Ted Schmidt Thinks the Sky Is Falling and is Ridiculous

[aaronweiner]

Since we’re taking this seriously (and should, in this case), I will note that the obviously over talented pool we have right now is the issue.

Most years are NOT like this in which case the draft and parity are not dead.

Teams at the top of the draft still get what they consider the top talent. So there is still an advantage in this.

And I don’t see enough players in this draft to destroy the league. Even less if half of them lump enough so they’re merely good and not great.

I will believe the sky is falling if the next couple drafts look like this.

Still, some analysis is called for exactly because this pool is so far over the top. We have had occasional drafts like this in the past, though, and at last check we’re still standing.

[ae37jr]

The part that is baffling me about the draft is this...

….there are 3370 players eligible.

A. That number seems too high
B. Does that mean that all the ratings are relevant solely in the scope of the 3370 players in draft? and has nothing to do with current BBA talent.

I don't think B is correct. I always took relevant potential as... pretending the player is at potential and adding that one player to current BBA pool in a hypothetical situation.

But if somehow B is correct, the bloated ratings make sense. Cause then they are not real ratings. They are curve grades compared to other players in the draft.

[recte44]

I think Alan may have stumbled across the source of the issue. I'll take a deeper look into why there are so many players this weekend.

[7teen]

I had a comment typed earlier and deleted it just for the sake of not causing any issues but the 2033 and 2034 drafts were both pretty deep too and things seems fine. I checked and I drafted 10 players that are currently in the BBA from those two drafts alone. I don’t think it was league altering. In fact, I have guys drafted in rounds 15 and 16 from those drafts in the league as well.

[RonCo]

I was in doctor's offices and emergency rooms with my mom and then my sweetie all day. I'll do a little testing shortly. Alan's Plan B is possible. I just don't know.

Either way, I don't think the sky is falling around the league. Rating bloat and fade is somewhat normal...though, yes, we should do our best to understand it--not to Game the Game, but instead to take prudent action if that prudent action is...um...prudent.

[Ted]

Since we’re taking this seriously (and should, in this case), I will note that the obviously over talented pool we have right now is the issue.

Most years are NOT like this in which case the draft and parity are not dead.

Teams at the top of the draft still get what they consider the top talent. So there is still an advantage in this.

And I don’t see enough players in this draft to destroy the league. Even less if half of them lump enough so they’re merely good and not great.

I will believe the sky is falling if the next couple drafts look like this.

Still, some analysis is called for exactly because this pool is so far over the top. We have had occasional drafts like this in the past, though, and at last check we’re still standing.

This was my point, really. This draft is so weird looking that it should set off alarm bells. I of course get long winded and project DOOOOOM, but really the issue is that something seems off, and should hopefully be addressed or at least understood before we have 2-3 more drafts like this.

That's why I tried to say that this is not a question of what type of draft you like, but rather one of league function. I painted a grim scenario because I wanted to make the point that should this draft be the norm, it would be a problem.

You've been around longer than me, Aaron, but have we really had a draft like this before? Guys going in the 20th picks with multiple 10 ratings? If so, it happened before I showed up. But heck, more than half of you predate me.

[Ted]

If you don't want to care about it, that's fine. But don't tell me that giving a shit about the health of the league is "overthinking" or "needless stress". You get to have a league to play in because other people do this.

Matt for example, puts in enormous amounts of work behind the scenes to keep this going. In my time on the GB, there were tons of internal debates about league health and what matters. It's likely a reason Matt get frustrated at times with the amount of bitching regarding changes. Things HAVE to change now and again for us to continue to have a league that is enjoyable.

So respectfully, I disagree with all comments that this sort of analysis is unnecessary.

Wow dude. Sorry to read this.

I do know how much work Matt does. I was at his apartment over 20 years ago helping to create players for the GBC. Known him since 1996.

Disagree all you want. I wasn't concerned about your analysis, I was concerned about YOU. I see now that concern was misplaced.

Oh well. Carry on then.

I misinterpreted your concern. I'm sorry. Thanks for caring about my well-being. Real life stuff has actually been a pretty awful this last week, so I'm on edge, and that's spilling over here while I distract myself with the Brewster. Sorry about that and thank you.

[aaronweiner]

Since we’re taking this seriously (and should, in this case), I will note that the obviously over talented pool we have right now is the issue.

Most years are NOT like this in which case the draft and parity are not dead.

Teams at the top of the draft still get what they consider the top talent. So there is still an advantage in this.

And I don’t see enough players in this draft to destroy the league. Even less if half of them lump enough so they’re merely good and not great.

I will believe the sky is falling if the next couple drafts look like this.

Still, some analysis is called for exactly because this pool is so far over the top. We have had occasional drafts like this in the past, though, and at last check we’re still standing.

This was my point, really. This draft is so weird looking that it should set off alarm bells. I of course get long winded and project DOOOOOM, but really the issue is that something seems off, and should hopefully be addressed or at least understood before we have 2-3 more drafts like this.

That's why I tried to say that this is not a question of what type of draft you like, but rather one of league function. I painted a grim scenario because I wanted to make the point that should this draft be the norm, it would be a problem.

You've been around longer than me, Aaron, but have we really had a draft like this before? Guys going in the 20th picks with multiple 10 ratings? If so, it happened before I showed up. But heck, more than half of you predate me.

No, but 2016 was pretty deep in other ways. We didn’t use to have so many players with 10 contact either, for example, so it’s not a straight line comparison.

There could be some snowball effect going on here.