IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

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IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:26 pm

This is ripe for research and a league feature. Maybe I'll do it sometime, but I have a ton of offseason stuff left to do.

The question is, if your choices were to know CON/POW or EYE/AVK and you couldn't know any of the other batting ratings (sorry Ron, leaving Gap Power out), which would you take?

I know which I would. I'm not sure I'm right, but I think I am. Given that I'm asking this question, I bet you could guess easily what I'm taking. I'd bet a small sum of money I could do better with EYE/AVK than CON/POW. The reasoning is as follows. CON/POW would let me select elite bats easily, but would give me very little on the majority of the players you would have to use. Whearas with EYE/AVK, I could probably avoid a large number of the trap players in the league. Basically, I bet I can do more with knowing how often a guy will walk and strikeout, than I can knowing his batting average and how many home runs he'll hit.

Now, maybe that's not the best combo. Maybe it's EYE/POW, or maybe it's really crazy and it's like gap power/avk. Who knows?

Anyone care to argue something else? Tell me I'm wrong. Tell me your theory.

As I think about this, what I may do is construct a series of polls, give you CON/POW versus EYE/AVK and see who picks who and which players end up being better. I'll have to figure out how to select players in a way that's fair. Hmm. This could be fun.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:32 pm

I love the question.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:43 pm

I'd take CON/EYE or CON/AVK. I frequently have.

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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:51 pm

Okay. So here's the plan. I'll create a pool of players (somehow) and send anyone who wants in on the game the pool. They then have to pick 9 starters and two bench bats. Your list will only include players with the two ratings YOU select revealed. I'll split the pool up into 1B/2B/etc. Then we'll look at the results a couple different ways to see which method works the best. I'm thinking of two lists actually. BBA and standard MLB rosters. The BBA ratings are a bit skewed, so they might have different results. This may have to wait a bit though, because again, I have a ton of other stuff to do.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:57 pm

I'll be in, just to see what happens.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by GoldenOne » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:00 pm

I'm going with CON and EYE. The rest will work itself out.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by jleddy » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:15 pm

Really interesting..would love to see more, Ted.

I immediately thought CON/POW is the better of the two, hands down. I even started laying out my defense but halfway thru, I realized I was wrong...I think EYE/AVK is slightly the better of the two. Here's my analysis featuring comps (I can't help it, I love 'em when used in fictional leagues) and an arbitrary scoring system (RISK is the risk assessment of the player type on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high):

low EYE/low AVK - Yikes. Sure, this could be Willie Stargell but it could also be one of the hundreds of hitters who struggle across the board and dwindle away in the minors. At least this option has the potential to have plus-power that can make its way into a lineup without any other standout skills. Risk: 8
low EYE/high AVK - Is this Tony Gwynn (high CON/low POW) or...well, a low CON/high POW combo with low EYE/high AVK practically doesn't exist. Joe Pepitone, perhaps? Low strikeout hitters with any other plus-skills exist, but they are banjo hitters. Low AVK and a high POW is rare in real baseball but it exists in OOTP, so perhaps it's a profile that can be exploited within the game. A real boom or bust proposition. Risk: 7
high EYE/low AVK - That unknown POW could be difference between Adam Dunn and Tony Phillips. Pre-Moneyball, you could have built a championship team on the sly but now, EYE is just as important of a skill as any despite knowing any other ratings. Risk: 4
high EYE/high AVK - It's almost impossible that his combination doesn't come with another above-average skill. Either you've got an amazing contact hitter in the mold of Tim Raines or, working backwards, a power hitter who is drawing intentional walks. Risk: 2

EYE/AVK total risk: 21/40

Here the breakdown of the CON/POW option:

low CON/low POW - From a strictly offensive standpoint, this is an easy decision: I almost don't even want to roster this player. Even if the EYE is elite, this player is putting up empty at-bats just drawing walks. Facing a pitcher with elite CON and he's going to be hard pressed to get on base. Risk: 10
low CON/high POW - So the average will be low but you're getting some pop. Likely this is a rosterable player. The hidden EYE and AVK ratings will determine whether you have Joey Gallo or Mike Olt. Risk: 6
high CON/low POW - An interesting combination without knowing the two other offensive skills. This combo could range from Wade Boggs (high EYE) to Juan Pierre (low EYE, high AVK) or Bill Buckner (low EYE, low AVK) to mediocre, dime-a-dozen slap hitter who can't make it out of AAA. Risk: 5
high CON/high POW - The lack of drawing walks or propensity to whiff can deter from embracing a hitter with arguably the two most important offensive ratings. At worst you have a player like Ted Kluszewski. Risk: 2

CON/POW total risk: 23/40


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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by bschr682 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:25 pm

its probably dependent on environment to a large degree. If the league as a whole is chock full of power hitters, yea you want the eye guys as they are more rare. If the league is full of walks and no one is hitting homers, you want what little power is available.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by bcslouck » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:58 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:25 pm
its probably dependent on environment to a large degree. If the league as a whole is chock full of power hitters, yea you want the eye guys as they are more rare. If the league is full of walks and no one is hitting homers, you want what little power is available.
This is the best answer to this question.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by felipe » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:31 pm

I vote for power and eye

Which wasn’t an option

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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by allenciox » Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:41 pm

So CON is by far the most valuable hitting rating. Remember that avoidK, pow, and BABIP combine to form CON. So if I could just know one rating, it would be CON hands down.
So there is a fairly high correlation between CON and GAP I have found --- internally the game won't generally generate someone with low CON but very high GAP. So to me... if I had to know two, it would be CON and EYE since they are completely independent in the game mechanics (in real life, someone with low EYE won't get as many good pitches to hit, but that is not directly modelled by the game). But it is close between EYE and POW, they both contribute a lot of info that isn't captured in CON.

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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:07 pm

allenciox wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:41 pm
So CON is by far the most valuable hitting rating. Remember that avoidK, pow, and BABIP combine to form CON. So if I could just know one rating, it would be CON hands down.
So there is a fairly high correlation between CON and GAP I have found --- internally the game won't generally generate someone with low CON but very high GAP. So to me... if I had to know two, it would be CON and EYE since they are completely independent in the game mechanics (in real life, someone with low EYE won't get as many good pitches to hit, but that is not directly modelled by the game). But it is close between EYE and POW, they both contribute a lot of info that isn't captured in CON.
So I agree with most of what you say here, but I think a large amount of the difference is in which players you are looking at. Also, while CON may be the best bet for a single rating, I think it loses some value when combined with others. Sure, a 7 or 8 CON is probably a good player. But what about say 5 CON. Or 6 CON? Yeah, CON/EYE is likely the best. But let's take that off the table and go with CON/POW or EYE/AVK. Which player do you feel is more likely useful? 5 CON/5 POW or 5 EYE/5AVK? I'm not sure here but I think it's the latter.

How about 5 CON/5 EYE versus 5 EYE/5 AVK? Again, I'm not really sure here. I think I'm taking the second one again.

What about 6 CON/6 POW versus 6 EYE/6 AVK? In this case, I'm definitely taking the second one. About half of the CON/POW guys will have no EYE or horrible AVK and be useless. Whereas almost all of the 6 EYE/6 AVK players will be useful in some way. They likely have at least 6 CON, and many will have at least acceptable power, and likely solid gap power.

Okay, so lets take 6CON/6EYE versus 6EYE/6AVK. CON/EYE is probably slightly better, but I bet the margin isn't much. So yeah, while CON is a great single rating, it's really not a whole lot more useful than AVK in a combo with another stat, partially because you mentioned, it has the other ratings baked in a bit.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:29 am

A party of my difficulty with the 5/5 and 6/6 examples is that league average is not the same for each rating. Interesting conversation.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:47 am

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:29 am
A party of my difficulty with the 5/5 and 6/6 examples is that league average is not the same for each rating. Interesting conversation.
This is really a good point. Hmm. Maybe I'm wrong. Like if league average were the same for each, maybe CON/POW wins.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by GoldenOne » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:21 am

I'm sure you guys have done the research somewhere but I feel like the league average for Eye is less than 5 and for Contact it might be slightly above 5. Same with AvK - probably less than 5. So, I would take the 5/5 for Eye and AvK most definitely. Now, if you want to just peg the numbers at whatever league average is for both, then it will depend on what type of players your prefer and what type of team you are building.

League average for all the numbers, I'm still going with Eye and AvK.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:24 am

GoldenOne wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:21 am
I'm sure you guys have done the research somewhere but I feel like the league average for Eye is less than 5 and for Contact it might be slightly above 5. Same with AvK - probably less than 5. So, I would take the 5/5 for Eye and AvK most definitely. Now, if you want to just peg the numbers at whatever league average is for both, then it will depend on what type of players your prefer and what type of team you are building.

League average for all the numbers, I'm still going with Eye and AvK.
I still think I'm EYE/AVK too. Essentially, EYE/AVK gives you K rate and walk rate, more or less. CON/POW gives you average and home run rate. CON/EYE would give you avg and walk rate, which might be superior to K rate and walk rate (EYE/AVK), but probably is similar for a lot of players.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:39 am

Ted wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:47 am
RonCo wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:29 am
A party of my difficulty with the 5/5 and 6/6 examples is that league average is not the same for each rating. Interesting conversation.
This is really a good point. Hmm. Maybe I'm wrong. Like if league average were the same for each, maybe CON/POW wins.
It's still a good question. And the meta-fact is that the answer for me probably depends on the OOTP league I'm in and what I know of their overall ratings. Given that our Stuff ratings have traditionally been high, I'd probably stick with EYE/AVK as a very generic statement...but ratings fields shift in a league, and now that we're on relative ratings detecting that shift will be harder (you'll need to read the stats more, which makes the game fun and separates out GM skills to a bit of a degree).

My overall opinion (which is neither right, nor wrong) is that your original question is great because in the whole world of OOTP there's probably not a "right" answer, but in any one OOTP league there probably is. (Joe's response is a good one to think about in the world of real MLB, for example--but OOTP players, as we all know, are not matched to real life with the exactness required to make it a universal kind of statement).

In the BBA I probably go EYE/AVK, but I acknowledge that it won't be a very good guess. Probably about as good as using RBI as a stat to separate hitter quality. Give me a guy with 125-150 RBI and you can be pretty sure he's a good hitter, but make it 85-95 and your certainty drops to a coin flip or so.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:41 am

I know you ruled it out, but if you give me GAP/EYE, I might do even better than AVK/EYE .... I'd have to think about it.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by Ted » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:42 am

Yeah, the point of this was to have fun thinking about it, and have fun arguing for cases, not necessarily to say who is right.
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Re: IF You Could Have Two Ratings ...

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:42 am

Jim's comments on rating correlations is a useful one, though the results in a league can vary depending on ratings distributions.

One of the beauties in OOTP is that no two leagues are really alike. We are each individual snowflakes, some more alike than others.
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