2039, Rule 5/Winter Meetings/FA Sim #3 Chatter

[recte44]

Friday, December 31st, 2038
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Masahiko Ito to a minor league contract.
Beirut Cedars: Signed free agent RF Gideon Allen to a minor league contract with a $10,000 signing bonus.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent RF Nicky Wadsworth to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Van Willard to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent 1B António Valentín to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Jeremy Wright to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Vicente Sánz to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Pedro Cerni to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Javier Vargos to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent SP Richard Radforth to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent LF Lester Forbes to a minor league contract.
Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers: Signed free agent LF Inês Cloots to a minor league contract.

Thursday, December 30th, 2038
Manama Pearls: Signed international amateur SP Ernie King out of Guam to a minor league contract.

Friday, December 24th, 2038
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Juan Muñóz to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Kazutoshi Ishii to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Ricardo García to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Pablo Vélez to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Júlio Ocasio to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Daniel Castellanos to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Paul Fernández to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF André Gagnon to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Paco Méndez to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Carlos Harper to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Jonah Koller to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Driss Fournier to a minor league contract.
Beirut Cedars: Signed free agent SP Zhong-shu Chu to a minor league contract with a $10,000 signing bonus.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Pedro Pérez to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Paul Laurence to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Richard Ross to a minor league contract.
Beirut Cedars: Signed free agent LF Benito Fuseli to a minor league contract with a $10,000 signing bonus.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Tommy O'Slattery to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Manuel Cantú to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Vincente Santos to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Vicente López to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Harm Boermeester to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Chris Marino to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Eduardo González to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Brody Weston to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Tjakke van Grootveld to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent CF Kevin Cutting to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent CF Steve Wells to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Peter Doggett to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Álex Núñez to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Javier Cuellar to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Lúcio Suaste to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Domingo Contreras to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent CF Wayne Fuller to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Gary Conner to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Burt Dixon to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Lachlan Spear to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Charles Fitchett to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Brad Murphy to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Zachariah Eissens to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Blake Whittick to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Bernie Paterson to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Jack Whitford to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent CF Timothy Pugsley to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Josh Beggs to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Clint Gilder to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Antony Cason to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Vic Okolita to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Zong-ming Yuan to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Arnold Frawley to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Bill Jarvis to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent CF Daniel West to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent SS William Dobbs to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C William Cartwright to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Travis Pugsley to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Alexander Xi to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Nathan Guerin to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Domenic Bourke to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Nigel Rawnsley to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Alexander Moss to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Rich Widdison to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Danny Fallon to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Terence Kay to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Troy Oakley to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Cam Annear to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Luke Haynes to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Cooper Abbott to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Roderick Utting to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Victor Mcquade to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Calvin De san miguel to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Sterling Dempsey to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Brent Anderson to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Ryan Duncalf to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Hal Schwer to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Vinnie Ziersch to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Liam Sweetman to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Tye Rodgers to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Brayden Collyer to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Rob Tibbles to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 3B Leo Brajak to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Richard Sweeny to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Charles Gilder to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Calvin Pride to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C Raymond Waddington to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Domenic Armstrong to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent LF Kyle Chatfield to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent RF Craig Backhouse to a minor league contract.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 2B Jian Sun to a minor league contract.

Tuesday, December 21st, 2038
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent 1B Mauro García to a 2-year contract worth a total of $5,600,000.
Bucharest Balauri: Signed free agent CF Máximo Quezada to a 2-year contract worth a total of $6,600,000.
Bucharest Balauri: Signed free agent SP Xavier Marot to a 2-year contract worth a total of $9,000,000.
Baghdad Kings: Signed pitching coach Ray Schilling to a 2-year, $31,000 per year contract.
Baghdad Kings: Signed general manager Thie Liefting to a 2-year, $137,000 per year contract.

Thursday, December 16th, 2038
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent C William Parker to a minor league contract.
Bucharest Balauri: Signed free agent SP José Olvera to a 1-year contract worth a total of $2,680,000.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Signed free agent SP Juan Jose Eilzando to a minor league contract.
Bucharest Balauri: Signed free agent RP Germão Traado to a 1-year contract worth a total of $1,220,000.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed SP Ramón Garza on the active roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed RP Caleb Benavides on the active roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed SP Ramón Garza on the 40-man roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed SP Ramón Garza on the active roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed RP Caleb Benavides on the 40-man roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Placed RP Caleb Benavides on the active roster.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Released C Ernesto Ruíz.
Cairo Chariot Archers BC: Released C José Peña.

[Ted]

The league asked for them to be less impacful, so here we are.

I'd much rather have this than have five 80 grade prospects in IFA every year. On the other hand, maybe an 80 every 2-3 years and a single 70 most years would be nice. I have no idea how this is adjusted or how hard it is to "thread the needle" with these settings. As I said, this is better than the overkill we've had in the past.

[recte44]

I'll keep playing with it over time.

[RonCo]

At the end of the day, I don't really care much either way it goes. I'll lace 'em up and play, regardless.

-----

From purely realism standpoint, we'd probably want more. But I think that irks people more than it helps...so, yes, fewer is probably best for us.

From a game-play standpoint, though, I'd suggest the ideal is maybe (1) very few random scouting finds, and (2) considerably more IFA of value.

The Logic Behind This: Though I personally like them, random scout finds are not something we as GMs can address, and they are simply gifts from the game. When they go to good teams, it serves to piss people off. Adding more good IFA, however, would likely result in rich teams throwing even more money into them, and then leaving decent players for building teams to get on the cheap. I 100% agree I could be wrong here, but given the rate of burn out for these players, that's probably a system that would, in the very big picture, serve to level the field.

[Ted]

At the end of the day, I don't really care much either way it goes. I'll lace 'em up and play, regardless.

-----

From purely realism standpoint, we'd probably want more. But I think that irks people more than it helps...so, yes, fewer is probably best for us.

From a game-play standpoint, though, I'd suggest the ideal is maybe (1) very few random scouting finds, and (2) considerably more IFA of value.

The Logic Behind This: Though I personally like them, random scout finds are not something we as GMs can address, and they are simply gifts from the game. When they go to good teams, it serves to piss people off. Adding more good IFA, however, would likely result in rich teams throwing even more money into them, and then leaving decent players for building teams to get on the cheap. I 100% agree I could be wrong here, but given the rate of burn out for these players, that's probably a system that would, in the very big picture, serve to level the field.

I'm good with this idea in theory, but the types of IFA classes we've seen doesn't make me think OOTP knows how to make realistic IFA. If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it. (Or if you want to adjust those upwards to account for the fact that OOTP doesn't seem to use scouting grades properly, especially in the BBA's bloated ratings environment, fine, but you get the picture).

I'd love the element of working true IFA's into budget and planning, but what we've seen is small classes that are too top heavy, and all that does is give the richest teams a way (admittedly a weak one that is fraught with uncertainty) to stay rich.

[RonCo]

I'm good with this idea in theory, but the types of IFA classes we've seen doesn't make me think OOTP knows how to make realistic IFA. If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it. (Or if you want to adjust those upwards to account for the fact that OOTP doesn't seem to use scouting grades properly, especially in the BBA's bloated ratings environment, fine, but you get the picture).

I'd love the element of working true IFA's into budget and planning, but what we've seen is small classes that are too top heavy, and all that does is give the richest teams a way (admittedly a weak one that is fraught with uncertainty) to stay rich.

Yeah...it's the "in theory" part that's always a bitch.

Part of the issue is that it's hard to define "realistic" here. A lot of it is gut reaction to player's blue/green bars. Some of it is in the yield.

for example, it's possible (and quite likely, really) that for OOTP to yield IFAs at a rate that would be what we're used to seeing in modern MLB, that there needs to be a LOT of green and blue bars. If that's true, then classes with few blue and green bars will not yield much. If that's the case, then from a league design standpoint we're faced with the question: what part of the process do you want to be more realistic?

[jleddy]

If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it.

This.

[RonCo]

Getting too deep into OOTP neep ... IMHO, this is the core issue for arranging and managing ratings that every OOTP league faces in the end, even those that don't actually realize it.

[Spiccoli]

At the end of the day, I don't really care much either way it goes. I'll lace 'em up and play, regardless.

-----

From purely realism standpoint, we'd probably want more. But I think that irks people more than it helps...so, yes, fewer is probably best for us.

From a game-play standpoint, though, I'd suggest the ideal is maybe (1) very few random scouting finds, and (2) considerably more IFA of value.

The Logic Behind This: Though I personally like them, random scout finds are not something we as GMs can address, and they are simply gifts from the game. When they go to good teams, it serves to piss people off. Adding more good IFA, however, would likely result in rich teams throwing even more money into them, and then leaving decent players for building teams to get on the cheap. I 100% agree I could be wrong here, but given the rate of burn out for these players, that's probably a system that would, in the very big picture, serve to level the field.

I'm good with this idea in theory, but the types of IFA classes we've seen doesn't make me think OOTP knows how to make realistic IFA. If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it. (Or if you want to adjust those upwards to account for the fact that OOTP doesn't seem to use scouting grades properly, especially in the BBA's bloated ratings environment, fine, but you get the picture).

I'd love the element of working true IFA's into budget and planning, but what we've seen is small classes that are too top heavy, and all that does is give the richest teams a way (admittedly a weak one that is fraught with uncertainty) to stay rich.

Still better than that season or two where 4 or 5 teams won the lottery with random superstar IFA finds. TWC was never blessed with one of those.

At least with these guys, if there's more projected good players than average, every team has a chance if they're willing to spend the money.

I'm done going all in with IFA's, every one of them I've signed (with a significant signing bonus) have flamed out. Not one of them will see BBA playing time. I figure I'm better off signing a cheap one and hoping they randomly bump.

[RonCo]

If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it.

This.

And then there's the fact that we use "65" and "80" and whatnot to mean what real scouts say they mean, but they mean something else in OOTP.

[Ted]

I'm good with this idea in theory, but the types of IFA classes we've seen doesn't make me think OOTP knows how to make realistic IFA. If we could eliminate scout finds and make IFA work like real life, where there are over a hundred players and most of the ones signed are 35's-45's with a good number of 50's and maybe one to two 65+ players per year, I'd be all for it. (Or if you want to adjust those upwards to account for the fact that OOTP doesn't seem to use scouting grades properly, especially in the BBA's bloated ratings environment, fine, but you get the picture).

I'd love the element of working true IFA's into budget and planning, but what we've seen is small classes that are too top heavy, and all that does is give the richest teams a way (admittedly a weak one that is fraught with uncertainty) to stay rich.

Yeah...it's the "in theory" part that's always a bitch.

Part of the issue is that it's hard to define "realistic" here. A lot of it is gut reaction to player's blue/green bars. Some of it is in the yield.

for example, it's possible (and quite likely, really) that for OOTP to yield IFAs at a rate that would be what we're used to seeing in modern MLB, that there needs to be a LOT of green and blue bars. If that's true, then classes with few blue and green bars will not yield much. If that's the case, then from a league design standpoint we're faced with the question: what part of the process do you want to be more realistic?

Right, and if you add all those 70's and 80's to gt the green and blue bars, to get the right yield in terms of NUMBER of guys that make it, do you get the right level of talent making it for that group. Similarly, what does adding all that talent do to the existing pool? (Answer: Makes it lump more and younger).

Long story short, OOTP doesn't handle IFA well at all. I'd rather have it make a minimal impact than a bad one.

The other thing to consider is realism versus good competition. Sometimes making the game more real doesn't improve the competitive environment necessarily.

I think it was Joe who noted we're getting much more WAR than MLB out of the draft. That's likely largely because we get very little out of international prospects. But the draft being more reliable in terms of development rate AND generating WAR is a good way to keep restocking the losing teams at a rate that it probably better than real life.

For a pure competition standpoint, I'd say we WANT the draft to be unrealistically good for losing teams. We WANT them to be able to count on it to rebuild.

(Note, this does NOT mean having "Deep" drafts is better. "Deep" drafts actually devalue the draft for bad teams. You want standard drafts, with relatively few top end guys and those guys go early and have a somewhat better than real life chance of developing. "Deep" drafts mean that pick 20 isn't much different from pick 8 and you lower development likelihood.)

[RonCo]

I'm done going all in with IFA's, every one of them I've signed (with a significant signing bonus) have flamed out. Not one of them will see BBA playing time. I figure I'm better off signing a cheap one and hoping they randomly bump.

I'd say yes to this...but my sample size is low. I've had much more success with the guys I get for $500K-$3M than I've seen with the big ticket items.

But (as I'm genetically disposed to doing), I've been capturing off IFA data for some time now. Some day I'll write a "final" IFA study that will gather something closer to reasonable sample size.

[RonCo]

Right, and if you add all those 70's and 80's to gt the green and blue bars, to get the right yield in terms of NUMBER of guys that make it, do you get the right level of talent making it for that group. Similarly, what does adding all that talent do to the existing pool? (Answer: Makes it lump more and younger).

Well. Yeah. Kinda. But it's all tied together with draft classes, PCMs, and current talent levels.

Long story short, OOTP doesn't handle IFA well at all. I'd rather have it make a minimal impact than a bad one.

The other thing to consider is realism versus good competition. Sometimes making the game more real doesn't improve the competitive environment necessarily.

Yes, we're saying the same thing here, but looking at the situation from different directions. If I were a rebuilding team, I think would want a lot more IFA roaming around. That's probably not truly realistic, but the game would be more fun (which is a personal question not everyone would agree with), and there's a not unreasonable chance that this would advantage rebuilding teams on the whole.

I think it was Joe who noted we're getting much more WAR than MLB out of the draft. That's likely largely because we get very little out of international prospects. But the draft being more reliable in terms of development rate AND generating WAR is a good way to keep restocking the losing teams at a rate that it probably better than real life.

I've been doing a LOT of looking at draft classes in the BBA. Joe was reacting to some earlier data that I don't think is quite in context. I don't think the discrepancy is too large on thw whole these days. And I don't think IFA has much to do with it (a bigger influence, IMHO, is something you brought up in a HoF thread: that the injury model in the old days did not limit careers like it does now. Nothing in OOTP will be perfect, but I think the more modern day periods will be much closer to "real."

For a pure competition standpoint, I'd say we WANT the draft to be unrealistically good for losing teams. We WANT them to be able to count on it to rebuild.

This is a comment that could (and has) driven a hundred discussions.

[RonCo]

I've been doing a LOT of looking at draft classes in the BBA. Joe was reacting to some earlier data that I don't think is quite in context. I don't think the discrepancy is too large on thw whole these days. And I don't think IFA has much to do with it (a bigger influence, IMHO, is something you brought up in a HoF thread: that the injury model in the old days did not limit careers like it does now. Nothing in OOTP will be perfect, but I think the more modern day periods will be much closer to "real."

Something, for example, that I wonder about is that that huge spike in 2016 WAR that started the thread Joe was reacting to, was followed by several years of relatively bad draft classes.

[bschr682]

Easy solution. Do away with all IFA and all scouting finds and start 2 more independent leagues and go all crazy with rule 6...

[jleddy]

Easy solution. Do away with all IFA and all scouting finds and start 2 more independent leagues and go all crazy with rule 6...

Recte: "Define "easy"..."

[bschr682]

Easy solution. Do away with all IFA and all scouting finds and start 2 more independent leagues and go all crazy with rule 6...

Recte: "Define "easy"..."

Oh it'll never happen. I understand that. But on paper that's as fair as it gets. Every GM is then responsible for their own scouting...