2038 Farm System Ratings

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2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 12:02 am

Here's a quick update to the Farm System Ratings I posted last year...kinda fun, I suppose. Bottom line for Newbies..."Fangraphs" is a measure of depth, "OOTP" is only the top end.

2038-Farm-Ratings.PNG
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by usnspecialist » Tue May 07, 2019 12:19 am

to the surprise of absolutely nobody, I have the shallowest pipeline.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by ae37jr » Tue May 07, 2019 3:48 am

Went from 30th to third in one year. Confirms that.my rebuild is ahead of schedule. I'm still steadfast on my plan to drag this out at least 5 years. Still need to fix the finances and add top tier talent. But my year one goal of adding a depth of future BBA players is going very well.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by aaronweiner » Tue May 07, 2019 7:06 am

Whoa. Sixth? Cool. I really hope those guys pan out - the end of an era comes when I don't have any cheap players left.

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by bigmike13 » Tue May 07, 2019 7:23 am

Nice to see San Antonio sitting at 3. Hope for the future
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by niles08 » Tue May 07, 2019 8:16 am

Not much hope for the future in Omaha right now based on that. However, I have physically changed a few guys around to different positions to learn some positions and potentially keep them there long term, which I know affects their ratings. For instance someone who is an 80 potential LF may only be a 60 potential 2B and such so that changes instantly. Similar to whoever did that in the expansion draft a few years ago lol.

Anyways...future probably isn't too bright right now in Omaha but we have to simply draft better.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 9:49 am

ae37jr wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 3:48 am
Went from 30th to third in one year. Confirms that.my rebuild is ahead of schedule. I'm still steadfast on my plan to drag this out at least 5 years. Still need to fix the finances and add top tier talent. But my year one goal of adding a depth of future BBA players is going very well.
Your comment about top-tier talent is one of the things I like about using this kind of take at ratings. In light of Ted's recent series on hording talent, it gives you a better feel for where the odds really sit for various franchises (and as Aaron alluded to, shows how Ted's picture of Rockville as a "simple" rise and fall super-team may be mistaken). Here, for example, is another cut at the same data. I plotted the overall scores of each team against only the points scored by prospects rated 60 and above. What results is an interesting take--especially in Brooklyn's, where you've clearly begun by bringing in a huge number of guys who might bump even higher. I ponder if your focus on a "play'em all" strategy is helping to build, too.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 9:51 am

It also shows how CCJ is likely ready to start making a move.

I should note, too, in this year's pass i gently reduced the weighted values of 40 and 45 rated prospects.

I should note, too, after TEd's look into overall ratings vs. platoon shifts, these data wouldn't include those 20-35s who will actually be providing value.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by bcslouck » Tue May 07, 2019 12:52 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:51 am
It also shows how CCJ is likely ready to start making a move.
Probably another IFA spending spree and draft from really gearing up. Players are starting to make their way up the system though.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 12:58 pm

Yep...another season of talent hording and you'll be in the elite lair, assuming nothing untoward happens.

"Nice looking Dragon Eggs you got there," Genius's goon says. "Shame if something happened to them." :)
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by StormZ_23 » Tue May 07, 2019 2:45 pm

17th to 11th in one year. I'm definitely happy with my 2038 draft class and hopefully I can hit top 5 soon.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by Ted » Tue May 07, 2019 3:27 pm

If I called Rockville a "Rise and fall superteam" I misspoke. What I believe I said is that they currently do not have moved towards a model that provides sustained winning. They amassed their current roster through a typical "tank and rebuild" and are a superteam because they made the typical move of augmenting all those young cost controlled stars with expensive star vets. They definitely have the prospects in place to convert their model to one that can win for a long time. But to do so, they'll have to stop making so many moves like trading for Cannon, trading for Martin and signing him to an expensive extension, signing Enrique Gomez to an expensive FA deal, signing Dempster to a huge deal, giving Flores a big extension, etc. You can make maybe 3 of those deals at their current prices without a bunch of young prospects coming in every year, but not all five.

That's really the point. My series is about winning without high draft picks. If you are using a bunch of high draft picks to win, any comparison to my model is really kind of invalid.

And I'm not pooh poohing what Aaron has built or saying it was easy to do. It's a phenomenal team. He drafted well. He acquired the right players at the right time. It's a masterful job.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 3:38 pm

Ok. Sorry to characterize that poorly.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by Ted » Tue May 07, 2019 3:51 pm

RonCo wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 3:38 pm
Ok. Sorry to characterize that poorly.
Sorry to bicker. I'm just picky about details. I honestly had no idea Rockville's prospect pool was that good. Aaron's set up for awhile. There is one other team in the league right now that I think has had enough consistent success to compare to the way I do things, and that's Recte's. His run is far more impressive than mine. There have probably been others in the past. The point here is not to toot my own horn, but to point out that it really IS different to do this without having the occasional suck year (or five) to rebuild your prospect pool with top guys.

And Recte does operate differently than me. He is much more active in trading. But the thing you will notice that's similar to what I do is the parade of middling prospects he keeps bringing in to supplement his team, AND the fact that he doesn't trade away too many of them.

Also, Recte hasn't been as strong in recent years, and I think it's interesting that this basically coincides to the period AFTER the big Sweetworld extension and the Harsnett contract. I feel like he's mentioned how those deals tied him up financially and hampered him, even when the players WERE producing.

But this is getting off topic.

Please keep posting this version of the farm report. It's much better than the game's. And if people pay attention here, they can see how having a strong farm impacts winning. It would be interesting to see some sort of year to year delta on farm rankings and see how that correlates with both farm system rank in 5 years or sustaining success.

For example, can people stay at the top of the rankings? OR does a top five spot correlate well with a much lower spot in five years (once those prospects are playing)?

Or, does yo-yoing back and forth in the rankings lead to more winning than say being 15th every single year.

Which version produces more big league wins?

What about wins for the team that drafted the players versus total wins? What I mean is, do teams with a top systems who probably dump a bunch of talent into the league at once hold on to their future wins as well as teams with consistently middling systems who probably bring players in at a more paced rate and don't run into salary crunch as much?

So many good questions to look at.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Tue May 07, 2019 4:13 pm

Bickering is valuable. :)

I certainly agree that the act of staying on top has a different tool set than rise and fall. And it's a finer edged sword to balance. The risk of those big contracts are something to be worried over and even debated. As I've said before in my own case...signing Chzvez to eh semi-big deal I singed him to was essentially zero risk (since I've built my team to the point that I have a resource called "excess budget" to absorb that loss if I need to...but the McNeill contract was a true risk. Matt's tool set has certainly been trading and churning minor league guys.

The Harsnett and Sweetworld contracts could be part of the reason for Vegas's downfall, but I think the process of running perpetual winners, however, is mostly made more difficult as GMs in the league get better. And GMs in the league get better mostly (IMHO) by other GMs sharing what they've tried and by sharing "true" data...whatever that is. :) Admittedly, there's a lot of sweat-equity it tales to get better, but it helps to have better data at your fingertips. (And education is always the answer!)

And, yes, thanks for encouraging these Farm System posts. I do think they are considerably superior to the game's reports specifically because they tell deeper stories than the "top 100" list.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by JimBob2232 » Tue May 07, 2019 4:41 pm

Hopefully I can stop sucking soon.

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by aaronweiner » Tue May 07, 2019 6:44 pm

I was never going to be able to keep everyone. But, neither the Martin deal nor the Flores deal are franchise killers; the Martin deal is, in my opinion, a straight up bargain. I'll be in some serious trouble in roughly three years from now, at which point my kids are ready to take over or I guess I'll take a huge step backwards.

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by Ted » Tue May 07, 2019 7:04 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 6:44 pm
I was never going to be able to keep everyone. But, neither the Martin deal nor the Flores deal are franchise killers; the Martin deal is, in my opinion, a straight up bargain. I'll be in some serious trouble in roughly three years from now, at which point my kids are ready to take over or I guess I'll take a huge step backwards.
I like the Martin deal as well. I don't actually think any of the deals are bad. Dempster and Cannon are pricey, but fit with what you are doing and where your kids are now. It's more about the fact that long term, it's hard to stay good with that many big deals on the books at the same time, without having top end prospects on min deals or in early arbitration.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by handaspencer » Tue May 07, 2019 9:30 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 6:44 pm
I was never going to be able to keep everyone. But, neither the Martin deal nor the Flores deal are franchise killers; the Martin deal is, in my opinion, a straight up bargain. I'll be in some serious trouble in roughly three years from now, at which point my kids are ready to take over or I guess I'll take a huge step backwards.
Hoping for a huge step backwards #atlantic :D

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by ae37jr » Tue May 07, 2019 10:33 pm

handaspencer wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:30 pm
aaronweiner wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 6:44 pm
I was never going to be able to keep everyone. But, neither the Martin deal nor the Flores deal are franchise killers; the Martin deal is, in my opinion, a straight up bargain. I'll be in some serious trouble in roughly three years from now, at which point my kids are ready to take over or I guess I'll take a huge step backwards.
Hoping for a huge step backwards #atlantic :D
I love how everyone in the Atlantic wont even compete with Rockville. We're like... "ok, do your thing. We'll be over here rebuilding. Let us know when you are done."

In about 3-4 years we'll be the best division in the league again. 4 up and coming teams and the tail end of the Rockville run.
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