2038 Farm System Ratings

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by udlb58 » Wed May 08, 2019 12:53 am

Ted wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 3:51 pm
RonCo wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 3:38 pm
Ok. Sorry to characterize that poorly.
Sorry to bicker. I'm just picky about details. I honestly had no idea Rockville's prospect pool was that good. Aaron's set up for awhile. There is one other team in the league right now that I think has had enough consistent success to compare to the way I do things, and that's Recte's. His run is far more impressive than mine. There have probably been others in the past. The point here is not to toot my own horn, but to point out that it really IS different to do this without having the occasional suck year (or five) to rebuild your prospect pool with top guys.

And Recte does operate differently than me. He is much more active in trading. But the thing you will notice that's similar to what I do is the parade of middling prospects he keeps bringing in to supplement his team, AND the fact that he doesn't trade away too many of them.

Also, Recte hasn't been as strong in recent years, and I think it's interesting that this basically coincides to the period AFTER the big Sweetworld extension and the Harsnett contract. I feel like he's mentioned how those deals tied him up financially and hampered him, even when the players WERE producing.

But this is getting off topic.

Please keep posting this version of the farm report. It's much better than the game's. And if people pay attention here, they can see how having a strong farm impacts winning. It would be interesting to see some sort of year to year delta on farm rankings and see how that correlates with both farm system rank in 5 years or sustaining success.

For example, can people stay at the top of the rankings? OR does a top five spot correlate well with a much lower spot in five years (once those prospects are playing)?

Or, does yo-yoing back and forth in the rankings lead to more winning than say being 15th every single year.

Which version produces more big league wins?

What about wins for the team that drafted the players versus total wins? What I mean is, do teams with a top systems who probably dump a bunch of talent into the league at once hold on to their future wins as well as teams with consistently middling systems who probably bring players in at a more paced rate and don't run into salary crunch as much?

So many good questions to look at.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by Ted » Wed May 08, 2019 1:39 am

Whoops. It felt like I was forgetting someone. Stupid hubris.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Wed May 08, 2019 10:31 am

There have been several very long runs over the league's history...especially if you allow a 1-2 season dip into the mid and lower 80s -- which would not be good enough to fall into the range of acquiring low picks. To some degree, the question is "how long is sustained?"
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Wed May 08, 2019 10:54 am

Huntsville was on that kind of run before Kyle left the time before last. Long Beach is extremely close to being on this kind of run right now. As Tyler noted. Jacksonville is poised to transition into one. Vagas, yes. Matt is the perpetual winning machine. Madison had a dozen season run (or a 25 yr run, depending on how low you'll allow a couple seasons to go. Montreal's history is like Vegas Light. Seattle fell on a couple tough year, but has been a consistently winning team since, sat, 2010. Vancouver had a 14 season run very early (when I'm sure many things were different). And arguably, Yellow Springs is in the process of sustained winning (if you give us the one hard 80 win season, and our other surprise 75 win debacle) since 2026.

I think the "odd" thing here is that you're seeing many of these kinds of teams happening now, whereas in the past you'd only see one or two at a time. My view is that the biggest influence in this is that on the whole our GMs have gotten much better at running these kinds of franchises. Assuming I'm right, the most interesting thing to me is to see what happens when force meets mountain...as I've noted before--sports is a zero sum game, so not every team can successfully sustain winning (whether you call that 88, 90, or 95 wins). Sooner or later, someone has to lose...and if everyone is managing resources to win all the time, someone has to fail. :)
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Wed May 08, 2019 11:06 am

One note, too...teams that sustain winning will never be able to build off low draft picks, yes...but (1) these super deep drafts help us out a lot buy feeding our minor leagues systems pretty well anyway, and (2) big/rich teams have access to the IFA market, which serve as our top level draft picks, but which we can't indulge in more than every other season.

I think that sustained winning (and to keep this on target, developing farm systems) is a little about how you get there (via draft tanking, massing middling minors, trade or whatnot), but is more about how you stay there. The two are linked, of course. But the difference, to me, is mindset. :)
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by Ted » Wed May 08, 2019 12:37 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:06 am
One note, too...teams that sustain winning will never be able to build off low draft picks, yes...but (1) these super deep drafts help us out a lot buy feeding our minor leagues systems pretty well anyway, and (2) big/rich teams have access to the IFA market, which serve as our top level draft picks, but which we can't indulge in more than every other season.

I think that sustained winning (and to keep this on target, developing farm systems) is a little about how you get there (via draft tanking, massing middling minors, trade or whatnot), but is more about how you stay there. The two are linked, of course. But the difference, to me, is mindset. :)
I agree it's how you stay there. But that's the reason I was quibbling over Aaron's team. He's not really "stayed there" yet. He can, but he hasn't done it. I wish the super deep drafts would go away. They just aren't fun to me, but we've been over that again and again.

I do think massing middling minors is a key factor to staying on top, no matter how you get there. I'd also point out that you don't need top picks to get on top. I picked 8th, 7th, and 9th, in my first three seasons. Only one of those players developed and I (stupidly) traded that player to Brooklyn after getting frustrated with age 20 or 21 results. My next three best picks were 14, 17, 19 and only one of THOSE playes generated any wins for my franchise and that was like 3 WAR. Top picks just aren't necessary.

And yeah, IFA can be key, but man is it expensive and the flame out rate is incredible. I think I've spend something like 200-250 million over 30ish players and gotten two good players to show for it. Both pitchers. Never had a batter make it. I also wonder with the super deep drafts increasing flameout rates, is IFA even less reliable now?
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by RonCo » Wed May 08, 2019 1:04 pm

That's something about drafts...I almost prefer not to be top 5 because the flame-out rate is moderately high there. Top 5 is often the land of under-developed blue bars. When they pan out, they're great, though.

Winning on draft picks (including those who hard tank) is actually very risky. We only really remember those that work, but that's how survivor bias is. Valencia, for a BBA example of a team that did not hard tank but has tried to build on very good picks, has struggled for relevance the past couple decades because those great picks have almost all flamed out. That's not Lee's "fault." The development engine can be a harsh mistress. Winning on draft picks, however, becomes even harder when you get a larger collection of GMs who are getting better at squeezing value out of every avenue of horde collection.

I think we agree that the "draft pick your way to winning" actually has a very high risk factor, and unless it's supported by a holistic approach to adding value, is likely to lead to short runs.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by aaronweiner » Wed May 08, 2019 3:40 pm

Lorenzo Palacios was picked at #10. Guerrer at #17. Manuel Marino in the second round (36 overall). Puckett and Flores were both top ten picks though.

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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by njherdfan » Fri May 10, 2019 10:46 am

Pretty awesome ratings, thanks. I guess graduating a lot of my players to the pros has really taken a toll on my farm system.
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Re: 2038 Farm System Ratings

Post by udlb58 » Sat May 18, 2019 9:51 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 10:54 am
Huntsville was on that kind of run before Kyle left the time before last. Long Beach is extremely close to being on this kind of run right now. As Tyler noted. Jacksonville is poised to transition into one. Vagas, yes. Matt is the perpetual winning machine. Madison had a dozen season run (or a 25 yr run, depending on how low you'll allow a couple seasons to go. Montreal's history is like Vegas Light. Seattle fell on a couple tough year, but has been a consistently winning team since, sat, 2010. Vancouver had a 14 season run very early (when I'm sure many things were different). And arguably, Yellow Springs is in the process of sustained winning (if you give us the one hard 80 win season, and our other surprise 75 win debacle) since 2026.

I think the "odd" thing here is that you're seeing many of these kinds of teams happening now, whereas in the past you'd only see one or two at a time. My view is that the biggest influence in this is that on the whole our GMs have gotten much better at running these kinds of franchises. Assuming I'm right, the most interesting thing to me is to see what happens when force meets mountain...as I've noted before--sports is a zero sum game, so not every team can successfully sustain winning (whether you call that 88, 90, or 95 wins). Sooner or later, someone has to lose...and if everyone is managing resources to win all the time, someone has to fail. :)
We have just one player left from that first division winner in 2029 (Hahn), and just 4 left from the 2034 title (Hahn, Noboru, Markert, and Nunez). Hahn's on borrowed time (and I think the transition to Zuniga will be smooth) and both Markert and Nunez's contracts are up this year with no plans of extensions. David Noboru could be the only holdover from the 2034 title winning team to be a 2039 starter. I know pitching is always a question with Jacksonville, and that house of cards can come crumbling down at any time, but I think the transition from successful rebuild (build?) to long-term winning club already happened.
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