. A player who wanted to start a bidding way wouldn't price everyone out right at the start. (Unless you have Craig Kimbrel's agent).

As for Nigel being burnt out on this boring discourse,

I'd suggest that if you are tired or the argument, stop reading. I don't mean that abrasively. I mean that Ron will never let anyone post anything that disagrees with his interpretation of how the game works or should work. And will circle back over every statement you make, right or wrong, providing laundry lists of counter arguments that may or may not stay with the point at hand.

Notice how we are no longer talking about how the game is more random in AAV demands than is realistic and that I don't like that much randomness and are back to whether the economy makes sense, because that's what Ron wants to talk about and he will always drive the narrative where he wants it to go.

So my suggestion is that if you get worn out by these arguments, don't read them, because Ron won't stop.

I suppose this is hypocritical, because I don't stop either. The difference in my mind? THIS IS MY FUCKING THREAD. I don't go to other people threads and dominate the conversation every single fucking time. (I have done this. Sorry about Tony Franco, Kevin. Know I know how annoying I can be.) Good to know I can't have my own thoughts in my own thread. Just like I can't write a guide on how I do tings without having my assertions challenged or refuted in my own fucking guide pieces.

Or how I can't try to drum up interest in a player I'd like to trade without Ron ricking apart my valuation of thee player and doing his best to convince everyone in the league that I should give Bryan Robson away or pay someone to take him. you know. A member of the GB actively trying to influence the value of a player on a trade block. That's cool.

If it doesn't agree with how Ron thinks folks, you can't talk about it. Not without starting a war of words in which he always has to have the last word. Or last 1000 words.

Fuck it. I'll just say it. This is a big part of my frustration. And a big part of why I'm leaving. Now, I am a whiny know it all by nature. I make no assertions that I cannot be obnoxious and abrasive. I sometimes have to be right. I get rude. I apologize for all of this.

But this shit is intolerable. I'm truly burnt out with OOTP, and don't like the game as anymore. I'll miss you all, but all I enjoy is the analysis at this point. And since I can't have my own opinions about analysis without having to constantly defend them from attack, there's not much left for me.. I will not miss how this has become the Ron Collins Baseball Association.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by Ted » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:14 pm

I mean, look at how ridiculous this is. I'm arguing in a thread about the reasons I have for leaving a league. I'm not having fun. Maybe I'm wrong about why I'm not having fun. But in the thread about why I think I'm not having fun, I'm being argued with about whether or not I'm right about a game mechanic.

Yes it's silly and stupid of me to even be responding at this point. But why on fucking earth is this even happening?
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by jiminyhopkins » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:19 pm

All I can say is, if there's ever a Ted Baseball Association, sign me up!
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indiansfan
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by indiansfan » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm

Hey that is okay, I wrote Franco's name on my HOF ballot this year anyway.
Kevin

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JimBob2232
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:51 pm

You'll be missed Ted. Hopefully you find something you enjoy to occupy your time. We should all have that. If you feel so inclined, i;ll enjoy your analysis of this league. I would like to give you (and other long time alums) a seat at the HOF voting table (or perhaps even a Veterans committee?).

I think what we were debating is the merits of your concerns as it relates to the other 31 of us going forward, and what we would like to see the GB do about it (if anything). At least my comments were more geared to wards that end than addressing you directly.

But again, we'll miss you. I hope your not a stranger. And if OOTP XXI is your cup of team (or the upcoming OOTP FOF 9), I hope to see you around in a league again some day.

Cheers!

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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by udlb58 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:29 pm

Ted, I am extremely sad to see you go. I definitely wouldn't have guessed that you would leave before me! Having said that, I completely understand. OOTP is far from perfect, especially the way the salary cap is handled in general. It can be difficult to know where you are at in relation to the salary cap as there are different salary numbers on different screens; OOTP poorly enforces the cap in some ways (you can trade for or acquire players off the waiver wire, or call up prospects putting you over the cap) and over-enforces it in other instances (we should be able to have future considerations over the cap, every league in real life allows this, and OOTP only really considers the following seasons in extensions, I've put my team tens of millions over the cap in projected salaries 2+ years down the road with no problem but I can't be even a penny over for the next season). And I've argued that extensions have been broken for a long time. Some players just ask for completely unreasonable money and will never budge, up to the point of even costing themselves tens of millions in lost revenue by not being flexible in extension talks and being let out in the cold in FA when nobody else will pay their ridiculous demand either (then they suddenly drop their demands by a huge amount at some random point between the start of the preseason and middle of the regular season)

I hope Markus and crew shifts focus back to things that matter instead of this Perfect Team bullshit.
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Re: Schmidt Resigns

Post by bschr682 » Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:02 pm

UMEBA doesn’t have the problems you seem to be having Ted. Stay in UMEBA...
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